Earnings Labs

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 31, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Newell Rubbermaid Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After a brief discussion by management we will open up the call for questions. Just a reminder today’s Conference will be recorded. Today’s call is being webcast live at www.newellrubbermaid.com on the Investors Relations homepage under Events and Presentation. A slide presentation is also available for download. A digital replay will be available two hours following the call at 888-203-1112 or area code 719-457-0820 for international callers. Please provide the conference code 4524394 to access the replay. I will now turn the call over to Nancy O'Donnell, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. O'Donnell you may begin.

Nancy O'Donnell - Vice President of Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning everybody. Welcome to our second quarter 2008 earnings call. Joining me today are our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Ketchum and our Chief Financial Officer, Pat Robinson. As usual Mark will be discussing the highlights and progress for the quarter and pat will follow with details on our financial performance and outlook for both third quarter and full year 2008. Following prepared comments we will be happy to take your questions. A couple of items before we begin, first, let me remind you that the statements made on today's call that are not historical in nature are forward-looking statements. As such they include risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking-statements. For discussion of specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially please refer to our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the related exhibit 99.1 as well as the forward-looking statement information on the earnings call presentation which was posted earlier this morning on our website in the Investor Relations section. We will also be referring to non-GAAP financial measures on the call. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP is also available on our website. With that covered, thank you. I will now hand it over to Mark.

Mark Ketchum - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Thank you, Nancy. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us on our call today. Our 2008 second quarter was certainly eventful, as all of you are aware we are living in some extraordinary economic times. We have soft consumer spending in several US markets exaggerated material cost inflation, insured events and uncertainty in the financial markets. Despite the challenges, I’m proud with the progress that we are making on a number of fronts. To be clear we are not happy with our 2008 outlook. For 2008, it’s not indicative of our underlying strength or our future potential. We are a much better today than we were three to four years ago and with the actions that we are taking I’m confident we will emerge from today’s difficulties, even better positioned to win in the future. To begin I am pleased to report Newell Rubbermaid previously announced guidance for the quarter. Total net sales rose 7.8% eclipsing high end of the guidance range we provided on the last call. Internal sales, which exclude the impact of major acquisitions rose 3.2%, slightly above expectations as a result of favorable currency exchange rates. Growth drivers during the quarter included double-digit internal sales increases in Rubbermaid Commercial products, Rubbermaid Food businesses and our international business as far as high single-digit internal sales growth in our baby and parenting in the EU. These strong results more than offset expected sales decline in our North American writing instruments and tools part of the businesses but weak US economy continues to be a challenge. Our overall solid top line performances validate our strategic focus on investing in innovation and building brands that matter. In fact, the strategy is even more important in a tough economy. Consumers are shopping for superior value and performance and many of…

Pat Robinson - Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Thank you, Mark. I’ll start with our second quarter 2008 income statement on a normalized basis. The net sales for the quarter were $1.8 million up 7.8% over the last year and above the high end of our guidance of plus 6% to 7%. Internal sales which exclude the impact from the technical concepts Aprica acquisitions increased 3.2%. Foreign currency balance approximately 3 points continued strong growth in our international business and positive pricing more than offset softness in our domestic tools and hardware, office products, and the core businesses. Our international business increased approximately 17% in total and 6% in local currency. Our domestic business was down about 1% for the quarter. From our business year perspective, double-digit growth in our Rubbermaid commercial, Rubbermaid food and European and Asia Pacific office products businesses and high single digit growth in our baby and parenting essential business lead the sales improvement for the quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was $623 million or 34.1% net sales, about 60 basis points lower than prior year. Improvements from ongoing productivity initiatives, savings from project acceleration and favorable pricing are more than offset by significant inflation in our raw materials most notably oil and natural gas based resins as well sourced finished good. SG&A was $393 million for the quarter up $36 million in the last year. Incremental SG&A from acquisitions, currency transmission and continued brand building investments drew the increase. Operating income of $230 million or 12.6% of sales was down $18 million or 7% the last year. Interest expense was $11 million higher than the previous year as a result of the additional borrowings used to fund recent acquisitions. The company’s continuing tax rate was 28.5% compared to 29.5% last year. Normalized EPS of $0.49 for the second quarter is inline with…

