Earnings Labs

The New York Times Company (NYT)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 25, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to The New York Times Company Third Quarter Earnings 2012 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Paula Schwartz. Please go ahead.

Paula Schwartz

Management

Thank you, Melissa. Good morning and welcome to our Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. We have several members of our senior management team here to discuss our results with you, including Arthur Sulzberger, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Follo, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Scott Heekin-Canedy, President and General Manager, New York Times; and Denise Warren, Senior Vice President and Chief Advertising Officer, The New York Times Media Group and General Manager of NYTimes.com. All of the comparisons on this conference call will be for the third quarter of 2012 through the third quarter of 2011, unless otherwise stated. As we noted in our release earlier this morning, the results for the About Group are reported in discontinued operations for all periods presented. Our discussion will include forward-looking statements, and our actual results may differ from those predicted. Some of the factors that may cause them to differ are included in our 2011 10-K. Our presentation will also include non-GAAP financial measures, and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our corporate website at www.nytco.com, under Investor Relations. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Arthur Sulzberger.

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

Thank you, Paula, and good morning, everyone. Our results for the third quarter reflect continued pressure on advertising revenues, which have been dampened by the challenging economic environment, rapidly changing consumer habits and an increasingly complex and fragmented digital advertising marketplace. At the same time, our results also reflect continued growth in circulation revenues led by the ongoing expansion of our digital subscription plan. Digital subscription trends have remained robust and at a quarter-end, paid digital subscriptions across the company totaled approximately $592,000, up 11% from the end of the second quarter. Over the past 3 months, we have taken a number of decisive actions to better position our company for the future. First, was the selection of our new President and CEO, Mark Thompson, who will be joining us next month. We believe that his experience and accomplishments make him the ideal person to take the helm of The Times Company, as we focus on growing our businesses through digital and global expansion. Second, just after the quarter closed, we completed the sale of the About Group for approximately $300 million in cash, plus a working capital adjustment. This sale will allow us to continue to enhance our focus on our core businesses of generating and distributing high-quality journalism. And in early October, our ownership interest in indeed.com was sold for approximately $167 million. The after-tax proceeds from these 2 transactions further strengthen our solid liquidity position. We have remained disciplined in managing our expenses even as we invest in our digital transformation and journalistic initiatives, including our extensive coverage of the London Olympic Games, the presidential campaign and the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. We continue to look for opportunities to broaden and deepen reader interaction, expand The Times brand and extend our global footprint.…

James M. Follo

Management

Thank you, Arthur, and good morning, everyone. Our results for the third quarter reflect the continued strength in the circulation side of our business, led by double-digit growth in The Times digital subscriptions. Halfway through the second year of the subscription model, this meaningful revenue stream has helped partially offset continued softness we've been seeing in our Advertising business, resulting in total revenues declining about 1% in the third quarter. Circulation revenues rose 7% for the company and 9% for The Times Media Group in the quarter, led by growth in digital subscriptions. Total revenues also benefited from print circulation price increases at The Times and The Globe in the first half of 2012, which helped to offset decline in print copies sold at The Times and The New England Media Groups. Times has continued to see growth in Sunday home delivery and improved retention rates of home delivery subscribers, who received all digital access for free. Meanwhile, the advertising landscape has been categorized by a challenging economic environment, which has been compounded by weakened business confidence, associated with the uncertainty around the elections and the pending fiscal Cliff. It's also been affected by ongoing secular trends and an increasingly complex and fragmented digital advertising marketplace. Print advertising revenues decreased 11% and digital advertising revenues ended down 2%. Operating expenses before depreciation, amortization and severance were up 3%. On a GAAP basis, costs were up 2% and we reported an operating profit of $8.5 million in the third quarter. Excluding depreciation, amortization, severance, operating profit was $34 million. Diluted loss per share from continuing operations, excluding severance, special items in 2011, was $0.01 in each of the third quarters of 2012 and 2011. Now let me provide you more depth on our third quarter results. Total advertising revenues decreased 9%…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Alexia Quadrani from JPMorgan. Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Just 2 quick questions. One, on your guidance for the fourth quarter with similar newspaper advertising declines, does that take into account the extra week in the quarter or not? And then the second question is really on what should we sort of assume for a digital sub growth per quarter? Do you think we can see another 10% to 11% growth in the fourth quarter? I guess, what sort of run rate are you looking at?

