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Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 12, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the NorthWestern Corporation Year End 2014 Financial Results Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Travis Meyer. Please go ahead.

Travis Meyer

Management

Thank you, Kevin. Good afternoon and thank you for joining NorthWestern Corporation’s financial results conference call and webcast for the year ended December 31, 2014. NorthWestern’s results have been released and the release is available on our website at www.northwesternenergy.com. We also released our 10-K pre-market this morning for any of logging in, in the webcast has a few reports of troubled logging into the webcast. We know that some of you’re logged in but we do have a [default] slide deck as always loaded out on our website as well under the presentation and webcast at westernenergy.com. Presenting today are Bob Rowe, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Bird, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also we have several members of the executive team with us in the room today that are available to ask questions as they come up. Before I turn the call over for us to begin, please note that the Company’s press release, this presentation, comments by presenters and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. As such, I will remind you of our Safe Harbor language. During the course of this presentation, there will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements often address our expected future business and financial performance and often contain words such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks or will. The information in this presentation is based upon our current expectations as of this date hereof unless otherwise noted. Our actual future business and financial performance may differ materially and adversely from our expectations expressed in any forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to revise or publicly update our forward-looking statements or this presentation for any reason. Although our expectations and beliefs are based upon reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ materially. The factors that may affect our results are listed in certain of our press releases and disclosed in the Company’s 10-K, which again we filed with the SEC this morning, and other public filings with the SEC. Following our presentation, those who are joining us by teleconference will be able to ask questions. The archived replay of today’s webcast will be available beginning at 6:00 PM Eastern Time today and can be found on our website at northwesternenergy.com under the Our Company, Investor Relations, Presentations and Webcasts link. To access the audio replay of the call, dial (888)-203-1112, then access code 5259563. Again, that’s (888)-203-1112, access code 5259563. I’ll now turn it over to our President and CEO, Bob Rowe.

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Thank you Travis and Happy Birthday. And we're calling in today from [Sioux Falls] office. I'll start with some recent activities and turn it over to Brian. In November I'm sure all of you know we've completed the purchase of the 11 hydroelectric facilities in Montana with the total of 633 megawatts of capacity and one storage reservoir for an adjusted purchase price of 904 million. And to finance the transaction we accessed the capital market and issued $400 million of common equity, 7.77 million shares of 51.50 share and then $450 million of 30 year Montana first mortgage bonds that have fixed rate of 4.176. Just a word more on Hydro you'll see the photo on the cover of the deck is our Thompson Fall dam and I have the pleasure of visiting [Clark Fork River] in Thompson Falls just a couple weeks ago along with our dam foramen and our account manager on the distribution site. I had a great conversation about how important NorthWestern was for the community and Thompson Falls and reminded me of the long standing community roles that we play in larger city and smaller towns and also I think a really exciting environmental role that we're taking on with the acquisition of the dams and 600 to 700 miles of river front. So it’s been a positive transaction from that perspective as well. Back to the significant activities we have $26.7 million of net income improvement in 2014 as compared with ‘13 and gross margin improvement from energy supply acquisition and income tax benefits that were recognized which was partially offset by higher operating cost. And higher growth transaction expense, we'll come back and discuss that. We have non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $2.68, that’s a 1 -- 7.2% improvement over 2013 adjusted EPS of 250. Our 2014 adjusted EPS with a midpoint of 260 of our guidance range of $2.60 to $2.75. We had an upgrade of our senior secured and unsecured credit rating by Fitch in November and notably a 20% increase in our quarterly stock dividend was announced by Board of Directors and that’s $0.48 per share payable on March 31 of this year. And with that I will pass to Brian Bird.

