Operator
Operator
Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)
Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 20, 2015
$76.19
-1.27%
Same-Day
+0.62%
1 Week
+3.54%
1 Month
+1.09%
vs S&P
-1.59%
Operator
Operator
Shub Mukherjee
Management
Good morning. Thank you for taking the time to listen to our Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. On the call with me today is John Wren, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Angelastro, Chief Financial Officer. We hope everyone has had a chance to review our earnings release. We have posted on our website at www.omnicomgroup.com, this morning's press release, along with the presentation which covers the information that we will review. This call is also being simulcast and will be archived on our website. Before we start, I have been asked to remind everyone to read the forward-looking statements and other information that we have included at the end of our Investor Presentation. And to point out, that certain of the statements made today may constitute forward-looking statements and that these statements are our present expectations and that actual events or results may differ materially. I would also like to remind you that during the course of the call, we will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about Omnicom's performance. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the presentation material. We are going to begin this morning's call with an overview of our business from John Wren. Then, Phil Angelastro will review our financial results. Then we will open up the line for your questions.
John Wren
President
Thank you, Shub. Good morning and thanks for joining us this morning. I am pleased to speak to you about our third quarter 2015 business results. As I am sure you have seen, Omnicom had a strong quarter with organic growth up 6.1%, ahead of our expectations. Margins and net income were in line with our expectations and overall our operations continued to show steady progress in the face of challenging macroeconomic conditions and volatile markets. As we had anticipated, we continue to face significant currency headwinds in the quarter. FX reduced our revenues by 7% or $272 million in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, the strong U.S. dollar versus other currencies reduced our revenue by 7% or $773 million. EPS for the quarter was $0.97, up from $0.95 in the prior year or about 2%. On a constant currency basis, EPS would have increased by approximately an additional 9% for the quarter and 8% for the year. Looking forward, we expect currency effects to moderate in the fourth quarter and into next year. Phil will provide more details about the impact of foreign exchange by market and on our future results later in the call. Turning now to organic revenue growth, North America increased in excess of 6%, reflecting strong performances and brand advertising media and our specialty healthcare business. The U.K. was up 9%, which was broad based across our operations. Our U.K. business has consistently performed well, which reflects the high caliber and diverse group agencies we have in that market. Overall growth in Continental Europe was 4.5%. In the Euro markets, Germany was up mid-single digits, Spain also outperformed while France and the Netherlands weighed on our results. Outside the euro countries, Russia and Poland performed well and most other markets were positive. Moving to…
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, John. Good morning. John said, our business has continued to deliver against their financial and strategic objectives and meeting the needs of their clients. For the third quarter, our organic revenue growth of 6.1%, once again exceeded our expectations as the U.S. continued its strong performance and we experienced solid growth in the U.K. and Canada and across most of our Asia-Pacific markets as well as in several of the European markets. Our underlying business has continued a solid performance. Exchange rates continue to create a considerable headwind on our international revenue. Again this quarter, FX was negative in all of our significant foreign markets, reducing our total revenue by 7.2% or $272 million. When accounting for the small net positive impact from our acquisitions net of dispositions, revenue for the quarter was about $3.7 billion, down 1.1% versus Q3 of last year. We will go over our revenue growth in detail in a few minutes. Turning to EBITDA and operating income, EBITDA for the third quarter of 2015 decreased by $6 million to $455 million versus $461 million in Q3 of last year. As you would expect, exchange rates also had a significant negative impact on our total EBITDA for the quarter and more significant than in the first six months of the year. While the vast majority of our expenses are denominated in the same local currencies as our revenues, essentially serving as a natural hedge in a few of our higher-margin markets including Canada, Australia Brazil, FX had a larger negative impact this quarter than earlier in the year and through the first nine months of 2015. FX reduced our overall EBITDA margin by roughly 18 basis points. However, helping to offset the FX headwinds on EBITDA has been our focus on maintaining flexibility in…
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from the line of Peter Stabler, representing Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.
