Earnings Labs

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 9, 2016

$203.29

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to Nexstar Broadcasting Group's 2016 Second Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. All statements and comments made by management during this conference call other than statements of historical fact may be deemed forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and projections about future events. Forward-looking statements include information preceded by, followed by or that includes the word guidance, believes, expects, anticipates, could or similar expressions. For these statements, Nexstar claims the protection of the Safe Harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The forward-looking statements contained in this communication, concerning, among other things, the ultimate outcome and benefits of any possible transaction between Nexstar and Media General and timing thereof, and future financial performance, including changes in net revenue, cash flow and operating expenses, involve risks and uncertainties, and are subject to change based on various important factors, including the timing to consummate the proposed transaction; the risk that a condition to closing of the proposed transaction may not be satisfied and the transaction may not close; the risk that a regulatory approval that may be required for the proposed transaction is delayed, is not obtained or is obtained subject to conditions that are not anticipated, the impact of changes in national and regional economies, the ability to service and refinance our outstanding debt, successful integration of Media General including achievement of synergies and cost reductions, pricing fluctuations in local and national advertising, future regulatory actions and conditions in the television stations' operating areas, competition from others in the broadcast television markets, volatility in programming costs, the effects of governmental regulation of broadcasting, industry consolidation, technological development and major world news events. Unless required by law, Nexstar undertakes no obligation to update or…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we will take our first question from James Dix with Wedbush Securities.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. One question on 2Q and then two questions on the third quarter. First in terms of the national weakness in terms of advertising in the second quarter, any color there on verticals or regions or what you think was driving that? In terms of the third quarter – oh, go ahead, Perry, sorry. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would say James that national is the most price sensitive commodity that we have and when we exceed our political budget and expectations by the amount that we did, that's the first piece of the category, the first revenue line to go. I will tell you that, you know, as you may have heard from some others, we did see – we saw growth in automotive. It was low single-digit growth, but from our perspective, other categories that were more volatile and down were fast foods and medical healthcare, school advertising and cable. So I mean, thematically not anything different than you've heard. But I don't believe there's anything other than cyclicality in those results, and again, if I look at national, you know, national is roughly 12% of our total revenues right now, and it's about the fourth or fifth most important line of the revenue lines that we track and concentrate on.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's very help. And then just turning to the third quarter, what pacing are you seeing in terms of your core business there and then any adjustment that you're making for political displacement in that? And then I suppose just part of that, any net impact you're assuming from the Olympics to your overall station group as well as NBC's – NBC has clearly got held, but I'm just wondering whether you're assuming that helps the overall group or whether it's just kind of shifting money from one affiliate – set of affiliates to another? Thanks. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, James. I would say local pacing as of this morning is pacing better than our finish for second quarter. National pacing for the third quarter is pacing down less than we finished in second quarter. Overall, core revenue pacing is up, and it's interesting your call about Olympics, first of all. You know, we have 21 markets where we have NBC affiliates which mean out of our 54 markets we have 33 markets where we're competing against the Olympics. That said, we will generate, you know, we've already exceeded our Olympic budget for the company, which was a little bit north of $12 million for the quarter, and we still have inventory and weeks to go in those telecasts. So, you know, we view that as a net positive, but again it's 21 markets out of the 54 that the Olympics are a plus, and 33 out of 54 where the Olympics are probably, you know, a net negative. As it relates to political, we again believe that we are comfortable with our $100 million guidance for the year. Displacement would only become an issue in primarily the month of September and,…

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great, thanks very much, Perry.

