Earnings Labs

Olin Corporation (OLN)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Apr 26, 2013

$27.30

+2.02%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.57%

1 Week

-2.41%

1 Month

+2.50%

vs S&P

-1.92%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Olin's First Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joseph Rupp, Chairman, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. With me are John Fischer, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John McIntosh, Senior Vice President of Operations; and Larry Kromidas, our Assistant Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations. Last night we announced that net income in the first quarter of 2013 was $40.5 million or $0.50 per diluted share, which compares to $38.7 million or $0.48 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2012. Sales in the first quarter of 2013 were $630 million compared to $507.2 million in the first quarter of 2012. During the first quarter of 2013, Olin generated $107.9 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is the highest first quarter level in the history of the company. The record adjusted EBITDA was driven by strong volumes and reduced costs in the Winchester business, contributions from the Chemicals Distribution business acquired in the third quarter of 2012. We now believe that during 2013, Olin can generate adjusted EBITDA in the range of $415 million to $445 million. In the first quarter of 2013, the Chlor Alkali business experienced lower demand and lower year-over-year prices. Sales volume of chlorine and caustic soda declined approximately 1% in the first quarter of 2013 when compared to the first quarter of 2012, while ECU netbacks in the quarter declined 3% compared to the first quarter of 2012. The pretax contribution from the hydrochloric acid sales declined approximately $8 million from the record quarterly level in the first quarter of 2012. The elevated level of commercial demand that the Winchester business began to experience in the fourth quarter of 2012 continued through the first quarter of 2013. First quarter 2013 commercial sales increased in excess of 40% compared to the first quarter of 2012 and, as a result, Winchester achieved the…

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Thanks, Joe. First I'd like to discuss a few items on the income statement. Selling and administrative expenses increased $5.4 million or 12% in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012. This increase was due to the additional administration expenses of acquired KA Steel business of $2.5 million, higher stock-based compensation costs primarily related to mark-to-market adjustments, and higher benefit costs. As a point of reference, every $1 change in the Olin stock price has an approximately $800,000 impact on stock-based compensation expense. Selling and administration expenses as a percentage of sales were 8% in the first quarter of 2013 compared to 9% in the first quarter of 2012. First quarter 2013 charges to income for environmental, investigatory and remedial activities were $1.8 million. First quarter 2012 charges to income for environmental, investigatory and remedial expenses were $2.8 million. These charges related primarily to expected future investigatory and remedial activities associated with past manufacturing operations and former waste disposal sites. Second quarter 2013 expenses for environmental, investigatory and remedial activities are expected to increase in the $2 million to $4 million range compared to the second quarter of 2012. We now project that full year 2013 expenses for environmental, investigatory and remedial activities to be in the $15 million to $20 million range. Full year expenses for environmental, investigatory and remedial activities 2012 were $8.3 million. As a reminder, the 2012 level of environmental, investigatory and remedial expense was significantly below the historic level of $20 million to $25 million. On a total company basis, defined benefit pension plan income was $5 million in the first quarter of 2013 compared to $4.9 million in the first quarter of 2012. We are not required to make any cash contributions to domestic defined benefit pension plan in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

I remember the days when we only had to worry about Winchester in the third quarter but had very impressive results here. I apologize, Joe, did you say that you expected Winchester for the year at $85 million to $100 million? I wasn't sure I got that right.

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

We said that ongoing that we actually have a business that we believe ongoing was $85 million to $100 million business.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Ongoing. I mean, because what you did $31 million this quarter, you're looking at another $31 million in the second quarter, and then obviously we get into the seasonally strong third quarter but then again you're running flat out right now. I mean, so you had $90 million plus just in the first 3 quarters, it looks like. So that $85 million to $100 million, that's not referring to 2013, correct? That's referring to...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

That is correct, Frank. That's correct.

