Randall Weisenburger
Analyst · Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan
Thank you, John. I'm pleased to say that the fourth quarter was a great finish to a solid recovery year. Again, this quarter, the world could be described as having three speeds. But this quarter, they were all moving forward. In the quarter, we experienced year-over-year growth in each of our marketing disciplines and in every industry group to which we provide services. On a sequential or quarter-to-quarter basis, we also experienced improvement in every geographical market we operate in. Even the markets with negative growth were less negative. Financially, we continue to focus on cash flow generation and return on capital. In 2010, we again demonstrated strong performance on these metrics, which I'll cover in more detail later. The overall revenue result for the quarter exceeded our expectations with total year-over-year growth of just under 10%, bringing revenue for the quarter to $3.6 billion. EBITDA increased almost 11% to $460 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 12.8%. That was up about 10 basis points from last year. EBITDA for the full year was $1.53 billion, and our margin was in line with our expectations coming into the year at 12.2%, which was flat with last year. And our operating income, or EBIT, increased 10% to $439.6 million, also resulting in a margin improvement of about 10 basis points. Net interest expense for the quarter was $32.1 million, up $3.5 million from Q4 last year and up about $2.3 million from Q3 2010. The increase versus the third quarter was primarily reflective of this being the first full quarter of interest on the $1 billion of 10-year senior notes we issued midway through the third quarter and increased stock repurchases in Q4, partially offset by the positive effect of the interest rate swap we entered into in Q3 on our 2016 senior notes as well as lower borrowing under our revolving credit facilities and improvements in our working capital management efforts. On the tax front, our reported tax rate for the quarter was 34.2%, bringing the full year rate up to 34.1%, which was up slightly from last year. We do expect there to be some upward pressure on tax rates with law changes in several states and various international markets. As a result, we currently expect to see our reported tax rate increase 20 to 30 basis points in 2011. Net income for the quarter increased 7.4% to $246.5 million, and our diluted earnings per share increased 13.7% to $0.83 a share. The diluted share count for the quarter was 295.7 million shares. Looking into our revenue performance in more detail. With regards to FX, on a year-over-year basis, the dollar experienced mixed results versus our major currencies. Strengthening against the euro and the pound and weakening versus the yen, the real and the Canadian and Australian dollars, the net result was a negative FX impact for the quarter of $41.9 million, or about 1.3%. Looking ahead, the breaks stay where they are. We expect FX to be positive about 0.5% in Q1 and a little more than 1% for the full year. Revenue growth from acquisitions, net of dispositions, increased revenue by $37.5 million in the quarter, or about 1.1%. This was due primarily to the acquisition of a controlling interest in ImpactBBDO in the Middle East at the end of 2009. We did complete eight small acquisitions during the fourth quarter. And in January, we closed the acquisition of Communispace. Also, in early February, we completed the acquisition of additional 27% interest in our long-time affiliate in Australia and New Zealand, the Clemenger Group, bringing our ownership up to about 75%. As a result of this acquisition, under U.S. GAAP guidelines, we expect to record a remeasurement gain on our historic investment in Q1 of approximately $120 million. Also in Q4, we completed the sale of two small agencies in an ongoing strategic review of our businesses. We also expect to complete several additional divestitures and dispositions in 2011 beginning in the first quarter. The agencies that are currently under consideration for disposal have revenue of about $300 million, which is approximately equal to the revenue of our businesses that we've recently acquired. In addition to these strategic reviews, we've initiated a number of actions to gain further operating efficiencies, including the consolidation of agency operations in several smaller markets, the establishment of several shared service centers to increase the centralization of IT and other operating function and a number of real estate consolidation. As a result of these actions, we expect to record severance, real estate and other charges in Q1 of between $90 million and $110 million. With regard to organic growth, we had a very strong quarter. As we previously mentioned, we saw growth across every industry sector that we serve and improvements quarter-to-quarter in every geographic market. Driven by the combination of new business wins, the improving economic environment and an increase in year-end project revenue, organic revenue in the quarter grew by 10%, or $325 million. As we've noted over the last few quarters, the above gross figures include the effect of the loss of the Chrysler account in the first quarter of 2010. That loss had a negative impact on our global organic growth in the quarter of about 1.5% and our U.S. organic