Operator

Operator

And we will take a question from Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks. Just two from me, I guess, first, your remarks on moving along with the timeline of the Media General transaction and a close later this year. Is that regardless of whether the spectrum auction drags into 2017? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, in a word. However, we would require a waiver from the FCC to close during the pendency of the spectrum auction. Our last divestiture market comes off public notice this Friday. And therefore we will be in a position to go to the FCC starting next Monday to discuss the possibility of a waiver to permit the closing of the transaction, which we intend to do so.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Great and then second one, maybe this is for Tom. You're generating material free cash. So you'll potentially have some spectrum auction proceeds, and I know you fully expect to grow the business going forward, so given that trifecta, where would you like to see leverage go as you navigate the next couple years from let's assume the 5.5 times pro forma leverage at the close of the Media General deal? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, I think, we've been pretty consistent. We have no aspirations to be an investment grade company. We feel I think most comfortable and obviously all of this is dependent upon interest rates rising marginally over the coming years. If they rise materially we would have to rethink and lower our leverage target. But I would say it's somewhere between 3.5 times and 4 times on kind of a steady state basis in terms of where our leverage target would be on a longer term basis given the current interest rate environment or interest rates slightly above where they are today which is where I think people would believe they've been headed.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

That's like blended even odd year basis 3.5 times, 4 times is – would be a good (35:19). Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Correct.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will move next to Dan Kurnos of Benchmark Company.

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

Thanks, Perry. Actually you addressed already most of my political questions, although I don't know if you talked as much about issue dollars. I'm wondering if you guys are getting an out-sized benefit given your local focus. And then I guess, Tom, if you could just give us, I think, I missed it, what the same station digital growth was and then just maybe an update, I know, it's really de minimis at this point on the Yashi Digital Mirror launch, if you're getting any traction there. Thanks. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I'll take the digital, I think, in my comments, I said, the same station digital was up 10% as we're seeing very strong growth in our local products, which is not only station websites, but our Tactive Digital marketing services company from that perspective, so 10% same station digital; and I'm sorry, your other questions were around Yashi Mirror and I'm sorry what else?

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

I was asking about the Yashi Digital Mirror, if you're seeing any traction there, I know, it's really de minimis at this point. And then for Perry, just – I know we talked a lot about the gubernatorial, sort of, down ballot races, but I was curious on the issue front, if you were also seeing an uptick because you guys had a relatively large portion of your political come from candidates spending again in Q2 versus others. And I'm curious on a go forward basis if there's some additional benefit given your local focus from issue dollars. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think, on the Yashi Digital Mirror product, the reception among advertisers and amongst the market has been very strong, a lot of good interest. I think, your categorization is correct, it's still in the formative stages as it relates to that but we think it's a product that is ripe for the market, and one that will be very accretive over the coming quarters. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And I'll just add to that that Yashi had its best month of the year in terms of revenue in the just-completed month of July. So, we believe that that product as well as their other execution strategies are beginning to take hold. As it relates to political, you're right; in the second quarter it was roughly 60% candidate, 40% PAC, and party money. You know, we at this point know that the Koch Brothers are putting their money behind key senate (37:46) and Karl Rove is doing the same. We have not yet begun to see money in those races from those entities. So at this point I think it's too early to tell. But we know that the states at which we have competitive senate races, house races, governors' races and then other down ballots, and I think we're very well-positioned with our geographic footprint in the current company and certainly in the combined company to take advantage and maximize that opportunity. And we feel very comfortable reiterating our guidance on political for the full year, and aided by the fact that we were ahead of our internal projections on political for both Q1 and Q2.

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

All right. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

And we will move next to Kyle Evans of Stephens.

Kyle Evans - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Can you hear me? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, sir.

