Earnings Labs

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 31, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Newell Rubbermaid's fourth quarter 2007 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being webcast live at www.newellrubbermaid.com on the Investor Relations home page under events and presentations. A slide presentation is also available for download. A digital replay will be available two hours following the call at 719-457-0820. Please provide the conference code 2663504 to access the replay. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Ron Hardnock, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Hardnock, you may begin.

Ron Hardnock

President

Thank you and good morning. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that the statements made in this conference call that are not historical in nature are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees, and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied. For a listing of major factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, please refer to our most recent quarterly report on form 10-Q, including exhibit 991. We will also be referring to non-GAAP financial measures on this call. A reconciliation of these financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP is available under the investor relations section of our website at newellrubbermaid.com. Let me now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Mark Ketchum.

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Thank you, Ron, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter 2007 earnings call. I'm pleased to report that our fourth quarter and fiscal year results were in line with our previously related guidance. I've said many times that full year results provide the most useful gauge of how our transformation is progressing. Looking over the past two fiscal years, we are proud of the success that we have had driving the growth trifecta every quarter, higher top line sales, gross margin expansion and higher operating profit. Since 2005, we have delivered 4% average annual internal sales growth, taking gross margin from 30% to 35%. We have achieved over $200 million in operating income improvement, increased normalized earnings per share about 46%, and delivered over $600 million in annual operating cash flow. Our significant gross margin expansion is fueling investments that we are making to build our long-term capabilities and achieves sustainable growth. As we look forward to 2008, we expect to deliver this growth trifecta once again, even in the face of the difficult economic environment. I'll talk more about our outlook later in my remarks. In 2007, total net sales rose 3.3%, led by significant growth in our Home & Family, Rubbermaid Commercial, Office technology and international tools business. Gross margins for the year expanded 185 basis points to 35.2% sales, driven by continued strong productivity and mix. We are pleased to note that we have achieved the 35% gross margin milestone in two years, one year ahead of our original schedule. Excluding charges, 2007 earnings per diluted share were $1.97, compared to $1.88 in the prior year. When we exclude one-time tax benefits from both periods, normalized EPS was $1.82, a 20% improvement over the previous year. Operating income improved 14% to…

Pat Robinson

Management

Thanks Mark. I'll start with our full year 2007 income statement on a normalized earnings basis. Net sales for the year were $6.4 billion, up 3.3% last year with foreign currency contributing approximately 2 points of growth for the year. For the second year in a row, all segments delivered positive growth. This year's sales increase was led by high single-digit growth in our Home & Family segment and mid single-digit growth in Cleaning, Organization & Décor. Domestic sales were up 50 basis points. Our international businesses grew by 12% for the year. Gross margin for the year was $2.3 billion or 35.2% of net sales, representing 185 basis points expansion versus 2006. Ongoing productivity initiatives, savings from Project Acceleration and favorable mix drove the improvement, with pricing offsetting raw material inflation for the year. SG&A was $1.4 billion for the full year, up $84 million the last year. Brand building investments in all of our segments and other corporate initiatives including SAP and shared services drove the increase. Savings from Project Acceleration and other structural overhead reductions partially offset these investments. Operating income for the year was $826 million or 12.9% of sales, an improvement of $103 million or 14% the last year, driven by higher sales in gross margin improvement, partially offset by the increased investment in SG&A. Interest expense was approximately $28 million lower than 2006, reflecting the reduction in debt year-over-year and slightly lower average borrowing rates. The company's continuing tax rate was 29% for the year compared to 28.4% last year. In 2007, the company recorded approximately $41 million or $0.15 per share in period tax benefits compared $103 million or $0.36 per share in the prior year. Normalized EPS for 2007 was $1.82, about 20% higher than last year's normalized EPS of $1.52 a…