Mark Ketchum - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Thank you, Pat. Before providing my summary comments, I’d like to thank all of our employees for their continued hard work and dedication particularly, during in difficult times. Its also been bumpy ride for our shareholders, 2008 has proved to be a challenging year as tough as any year I have seen in my 37-year career. We have had to take some tough actions to help preserve new Rubbermaid’s ability to grow and prosper in the future. We will continue making the changes necessary to position our company to long time sustainable shareholder value. We have demonstrated this in the past and we demonstrated again with the actions that we announced two weeks ago. Now we are dealing with some very severe near term economic pressures this year let’s not lose site of considerable progresses we have made over the past several years. Our investment is building strong consumer meaningful brands are paying off, driving top line sales growth in many of our categories to offset temporary market contraction in US tools and hardware and US office products. Our efforts to achieve best total cost are driving strong productivity and improved efficiency, which is helping to offset some of the unprecedented cost inflation. Our margin structure in 2008 is still much healthier than it was in 2005 even after the hit from resident inflation and we will deliver another step change improvement in gross margin after executing the recently announced actions. We are collaborating more across brands and business units and sharing best practices corporate wide, which is resulting in bid for a more successful product launches. Our culture is becoming more consumer and brand centric and embracing best in class as our key benchmark. Each year we take steps to make our portfolio less commoditized, more differentiated, and more international with higher gross margins. Our strategies are delivering results and are building competitive advantage. I am confident in our ability not only to weather the current economic storm but emerge from these turbulent fines a stronger and more profitable company. Thank you for joining today’s call and I’ll now ask the operator to open up the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Wendy Nicholson with Citi Investment Research.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

After due with some of the pricing that you’ve announced and given the volatility in oil prices. I know your expectation, you threw out that $200 oil number. But how fluid is the pricing that you are taking in other words, now that oil has come off are you contemplating taking less pricing or how to texture those conversations?

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

Let me answer that with kind of two or three parts. First of all, we think it is best to take a conservative approach in terms of our outlook for the rest of the year because of the volatility that we have experienced. Number two, the pricing that we are taking in October just begins to get us caught up so we got a long way to go to caught up and that’s what we are doing with the first increment that we are taking in October. Going forward January and beyond we will have a mechanism that is very transparent with customers that relates what’s going on in the actual changes in resin pricing our input cost what the projections are based on where oil and natural gas are going and we will put that together with what we need to do in order to continue getting to caught up to where we are. So, the answer is no, even if the oil were to stay where it is today, we wouldn’t come off with the pricing that we already started communicating with our customers because we need that to get caught up and because we believe as Pat said earlier in his remarks that even at a $125 or $135 oil resin has not fully caught up with that price point.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

And, the volume drawdown that you’re expecting in the fourth quarter, that’s more a function of your SKU reductions and those sorts of things or have you begun to hear any pushback from your retailers saying hey, pricing to aggressive and so we’re not taking as many new products or something like that?

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

It is kind of that combination of both. We expect that where it is implemented, whether customer continues to carry the product and implements full pricing right away it may slow down demand and that’s part of it and the other areas that we assumed that that will be the beginning of some customers saying I don’t want to carry it at that price point.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

Okay. And then just one more question if I may, the cash flow outlook I think is probably causing some folks to have a little tiny bit of a heart attack because it can sort of barely that dividend, so I guess, is there any contemplation that you might cut that dividend or you just going to finance that or there is some…?

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

Absolutely not, there is no contemplation of that and let me just put it in perspective as Pat said we expect to generate $500 million order magnitude in the second half and if you look at our big commitments for the second half it would be dividend and CapEx and together that’s around $200 million. So, there is plenty of elements to do that and still pay down debt. So, there is no worry and no concern and absolutely no contemplation of adjusting that dividend.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst · Citi Investment Research

Excellent, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Ferrara with Merrill Lynch.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Hi, good morning guys.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Hi, Chris.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Pat, I was just wondering, can you just talk a little bit more in detail about the timing change on the cash tax payments you’re talking and the customer accruals, little more detail as to what those relate and how they are going to reverse?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I will start with the tax. Last year and the first half of the year there were two events which didn’t repeat this year in the first time. We had some net operating loss carried forward that lowered our cash taxes in the first half of last year, we did not have those, at least not in the same magnitude this year. And we also received a tax refund last year in the front half which lowered our net cash outflow. So, year-over-year comparison was unfavorable from a cash tax standpoint because of these two items. Also in the first half of this year, we paid cash taxes on an anticipated higher income level, we just took our income level, our expectations down. So, our back half taxes are reduced accordingly. So now we lower income expectations for the year, our cash tax is going to help the back half compared to the front half of very low. So, more than pay half of the taxes year-to-date. So, those two things combined in the front, weaker last year and back half will be comparably stronger. From the accrue liability standpoint it primarily related to the customer programming and that’s just the timing of one customer to deduct those program payment some are on quarterly, some are semi-annual, some are annual. Now, we just had more customers take those in the front half before the end of the quarter then we had in the past. So that will reverse in the back half.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Can you give a little more on that and I guess how big is that to cash for the customer accruals and I guess why were they taking more in the first half, does that just mean customer are running more of promotions in the first half of the year than a year ago?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I can’t tell you why. Customer program has really not changed in magnitude. So, they are approximately the same year-over-year. It is a substantial number for the company. I mean, our invoice to net, across our business, varies widely across the business but on average for the company is low double digits. So, it is a big number. So a couple customers taking them a little bit earlier or little bit different timing or change in programming if one was on an annual basis last year and now they are on quarterly kind of affect our cash flow.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Whatever it was, in other words is there a way to think about it, you guys have prepaid this stuff, you pay from more than the first half half’s worth of customer accrual?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