Kyle Evans - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. If you would please, an update on retransmission subscriber volumes. It was this time last year that ESPN scared everybody. Just looking to see where those are. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Subscriber volumes, for end-market subscribers, continue to be flat to both 2015 and 2014. Where we've seen some changes from the MSOs is some of the MSOs have carried stations out of market historically, and in some of those MSOs we do get paid for that. I think what you're seeing is a tightening of the belt from some of these MSOs where if they're not required to carry stations that are outside of the market, they're not doing so. And so from that perspective, out of market subscribers for us are down, but that's more of a business decision than I think it is a market trend from that perspective. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And it's really a rounding error. And in fact most new network affiliation agreements do not permit out of market carriage and some of those relationships were severed, not voluntarily if you will, but the – it was a part of the network affiliation agreement that we were required to drop out of market coverage. But again it's a rounding error, and again, as Tom mentioned, you know, retrans fee revenue for the quarter up 40% over Q2 of 2015 and on a same-station basis plus – north of 33%. So I would say that, again, we feel very confident in our position in even the skinniest of bundles because we're the foundational element of the bundle. So we have not seen any significant diminuation in subscriber counts certainly in-market and the only noise would be around out-of-market subscribers, which is a very small percentage of our total sub count.

Kyle Evans - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

So no change to the long-term double-digit net retrans growth? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, not at all.

Kyle Evans - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will take a question from Marci Ryvicker of Wells Fargo.

Stephan E. Bisson - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. It's Stephan for Marci. The core pace of up low-singles for Q3, is that adjusted at all for political displacement and/or the Olympics? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, the pace is what it is and that's what it was as of about 7 o'clock this morning. So we're pacing ahead locally by a greater number than we finished Q2 and behind locally. It does take everything into account. The Olympic revenue is on the books, political is on the books, displacing whatever it is at this point, but pace is just an arithmetic number of this day versus this day last year by category, by local, by national. And so you could say that it's factored in, but it's really just a state of play. So there is no adjusting of those numbers. That's just the raw data.

Stephan E. Bisson - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then for political, how much typically falls into Q4 in past presidential elections and does it look like it's going to be the same in 2016? Some peers have noted that it's getting shifted later, possibly more to Q4 than Q3 typically gets. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We don't think it's getting shifted materially different. It's approximately 50%, maybe slightly more than 50% in Q4. And that's a trend that we have seen, and quite honestly sequentially our quarters are falling out as we had expected, maybe slightly better than expected in the first half. But I don't think that that's going to materially affect the percentage by quarter.

Stephan E. Bisson - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

And we'll move to John Kornreich of JK Media.

John Kornreich - JK Media LP

Analyst

Yes, hi. So you're running about $400 million annualized transmission fees. On that $400 million-ish, what do you estimate is your net margin to yourself? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, all we've said is our net margin has traditionally exceeded by a significant amount more than 50%, and we continue to experience that...

John Kornreich - JK Media LP

Analyst

By a significant amount, right? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes.

John Kornreich - JK Media LP

Analyst

Okay. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And we continue to see the trends in net retrans revenue, if you want to think about it that way, which is retrans revenue net affiliation expense, that net number to grow double digits over the next three years.

John Kornreich - JK Media LP

Analyst

Right. So with significantly over 50% right now, your net retransmission "profit" is more than half of your BCF, and in fact "significantly" more than half of your BCF? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think that's a fair statement. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes.