Peter Stabler
Analyst · Peter Stabler, representing Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Good morning. One for John and one for Phil. John, there are some investors who are concerned that technology is enabling marketers to take more of their advertising duties in-house, so effectively reducing the scope of work available for agencies, I am wondering if you could comment on that. Then Phil, could you help us understand Accuen's contribution to organic growth in the quarter. Thanks very much.
John Wren
President
Sure. Good morning, Peter. That concern is true, but advertisers have taken various functions in-house for a very long time. We live with that situation and it has not impacted our ability to grow in other areas or grow with them or collaborate with them on the areas that they decide to take in-house. With respect to programmatic, we continue to see growth throughout and especially and even with clients that have taken certain aspects of this in-house. We sit beside them and we do other things. We complement their services, so it is not - that of all the concerns we have it is not a very, very impactful one.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
On your second question, Peter, the contribution this quarter from Accuen was about $25 million growth year-over-year for the quarter, so a little bit less than the second quarter. Third quarter is typically a smaller quarter than the second and/or the fourth. The rate of growth has slowed a bit versus last year and the third quarter I think the number was about $40 million. We expect given Accuen has been around for just about two years now, we expect that as the numbers get bigger in the base, the rate growth was going slow a little bit. We are happy with the performance. Our clients are happy with the product that they are getting and we expect it to be good business going forward as well.
Peter Stabler
Analyst · Peter Stabler, representing Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Thanks very much.
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from the line of Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Alexia Quadrani
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thank you. I guess my first question is on organic revenue growth, which has been so strong in the last few quarters including this one. I know you have a lot less visibility always in Q4 given sort of the project business, but any other variables that we should consider that might suggest this impressive growth might be a bit more muted in Q4 then I have a follow-up.
John Wren
President
Our internal targets are to reach 6.1 in the fourth quarter there. They are more in line with we had set for the year, so that is number one. Number two as you said, and I think I have said for the last almost consistently for the 20 years on the third-quarter calls. There is so much project business in the fourth quarter. It is the quarter, where we have the least amount of visibility between now and 12.31, because we do not know how clients - what their budgets are and what they are going to do with them just yet.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Yes. That number, we typically have found to be in the neighborhood of the $150 million to $200 million in potential year-end project work closing out budgets on the client side etcetera. We typically do not get none of it and we typically may not get all of it, but sitting here today we do not have a lot of visibility into what that number is going to be for the fourth quarter, so as John and said we are going to stick with our assumptions for the year as they relate specifically to the fourth quarter.
Alexia Quadrani
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Then just your thoughts on profitability here, I know your style has always been to sort of optimize margins and honestly maximize in any one given quarter and that is how it has proven to be great strategy historically. I guess my question though is, given the organic revenue growth has outperformed at least our expectations and then trending a little bit above average. Perhaps you could give us some more color in terms of what are the puts and takes of sort of what is leaving the margins flat and why we are not seeing extension. I know obviously foreign exchange is part of it. I guess, what else is sort of limiting the margin expansion given the top-line growth?
John Wren
President
I think FX actually in the third quarter was a little counterintuitive for us relative to the first half of the year. as I have said earlier the year-to-date impact of FX was about 18 basis points, but in the third quarter, which again is a relatively small quarter, FX impacted those - in excess of about 30 basis points, so we are a little surprised by that, but you that is really just the math of where the FX impacts was. We have got a lot of corporate costs primarily in U.S. and some of our higher-margin markets outside the U.S. were impacted a little bit more heavily by FX this quarter and overall percentage or proportion of the total pie, so we think we have done a pretty good job to get back to the margins we delivered overall for the third quarter, which was where our internal targets were coming out, but FX certainly has been a big challenge for us this year on top-line and I think in the third quarter it had a little bit higher than expected impact on our overall operating costs and our operating margins. I think we are comfortable with the performance. I think, we look at fourth quarter if FX rates stay where they are now, we would expect revenues to be down about 4.5%. FX had started to come down, say, late September, early October of '14. That is when the dollar really started to strengthen significantly, but the Euro and Pound actually did not start to weaken relative to the dollar on a reported basis until early in 2015, so we expect to see some of the weakness in the fourth quarter relative to the euro and the pound, which are biggest international markets. I think from a margin perspective, our expectation is the same. We are going to continue to internally drive towards maintaining margins and overcoming whatever FX has in store for us in the fourth quarter.
