Adam Satterfield
Analyst · Deutsche Bank.
From a second quarter to first quarter standpoint, other than the second quarter of '20 when the world shutdown, we've not really seen a decrease in shipments. And that too kind of played into our general thinking, even years like 2009, 2016, 2019, weaker years, we still had some marginal improvement in shipments in the second quarter versus the first. And so right now, that's kind of trending flattish. We'll see how things shake out for the remainder of the period. And like I said, maybe we'll get some growth. And certainly, it will be out there as we put our mid quarter update, we'll put the final April update in our 10-Q. And if we see some continued acceleration this week that will be in the number, but we just don't see a big inflection point happening like we did in, say, 2017 that spurred that growth of '17 through '18 and what we saw in the back part of 2020 that continue to accelerate through '21 like it happened. And so we're still waiting for that point but we don't see it kind of on the near term. And so we just managed to kind of where we are. But yes, that's kind of the challenge in what we're seeing. It's partly why I mentioned earlier that our revenues in the second quarter are typically up 9%, 10% and that's why we always get so much margin improvement in the second quarter as well. And so that becomes the challenge as we manage through this particular period. But with respect to your other question on the customer base, I don't know that we're seeing significant loss other than that's some of what's going on underneath, I think, with some of the 3PL business, that they can leverage their carrier relationships and move some freight, and some of this is transactional as well. But they can take advantage of relationships and see who has capacity and who's got a cheaper price and move some business away. But that's some of the feedback where we've heard customers coming to us and saying, look, I need to do this to meet my own call center objectives, if there's an internal mandate to save X dollars that they've got to try to meet in some way. But generally speaking, that freight comes back to us. If we ever lose freight, it's on price, but we generally always gain it back for service quality and capacity down the road. So we're confident that -- but that trend will continue to play out again and that we'll see any of this freight loss eventually come back to us. It's just a matter of -- it seems like that's being pushed further down the road than the inflection point that we thought would happen beginning with this spring.