John Kornreich - JK Media LP

Analyst

Thank you. That's it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll move to Jim Goss with Barrington Research.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. I was wondering what your capital allocation priorities are post-Media General? And to the extent that M&A is part of that, what do you focus on? Is it station swaps or other business alliance? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, obviously there's a lot of moving pieces as it relates to that. I'll give you the steady-state answer, which is post-acquisition, as we had mentioned, we'll be leveraged somewhere in the mid-5x. I had mentioned that our target leverage is 4x or below. We believe that absent other factors that we'll dedicate free cash flow over the first nine months to 18 months to deleveraging. Obviously, we have a dividend that will continue and that dividend should grow and you should expect it to grow at a trajectory consistent with historical growth, but we will continue to deleverage. And then after that, obviously, we'll have the opportunity to evaluate accretive acquisitions as well, but clearly there are a number of factors that can change that; most notably I think the spectrum auction. Again, all of our debt capital and leverage statistics assume no proceeds from the spectrum auction. To the degree there are proceeds, those will be dedicated and basically turbo charge our debt reduction and our leverage reduction, which could accelerate our ability to participate in M&A going forward plus the potential corollary to a windfall from the spectrum auction proceeds would be a reduction in our household cap from the just below 39%. If you assume we sold spectrum and exited markets because of that spectrum sale, then we would have the opportunity to reengage as it relates to accretive new market M&A if you want to think about it that way. So I mean obviously there's a lot of variables that go into that, but I think the first order of priority would be leveraging. Whether we accomplish that through free cash flow and operating cash flow or we accomplish that through asset sales and monetization of some of those assets.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. That's a really good answer. The one other thing I was going to ask about was the OTT strategies you were alluding to. Could you discuss any of the relationships with the various network partners, which ones work for you? And I know you've said in the past that none of them provide any serious economics at this moment. Do you think that will change over the next several years? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'm not optimistic that there's going to be significant change. The only OTT that we're participating in right now, the only OTT operating right now is CBS All Access and that's with a handful of our CBS affiliates, certainly not all. We've not reached agreement with any network or any other OTT provider on satisfactory economic terms that would motivate us to participate in any offering at this time. So I still think five years from now we'll be talking about it, but it will be the same noise. And I saw an article this morning in Recode saying free TV on the Internet experiment died years ago. Now Hulu is burying it. I think that's pretty good thematic. Another quarter yet again when Apple hasn't launched and may not even be close and so I think it's all noise. And cumulatively all of these offerings add up to something on the order of 5% of total TV households, maybe in five years, but I don't see anything more than that, and so I believe that there's value in the bundle and I like our position in the skinniest of the skinny bundles as the foundational element with the local broadcast stations.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Yes, I'm sort of thinking it's a bit of a line in the sand on the part of the networks starting with CBS and maybe you'd agree with that or perhaps not? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You'd have to ask them about that.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. That's all for now then. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we'll move to Tracy Young of Evercore ISI.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Yes, hi. You mentioned that 45% of your sub base is up for renewal this year, and is most of that back-end weighted? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, very back-end weighted. We did complete a deal a week-and-a-half ago on very favorable terms, but it is not a significant subscriber contribution, but the remainder of those are December expirations at various points in the month of December.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. And then for Q2 can you talk about retail, restaurants, and packaged goods, how those did? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. The fast food category was down for us. Retail was basically flat. We don't break out packaged goods from retail per se. Retail is kind of the catch-all category for us. But fast food was down and the retail category was just a whisker under flat to the prior year.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will move to Barry Lucas of Gabelli & Company. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Thanks and good morning, Perry. Could you touch on any regional variances and what you're seeing in particularly some of the oil and gas markets that you serve? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, actually, our oil and gas markets, Permian Basin in West Texas and North Dakota have been some of our best performers. It is true that exploration may have ground to a halt, but production has not, and there are still unfilled oil services jobs, not enough hotel rooms for the folks that are there to service those and restaurants and all of that. So it is true that exploration and drilling of new wells has stopped and the businesses that service that part of the oil and gas industry have laid off. But I think the last I saw there were still something like 400 unfilled oil services jobs in Williston, North Dakota, which is part of our Bismarck market and the infrastructure is just still trying to catch up with that demand. So we have not seen and we kind of look at East and West and then we divide that further by regions and by affiliation, and there's no material difference in revenue achievement across any geography that we have. Some are more impacted by political, but that still has not become a major factor in displacement of core revenue across the portfolio. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Thanks for that. And just a small one on the Olympics, given some of the viewership numbers and the fact that you said you have open inventory, how do you feel about the balance of the inventory with regard to some…

Operator

Operator

And with no further questions in the queue, I'd like to turn things back over to Perry Sook for any additional or closing remarks. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much for joining us today. We are hopeful that prior to our announcement of our Q3 results in November that we're back in touch with you to announce the closing of the Media General transaction, and that's what we're focused on here. So thanks very much for joining us today. And we look forward to talking to you again in the near future.

Operator

Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.