Brian Bird

President

Thanks, Bob. On Page 5 I show the summary of financial results for the 12 months ended December 31, 2014. In 2014 our net income was 120.7 million or 26.7 million increase over the prior year. On a diluted earnings per share that was in '14 $2.99 which was a $0.53 increase over the prior year. Moving ahead to page 6, I will get into greater detail on the P&L itself. From a gross margin perspective, gross margin was 722.3 million in 2014 which was an increase of 47.4 million or 7% increase over the prior year. We had nice increases in both our electric and gas businesses. Of that 47.4 million, three primary drivers were the 21.4 million increase in natural gas production, 20.5 million in hydro operations and 5.9 million from our electric transmission or OASIS revenues during the year. We did have an improvement in retail volumes and a full year impact of our Montana natural gas rate increase, those were offset by reduced tracker revenues and DSM lost revenues during the year. Moving on to operating expenses on page 7. We had total operating expenses of 544.3 million which was a 40.4 million increase or 8% increase overall versus full year 2013. On the operating, general and administrative expenses they were up about 20.3 million or 7%, the three primary drivers for that increase; 8.9 million increase in natural gas production costs, 5.5 million increase in hydro operating costs and 5.1 million in hydro transaction legal and professional fees. Other operating expenses include a 9.1 million increase in property in other taxes. But a third of that increase during the year was associated with gas production assets and the hydro assets, the other remaining two-thirds primary just increase in methodology from property tax perspective and additional…

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Thank you Brian I appreciate you highlighting 2014, but also taking this back, reminding just how far we came from emergence this is great success obviously for our shareholders but our customers as well. Up continues to more detail around some highlights starting first with the hydro act position which is now complete in late September after a year-long very, very through process, Montana commission issued a final order of proving our application to purchase the hydro facilities and a 633 megawatts from BPL Montana and subject to certain conditions that I'll run through. We've included 878 million of the $900 million purchase price in rate base with a 50 year asset life return on equity of 9.8%, cost of debt of 4.25% and the capital structure 50% debt and 48% equity. That was all to the first year annual retail revenue requirement of approximately 117 million. Commission authorized issuance in an aggregate of $900 million of securities necessary to complete the purchase with the debt portion of the financing to have a term of 30 years and not to exceed 4.25%. A final compliance filing is due in December of this year to reflect post-closing adjustments in the convenience of the Kerr project to the Confederated Salish and Kootenai tribes and that’s to be accomplished with no financial risk to customers and then the actual property tax expenses for the hydroelectric facilities would be including finance filing. We are tracking revenue credits on a portfolio basis to our electric supply cost trackers. We successfully completed equity and debt financing $400 million of equity that’s 7.767 million shares we're issued at $51.50 a share and then $450 million of 30 year first mortgage bonds with a 4.176% coupon. 4.353% if made all in cost of debt including the upfront cost…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Just latest thoughts on potential timing of more net gas reserves and any progress that’s been made with MCC around the test?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Good question, good place to share it. I don’t want to talk about specific project. I know you’re tired of hearing me use the metaphor kicking tires and my toes are getting sore. But there has been actually a significant change since we discussed this last call, and I described the test which essentially requires a showing of net customer benefit over a period of years and higher the price the more immediate have to show that benefit. And the challenge that I’ve described on the last call was essentially, the prices were very low but the curve was very flat, what’s happened since then prices are obviously still extremely attractive but the curve now does show pretty clear customer benefits. So we think this is a much better environment in which to pursue transaction and we’re still kicking tires, but kicking tire with more optimism that we could find transaction at the past webcast.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Thank you and any sense of the timing of when you’re going to need the increment peaking capacity?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

I’d say couple of since there we’ve filed our South Dakota electric plan it’s couple of weeks ago and that’s available online and that identified a need for online capacity in 2019 and there is a couple of year options that but we do have start some -- more serious planning well in advance and that might be around at 15 megawatt, in a number ways you can meet that need. Our folks did meet with the South Dakota commission staff and began decision of the plan. It’s a very positive process working with the South Dakota staff and we’ll expect to get a new [fresh] terms of answers. On the Montana side, we’ll be filing our plan at the end of this year and we expect we will be talking about needs there and as you’ve all probably seen our Montana light load, heavy load chart and our hydro acquisition does help us meet light load for the next several years. But we do have an unmet need for peak and even super peak assets. That’s something that we will be describing to the Montana commission and the plan when we filed that.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