growth of approximately 3%. Turning to our mix of business. Brand advertising accounted for 47% of our revenue, and Marketing Services, 53%. As with their respective growth rates, brand advertising had organic growth of 10.9% and Marketing Services was up 9.2%. Within the Marketing Services category, CRM had 8.3% organic growth. Within the sector of our Field Marketing, Branding and Events businesses, all had outstanding performances, each with double-digit growth. Public Relations had organic growth of just over 7%, and Specialty Communications was up 15%, with almost every agency in the sector having solid growth. Our geographic mix of business in the quarter was 51% U.S. and 49% international. In the United States, revenue increased $206 million, or 12.6%. Acquisitions, net of dispositions, reduced revenue by about $1.2 million, or about 0.1%. And organic growth was exceptionally strong at 12.7%, or about $207 million. This was obviously a great quarter that benefited from strong new business wins, new initiatives in the digital area and some pent-up spending. International revenue increased $114.9 million, or about 7%. FX decreased revenue $41.9 million, or about 2.6%. Acquisitions, net of disposition, increased revenue by $38.7 million, and organic growth was 7.2%, or $118 million. Internationally, we had for strong performances in China, India, Singapore and Russia. In developed Asia, South Korea had another positive quarter, while Japan was negative. And with the exception of the Netherlands, Greece, Ireland and Spain, most markets across Western Europe performed well, while results in Eastern Europe continued to be mixed but generally improving. Looking at our revenue by industry, food and beverage continues to be our largest sector, representing 16% of our revenue in both 2010 and 2009. Our fastest-growing sectors for the quarter and for the year was technology, followed by financial services and then consumer products and pharma and healthcare. Although the percentage of revenue from the auto sector decreased 10% in 2010, excluding the effects of the loss of Chrysler, we experienced double-digit organic growth in the auto sector for the year. And reflective of the breadth of the recovery, all of our industry sectors experienced positive organic growth, both in the quarter and the full year. Turning to cash flow. For the year, our performance continued to be very strong. We generated approximately $1 billion of free cash flow after CapEx and excluding changes in working capital, which was also positive another $310 million. Our primary uses of cash during the year were dividends to our common shareholders, which totaled $229.7 million. Dividends paid to our non-controlling interest shareholders was $81 million. Acquisitions, including earnout payments and the purchase of additional interest in controlled subsidiaries, net of the proceeds of the sale of investments was approximately $172 million. And share repurchases net of the proceeds received from stock issuances under our share plans and the related tax benefits totaled approximately $1.13 billion. In total, between common dividends and net share repurchases, we returned approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders in 2010, bringing net use of cash excluding working capital of $587 million. The next chart, showing our current credit picture, including changes in working capital, shows that our net debt at year end was $900 million. That was a year-over-year increase of $237 million, which was largely driven by an increased share of repurchase activity during the year, offset by further improvements in working capital management. Our current liquidity continues to be very strong. We finished the quarter with cash and undrawn committed credit facilities totaling $4.3 billion, and we had additional uncommitted facilities available totaling $610 million. As you know, in December, we extended our credit facility for three years and reduced the capacity from $2.5 billion to $2 billion. Previously used the credit facility for both liquidity purposes and to backstop our convertible notes, which at their peaks were over $2 billion. Since we've reduced the balance of convertible notes to only $660 million, we didn't need the additional credit capacity. And finally, to sum up our financial performance for the year, we've included a schedule of our return on equity and return on invested capital. Overall, we think ROIC and ROE as performance measures collectively show the balance of all of our various metrics that we used to gauge our performance: revenue growth, operating margins, capital deployment, capital structure and tax structure. They also highlight the effectiveness of our long-term investment and operating strategies for shareholders. For the year, return on invested capital was 16.8%, close to our historic 10-year average of 17.1%. And our return on equity for the year increased to 21.3%, reapproaching our 10-year average of $0.225. Overall, we believe our agencies have done an excellent job of navigating through the economic turbulence that we've experienced over the past two years, at the same time maintaining their focus on the quality of their services, adapting to changes in technology, expanding their presence in the emerging markets and controlling their cost. And with that, I'm now going to ask our Operator to open the call for questions.