Alexia Quadrani
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Craig Huber
Analyst · Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead
Yes. Good morning. Thank you. John, I know it is really early here, but just the various conversations you are having with your clients out there, is there anything that you are sensing out there that the rate of growth on an organic basis as you look out into, say, the first half of next year is going be materially different or lower than the 5.5% you guys have reported year-to-date?
John Wren
President
I do not have any specific information yet. Clients are really focused on finishing out this year and we won't start those dialogs probably until late November, the beginning of December. Every one of the CEOs that I talk to remain cautious and somewhat conservative, because of all the macroeconomic issues there are once you get outside the United States, so it is a little too early to give you more color depth on that question.
Craig Huber
Analyst · Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead
Then, John, also in the third quarter, what were your net new billings, so now you generally can try to get $1 billion. What was it for the third quarter?
John Wren
President
Yes. It was just on $1 billion, probably close to $950 million for the quarter.
Craig Huber
Analyst · Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead
Okay. Lastly can you just give us a little more flavor on the countries outside the U.S. with the cost and the revenues are not perfectly match, just give us a sense what regions or countries that is hurting your margins please - FX?
John Wren
President
Brazil?
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Yes. It is not really - just to clarify, Craig, it is not really an issue of the cost and the revenues not matching on it. We probably have a couple of exceptions here and there. It is not necessarily a region that is an exception as far as the revenue and costs being denominated in the same local currency. It is really just a matter of mix, so some of our high margin markets Canada, Australia, Brazil and actually Russia - or Brazil and Russia given the currency impact is a much smaller than they were last year. When we have high-margin markets that are impacted significantly by FX, we had less revenue and less EBIT. The less EBIT over what is a large U.S. dollars driven denominator ends up having slightly lower margins, because there was less EBIT from those markets where the currency negative was larger than the proportion of the total. Hopefully that clarifies it for you, but it is back to - it is kind of - yes it is not always intuitive, it is not always in a straight line how FX impacts each of our international operations.
Craig Huber
Analyst · Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Salmon
Analyst · Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone. John you took some time out of your prepared remarks to comment around the role of independent verification, in particular noting publishers cannot create their own homework. Of course the advertisers and their agents have some conflicts in this sort of dealings as well, so I was hoping you could expand a little bit on what type of services you feel Omnicom is doing well providing to the advertisers within that's sort of a traditional construct and where you see the role of companies like Nielsen really truly independent measurement companies today and then maybe also a follow-up comment on how you view the comScore and Rentrak merger, especially in light of the fact that one of your competitors remains a minority investor there if not a Board member?
John Wren
President
Sure. Just one clarification, when it comes to verification or any of these a media ownership, we do not have any of those conflicts with our clients. It is very important to make sure that everybody understands what Omnicom owns and does not own. In terms of the verification services that I mentioned, we pay for those. They have been embedded in our performance Accuen type of revenue associated with clients, where we will promise our results. To make sure that a result is accurate, we have gone out since 2013 and hired third-party verification people to come in and tell us, gee, what is the view of ability, where is the audience coming from, you look like you are reaching enough people, but are they are really out of the market or they are coming from India or some place that you do not even sell your product, so we have gone through that exercise to legitimize our efforts in this area and it expands all the time. We believe that the time has come to agree industry standards and select third-party verification firms that clients are comfortable with and the providers are comfortable with and make them part of the normal practices that occur between client and agencies as we performs these duties. There are firm that you mentioned Nielsen Scott, a fabulous business and do all sort of wonderful things. I do not know specifically what it is working on in this area, especially mobile and comScore and Rentrak, is a great firm we have relationships with them and we get certain data and information from them as well, irrespective of the fact that WPP owns 20% of them, so if this is a process - but I think the time has come because of the amount of spending that clients are directing toward digital channels to really agree these areas and publishers, they are the one selling the content. We believe that they need to step up and provide third-party verification.