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Thank you, Pat. Before providing my summary comments, I'd like to highlight the recent addition of Domenico De Sole to our Board of Directors. He is the Chairman, a fashion retailer in Tom Ford International. He was previously the CEO of Gucci group. Domenico brings extensive global marketing, retailing, and operations experience to the board and will contribute significant expertise as we execute our premium brand strategies worldwide. So, in closing, 2007 marked the second year of our transformation into a best-in-class consumer branding and marketing company. We are very proud of the progress we have made in developing our brand building capabilities, improving our cost structure, coming together as one company, and creating a culture of excellence, while delivering all the financial commitments that we made. In 2008, we look forward to building upon the foundations laid over the past two years. We remain confident that the diversity of our portfolio businesses and the growth levers in our control will enable us to continue to deliver on our financial commitments; driving top line sales growth fueled by continued investments in new products and brand building activities, delivering gross margin expansion, the ongoing benefits of higher productivity, improved product and channel mix, and growing operating income and EPS. Lastly, we will continue generating strong cash flow, which will support our dividends and help finance strategic acquisitions. We faced a more challenging economic environment than anticipated six months ago, or even two months ago, but you should know that we have developed comprehensive contingency plans to enable us to meet our EPS targets. We have flexibility on our investment decisions, and we have implemented certain austerity measures to enable continued earnings growth. Our disciplined approach to business planning achieved the healthy balance between driving current year results and continuing to invest in the company's long-term success. As always, we thank all of our shareholders for their continued support. Thank you for joining today's call. And I'll now ask the operator to open up the lines for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Chris Ferrara with Merrill Lynch.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Hey, guys, I was wondering if you could talk about the comprehensive contingency plan you just mentioned, and in that context also, can you elaborate a little bit on your plans for strategic SG&A as you get into 2008? I mean, I understand, they are half reinvestment rate, but is that all strategic SG&A and just a little detail on the contingency? Thanks.

Pat Robinson

Management

Okay. Well, let me start with the contingency then. I guess the best way to think about is -- first of all to begin with our previous sales range was 3% to 5%. So, I think that we already had plans to deliver on our EPS numbers, even if we are at the low end of that range of 3%. So, now we had figured out, how to do that if we will fall close to 2%, and we are able to do that by doing a couple of things. The kinds of our security measures that I talked about are the things you would expect probably any company to be doing things like reducing our travel and entertainment expenses, delaying new hires, and also I got to pay at that certain variable. SG&A expenses are in fact related to sales. So, sales commissions and bonuses are obviously also down a little bit when our sales numbers go down. The other thing, you guys know, is we actually had started anticipating this at the end of last year, and so we really had ramped up some of the activities to try and drive down structural SG&A towards the end of last year, and we'll reap some of the benefits of that in the first part of this year. And lastly, our strategic SG&A spending is something, as I said, we have some flexibility on: flexibility on timing to see how the year develops; and flexibility in terms of how much we invest behind any given initiative. So, we can do a little bit of a pay as you go. And again, that's not something that's news to you. I have talked to you about that before. On the second half of your question, Chris, which was the reinvestment, the answer is yes. All that reinvestment will continue to be on either brand building or long-term capability building for the company.

Pat Robinson

Management

Even more of the increase, if you will, is strategic spend, because we do have some savings really through from Project Acceleration and some of the austerity measures that Mark has mentioned. We even have about $60 million of savings from Project Acceleration for the year. Anywhere from a quarter to a third of that will be on the SG&A line.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Thanks. And then, just with respect to the two to three you are now talking about, I guess, and the one to two points you had originally said was hitting you from a macro perspective, I guess, just if you can give a little color on how comfortable you are now with the two to three and is that one to two really a pressure or really two to three now? And then, also, as it relates to sales, I guess the European business in the quarter was down 1.3%, I guess, on a local currency basis. And I just want to understand if that's something that's going to be driving growth internationally? What does that give you with the decline this quarter, and why does that get better?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Well, let me go to your question. You had asked about 1.5% to 2% drag that we had talked about before. Yes, that's clearly going up. It's 3% or 4% versus what it would be if we were in a more normal economy. And so, that's what we've had to accommodate for. The answer is we are still confident of our ability to hit two to three in that environment for a number of reasons. One, and I gave you the example during my statements on office products, but it's true across the board. We really have an increased level of new product launches. Second, we are continuing to make investments in strategic SG&A brand during SG&A. We haven't pulled back on our investments in those launches, and, in fact, will continue to reinvest at a higher rate during the year. Third, there is growth outside of the US. Those continue to be stronger than it is in US. Again, it's not just economy dependent over there. I make the point, and continue to make the point, that in many cases we are expanding in the new geographies or new product segments for their brands. So, a lot of the growth is coming from expansion in the new markets, be it a new market, meaning geography or a new market, meaning a new product segment. And, that's why we were confident of our ability to grow internationally at a robust rate last year. And lastly, 2007 was affected by some of the service issues that we had related to our office products restructuring projects, and those were one time that shouldn't repeat this year. So, we'll get a year-over-year help from that.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Budd Bugatch with Raymond James & Associates.

