Sumit Roy
Analyst · J.P. Morgan.
Look, the first metric I’m focused on, Anthony, is to see, can we start collecting 100% of what’s owed to us. And the good news here is that at least we are trending in that direction with every month that has gone by. And the second element of the good news that I’ve seen is, not only are we trending upwards in terms of what is owed for a given month, but some of these tenants have gone back and paid us on rents that they didn’t pay in the months of April, May and June. And so that continues to give us confidence that, at least they are feeling confident enough to pay us back rents that we hadn’t even agreed to in terms of a deferment agreement. But I want to put all of that in context here. Look, if the COVID-19 situation continues to deteriorate, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some of these guys would come back and talk to us and say, "Hey, sorry, we have to pause again because all of our stores have been shut down again." But as long as that doesn’t happen or that doesn’t happen in scale, then I think these trends are going to continue. And the first thing I’m going to be trying to look for is when are we reaching that 100% of the old rents for a given month, when are we getting that 100% collection? And as soon as we get that, then we start to focus on, okay, all the deferred amounts and the agreements that we have put in place, are they starting to pay back portions of it? Because if you look at the vast majority of the agreements that are already in place, most of the payback is 4.5 months, 4.7 months. Sorry, 4.5 months of deferred rent and the payback is within a 12-month period. So portions of it need to start getting paid back over the next few months. And so if we start to see them paying their monthly rent plus some of the deferred rent, that’s when I know we are back to normal. And the rest of it is all noise as far as I can see. I mean, look, it’s important to see what is happening in each state and all of that, but ultimately, it needs to translate to our operators being able to run their businesses and feel confident enough to make the call.