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Yes, we said, Frank, after the completion of the relocation project we expect to be able to generate that on a recurring basis in normal demand.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay, all right. And at this point you're sold out for the balance of the year. So normal will not be a 2013 event then? All right. Now, can you explain a little bit on the hydrochloric acid. I know frac-ing is a big use of that, what has happened to that market to show the material drop-off?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Frank, this is John. A couple of things I would say. The HCL market is really impacted by demand and you mentioned oil and gas demand, and the oil patch is down. We've also seen a decrease in mining, which is another area where HCL is used pretty significantly. The other thing that really impacts HCL pricing is by-product production. A lot of other chemical operations such as MDI, TDI, fluorocarbons and others generate a significant amount of by-product acid. And by-product acid rates are up significantly over the last several months. And that's really impacted the supply side. So, HCL was really hit with kind of the worst of all situations, reduced demand from some of the key markets that it serves and increased supply because of by-product acid levels.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

All right, that's very helpful. And John if I could stay with you, just the last thing on the turnaround impact. It looks like that's $0.08 a share negative for Q2. How would you describe your turnaround schedule for the balance of the year? 3 facilities in 1 quarter seems rather high, was there a thought to maybe spacing it out a little bit more or basically they had come to kind of their end of service that you needed to get it done sooner rather than later?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Let me talk about the 3 in one quarter first. That's atypical for us. One of the 3 was delayed from the fall of last year, the Niagara outage. And we really delayed that because we were not in the position to take that out, it's with all of the capacity related projects we were working on, shutting down capacity at Augusta, converting the capacity and reducing it at Charleston. So we really just had to postpone that outage from the fall of last year into this year. Normally, we would balance our outages out a little better but our northern plants really have a pretty limited window for outages. They can't do them in the first quarter or the fourth quarter because of weather. And we try not to schedule major planned outages in the peak season, obviously, because of seasonal demand requirements that we have. So this was an atypical quarter for us both in terms of the cost impact of $10 million and the ECU equivalents lost because of the outage, which was about 3% to 4% of operating capacity. When we look at the year going forward, we really have no more outages as significant as the ones in the second quarter. We have a couple of small outages late in the third quarter in preparation for the end of the seasonal demand period and some other work that's going on. But this is by far, the most significant outage impact we'll see during the course of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company. Christopher W. Butler - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Joe, if I missed it, as far as the timing and progress of the HCL and the bleach facility, as far as this year goes, could you give me an update there?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

We started up our third HyPure Bleach plant which is at Henderson, Nevada late in the second -- late in the first quarter with optimization continuing as we approach the seasonal peak period. So that plant is up and we have all 3 of our HyPure plant bleach is now operational across our system. We are actually -- as we speak, this week, in the start-up phases of the HCL plant, which is also being brought online at Henderson, Nevada, we expect that plant to be up and operational very soon, and then we will optimize the operation of that facility as we move through the second quarter. Christopher W. Butler - Sidoti & Company, LLC: And did I hear right that those are not being included in the EBITDA guidance for the full year?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

No. We just pointed out that they will not contribute a full year's worth of EBITDA so that there will be incrementally more EBITDA from those next year as we move forward. Christopher W. Butler - Sidoti & Company, LLC: I see, I see. And looking at Winchester being strong, and if I'm not mistaken, you've kind of updated your outlook on Winchester to now include the fourth quarter, which you didn't in previous conference calls, if I remember correctly, and you also raised the expectations on synergies from KA Steel? Could you talk about those in terms of lifting the EBITDA guidance by $5 million? It sounds like you might have been able to lift it by more?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Yes. It's hard to forecast a surge from the Winchester business. We were asked in the last call what we thought. In that call, we said, we thought it would go through the third quarter. This now call -- we've announced it's going to the fourth quarter. I think that what we've laid out is our view of a full year as best we can at this point in time, Chris. And the two big issues for us going forward in Chlor Alkali is we've got pricing announced on both sides, both in chlorine and caustic, and ultimately, one or both of those are going to have to take traction going forward. Christopher W. Butler - Sidoti & Company, LLC: And just finally on the cash side of the equation, you pointed out a compelling case for good cash flow, could you talk about what you intend to do with that to generate your holder value?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

We continue -- we're still interested in bolt-on acquisitions or investments that work near within our core businesses. It would help us to continue to enhance shareholder value. In this first quarter, we had to use some cash to support the high-level working capital from Winchester, which is a good thing. And if we can't find bolt-on acquisitions that makes sense, we will continue to have to evaluate share repurchase or dividend ways of providing capital reward back to our shareholders. Christopher W. Butler - Sidoti & Company, LLC: And from a valuation and strategic combination point of view, would downstream acquisitions make more sense or less sense than Chlor Alkali acquisitions?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

We've always felt naturally if there was any more consolidation of Chlor Alkali that would be something that we're clearly interested in downstream for us more hydrochloric acid, more bleach -- totally interested in.