Joe Herrick - Gutterman Research

Analyst · Raymond James & Associates

Yes, this is actually [Joe Herrick with Gutterman Research]. A couple of things for you guys. Mark, regarding our operational improvement initiatives for 2008, what are maybe the top initiatives regarding Lean manufacturing, keeping into Six Sigma? What effects do you see benefiting the bottom-line?

Pat Robinson

Management

Well, our normal pricing initiatives that we have been reading through, yes, roughly we'd get about 3% productivity. We expect that same type of read-through in '08. There is a little more pressure I will say, though, from your buy-in than it was in the past. For example, growth rates are down a little bit, but we expect it to close at that 3% range.

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

The other thing that I've mentioned on previous calls has been the effort we're also putting into getting similar kinds of productivity level out of our supply base. So, as we transition from being a manufacturer to more of a source model for a lot of our goods, we are now implementing those same kinds of techniques: Six Sigma, Lean and so on, and teaching our top strategic suppliers those capabilities as well. So, we can expect that kind of ongoing productivity out of that supply base.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bill Schmitz with Deutsche Bank.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Hi, guys. First, this guy, Joe Gutterman; every conference call this quarter, he logs on with somebody else's name and asks these crazy efficiency questions. Going forward, keep in mind that you just disconnect him when he dials in; this is like the sixth call in a row he has done that. It's really annoying. That's the best practice going forward. Why do you think the commercial business is going to be so strong next year if some of your employment numbers aren't so hot?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Well, because again, one, it's a robust innovation. Two, we continue to expand into new categories. And, I think, it's not just dependent on new constructions, but there is a lot of obviously repeat business and upgrade business. A lot of our products that we have done, they are products that are strong efficiency play, so they allow you to clean a laboratory or an office building or an operating room more efficiently and more effectively. And those kinds of things play well in this current environment. So, that business just continues to be extremely strong, and we don't see that changing, because we're doing more of the same.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Great. And that business is well above the corporate average in terms of margin, correct?

Pat Robinson

Management

It is above the average. Yes.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. Great. And then, can you sort of talk about the composition of sales growth next year. If you'd break it down between volume price mix and currency?

Pat Robinson

Management

Well, currency is about 1 point given the current rate that they've just put there, or it's assumed that they'll remain there. Pricing is a bit of moving target because the inflation keeps moving on us and gain higher, but you can expect the pricing to contribute close to a point, also pricing for the year.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. So one, one, one to hit the high-end about.

Pat Robinson

Management

Yeah.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. Great. And how about the dollar amount of input cost pressure next year?

Pat Robinson

Management

I am sorry.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

The dollar amount of input cost pressure, could you quantify that?

Pat Robinson

Management

As far as raw material?

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yeah.

Pat Robinson

Management

Again, it's a bit of moving target. It's about twice what we foresaw in '07 at the current resin cost that we are predicting. And, so it will be -- it could push a $100 million, if resin costs stay high.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. Great. And then, I've noticed that Staples are doing this 20% rebate thing, is that being paid by them or the manufacturers kind of subsizing that, or how does that work?

Pat Robinson

Management

I honesty don't know. I mean, I can't tell you. As far as I know, we're not paying it.

Bill Schmitz - Deutsche Bank

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. All right. Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Patrick Trucchio with BMO Capital.

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

First question, what is the level of Newell products at retail?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

The level of Newell products at retail?

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

Yeah.

Pat Robinson

Management

For the inventory levels

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

I am sorry, I mean, are there any categories where retailers hold too much inventory that would kick a few quarters to sell-through?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Just to make sure I understand. So you're not asking what's the split between retail and commercial or B2B in our product lineup, you're asking what kind of inventories our retailers holding? Is that--

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

Yeah. Exactly.

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

I guess the best way to say, I mean, that's impossible to answer on an average basis for the company because it varies so much by category and customer. But, I guess the question you are asking is, what do we see on the horizon in terms of inventory changes affecting sales? And, what we can tell you is that our inventories at key retailers are actually a little more healthily positioned, I mean a little bit lower than they were starting the 2007 year. So, we don't anticipate any sudden moves. But having said that, we're always aware and, obviously, paying attention to that. So long story short, nothing on the horizon that we would know that we're concerned about.

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

Okay. Great. And then, office product sales were a little better than we saw it. What was the balance between US and International growth there? And is the inventory adjustment in US superstores done or does that have another quarter or two to go?