Dan Salmon
Analyst · Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of John Janedis representing Jefferies. Please go ahead.
John Janedis
Analyst · John Janedis representing Jefferies. Please go ahead
Thank you. Phil, the buyback pace slowed a bit in the third quarter, so I wanted to ask should we assume that there are some assets you are looking and maybe the $100 million-plus range and the billings do not close, you would look to increase the buyback?
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think certainly our capital allocation strategy has not changed. I will start with that. We are going to continue to look for acquisitions that right fit our strategic requirements and we are going to be aggressive in trying to find those assets and help us to grow the business where we think it makes sense, but to the extent that the right opportunities aren't available or we are not successful in reaching a deal that makes sense for us and frankly for the seller for the long-term, we are going to put that money to use in terms of buybacks. That approach has not changed. We are in the process of negotiating some deals. The pipeline is strong at the moment. We are not certain ultimately where we are going to get to in each of these cases, but there are some transactions work, we are certainly evaluating, and we are going to continue to evaluate and frankly that is no different than any quarter. Given we are headed into the fourth quarter here, either we are going to spend some of this, say, excess free cash that we have found some acquisitions and if we do not we will hold through to our pattern of a putting that cash to use in the way of buybacks prior to closing out the year.
John Janedis
Analyst · John Janedis representing Jefferies. Please go ahead
That is helpful. Thanks. Maybe follow-up to Alexia's question, I know there a lot of moving pieces, but with the FX moderating and the cost initiatives kicking in, should margins start to ramp into next year assuming organic growth remains healthy or have you deferred some investment given the FX pressures?
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
I do not think we have deferred any investment certainly no investments that we have felt are necessary to continue to build on the foundation to provide for stable and consistent growth into the future, but we are always looking for ways to be more efficient. We have got some initiatives that have started to give us some traction. We think we are pretty efficient already, but we know we can be more efficient and there are more opportunities to take some cost out of the business. I do not think we are ready yet to commit to what our expected growth rate as in '16 or what our expected margins are in '16, but we think as we continue to grow and as we continue to push these initiatives, we are going to find some ways that to find some leverage in the business, yes.
John Janedis
Analyst · John Janedis representing Jefferies. Please go ahead
Just maybe one quick organic expense question, can you give us organic expense growth for the third quarter maybe ex-currently?
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Organic expense growth, I am not sure. We do not really track expenses on an organic basis. If you give me a minute, I can you give an idea what the constant dollar numbers were or major line items. I think, on a constant dollar basis, salary and service was just over $3 billion and office in general was just over $480 million.
John Janedis
Analyst · John Janedis representing Jefferies. Please go ahead
Thanks so much.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Sure.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Ben Swinburne
Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Thank you. Two for John and one for Philip, John, can you just talk about the European markets which performed well. I think this was your best euro quarter going back all the way till 2010. Last quarter was showing improvement too. I know you called out some countries that are holding you back, but are you more confident in the euro outlook as you go from here given what you have see in the last six months?