Operator

Operator

That is question is from Herb Hardt of Monness. Herbert Hardt - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc., Research Division: Can you tell me, is there a sense of double ordering on Winchester, and if so, do you have any idea how much?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Monness

Yes, we have experienced in past surges incidents of double ordering, and we don't really have a good handle on how much that is. I would say to you, that the $495 million backlog probably had some softness in it. But based on where we are today, we won't experience any ramifications from that until the surge ends which as Joe just said, will not occur until 2014.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Don Carson of Susquehanna Financial.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

Joe, I haven't seen any 9 millimeter at my local sporting goods emporium for 3 months. So the search does seem to be going on. Is it law enforcement that's exacerbating things here as they sort of used to buy in a just-in-time basis or finding out just in time as 2 to 3 months?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

Well, I think law enforcement has joined the party, so to speak. That's not the right way of saying it. But everybody has a concern of not being able to get ammunition and so they've upped their requirements and their demands.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

And again, would you think, you mentioned a $30 million Oxford relocation, I mean that was the number you put out, I guess 1.5 years ago, at much lower volumes. I mean, what you think at current surge time volumes, what could that relocation be worth to you in terms of cost benefits?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

We haven't quantified that. But I think your observation, Don, is naturally correct if we were to stay at these higher levels, there will be more benefit because just strictly the ability to able to operate at a high-level at a significantly lower cost.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

And then the final question, Winchester, post-surge you say you got a business with $85 million to $100 million of annual EBITDA potential, is that something large enough? You think you could spin off to shareholders or somehow do something with?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

Well, Don, we certainly will have a business that's worth a lot more than what it was several years ago and provides us a multiple of options, I think, in the future.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

Okay. And just a question on Chlor Alkali. John, we've got a lot of plant capacity for the second half of the year. Some of the existing producers are talking about maybe making some offsetting closures when the new capacity comes up. But how do you see pricing unfolding in the second half of the year? And what volume impact does the Oxy [ph] start-up in a new Johnsonville have and the new Westlake capacity, what volume impact will that have on your business?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

I guess -- I would say that I don't have the same negative outlook on this capacity as a lot of people do. And that's really driven by the fact that unless we have -- as long as we have operating rates across the industry that are reflected in the mid-80s to the 90, this additional capacity coming online isn't going to create costing that is surplus because there isn't chlorine demand associated with caustic produced that doesn't have a home. We do expect and we believe the market in terms of projections, has forecasted in that there is some capacity coming online. But when you look at the North American chlor-alkali industry, they're in a unique position in their ability to export chlorine derivatives, offshore, because of competitive energy, pricing in the Gulf Coast. And so, I think that, to some respect, mitigates additional capacity coming online. And when you look at caustic import/export balances, for the last 5 years, the North America has been a net exporter of caustic. Most of it to South America to the tune of 1.5 million tons a year net export. So, and we will retain that market as a place to put caustic because on a cost basis, we're the most cost-effective producer to service that requirement. So we do expect, especially when we come out of seasonal demand periods and new capacity comes online, we do expect to see some dampening maybe in prices but we don't expect to see something significant that will have an impact much into 2014.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

And what about your volumes with -- 2 of these new start-ups taking business away from you?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial

Well, we will lose business associated with some of the start-up activity that's going on. But we just didn't learn this yesterday and part of our focus on increasing the amount of chlorine and -- that we move into either bleach and/or HCL, which now represents 30% of our total capacity, is an outgrowth of the fact that we recognize that we really need to be moving our products, our base Chlor Alkali ECUs, into value-added products downstream.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gregg Goodnight of UBS.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

My first question was, in terms of this surge, you've said that the surge will go through the end of this year as a minimum. Looking back historically, over the last month we had '08, '09, the surge seemed to last a couple of years. Is there any reason to believe that the demand period wouldn't be extended at least equivalent to what it had been in the past?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

I think the safest thing for us to say, Gregg, would be what you're observation was, we feel that the surge last time lasted 6 quarters and then started to come down. And it's difficult to forecast these things because they move to different issues that drive it. So we feel comfortable saying what we said in our comments right now. And I think historically, as a reference point to last one, lasted 6 quarters.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Second question, as you continue through this centerfire relocation, have you been able to increase the instantaneous rates which you're able to produce ammo, or has it been fairly constant or have actually have a little bump your ability to produce product?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

We have had improvement in our productivity at our new facility.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Can you quantify that for us?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

We wouldn't quantify -- we just said that we're very pleased with it.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay. Last question, for John, you gave a little bit of detail in terms of your electrical cost improvement, could you remind me what you said in terms of year-over-year where you're looking at electrical cost?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · UBS

We just said that the first quarter 2013 cost were equal to 2012 levels.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay. But on intensity basis, you're reducing the electrical intensity per ECU ton, am I correct there?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · UBS

That's correct, Gregg.