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

Alexia, our statement about fourth quarter advertising largely excluded whatever benefit we might see from having that extra week. On digital growth rates, we don't really forecast and break that out going forward, other than to say we expect a good strong circulation revenue growth kind of similar -- in line with kind of what we -- a little bit of what we saw in the third quarter. So that would suggest good continued growth there. But we'd rather not be as precise as that. Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I guess, put another way, the marketing initiatives behind that impressive growth you saw in the quarter, are those expected to continue or was there something sort of specific to Q3 that helped deliver those numbers?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

Alexia, it's Denise. We get this question a lot about how we're going to continue to increment our subscriber growth. And so let me try to frame it for you in a strategic way. I mean, we have generated, as you know, the sizable growth through a range of marketing and product initiatives, and that will continue. As we look forward, we're really investing in sort of 3 key areas to make sure that we continue to grow this business. One is first and foremost, the journalism. That is what our users are paying for. The second is that we're continuing to invest in user experience and more availability on new platforms, which is what was referenced in Arthur's remarks about flipboard, for example, as being part of our NYT Everywhere strategy, making the product available to more people so that we can bring more users into the brand. And then, finally, expanding the portfolio. We believe that there's untapped demand in the corporate, education segments, as well as in the international marketplace. And as well, we're beginning to explore entry-level product opportunities and higher-end products and suites of benefits. So as we have said and will continue to say, we are still in the very, very early innings of this initiative and we believe there's a lot of opportunity to come.

Operator

Operator

And next, we'll go to John Janedis from UBS.

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

I'm hoping to dig a little bit deeper into circulation revenue at The Times. With revenue up about $4.5 million since the first quarter and over that time, you've increased single copy and home delivery prices and on top of that, I guess, you've increased digital subs to more than 100,000. Now I know there are some timing issues there, maybe some seasonality but can you help me think it through, meaning, why would revenue be a little bit more up sequentially? And do you think you're seeing daily print subs convert to digital only or Sunday only?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

There's a better seasonality in our year and the revenue can be a function of the marketing programs. The key drivers accounting for our revenue growth are, as we've said, the price increase that we put in place for both home delivery and single copy at the beginning of the year. And then the volume growth we've been driving in digital. The second question was what?

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

I guess, are you seeing any kind of maybe shift from daily print subs to maybe digital only or Sunday? Meaning, is there any kind of negative mix there that you're seeing?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

No, not an unidentifiable one. The general dynamics, we -- single copy is the most likely source of some of the digital subscriber growth but we have no real way of tracking that because of the nature of those transactions. The home delivery trends continue to be positive. And both in terms of start levels and retention levels relative to -- prior to the pay model implementation. So the dynamics we've described over the past year are still very much in place. And as Denise said, we have an array of programs and sources, areas of investment that we think will continue to drive digital growth for quite some time. We, as you said, we're still in early innings.

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Scott, any reason why or any thoughts in raising Sunday-only home delivery to try to maybe get a little bit more out of the benefit or value you're giving to the subscriber?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

We look at our pricing options all the time, consider them on an ongoing basis. And as you know, we don't single and advance the changes we're going to make. But yes, we are very aware of what you're identifying.

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Maybe quickly for Denise. The digital ad revenues have now, I guess, been down for maybe 2 or 3 quarters, down in low-singles. The amount of which spoke to some of the challenges. But with inventory seemingly endless, how do you change or reverse that revenue trend?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

So I think there's a couple of things that you've identified, which are greatly impacting our performance there is obviously an abundance of inventory on the marketplace and there's efficient buying methods such as programmatic buying that are really driving the price down. But they're driving the price down in a particular segment of the inventory. So I think you really have to peel back the onion in terms of what you're offering. So for example, while overall, the trend was as we reported, negative and it was challenging, there are certain segments of the market that we're seeing robust growth in. For example, our tablet advertising performance is up fairly substantially. Now this is also a very small base, I just want to make that point, but it is an opportunity for us as well, smartphone advertising is growing. And the other thing I would point to, and I think you all know this, about the part of the market that we're trying to serve is brand advertising in a very custom and unique way. That business, those custom, high-impact ad units, will meet segment that business out from the rest of what I would call just your standard banner display advertising. That business is also performing very well. So I think it's really about focusing on those segments of the market and those opportunities.

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

I know it's early but either from a digital perspective, any kind of commentary around what advertisers are saying around the holidays?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

I don't have any insight that goes out that far. You know how volatile this marketplace is so...

John Janedis - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Is the buying pattern still week-to-week?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

I mean, I think, you should just -- our guidance is that the fourth quarter is going to look like the third quarter. I think that's our best information and insight at this point.

Operator

Operator

And next, we'll go to Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: I don't think I saw it in your press release. Can you break apart corporate cost? And how do they trend versus a year ago, please?

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

I think they were down. There's a lot of things that run through that line that make that tend to be very lumpy. Movement in our stock price drives it the way we account for compensation. But overall, just give me one second. We actually -- you're right, we actually are now reporting one segment. So we don't have detail, just give me one second, I'll pull that out. All right, Craig. let me get back to you on that and I'll have somebody pull that data.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Okay. And then another nitpick question, please. For newsprint, what was the consumption and the price change there, please?