On the South Dakota side did you see in-service in 19?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Yes.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Just kind of from an economy perspective and with slowing and exactly you guys but in the region slowing, new kind of activity oil and gas drilling and ancillary jobs in activity, are you seeing that having an impact on load outlook or what we should be watching externally to see if it has any bring through FX to your folks?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

I think I’ll start and hand it off to Brian. We with good news bad news two years, we were pretty envious that we did not directly serve the Bakken and we kind of rent in South Dakota and certainly in Montana, now we’re not feeling maybe quite so badly about that. We do serve staging area really for the Bakken probably out of those states, but certainly out of Montana in places like billing. And there have been a lot of economic benefits in our service territory as a result of that, that I would say that generally the local economies are little more diverse. And one of the things I actually enjoy doing in January to travel around with the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research attending local economic events. Business, there is a lot diversity and energy in most of our local economies. There certainly are concerns about slowdown in the Bakken and that’s probably translates into not a lot of new activity but what we’re hearing is generally investing projects are much less likely to be effective. And as you get further away from the immediate impact areas again we've got -- we've been saying this for years we’re not flashy but it's steady and there are areas where there is really pretty tremendous growth, Bozeman is starting to look a lot more like both of the Bozeman, Big Sky area looking at a lot more like it did back in ‘06, ‘07 and actually one further comments there we started our DSIP project -- there was the right thing to do. But we started it at a time when we were not racing quite as hard as hard to keep with growth and now all the process and structure associated with their infrastructure program are in place they're working well and it seems that we're much better able to work to accommodate growth for receiving it.

Brian Bird

President

I just add that we are seeing certainly upward pressure on new connects pretty much throughout the system. But as Bob pointed definitely in pockets and places like Bozeman and I don’t want to get people too excited that translate into a lot more growth because this is a utility that has pretty steady growth pretty much broader our economic cycle that we've seen. But certainly encouraged by the new connection information we're seeing in '14 and continued in '15.

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

And any of you want to build or bisecting homes now it’s the time do and we guarantee you high quality affordable service.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

I guess your next question on bonus deprecation, what should we think about as far as the effective bonus this year both in the cash flow and then from an effect on the tax rate maybe this year out as you expect that cash were turning higher.

Brian Bird

President

I think we see from a bonus perspective obviously is such [indiscernible] back to '14 and we saw the pick up there and since we didn’t consider that our guidance, we excluded as we discussed. We're doing anticipate much of a benefit of course as any bonus on a going forward basis. And quite honestly Dan I kind a wish government will quit doing bonus on going forward basis.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Is it affecting the rate base and where we should be pay attention to or is it kind of small enough giving you tax position, we don’t need to think about it?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

I don’t think you need to think about on an ongoing base.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

And then just going back to the gas reserve conversation as you get them more comfortable with the test [indiscernible] line is to process when we could see kind of an agreement on a new map behind benefit. And then progression to perceptively announced projects and when those go to into rate based?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

I don’t think we need any new map with the curve if it is right now; this is a significant change from last fall. We think we are going to be able to do transactions that pass the test as it is. So that past challenge now is just moving forward and identifying projects and closing on it and then we bring those that initially through the existing gas frackter mechanism.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Would you really mind if you didn’t get that $100 million committed this year that will be a disappointment now.

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Not the per unit prices for gap per share are much lower. But we view this is an ongoing process and we would certainly would expect that there would be a number of different transactions over a period of time.

Brian Bird

President

I'd to add to that Dan is obviously there is an expectation that gas prices stay low. But from our perspective we've seen changes and how the curve works obviously the stop pointing out this would be an attractive. So I have to say that we'd be disappointed and not be one thing and we disappointed of things change with gas prices going up or they curve changing at us, I guess that’s great answer to that.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

So the shape of the curve was where you guys get the confidence relative to where you're seeing reserves for sales factor lease after difference.

Brian Bird

President

Yes what I think in fairness Bob commentary on kicking tyres and always have to have a willing buyer and a willing seller at a reasonable price and that’s still something we need to consider.