Gregg A. Goodnight - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

And can you quantify that at all? Or...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

We typically do not quantify those.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Andy Cash of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

Andrew W. Cash - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Just a question back on Winchester. There was an article a few weeks back in the New York Times talking about how most of the increase in firearms is with existing gun owners, so unless their usage of ammo increases dramatically, I'm just kind of curious, where's all this ammo going? I mean, is there a point where the inventories just -- and the clients are overflowing and the gun racks are overflowing? So do you know where the stuff is going? Are they shooting the bullets?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

We think a lot of it is continuing to be shot. There is some, that historically, does get -- people buy it and store it and have it. And as -- what we forecasted last time was that when the peak ended, that there would be a downturn. Last time we forecast about 20% downturn over 2-year period. It's what we thought would happen. But the reality of it, Andy, there is a lot of ammunition being shot as we speak at this point in time.

Andrew W. Cash - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Do you have any idea what that number is? I mean, has it gone up by 10%, 20%?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

We don't have -- all we can -- ours is a qualitative from just inputs that we get from those that are shooting around the country.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Edward Yang of Oppenheimer. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Just -- I know you provided a lot of guidance on Winchester but just looking at the operating margin which move to like 16.6% versus 8.5% in 2012, it seems that there is probably like 200 basis points, which is from the relocation. So, I mean, of the rest, how much of that is kind of sustainable or is it just volume related?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Oppenheimer

The amount that comes from the cost savings is sustainable and that will grow. That is the point we're trying to make. We said that this year, we think we'll realize about $15 million of benefit from that and that that will be at least $30 million when the project is complete. And if you use a normal level of sales number, you're going to get about 500 basis points long-term of margin improvement from the relocation.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dmitry Silversteyn of Longbow Research.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Question on the chlorine comment you made going into the TiO2 market. I think you said it was down by about 24% year-over-year, is that correct?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

That is correct.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Was that sort of reflective of the industry demand being down or was that some share loss? Are you deemphasizing that market in any way, as you're moving to bleach...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

Industry demand down.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Okay. So that is reflective of what the production levels are for the TiO2 producers.

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

That's correct.

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Longbow Research

That's correct.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

You mentioned that on your caustic being exported and being -- the industry being that exporter, are you a player in that export market and is that a meaningful outlet for your caustic demand? And the reason I'm asking this, when you talked about people's ability to export chlorine derivatives and therefore not being that impacted by a new capacity coming online, unfortunately, there's also caustic component to chlorine production. So I'm just wondering if the caustic export demand is equally strong and are you a participant in that market?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

We have participated on a limited basis, historically. Part of that was because, we're contracted -- very high percentage of our business is contracted. And we don't do much spot business or have much volume to put on the export market, typically. But we have done some, historically. My point is that, the industry in total, the North American industry in total, has a very significantly growing caustic demand area in South America driven by pulp-and-paper growth and caustic demand in that segment, that we are logically suited to fill that market, to meet that demand and the North American industry will continue to have that opportunity.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

So as you look at this new capacity coming on stream and increased co-production of caustic, are you sort of proactively looking at -- maybe not contracts but maybe at least establishing relationships so you can push this product into the export market when the need arrives?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

That is an opportunity for us and the other opportunity that we have quite frankly is our KA Steel acquisition affords us a chance to sell caustic into the distribution market, which is another channel that we, historically, Olin historically, hasn't have that same kind of access to. So I think those are 2 areas where we have the opportunity to help ourselves.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Got it. Got it. Switching gears really quickly to Winchester. Demand, obviously, is very strong. It's going to stay strong through the year. As a mentioned, you're selling everything you can produce, so I'm assuming your inventories are pretty depleted. Has there been any thought given to running the [indiscernible] plant that -- a little bit past the original closure time to at least until the search lasts or does that not enter into your considerations at all?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

There's a limited amount that we can do on that. Because most of that equipment is all being sent to Oxford.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Okay. So you're not duplicating [indiscernible] all the time you're actually...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

Unfortunately we don't have 2 fully integrated plants.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Got you. Got you. And just a follow up on the comment you made on the lack of successful of the chlorine price increases. Sort of, outside of a seasonal pick-up and demand, which I am assuming you're seeing, what else needs to change for that, for at least portions of the $16 a ton to go into the market, and has there been -- you talk about it's not being supported, has there been sort of a 1 or 2 biggest fund supporters?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