It’s just different in way we have done last year. I’m just comparing year-over-year. So the total amount of payments for the year will be the same just taking more in the front half than a year ago.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay, okay. And then, I guess on the top line in general, I mean, your guidance organically is not for any sort of deceleration even though your customers are seeing increasingly weakening trends. So, I am assuming the more cyclical parts of your business is you are worsening a little bit, where is your business accelerant, why you are able to continue to organic growth in the same level next quarter as you do this quarter?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I think there are a number of reasons. One we are continuing to invest and we’ve got a lot of investment in the third quarter. I think our year-over-year increase in brand building SG&A is up around $50 million and over two thirds of that is a real increase, the third would be currency related. We are investing behind things like we are introducing Sharpie Pens in North America. We are doing a global Sharpie campaign with the endorsement of Beckham on Sharpie. We are driving Paper Mate in Europe and year-over-year relatively we had a low spend in 2007 in office products because of the supply issues. You don’t spend a lot of money promoting what you can’t get on the shelves. So, last year that affected, actually our spending. This year it will be back up. Home and family I already talked been electronics introduction and talked to you about the baby and parenting introduction of Nautilus which has just begun and we are also expanding geographically the brand. Tools and hardware, we are investing especially in developing markets with more feet on the street and cleaning core continues to invest in Rubbermaid Food and Rubbermaid Commercial so, we have a lot of strong initiatives and we’re actually not taking our foot off the pedal at all in terms of investing behind us. We get contributions from the two acquisitions. We get the pricing initiatives that were taken so the combination of all those, you know the acquisitions and the investment in innovations the ongoing strength we’ve had in business like Rubbermaid Commercial, Rubbermaid Food, Rubbermaid Home and Family and the pricing that help all of those things give us confidence in those numbers in the back half.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Great, and then just finally, why are your like all of your customers adjust the mechanisms on pricing or is just a situations where we say okay, agree a little over just offsetting in with that the part of $500 million that we exit?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Is basically, we pull them we have to get this and so far again no customer like their pricing but they understand it and they understand from our willingness to exit other categories that this is that serious so, it’s not a negotiable point and it will just happen to get this kind of pricing in order for us to stay in business and they want us to stay in business they want Rubbermaid brand.

Chris Ferrara

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay, thanks a lot guys.

Operator

Operator

And your next question will come from Bill Smith with Deutsche Bank.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Hi, good morning.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Good morning.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Morning Bill.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Hi, guys can you just give some more detail on the assumptions on $200 oil and demand softness I mean how does that flow through the model and just a little bit more details so that we can try to build around to kind of test some of those assumptions?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yeah, this is Pat, the $200 oil obviously for oils moves in our favor very recently although yesterday it go up that $5 but frankly it effects we believe it effects ‘09 way more ‘08 okay. In other words we don’t believe that the resin cost have even caught up for oil in the $125 to $135 range yet. So we are going to see -- we believe we’ll see inflation in August, in September beyond what we paid in July. We don’t have complete confirmation of that yet but that’s our belief. And let's assume oil then moves to the direction of $200 over the remain four or five months for the year because usually we have added two months lag, one to two months lag for that to get into the cost. So, it will affect credit factors in the fourth quarter but frankly it would affect 2009 for much greater degree. So, for this year, it effects the fourth quarter probably in the $0.04 or $0.05 type of range.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Now if it goes to $200 tomorrow one big jump and that would be definitely okay but it especially as they gradually go to $200 over the rest of the year.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Got it, okay. And that make sense on the oil side, does that mean growth margins can decline again in 2009?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

No, they will not and what we’ve announce recently with these product line exit and sales will actually improve gross margins by a minimum or 200 basis points year-over-year. So, that alone will increase margins but we believe also from a pricing standpoint we are now not in the front of the curve by means but we are working our way we’ve been going into ‘09 although we anticipate pretty significant inflation again in ‘09 versus ‘08 into the level we are seeing this year. We also anticipate that our pricing will be much more in line with that.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. How many pounds of resin?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I think, that I was repeating too. As I said in my remarks our objective is to make resin another raw material in the normal course of running the business. So the businesses that resin will still have high resin containing quantities, which will be Rubbermaid Commercial and Rubbermaid Food and Graco for instance with our car seats. All those businesses number one resin has a percentage of the cost to good filled much more in a voice in the categories that we’re exiting. And therefore, even the large increase and you know there are large users of resin in terms total tonnage its much smaller relative to the price per unit. And second all those businesses are growing substantially through innovation and the consumer is willing to pay for that performance and value and so we expect that this is going to be, I don’t call it a non issue but it won’t be the kind of thing that will report about and fixed and I expect same one-tenth -- much time taking about resin next year even if it continues to delay.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Hope so.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I’m not just hoping, we are planning and expecting that because again the resin that will take out of the system is affected in the products were those conditions just don’t exist. Its relatively low value added, the consumer just wants a basic product, we have tried to test out and offered them innovated ideas and they said just want a basic product and so that’s not going to be our game and that’s why we are exiting or downsizing these categories.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. So, can you give us a number of just like €750 million all in now, I mean do you know what the number been next year in terms of resin buy?

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

We expect it will be down around 40%.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

40%, the resin exposure.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yeah.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Wow, that’s a big number. Thank God you don’t still own little takes.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

We have been on this course for a number of years. We still about 12% of our business that we would have product wise commoditized and much of it was unique kinds of categories and we are making nice progress in continued cost reduction and what I call fixed in the margins but that was a more normal set of circumstances and obviously that world changed its not normal anymore.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, great. And then just one final if I could, how is the back to school season looking for the office products business? Because you’ve had some pretty miserable results by a lot of the office supply retailers?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Our selling with consistent and consistent with what they are reporting and consistent with the North American business is. Seeing what is down in North America in the neighborhood of 5% to 10% in terms in overall. So, its going to be softer than it was year ago but we certainly hope they are owning that environment and with investments that we are making in bringing new products like sharpie pen to market and we are going to do outside the US, that’s what will be the positive side of the office products equation.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Our office technology business continues to grow significantly in the double digit. So, it helps offset some of that decline that we are seeing in the writing categories.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, how are inventory levels in the trade?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well again, we think on our product we think we are okay, we don’t see a significant take down risk where we are today.

Bill Smith

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay, great, thank you. Sorry for taking so much time.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

No, okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Budd Bugatch with Raymond James.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

Good morning Mark, good morning Pat.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

Good morning.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

Just couple of things, you talked a little bit about some other planning assumptions in for 2009, in revenues we’re going to be down $500 million I guess annualized on revenues what should we think about that you already did say I think your gross margins will be up in 2009, can you give us kind of maybe the initial thoughts as there is wide disparity of estimates out there now?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

Related what we’ve announced couple of weeks ago about the top line down around $500 million but the gross margins improved in just from our announcement in excess of 200 basis points, which is private lines had low single digit gross margins and our operating profits when we put this behind as we haven’t at the start in next year over this call and our run rate I mean next year will be up to $0.05 or $0.10 and that’s to us taking out the associated SG&A related to those product lines.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

An internal growth what do you think I know it’s obviously nobody has got a good crystal ball right now?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

We are not going to predict that at this point in time but --

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay. Let me talk a little bit about the drill down a little bit home and family obviously Aprica I think you’ve – I got you right at about $36 million of volume in the quarter and you can confirm if I’m right on that or not but, I was disappointed in looking at the margins and the change in operating profit in there right? Now, a creek of what somewhat dilutive can you kind of quantify what that was between brand building strategic SG&A and the Aprica dilution?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

Aprica in the quarter was a little -- not sure they were down of $3.5 million in profit and total probably half of that was Aprica and the rest was the strategic spending and pressure a presumable margin from implied costs.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

And then in the third and fourth quarter what do you think is Aprica going to be that kind of commercial gain or --?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

It should be more in mutual to the profit in the back half.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay. And if you could talk a little bit about Europe in terms of profitability I know in the Q’s we see European profitability and I know that the numbers we see include I guess project acceleration cost but what I was surprised in the first quarter to see Europe move into a loss category and can you kind of give us maybe some geographical help when operating help now and what that was -- how much of that maybe acceleration or restructuring charges?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Raymond James

I know how they are specifics but that’s what it is, (inaudible) restructuring in Europe and so that’s what taken it to a loss on a GAAP basis. On a management basis or a continuing basis I will have that back to you, have Nancy get back to you and tell you what that difference is.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Raymond James

It’s improving year-over-year and its not declining.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

So and same in the second quarter as well?