John Wren
President
Yes is the short the answer. We just had our Board meeting last week in Berlin, and we had the opportunity to visit with all of our German subsidiaries. They were very confident. The German economy is very, very strong. That is why we called it out. Spain has really turned it around compared to what it was in the past. We did not call out Italy although in the quarter it had year-over-year growth. The reason we did not call it out is because we still have a quarter to go, so we are a little bit cautious. France has been almost flat for the first six months, because it has [ph] been a little negative in the last quarter and then Netherlands has been an issue for us for the last almost two years, so the big markets in Europe, overall showing signs of progress. I can say with the exception of the Netherlands, but at some point that will flatten down as well and will drain from the growth in the strong markets. Yes. I think it is Europe still has a long way to go, but our performance has been pretty steady and we are continuing to make progress.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Yes - good progress actually in certainly smaller markets, so tempered with that, but the non-euro markets our businesses have actually continued to perform well there as well.
John Wren
President
In the small markets, we have also taken actions to refocus and resize our offerings.
Ben Swinburne
Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Then I just had two questions related the broad topic of digital, John, a little over year ago at Adweek you announced a pretty big Facebook partnership. I just was curious if you could give us kind of at the 12-month mark, how that is going? If you integrating Atlas as you expected any surprises positive or negative and then kind of related hopefully related for Phil, if you look at your salary and services margin as a percent of revenue, I think since 2012 that has been going up about 50-bips a year. You talked about currency this year. I am guessing digital is a factor there as well. I am just wondering if there is anything we are missing that might be driving that up as a percent of rev that we do not talk about. As we think about going forward whether that is just something you expect to continue or any visibility on what is happening there beyond currently would be really helpful? Thank you.
John Wren
President
Sure. Well, with respect to Facebook, we did announced last year at this time and our relationship with them is very, very positive. We find them extremely cooperative and we utilize their services. We have had growth in our spending with Facebook. It is not a limit to Facebook. We also have very strong relationships with the other major players, Google, we have experienced a lot of growth and Twitter. Our relationship with Twitter has expanding recently, so we are growing with them in most instances and our relationships are solid across the Board I think.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Back to the second question, so salary and service we expect there are more valuable and flexible than our office in general cost. We would expect them to grow a bit as our revenue grows. I think, in this year, we found through, 930, our headcount numbers were up a bit, primarily probably in the U.S., a little bit U.K., so the number we expect to kind of grow with our revenues. Office in general, which are more fixed in nature. We expect them to, as a percentage of revenue which is how we look at the numbers, we would expect them to decline over time. Given some of the initiatives we have especially in the area of real estate, we would expect to continue to pursue those opportunities to reduce those costs and keep them as low as possible, so I think the trends is what we would expect to see.
Ben Swinburne
Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Okay. Thank you.
Phil Angelastro
Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think, we are on right about to turn that the market is going to open, so I think if we could do one more question.
Operator
Operator
Okay. Our final question today will come from the line of Tim Nollen with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Tim Nollen
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thanks very much for fitting me in. I just had one other issue you mentioned question about viewability and measurement. I wonder if you have any comment on your slated scourge of your ad blocking. There has been a lot of back and forth and I just wonder what your view is on what happened to the ad blocking, what the impact is to you and agencies and also to the various media? Thanks.
John Wren
President
Ad blocking is a large question for advertising, because almost center staged. The ANA last week - we have taken the view although we watch it, that if you - the customer is in control. Never been more evident than it is today and customers will embrace and ads-supported content model when they understand what it is we are trying to communicate and the quality - creative, so I tend to agree with some CMOs which are basically said we focus on great work that consumers will be interested in will pass and we will get pass the ad blocking concerns that are in the marketplace. It is an ongoing battle. People do not have to sit there and suffer things that are not of interested them and then so incumbent upon us to improve the product and the battle though is going on some high-quality publishers are already requiring users to disable their ad blockers in order to gain access to their content. We will see what happens in that battle, so everybody is front and center [ph]. We are certainly addressing ourselves good by focusing on the work and the content that we provide to the consumer.
Tim Nollen
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thanks a lot.
John Wren
President
Okay. Thank you all for joining the call. We appreciate it.
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. We thank you for your participation and using the AT&T Executive TeleConference. You may now disconnect.