Well, let me just talk about the dynamics that we think are likely to change that will support and improve chlorine pricing. In an earlier question about the TiO2 segment and the fall-off in demand for that segment in the quarter, we don't believe that that is a recurring demand level for TiO2 and if you look at what the TiO2 producers are saying, they are predicting that, that's going to get better. We believe that vinyls demand is going to improve driven by housing starts and other consumption, other markets where vinyl is consumed. Then if you look at the forecast for North American vinyls operating rates, their forecast to be up and over 90% in the next 2 quarters. So we believe that is consistent with dynamics which might support chlorine pricing improvement. And then we have what we believe will be a record bleach season in front of us and HCL demand and capacity available to us with our investments in new projects that will help us well on the chlorine side. So we believe those things are very possible as the market moves into the end of the peak season and those things would all support chlorine pricing increase.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research

Got it. So would you need another price increase announcement or you just continue to work the $16 that you already have in the market.

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Longbow Research

First, we would work what we've got in the market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Alex Yefremov of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Aleksey V. Yefremov - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I just wanted to ask on the Winchester, if there's any opportunity for inter-year price increases. I know usually it's annual process but given the strength and demand, could you...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

We introduced 2% price increase effective June 1.

Aleksey V. Yefremov - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

So that's on top of your annual -- and how large was the increase that you implemented at the end of 2012?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

We implemented January 1, 3% to 5%, we've increased -- we've added an additional 2% in June.

Aleksey V. Yefremov - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Great. And you mentioned in the prepared remarks, that you expect ECU pricing to increase about $10 to $30 per ton in the third quarter, if I got that correctly. Is that a factor of the current caustic soda price increases that are on the table or basically to what extent this is a done deal versus expectation?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

It's reflective of our expectation that the market will recognize some part of the caustic price increases that were announced and we forecast between $10 and $30.

Aleksey V. Yefremov - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I just wanted to ask you about regional trends in the U.S. caustic soda market. Have you benefited from relatively tighter East Coast caustic soda supply demand and does it offset somewhat weaker pricing on the West Coast for you?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

We have benefited from a lot of events in the Eastern U.S. that have impacted demand-and-supply disruptions, that have occurred in the first half of the year. We don't sell near as much caustic on the West Coast. And in all honesty, the West Coast caustic market is really served by product that's coming from China. So the benefit we've had, and we have had some meaningful results because of it being in the Eastern U.S.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Roberts of UBS.

John Roberts

Analyst · UBS

Joe, you used the term erratic demand when you were discussing Chlor Alkali. Was that specifically referring to say the TiO2 segment or was it broad-based and is it the timing of the way orders are coming in or is it across customer markets? Would you just give some granularity what you meant by an erratic...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

John, I'll give you some granularity but it's pretty broad.

John L. McIntosh

Analyst · UBS

This is John McIntosh. It's really broad, it's more than just one market segment and it's month-by-month. I mean, the erratic pattern that we've seen creates a situation where we really have trouble optimizing where we produce the product based on where we're going to move it for ultimate sales. So that erratic demand creates a cost tail to be in our system, and just creates forecasting problems for us and inconsistent demand across the regions in the country.

John Roberts

Analyst · UBS

You think it's reflecting the supply chain or customers anticipating the price changes or...

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · UBS

I think it's more reflective of supply disruptions and supply-chain-related issues and downstream uncertainty in the markets that our customers are serving than anything else.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Richard O'Reilly of Revere Associates.

Richard O'Reilly

Analyst · Revere Associates

Several quick questions. The first is a math one. If you look on at your ECUs year-over-year, if you could add back the freight cost, what would your gross ECU have looked like?

John E. Fischer

Analyst · Revere Associates

That's not a number we typically disclose.

Richard O'Reilly

Analyst · Revere Associates

Okay. Okay. Second quick question is, yesterday we saw an article in the Journal about GE credit withdrawing its support of gun shops. If you were to see that extend to other financial suppliers, will you be in a position to have to support your customers to a great extent than normal?

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Revere Associates

The largest part of our commercial ammunition sales do not go to gun shops and distributors but go to retailers and large sporting-goods stores.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Rupp for any closing remarks.

Joseph D. Rupp

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

We'd like to thank you for joining us today and we look forward to reporting our results at the end of the second quarter in July. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.