Pat Robinson

Management

I'm looking at the breakdown right now as the split between North America and --

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Can I have your question again, that's one that we continue to follow closely, but we think the majority of that inventory takedown has been done.

Pat Robinson

Management

And North America was down about low double digits for the quarter. So international was relatively flat.

Patrick Trucchio - BMO Capital

Analyst · BMO Capital

Okay. Thanks very much.

Pat Robinson

Management

Yeah.

Operator

Operator

And your last question is a follow-up from Chris Ferrara with Merrill Lynch.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Hi. Thanks, guys. I just wanted to ask about the office products margin right, so, up about 324 basis points, something like that. That's despite a really, really tough sales and volume quarter. I mean, so how do we think about that going forward, I mean did you just feel the tightening in a really big way or were there really some significant structural changes that would force us to expect that kind of margin going forward?

Pat Robinson

Management

Well, you know we have done a lot of the work in product sales ratios in office products. So, we are seeing some of that benefit in our gross margin line. And, they did tighten out in the fourth quarter, given the softness they saw in the sales. So, we do expect their margins to continue to expand in '08; property margins here, despite what we think, are going to be a tough environment especially here in North America.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Can you give me an idea roughly of that 320 or so, how much of that was gross margin, I mean like a third, a half or less than that?

Pat Robinson

Management

I'll tell you why, if you give me a couple of minutes, I can because I got another to…

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Yeah. That's fine. That's perfect. And next question, this one I think you two will catch on if it's going to help you, but a couple of things related to cash flow, right. So, I mean the quarterly cash flow was at the low end of what you guys had expected.

Pat Robinson

Management

Right.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Obviously, inventory is up, like 10.5% or something in the quarter. And, looks like your '08 cash flow guidance calls were probably slightly down cash flow. What's -- is there something going on there that we should be looking for?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Quarter four was affected by -- our inventory levels were high and that was really related to, again, the takedown in sales that we saw in mid-quarter in office products. Okay. And, we just couldn't adjust our manufacturing and sourcing enough to get that inventory out of the system. So, it really is a reflection of that. As far as 2008 is concerned, our spending on restructuring will be double what it was in '07, so we spent roughly $50 million in '07, and we'll spend roughly a $100 million or so in cash restructuring in '08. So that's why it's down slightly year-over-year. So, we were 50ish in operating cash flow in '07, the midpoint of our guidance is 625, and if you adjust $50 million delta of that. In restructuring cash spend; we are absolutely up about $25 million.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Got it, that's helpful. And since I guess in the last question, I'll beg you guys again, if you don't mind. On the international top line, I guess you just said Office was flat internationally and again Europe is down 1.3 for the quarter. I mean, what's going on there, are there particular businesses in Europe that are weak right now or are there some that are doing exceedingly well, I know, it was on. Can you just give a little color on the landscape?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

Overall, we expect another good year in Europe in total next year, and I think it will be above the average growth rate for the total company. I kind of look at across the businesses; Rubbermaid Commercial continues to be strong there, our Tools business continues to grow there, and a lot of that is expansion into new geography especially in our Industrial Tool segment. We are investing continually in growing our technology platform, so we're making continued SG&A investments in building that out across the region. But, Teutonia helping us on our baby and parenting business. So, we anticipate that it will be an above average grower relative to the company's total growth rate.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay. Then I guess, just more specifically why, I guess, what didn't work this quarter, like why was Europe down 1.3 ex currency?

Mark Ketchum

President and CEO

I don't know that -- I don't have -- I can't give you a detailed answer for that.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay, thanks.

Pat Robinson

Management

Hey Chris, about three quarters of the margin expansion is gross margin in Office.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

That's huge, okay. So, I mean, that would speak given you probably had some very negative variances on manufacturing this?

Pat Robinson

Management

Again, where productivity leading through, the mix was favorable as our technology business is actually still doing -- pretty doing well and has great margins compared to our traditional office business. And, they are the main drivers that have mix impact, as well as the productivity.

Chris Ferrara - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Got it. Thanks a lot, guys. Sorry to be such a question on.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. If we were unable to get to your question during this call, please call Newell Rubbermaid investor relations at area code 770-407-3994. Today's call will be available on the web at www.newellrubbermaid.com and on digital replay at area code 719-457-0820 with a conference code of 2663504 starting two hours following the conclusion of today's call and ending February 14th. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.