Dan Eggers

Analyst

Are you finding people with this downturn and some cash insurance in the [MP] will be finding more interest in folk cutting deals and they were say six months ago or is that climate similar?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Probably don’t want to comment on that.

Operator

Operator

Over next to Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead.

Brian Russo

Analyst

Most lot of my questions have been asked and answered. But I was just curious since you stress in regional economy. What should we kind of assume in whether normalize low growth or customer growth?

Brian Bird

President

At this point in time until we see that translate to any changes I'd continue to expect to see kind of 1% customer and lower growth as overall metric Brian.

Brian Russo

Analyst

Okay great and then you mentioned some keeping capacity that you might need in Montana. Can you quantify the amount of capacity?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

That should probably wait until after until we have worked through the plan. What I would say in addition to that I think I have mentioned our intent to do this before but we are undertaking kind of an optimization study of our Montana fleet and I think that's the first project to complete. So we understand what the fleet looks like operating together, what the opportunities are there and then that's quite point of several inputs into a Montana electric plant.

Brian Russo

Analyst

Would the unrecovered portion of David Gates as it stands now, did that feel the need for peaking capacity and are you going to include that in this optimization study?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

I can't answer the question about outcomes from this study but yes Dave Gates is along with the other Montana facilities is included in the study, yes.

Brian Russo

Analyst

And then when will that be filed and made public?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Well the optimization study is something that we're doing internally because we even want to know what the total set of values is that we can achieve through the fleet. The Montana resource plan will be filed before the end of this year.

Brian Russo

Analyst

Okay. And do you mind commenting on any capital markets or external capital lease for this year?

Brian Bird

President

Yes Brian I think it's -- in fairness we talked about our capital slide that we've shown in the past and on that slide pretty much talked about what we can finance this plan without any equity needs obviously if we were to do something with gas reserve standpoint that can make things a bit lumpier and we may need to have some equity to help finance that. I guess I would go on to say from our perspective always there is an opportunity for us to do some things on the debt side to kind of balance out our capital structure and we typically look at refinancing opportunities and things like that. So from a total capital markets perspective that runs the gamut.

Brian Russo

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly on the impairment that you are doing on the David Gates on a quarterly basis. Hypothetically if FERC chooses not to rehear the case, would that trigger an impairment or would it not because you will likely appeal in the Court of Appeals and then therefore?

Brian Bird

President

I would say that Brian if they didn't hear it or if there was a negative outcome from the rehearing that doesn't help, so that doesn't necessarily result in impairment at that time as we continue to evaluate this on a going forward basis and obviously the optimization Bob’s talking about, something that we believe should help us mange to do that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We go next to Brian Shin with Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Brian Shin

Analyst

I am sorry if I missed this in the earlier prepared comments as I missed a part of the call. But is there a schedule out for the South Dakota rate case or can we get a sense of key dates coming up between now and interim mid '15?

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Just to recap that a bit and there is some information in the deck on the South Dakota filing. Interventions were due last Friday there were I think four interventions from industrial customers there is no procedural schedule yet.

Brian Shin

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then on Montana I know that there was some though of -- thinking about going in for rate case sometime in '15 or late '15 maybe '16 any better sense of timing as to how you are thinking about the timing of that process?

Brian Shin

Analyst

We really can't comment on that right now, no.

Brian Shin

Analyst

Understood.

Brian Shin

Analyst

Brian here, I would add on that is, we have said on earlier calls you might not have participated on those but we do typically view at the end of each year as we evaluate and where we have come out as we don't anticipate based on what this year's come up based on 2014 test year, we will be filing -- we will not be filing in Montana this year where we're obviously in the South Dakota case. We won't know when we would file next in any jurisdictions probably until this time period it maybe even up through into April of 2016.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And there are no further questions at this time.

Bob Rowe

President and CEO

Okay. Thank you all for your interest; look forward to seeing some of you at conferences over the next couple of months. And we will be speaking again next in April.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen this does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation.