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Olin Corporation (OLN)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 27, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Olin’s fourth quarter 2008 earnings conference call. My name is Michel and I’ll be your coordinator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of today’s conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded for replay purpose. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today Mr. Joseph Rupp. Please proceed.

Joseph Rupp

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. With me this morning are John Fischer, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John McIntosh, Vice President and President of our Chlor Alkali Products Business; and Larry Kromidas our Assistant Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations. Last night we announced that earnings from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2008 were $47.2 million or $0.61 per diluted share compared to $29.6 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2007. Both our Chlor Alkali and Winchester businesses achieved a record level of earnings in 2008. Sales from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2008 were $434.2 million, compared to $404.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Chlor Alkali earned $86.5 million in the fourth quarter as favorable caustic soda pricing and cost performance allowed the business to overcome historically weak volumes. The fourth quarter operating rate of 67% was well below our initial estimate of the low 80% range and included a 49% operating rate in December. As a further point of reference our January month-to-date operating rate has been approximately 60%. Demand was lower from most major customer groups. In the fourth quarter Winchester benefited from stronger than normal fourth quarter demand and improved pricing. Our overall fourth quarter results include a $3.3 million, non-cash pretax, pension curtailment charge associated with the transition of a portion of our Winchester hourly workforce from the defined benefit plan to a defined contribution pension plan. For the full-year 2008 earnings from continuing operations were $157.7 million or $2.07 per diluted share, compared to $100.8 million or $1.36 per diluted share in 2007. Chlor Alkali achieved record full-year earnings of $328.3 million, compared to $237.3 million in 2007. Our Winchester’s record full-year earnings of $32.6 million, compared to…

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Joe. First I’d like to discuss a few items on the income statement. Selling and administration cost decreased by $1.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. The decrease reflects the absence of the majority of the SG&A expenses from the acquired Pioneer operations, which were present in the fourth of 2007, but we’re eliminated late in 2007 and early in 2008. I would remind everyone that these costs were identified as the significant synergy opportunity at the time of the acquisition. For the full-year 2008, other corporate and unallocated cost decreased $5.2 million from 2007 levels. This reduction primarily reflects a lower level of asset retirement costs and lower level of legal and legal related settlement costs. During 2008, based on revised assumptions we’ve reduced the asset retirement obligations that have been previously recorded by $1.5 million. This reduction relates primarily to one legacy chemical manufacturing location. During 2007, we increased asset retirement obligations that have previously been recorded by $3 million. For legal and legal related settlement costs are primarily associated with legacy environmental matters. Fourth quarter and full-year 2008 environmental investigatory and remediation expenses were $6.5 million and $27.7 million respectively. These compare favorably to the $8.6 million and $37.9 million of expenses for the fourth quarter and full-year 2007. The decrease in 2008 charges compared to 2007 relate primarily to a $7.9 million increase in costs in 2007 at a former waste disposal sites which was based on revised remediation estimates resulting from negotiations with government agency. Olin’s environmental charges relate primarily to remedial and investigatory activities associated with former waste sites and past operations. We currently anticipate that 2009 charges for environmental investigatory and remedial activities will be similar to the 2008 level. Total company defined benefit…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions)Your first question comes from Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Just a clarification, $3.3 million unusual non-cash pension curtailment charge? Does that show up in the corporate other pension income or in the Winchester line?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

It shows up in corporate and other. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: So, that keeps that run rate decline like $4.5 million, $5 million which is what it had been. Then you had mentioned, despite sales being significantly higher in the fourth quarter, you had some other cost that impacted Winchester’s profitability because frankly we would have though that income would have been a little bit higher given the higher sales, but you are expecting the first quarter of ‘09 to be inline with a very strong first quarter of ’08 on a Winchester side? I guess, you guys have been known for providing relatively tight ranges of a nickel for quarterly, but given the uncertainties you are proving at $0.15 range. Is there a rule of form that we could apply in terms of Chlor Alkali operating rates, which is what I believe the significant swing factors between the $0.50 and $0.65? Do you have any sense as to, if operating rates come in at 60% industry-wide, you are at $0.50. When they come in at 75%, you’re at 65%. Is there something that you could help us out with in terms of our industry operating rate expectations for the first quarter?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Frank, the reason we gave the range is because of that uncertainty. As we pointed out in January running in the 60’s at this point in time, and we announced that we were at 67% in the fourth quarter of last year and I think what we would say is obviously with higher operating rates we are going to be upper at upper-end of that range, and with lower operating rates we are going to be at the lower-end of the range. We thought that, that was the best way to try to explain our uncertainty here. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Well at this point you haven’t seen the pickup, but I guess there is an expectation as we hit the warmer months of March, April etc. that you would see meaningfully higher operating rates, is that your expectation?

John McIntosh

Analyst

So, that’s what’s driving the major uncertainty on the volume side. When you look at the first quarter we do expect, towards the end of the first quarter we would expect to see some normal improvement based on seasonal demand, but we also have a major outage at the Macintosh facilities scheduled for 10 days in the first half of March. It is our normal every two year, preventive outage. So that why haven’t impact on first quarter volumes in the other direction. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay terrific, and then John Fischer you talked about a CapEx in ’09, roughly $70 million. It could be as high as $70 million, lower than ‘08 and you’re ending the year with essentially no net debt. What are your prior uses of cash in 2009?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

In this environment Frank, I think our priority uses right now is to be very cautious. To give you some flavor on the capital spending, there is probably $65 million to $70 million of carry over capital that I described from the two big items, plus Henderson, plus the number of small things. So, as we said it would be no less than a $110 million. So, it wouldn’t surprise as it was higher than that and that’s obviously, again well above depreciation which would create a use of cash. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Understood, but depending on where the earnings stream some in, you still maybe nicely cash flow positive in 2009, you are ending the year with no debt. So, at this point the objective is to build cash in the balance sheet?

Joseph Rupp

Management

Frank, as we’ve said, obviously we think that the company has the opportunity to grow on the chemical side. I think to say that where we wouldn’t be looking at opportunities in this environment would be unfair. We are looking at opportunities, but we’re going to do that prudently.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Christopher Butler - Sidoti & Company. Christopher Butler - Sidoti & Company: First question is, according to some of the caustic compounders that have announced or pre-announced. It seems that demand for all plastics kind of disappeared in early to mid-November. Does that kind of jive with your utilization as it progress through the fourth quarter?

Joseph Rupp

Management

Ours was maybe a little later in the quarters than that Chris, but we’ve been pretty consistent with that, with the second half of the fourth quarter. Christopher Butler - Sidoti & Company: Also coming from with caustic companies, that seems to be normal economic weakness that I think we all kind of expect right now, but it’s being exacerbated by an inventory correction that’s going on that at some point here, hopefully during that the first quarter should lead-up and improve demand relatively for the second quarter?

Joseph Rupp

Management

I think that’s true. The vinyls people that we talk to, will say that for the most part everybody in the chain has run their inventory levels down to almost zero levels and that there isn’t any buffer out there should there be any even incrementally increase in demand. So, we would expect if that demand increase happens, it will be translatable backwards on an almost immediate basis. Most of the vinyls people that we’ve talk to have some degree of optimism about improvement in the business in the out months, but so far that optimism we have not seen translated in the orders. Christopher Butler - Sidoti & Company: Circling back to guidance a little bit, if we can try to get a more a little bit more clarity, here understanding that there is a lot of moving parts about a [Inaudible] but if we were to gets the operating rates from the 60% that you see in January, back up to where you were for the fourth quarter in that 67% range now. Now would that be putting us towards the top-end of your guidance or would we need to see further improvement from there to reach the upper-end?

John McIntosh

Analyst

Chris, this is John. If you look at fourth quarter operating rates of 67% and we’ve got higher ECU’s and generally input costs in the Chlor Alkali business for electricity are lower in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter than in the second and third. I would say the answer to your question is, yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Judd - Greenwich Consultants.

Michael Judd - Greenwich Consultants

Analyst

If you look at the profitability in the Chlor Alkali, let’s say and EBITDA per short-term basis. This is refers to the previous question there, and you think about those lower electricity prices and natural gas prices and you think about the potentially higher ECU realizations in the first quarter. Can you give us a sense of, what we could anticipate on a say sequential basis in terms of the change in the margin? I realize its sensitive to the operating rates, but you’ve already discussed that. Could see a $50 or $60, $70 improvement in the EBITDA for short-term, which is I guess cash basis?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

Let me try to answer that. First I’d say, I don’t think that the expectation that we have is that ECU netbacks are going to increase as much from Q4 to Q1 as the increase from Q3 to Q4. So, that kind of improvement isn’t the cards. The other thing is electricity costs, in our system running at these rates is essentially flat quarter-over-quarter and as we got out into the second and third quarter if rates improve, because we pay more seasonally, we also pay more at higher operating rates because we are peaking power. You would actually see that probably go down, not up.

Michael Judd - Greenwich Consultants

Analyst

On the pricing side, can you -- because we’ve seen caustic contract and spot prices actually come down in January and I realize that you guys operate on a lag basis. Is there anything particular about the contracts that you have? Last year, we learned something new about the way that the contracts were structured. Is there anything in this environment where prices appear to be beginning to rollover, where the dynamics might be something we wouldn’t anticipate?

Joseph Rupp

Management

The only comment I would make in that regard is that, we have said that a lot of our contracts that have annual limitations on what pricing can do. Typically, attempt to re-clock themselves with the beginning of a calendar year. So we expect to see some improvement from that phenomenon in the first quarter. We also expect on the opposite side of that to see some furtherer decrease in chlorine pricing. The net of all of that movement though, as we said in our remarks is that we expect ECU prices overall to improve in the first quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Yang - Oppenheimer.

Edward Yang - Oppenheimer

Analyst

Just following up on the previous question; looking beyond the first quarter considering that, again contract and spot prices are starting to comedown for the industry. Is it reasonable to assume that sequentially in the second quarter on and the rest of 2009 that you will see some price moderation?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

I would say that, I can’t predict that at this point in time. The only thing that I can rely on is what I see other people that following the industry and predict in our future quarters and future years. Everybody that predicts the industry does show that caustic prices will tend to drop-off through the balance of 2009. However, there is still a big unknown out there is to what the economy is going to do and what in other parts of the world, especially China and the far East is going to happen there, which will have some impact on caustic exports out of that country. So, there is a lot of unknowns and I wouldn’t try to predict for Olin system with no more visibility than we have anymore than we’ve said in our remarks.

Edward Yang - Oppenheimer

Analyst

Well, John I would say that your margin performance especially in light of the utilization that we saw in the fourth quarter was nothing sort of a phenomenal, but if utilization in operating rates remain relatively low in the 60s and 70s, I think last downturn you were still somewhat in the 80s or so. Is it reasonable to think that the industry or even Olin would just stay at those relatively low operating rates and keep prices high or why won’t you see pricing moderate to adjust for relevantly low utilization rates?

John Fischer

Chief Financial Officer

I think what’s going to determine that is, what kind of any and how aggressive or rebound there is in demand for chlorine and if the market segments that consume chlorine rebound, quickly which is not the current thinking by anybody that’s looking at the vinyls industry or the Urethanes industry, or housing or automobile starts or any of the other macroeconomic indicators. As long as that doesn’t happened then operating rates are going to stay dampened and that’s going to mitigate because of the pressures on the caustic supply side, and to mitigate any movement down in caustic pricing.

Edward Yang - Oppenheimer

Analyst

Finial question just for Joe, again on the M&A side, when you do have a bit more visibility and less caution in terms of preserving your capital? Could you remind us, what kind of strategic assets you believe would set well with Olin.

Joseph Rupp

Management

Edward, what we’ve said in the past is that, in the electrochemistry base Chlor Alkali or related types of products would be the type of products that we’d be interested in. Downstream, bleach, hydrochloric acid etc. and electrochemical types of companies.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I’ll turn it back to Mr. Rupp, for closing remarks.

Joseph Rupp

Management

We thank you for joining us this morning and we hope you’ll join us in April when we announce the results from our first quarter 2009. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.