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes, and expected for the year also, yeah.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay. All right, good luck, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Connie Maneaty with BMO Capital.

Connie Maneaty

Analyst · BMO Capital

Let’s see. Could you give us a breakdown of your inflation outlook for 275 to 325? How much is it sounds like resin is the biggest piece but how much is resin, oil, natural gas, metals and finished sourced goods. Could you give us a percentage of each in that inflation outlook?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · BMO Capital

I don’t have those numbers right in front of me Connie. But you’re right, the largest share of it is resin say more than half. The next biggest piece is sourced finished product and that’s been driven by same as is driving our own production and the next biggest and it’s called out of quarter and the rest is metal and packaging (inaudible). But I don’t have the exact numbers.

Connie Maneaty

Analyst · BMO Capital

Okay, I guess on the sourced goods, that was you kind of led into my next question. A total land at cost basis, does it still make sense to show a lot of products outside the US when we take into account labor rates along with cost inflation?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · BMO Capital

Yes, it does because the raw material inputs are virtually the same so that’s large percentage of our cost so that drive in new higher cost in many case. We are seeing that here as well as there. The labor differential although it has shrunk a little bit so significant and higher source of significantly low in labor and also overhead in the plans that are overseas. So, the same trade off that we would always do is really the labor and overhead savings offset the transportation and just say half of that. In that way various in the type of product and much labor. Labor with the Rubbermaid products usually make them closer to market because they are expensive to ship and have very low labor component whereas smaller product with a higher labor content still makes sense to go overseas.

Connie Maneaty

Analyst · BMO Capital

Okay. We keep hearing about the new resin capacity that’s supposed to be coming on in the Middle East and primarily made from natural gas, are you expecting that, I guess the question is Dow is taking out capacity at the time when new capacity is still supposed to be coming on. How should we think about the suppliers’ behavior? I mean, why shouldn’t the price of resin come down with new capacity?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · BMO Capital

You’re talking about supply and demand impacts on the price and frankly the input costs going up so fast, oil an natural gas going up so fast the supply and demand part of the equation has become really less important this year. Going forward we really haven’t taken a view whether that capacity will lower costs or not. When we look at ‘09 we anticipate again oil and natural gas continue on the path at this point. We want to take that conservative view but we haven’t taken any offset to that based on more capacity coming online because we have heard that too for years and years so we haven’t quite seen the effect of that yet. So, we are going to take the conservative view and just expecting inflation on the input cost.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · BMO Capital

The other I would say Connie is that the supply and demand of the resin capacity has much more significant impact, effect rather at more constant input cost and when the input cost are rising and are as high as they are today that totally overwhelms it. Input costs or oil and natural gas energy costs are 65% to 75% of their total cost structure. The total cost structure making resin because it is a) the input material, b) it takes energy to run the cracking process and c) it takes energy to transport its market and so its such a predominate cost so when it doubles it just totally worsening the impact and supplying demand.

Connie Maneaty

Analyst · BMO Capital

That’s very helpful.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · BMO Capital

The other thing has happened and that you have to realize is that in resin, even resin that comes on in the Middle East, it will be most attractive to European suppliers. A lot of the European suppliers have come to the US to buy resins from US companies, paying the additional incremental cost to ship it across the ocean because of the currency, the Euro is so cheap versus the dollar. So they can get a lot more money by coming across and buying dollarized resin. So that’s also affecting the dynamics of the marketplace today.

Connie Maneaty

Analyst · BMO Capital

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from Joe Altobello with Oppenheimer.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Thanks, good morning, guys.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Good morning.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

First question, in terms of the timing of the portfolio process, you guys are not assuming a step function on January 1, ‘09, sounds like you are sort of assuming a ratable process throughout 2009. Is that the case?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

That’s fair. I think you will see those exit starting in the fourth quarter and then picking up sequentially but in total it will take about 12 months before we are at the end point.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

And if that’s case that will get you to $0.05 or $0.10 of accretion?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

That’s right.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Okay. In terms of the commodity cost situation if we assume that commodity stay where they are at today, it sounds like Pat, you’re still looking for additional inflation next year?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Well, just the carry over effect of this year’s inflation is significant in other words it hasn’t move -- did move on January 1, we get it all from day one, its moving up during the year so even if they stabilize we would have a year-over-year impact.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Even with the business exits?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Yes, we still use there are raw materials in the businesses that we will remain in. So the rate of inflation when that remaining business would be about the same just be a lower base. So the dollars may come down. But the rate of inflation would be roughly the same.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

But you’ll still be up.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Oppenheimer

I think about next year we will continue to see a pretty hefty price tag for inflation but you will also see much more benefit from pricing because it will be in categories we can price and knowing and anticipating that we are going earlier next year.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

And the $0.05 to $0.10 accretion incorporate any fixed cost absorption from the exits of those differences as well?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Is does. Those businesses are fully burdened with their fixed costs. Low single digit gross margins and we will be making the appropriate actions to take that fixed overhead out. And then from SG&A standpoint we will remove the SG&A that is directly related to those businesses which generate the $0.05 to $0.10 improvement.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Okay. And then in terms of the office business it sounds like you are a little more constructive on the international part of that given your comments this morning so it sounds like you are not seeing any weakness overseas in Western Europe for example that we are seeing here in the US as of yet?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Not yet. We had a good second quarter. We had some pretty favorable comps because of pretty weak second quarter last year. But we had a good second quarter in office products in Europe as well as Asia and we continue to get the foreign currency benefit and also point out the office technology business is doing very well. So, all those combined are causing the growth in that segment.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Okay. And then lastly, the volume decline you are anticipating in 4Q and the price increases, how much of that is from consumers moving to lower priced items and how much of that is retailers in the allocating less shelf space?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Oppenheimer

As I said earlier we really can’t break that out, that’s specifically and frankly until customers make their actual choices and put it out there we won’t know for sure. So, we assume that there is some of each and that’s what included in our estimates.

Joe Altobello

Analyst · Oppenheimer

Got it, understood. Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We will take our final question from Linda Bolton-Weiser with Caris.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst · Caris

Hi. I seem to recall that there was this concept of the surcharge under the previous CEO, under Joe and maybe -- I know it was before your time, Mark, but maybe Pat could comment on, how did that work and did that effectively eliminate some low margin SKU through the natural process of the surcharge and had this --

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Caris

What was the surcharge (multiple speakers).

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst · Caris

How did that all work and how did the surcharge go away because there was one I recall?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Caris

Yeah, we did have one. I forget which year it was, I think it was in probably it was late ‘04 (multiple speakers) resins at the time, it was semi-annual basis as I recall and we did exit some product lines. I wouldn’t say it was a direct result of that but it was connected with it at that time. But moved away from it because there was a low in our resin costs, frankly. And went back to our -- our normal pricing mechanism which would be more on an annual basis on those products and that we see again the mediocre rise in resin cost. We feel we have to have some mechanism in place that ties our price to go that again.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst · Caris

So, you say the retailer forgot to take you to the table when resin was going down?

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Caris

It wasn’t going down. It just leveled off.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Caris

The theme dynamic worked then, Linda, which was initially the inflation resin preceded our ability to price to cover it so we were behind from the beginning and had to get caught up, right, we got to caught up little bit faster because it wasn’t nearly as dramatic in terms of its total impact as it is today. But, there is always lag effect when its starts moving that quickly. And so the surcharge then and are pricing now isn’t just starting with today as the point in time going forward it starts, the clock starts some point back in history and so here is what we got to do to get caught up, here some much we are behind April. And that’s what mechanism going forward, we will accommodate both or a comfort of getting caught up, as well as, you know, actual current environment and the predicted environment.

Pat Robinson

Analyst · Caris

And were caught up going -- you know out of those 7, we had about $350 million inflation over the previous 4 year period and about 350 million of pricing. So, we had caught up at that point and we are now behind again.

Mark Ketchum

Analyst · Caris

When we stopped the surcharge and we were caught up and resin had stabilized.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst · Caris

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

If we were unable to get to your question during this call, please call Newell Rubbermaid Investor Relations at 770-407-3994. Today’s call will be available on the web at www.newellrubbermaid.com, and on digital replay at 888-203-1112 or area code 719-457-0820 for international callers with the conference code of 452-4394 starting two hours following the conclusion of today’s call and ending August 14. This concludes today’s conference, you may now disconnect.