James M. Follo

Management

I think it was down, we said, overall, it was down 4%, and it's all consumption because price has been largely flat for the last couple of years.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Okay. And then can you just quantify, if you would, this pricing erosion that you're seeing with the digital advertising? What sort of range are those price declines?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

Well, I don't know that we're going to give an exact number, but we are seeing pricing pressure, as I mentioned, on the core banner display business. And I think this is really something that we're seeing kick in, in the third quarter. As business confidence weakens, as more supply comes on the marketplace and as the programmatic buying trends become more and more robust. But these are -- this is a new trend for us, Craig, in terms of the impact on our rates.

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

Craig, just to follow-up on your corporate question. Corporate expense tends be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter, so I wouldn't read much into this, but our corporate expenses were down about $1 million in the quarter. Again, it's driven by a bunch of stuff that tends to be lumpy and often evens out over the whole year, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Okay. Then another pricing question, if I could, they're down almost 11% for print advertising revenues. How much of that was volume, please, versus price?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

It was virtually all volume. I mean, there's always price in there. You know how complicated this is because price is really a function of the mix in the different segments that we're selling, but it was basically all volume.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: My last question, please. Daily and Sunday circulation volume for flagship paper, what was that percent change versus a year ago, for the print?

James M. Follo

Management

For the quarter?

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Yes. For the quarter.

James M. Follo

Management

For the quarter. Weekday print is down about 7%, and the Sunday is down about just under 2%. That's a rough trend that's been in place for a while now.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from Doug Arthur from Evercore.

Douglas M. Arthur - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore

Two questions. Jim, on the pension, is the reason -- the overall -- I think your -- the implication of your commentary was that the overall obligation would not drop if you get 50% acceptance rate. Is that because you're taking cash out of the pension so it's sort of a net issue? I mean, it would seem -- I'm trying to figure out why you're doing this if the overall obligation's not dropping?

James M. Follo

Management

The reason we're doing it is because our long-term goal is to shrink the size of the plan, really, on the liability side, and of course, asset side, we want to get this to be a smaller part of our business. The liability is on our -- all of our pension plans are quite large and somewhere around $1.7 billion. So as we go through processes of getting the thing fully funded and also shrinking it, that -- it just benefits because you don't see the volatility and the overhang on our company. And quite frankly, you've seen that happening. You're seeing an acceleration of these sorts with Google, you saw Verizon do that, you've seen GM, you've seen Ford do it. And it's all about shrinking the size of the pension plan. Because it's just -- it's a very volatile. It's very driven by interest rates, it's not in our control. And the reason why it doesn't really change, as what I said in my remarks, it doesn't change the underfunded status. The underfunded status meaning liabilities minus assets, is because you're basically taking both your assets and your liabilities down by that $100 million. Just a minor impact on the net number. Some but not enough to worry about.

Douglas M. Arthur - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore

Okay. And then the second question. I mean, I get the fact that the economy is not perfect and people are highly uncertain and all that. But the ad number is really shockingly weak in the quarter. And it's kind of way off-trend of what you've seen in the last 4 to 8 quarters, particularly at The Times. Were there any particular categories, I'm thinking particularly the luxury retail category, which is pretty important to you guys, that kind of went off the reservation here?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Evercore

Yes, let me dig into that a little bit for you, in terms of the strong and weak categories. Actually, let me start with luxury, which was actually strong in the quarter not weak. So just to put that one out there. But in terms of the weakness by category, we saw many of our large categories were impacted, financial was down overall. And again, we just -- you can write off the economy, but we are hearing from business leaders that they are extremely concerned. And the lack of business confidence is growing in many, many segments, financial being one of them. Entertainment was down due to a lack of major releases in the quarter. Department stores had weak retail sales performance so that impacted us. And then real estate is down, mostly due to the lack of new development in the New York market and therefore, very, very tight inventory situation. In addition to luxury being strong in the quarter, we had nice performance from automotive and we also saw increased spending in transportation from the airlines.

Douglas M. Arthur - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore

So you're saying luxury was actually a positive?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Evercore

Yes, luxury was positive in the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from Kannan Venkateshwar from Barclays.

Kannan Venkateshwar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

I have one question on the cost trend. Essentially, the margins this quarter have been really low. So going forward, in terms of the mix, what should we assume in terms of margin for the fourth quarter and what drove the biggest portion of this decline this quarter?

James M. Follo

Management

Well, look, margin is always a function of our advertising revenues because when you lose $1 advertising revenue, you're losing at very high margin, we tend to think about as 80% to 90% margin. So there's always a story of how your advertising is performing. And look, while we're adding good dollars on the circulation side, we spend marketing dollars against that. Now incrementally, $1 subscription especially on the digital side is quite profitable. It is very hard to offset a weak environment like this. So I tend to not talk in future margin percentage just given how volatile our business is, given how high-margin the revenues come in and out of the business. So -- but the good news is, when it comes back, it comes back just as fast as it went out. But that's reason.

Kannan Venkateshwar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Okay. And in terms of circulation revenue. I guess now that there is a critical mass of digital subscribers, that should start impacting margins positively at some point. How much of that -- so from a change in margin perspective, could you quantify that in terms of what the impact could be?

James M. Follo

Management

It's hard to say because, as I said, as you're marketing to gain these dollars, while it's coming in at high margin, it's not coming in at 90% size. So when your revenues are down, it's largely driven by advertising, your margins will be under pressure. And so if you really wanted to focus on the margin, you really have to focus on kind of a long-term view of what we can do in that area. So that's really so much that I can say to that.

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

The economics of digital subscription, revenue are very similar to the economics of print circulation revenue. Their -- the marketing upfront costs, in a sense, get amortized over the life of the subscriber. So we're in this growth phase and we're seeing that kind of amortization play out?

James M. Follo

Management

Well, just to be clear. We don't actually calculate and we don't actually differ an amortized...

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

I was talking about the finance, I was talking about the economics.

James M. Follo

Management

The offering cost is meaningful against basically your high-margin going forward. But as always, we're in this growth phase. we're going to continue to spend money to drive that growth.

Operator

Operator

And next, we'll go to Leo Kulp from Citi.

Leo Kulp - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Two quick ones. First, can you give us some color about how you're thinking about the potential size of any returns of capital?

James M. Follo

Management

Leo, I wish I could. I just -- look, we recognize the issue. It's top of mind for us all. But this is something that really -- it's discussed at the Board and until we're prepared to make a statement, it's very hard to give that sort of view here. Just every -- all the inputs get put into it. And we'll -- as I said, we'll -- I think we'll come back in the early part of next year with a more holistic firm view on our capital allocation strategy.

Leo Kulp - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

All right, got it. And then second, can you talk a little bit about how the Chinese language website launch is going? And more broadly and longer-term, how do you think about the potential size and revenue impact of the Chinese and Portuguese language sites?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · JPMorgan

So we've seen growth, first and foremost, from users in the marketplace. We've actually exceeded the number of users and pages that we had set out to reach when we put the plan together. So we're very pleased that the marketplace is taking to our initiative. And we've also exceeded our revenue expectations from advertisers. There's been nice interest from a range of advertisers, mostly in the luxury segment but from other segments as well. But this is still -- it's a very small initiative. So I just want to make sure you understand that. And we're optimistic about the launch next year of the Brazilian marketplace. We think it has the same opportunities, more or less, that the China website has seen for us.

Leo Kulp - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And just one last one very quickly. Any update on the union negotiations?

James M. Follo

Management

Leo, I think, as you probably know, we're in mediation with the guild. And we're optimistic it will see a good outcome from mediation. [indiscernible] mediation, there's really nothing more we can say right now.

Operator

Operator

And our final question today will be a follow-up from Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Your comments about expecting costs in the fourth quarter up modestly, is that driven by extra marketing costs around your digital work you've done?

James M. Follo

Management

Well, it's a lot of the same things I've been talking about for a while. I mean, look, some things go away. The Olympics is gone. So that will help. But as I said, the commercial printing workup in New England, which drove 20% growth, doesn't come with an insignificant amount of cost. So that's in there. We continue to spend money against marketing efforts in our digital products, that's in there as well. There's a little bit of lumpiness in some other areas, but those are the primary drivers to cost increases. A lot of stuff that's down year-over-year, but those are the things that largely will result in what should be a relatively small increase in cost structure next quarter.

Craig A. Huber - Access 3

Analyst · Huber Research Partners

42, LLC: Also sorry for this also. I want to ask on the pension. Could you just be a little clearer, if you would, for this year, what's the total cash that you plan to put in pension this year? I know it's early for 2013 but what's your preliminary thought for next year, too?

Arthur O. Sulzberger

Management

Well, the only thing we're required to put in this year is about $40 million. So that will be in. And as I said in my remarks, before the end of the year, we will be making a determination of how much, if any, of a discretionary contribution we will put into the plans this year. Given the cash we have in the balance sheet, it could be -- it's something that we're looking carefully at. We haven't put a number out there yet. It'll be something that we'll discuss hopefully certainly at the Board level before we do that. I will say, however, that is not -- there is no required contribution to the qualified plan this year or likely the next year or 2. But the underfunded balance we came into the year with which was, on the qualified side, somewhere around $520 million is probably largely in that range. So there's reasons to want to attack that issue. But we've not put any number out there. And we will address it in the fourth quarter and we will talk about that on our next earnings call.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. And at this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Ms. Schwartz for any additional or closing marks.

Paula Schwartz

Management

Thank you, Melissa. If you have any additional questions, please give us a call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation.