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Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Mon, Jan 28, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Old National Bancorp Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC's Regulation FD. The call, along with corresponding presentation slides, will be archived for 12 months on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com. A replay of the call will also be available beginning at 1 p.m. Central today through February 11. To access the replay, dial 1 (855) 859-2056, conference ID code 85748760. Those participating today will be analysts and members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] At this time, the call will be turned over to Lynell Walton, Director of Investor Relations, for opening remarks. Ms. Walton?

Lynell J. Walton

Analyst

Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today on Old National Bancorp's Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call are Bob Jones; Chris Wolking; Daryl Moore and Joan Kissel. I would like to remind you that our comments today may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual future results to materially differ from those discussed. Please refer to the forward-looking statement disclosure contained on Slide 3, as well as our SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors. Additionally, as you review Slide 4, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this conference call. References to such non-GAAP measures are only provided to assist you in understanding Old National's results and performance trends and should not be relied upon as a financial measure of actual results. Reconciliations for such non-GAAP measures are appropriately referenced and included within the presentation. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we'll be happy to open the line and take your questions. But before I turn over the call, I'd like to begin our fourth quarter and full year performance review with Slide 5. As I'm pleased to announce Old National reported fourth quarter earnings this morning of $23 million or $0.23 per share. This net income represents a 17% increase over third quarter 2012 net income of $19.7 million, and is a 4% increase over fourth quarter 2011 earnings. There were several positive highlights of the quarter, the first being the increase of 18% we experienced in total revenue. In part, the increase in revenue is a result of the continuation of loan growth in our core Commercial portfolio, which we've experienced now for the past 8 -- 3 quarters, as this portfolio increased $42.9 million during the quarter.…

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Thanks, Lynell. Lynell shared with you the company's earnings highlights for the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2012. I'd like to add that we are all pleased with our 2012 performance. We believe it shows steady progress in our basic banking strategy. In 2012, we reduced core operating expenses, successfully executed the acquisition of Indiana Community Bancorp and announced our acquisition of branches in Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan, a new market for us. Additionally, credit costs declined and we grew core loans and core deposits. We still have work to do, but it is gratifying for all of the associates who have worked so hard at the company to have a successful year behind us. Lynell's slide listed a number of items that affected fourth quarter earnings, including $4.5 million in securities gains and $1.9 million in charges associated with debt extinguishment. I'd like to add a little color to our investment portfolio transactions. The securities we sold included approximately $26 million of long maturity municipal bonds. We feel it is prudent to manage the duration of the investment portfolio towards the low end of our historical portfolio duration. We finished the year with a duration of approximately 3.71. Since 2008, our investment portfolio has had a duration of between 5.66 and 3.33. A full review of the investment portfolio was included in the appendix. We used a portion of these security gains to terminate $50 million of Federal Home Loan advances, which would have had an average cost of approximately 7% in 2013. I will begin with Slide 9. You can see that our pretax pre-provision income without securities gains and merger and integration expenses increased to $34 million in the fourth quarter, from $28.2 million in the third quarter. Fourth quarter includes a full…

Daryl D. Moore

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Thank you, Chris. I'd like to begin my remarks this morning on Slide 20 where we show a trailing 8-quarter summary of net charge-offs for our core portfolio, as well as for our 3 most recently purchased portfolios. As you can see, the ONB core portfolio continues to perform very well with roughly $1 million in net losses representing 10 basis points of net charge-offs in the quarter. With respect to the Monroe portfolio, we posted net losses of approximately $200,000, which represents 30 basis points of loss, down from the 75 basis points on losses last quarter. Integra portfolio continues to be a little lumpy with losses in the fourth quarter of $400,000 or 35 basis points of the total portfolio. $600,000 in losses were recognized in the Indiana Community Bank portfolio in the first full quarter holdings representing 50 basis points of loss. On a consolidated basis, you can see that net charge-offs in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis were $2.2 million or 17 basis points of average loans. Within that $2.2 million total, we took write-downs of approximately $750,000 associated with our regulators' guidance on performing borrowers who had obviously filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy but who had not reaffirmed our debt within that bankruptcy. Full 2012 net charge-offs were $8.3 million, also representing 17 basis points of average loans, compared to net charge-offs of $21.7 million or 49 basis points of average loans to the full year 2011. The 17 basis point level was the lowest level of charge-offs posted by the bank since 1999. Moving to Slide 21. We can see that excluding covered Monroe and Indiana Community loans, the allowance coverage of non-performing assets fell 4 basis points in the quarter to 50%. You can see that ONB non-covered consolidated percentages now reflect…

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Great. Thank you, Daryl. Beginning on Slide 29, I wanted to briefly shift our focus from 2012 to 2013 by providing you with our perspective on the upcoming year, both on a macro level and specifically as it pertains to Old National. Our clients are expressing more optimism about the economy. This was especially true following the gymnastics around the fiscal cliff. Many are reporting increased business demand, and this is happening across multiple sectors, as well as multiple geographies. It is interesting to note that a good portion of those clients have even expressed frustrations with their ability to hire trained workers. While I would not say we are in a robust expansion mode, the steady economic expansion may have picked up slightly, and our clients are beginning to see the benefits. While our clients are expressing more optimism with the economy, they continue to be frustrated with the lack of clarity and leadership coming out of Washington. Whether it was the fiscal cliff resolution or the proposed debt ceiling discussions, it is as Yogi Berra famously said, déjà vu all over again. We continue to kick the can down the road and have truly not made the decisions with the clarity or decisiveness that is necessary to provide the stability our clients are looking for in our economy. Our fear as we look forward is that the next round of discussions on the debt ceiling and the continuing resolutions necessary to meet the spending needs of the federal government will cause more uncertainty and potentially slow the recovery. We can only hope that our leaders will realize the country's need for economic stability outweighs politics, and that this will be their central focus. Moving to the overall economy. We are projecting a GDP in our markets in the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Sandler O’Neill. R. Scott Siefers - Sandler O'Neill + Partners, L.P., Research Division: Bob, I think kind of between you and Chris and Daryl, it sounded like the overall loan growth outlook is pretty constructive. Just I guess in addition to the color that you already gave, maybe if you wouldn't mind kind of venturing I guess on how robust the strength of growth would be in 2013? I guess one of the other things that I'm kind of interested in is you still do have at least some runoffs from the covered loans that I would anticipate would continue. So I guess in the aggregate, what kind of core loan growth would you be looking for this year?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Boy, Scott, hard to put a number on it just based on the IBT and based on the covered loan portfolio. But I will say that the activity level over the last 2 to 3 quarters continues to increase. While you saw a little decline in the pipeline over the last couple of quarters, we've had some strong closings. So I think easiest way to answer is the activity levels are slightly better than what we've had, and again that all depends on our experience at IBT to give you some number. But I can also tell you that from our directors down to everyone in the company, we're all focused on it. We had actually a director that referred over $40 million in loans to us over the last couple of weeks. So we're encouraged. R. Scott Siefers - Sandler O'Neill + Partners, L.P., Research Division: Okay. That's perfect. Definitely appreciate that. And then, Chris, just want to make sure that I understood your comments correctly. Appreciate the color you've given on the, I guess, the actual purchase accounting accretion you've had and then the expectations as we look into 2013 because I think you guys had right around $57.5 million as you detailed in the release in accretion income in 2012. So it sounds like pretty similar expectation ahead as we look into 2013, just with kind of an anticipated change in the complexion of that.

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Exactly, Scott. I think we still believe that what we've got from the ICB transaction kind of looking forward will offset what we'll give up in 2013. I think it's important that we continue to make you all aware of those numbers, and the fact that it is kind of transitory, and we'd expect that Monroe and Integra accretion to continue to come down. R. Scott Siefers - Sandler O'Neill + Partners, L.P., Research Division: Okay, perfect. And then I guess finally, just on the core margin, you gave some color on the first quarter expectation. When or I guess will there be kind of a stabilization in the core margin in your pure estimation. Just at some point seemingly the re-pricing risk in the securities portfolio will kind of play itself out. Do you think that's only going to happen this year or is maybe a few basis points a quarter out as we look beyond the first quarter in terms of compression for the core margins. Is that a fair presumption?

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

I think we've talked about the benefit we still expect to see from our liability re-pricing, particularly on our CDs. I think I tried to make clear that in the fourth quarter we had a pretty significant increase in earning assets, which may have driven the core margin. And it really depends on how the loan growth continues and how much of those cash flows from the investment portfolio we can steer to better quality earning assets. I'm not willing to add duration to the book, the investment portfolio. I just don't feel like it's appropriate to take more risk there even though we can squeeze a few basis points of yield out of the portfolio. So we'll just have to play it by ear. But like I said, I think a large part of that fourth quarter compression was due to higher-than-anticipated growth in earning assets. And some of that did come from the portfolio albeit very short term in duration.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus. Stephen G. Geyen - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Maybe just a follow on question. The change in the movement discussed and post the loans in the pipeline ticks up over the last few quarters, I'm just curious if you could talk just a bit about the success you'd had in moving the loans through the pipeline and how that's changed over the last couple of quarters.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

In years past, Stephen, our regional CEOs were great folks at kind of postponing closings to make themselves look better the following year. And so Barbara and I did a pretty significant push to say cut the whatever, and let's get them closed. So I think that's part of it. And again I go back to the -- we've got everybody in the company really focused on loan growth. And maybe we're not at 8 cylinders, but I'd say we're at 7 pushing towards 8. A conversation doesn't go by when I'm not with our regional CEOs, our Commercial Banking managers, when you don't talk about how's loan growth? What can we do? Daryl and I are working on credits, just the 2 of us. No, he doesn't like getting that broad end so far, but I think it's just more a -- the continual effort to make sure we get stuff on the balance sheet before the year end. Stephen G. Geyen - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And maybe just some thoughts on the runoff of the core portfolio. Just kind of curious how you look -- how things kind of work their way out through 2012, and what the impact might be in 2013 and just the type of credits that you've seen leaving the bank. Has it been because of pricing? It's been mostly because of pay downs? What's been driving the runoff?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Yes, a couple of things. As you look at the third quarter '12 to fourth quarter '12, the jump there, the 2 primary drivers are really Indiana Community. Any time you acquire a new bank and you change credit standards, you're going to have some good core loans that unfortunately somebody's going to come in and make some structural changes that we lose that opportunity. So as Chris said, we went from an average of 4.47 to 4.04 in our ICB. So you can see we've had some pay downs there. I will say we've got a completely new commercial banking team in there. They've built their pipeline. We're encouraged by what we see, but it's natural. Actually if you go back and you look over the Monroe loan trends, they're not dissimilar. And again, I think we're in very good shape in Bloomington. The other thing you get, Stephen, at the end of the year, is you got some seasonal pay downs either people flushed with cash, they want to pay down or some other things that happened. But if we lose a credit these days, it's generally going to be to structure more so than pricing. We're competitive on the pricing standpoint because of our good core funding. But as Chris or as Daryl alluded to in his comments, when people start to reach for growth, structure's the first thing that's going to go. And we are seeing some markets where people have short memories. But fortunately Daryl has got a very long memory, and I sleep pretty well with that. Stephen G. Geyen - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And the -- you made a comment about the $6.5 million to $7.5 million in branch optimization saves in 2013. I just want to make sure, is that off the base of 4Q level?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

It would be off of the 4Q level, but that's an annualized number. So you assume that we closed -- consolidated the ones in the fourth quarter the sales will happen late January, early February. So I think for models, I'd give us 10/12 of that as you're building your models. Stephen G. Geyen - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay, all right. That's helpful. And last question on Slide 10, just curious what prompted the change in the not-accretable difference -- or excuse me, actually one different question. You had mentioned in one of the slides about the adjustment in the pension, and I was just curious what exactly prompted that? Was it change in the discount rate or was there some other factor?

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Oh, thank you, Stephen. I just had to ask Joan Kissel to help me with that. We had lump-sum distributions and that -- all those things can come up kind of suddenly from retirements.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company. Emlen B. Harmon - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: I was hoping we could hit on the forward expense run rate a little bit. Just a lot going on this quarter, and as we think about kind of the forward expense run rate, is it reasonable? Because there are a couple of items in there, right? Well, and it sounds like the pension really is kind of truly a onetime or just based on your last comment, where we wouldn't necessarily expect that in the first quarter. But just kind of like, what's the normal level of charitable contributions, anything else in that pension line that may run through and how should we really be thinking about kind of the expense run rate starting in the first quarter?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

Yes, the $85.7 million is a good starting point. What we don't have really fully into the $85.7 million, Emlen and others, is we really need another full quarter of IBT to give you their exact. We're still investing in those markets. I've got to add some people in wealth management. We've added some other staffing, but the $85.7 million is probably the best place to start with a little bit of additional expense for IBT. But the contributions really is a payment to our foundation. That's a onetime expense that happens. Most of the other ones, as Lynell said, are ones we wouldn't anticipate. But I'd start your miles at the $85.7 million and we'll add a little bit it in there for IBT as we go forward.

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

Emlen, I might add too that we should begin to see those benefits from the branch optimization as well. That we won't see all of that obviously probably until the second quarter.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

So I would focus on the blue line there. And again, the only thing that we anticipate at this time being unusual in the first quarter will be the last of our consulting fees or we hope the last of our consulting fees for BSA/AML. Emlen B. Harmon - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: As the BSA/AML, that's all going to be a onetime expense in the first quarter. There wasn't anything I guess enough in the fourth quarter in terms of accruals for that?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

No, we can't accrue it because we haven't gotten -- I'm not an expert on accounting but this really revolves -- it really involves the look backs that we have to do with the last portion of our consent order, and we can't pay that bill until we actually have the completion of the look back. So it revolves around the folks that are helping us with that. So it is truly a onetime expense, and we had no accrual in the fourth quarter for it. Emlen B. Harmon - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Got you. And then I was surprised that we didn't see maybe more of an increase in the service charges this quarter with Indiana Community coming over. Could you talk a little bit about how your fee structure kind of lines up with their previous fee structure and whether there's any opportunity to kind of push some of that into the new franchise.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

Yes, we actually changed the fee structure at IBT early on, Emlen. So what you're seeing is our fee structure on their clients. And we were clearly a little more costly than they were for clients. And we saw the natural attrition we normally see. I think actually, we're a little better than we thought. We're as frustrated as anybody with service charges. We're just not seeing the presentments we've historically seen. We're in the midst of reviewing our complete service charge structure as we speak because obviously, flat quarter-over-quarter's not good enough, and we need to find ways to drive more noninterest income. So I think the number as you see it is probably a good run rate until we make some adjustments. Emlen B. Harmon - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Got you. Okay. And then last question for me, in terms of -- appreciate the stack rank of kind of how you're thinking about your different economies in terms of -- or different geographies in terms of economic performance. Kind of where the markets that you're in, in Michigan where would they kind of fall into that stack rank or just in terms of how you're thinking about just kind of the growth opportunities in some of those markets?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Emlen Harmon with Jefferies & Company

Great question. I fell in love with Kalamazoo. I got to tell you, if you've not been to Kalamazoo and you know Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo is a mini Grand Rapids. It's got a strong medical base, just a vibrant corporate leadership, not a lot of local banks. The ones they do have are very strong in Kalamazoo, but their unemployment was less than 7%. I mean, going by memory, I think it was 6.5% or 6.7% on unemployment. Battle Creek is much the same. But even Paw Paw, I'll be honest with you. We kind of all laughed about Paw Paw, Michigan. I thought I was going to pull up to a -- well, I wasn't sure what I was going to get. But the visit to Paw Paw was -- it's not a huge economy. But you get outside of Detroit, and I think what we're seeing in Michigan is very encouraging. So -- but clearly the gem is Kalamazoo. That's where we have our largest presence of branches, and we've just got some wonderful associates in the Kalamazoo market as well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Christopher McGratty - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Chris, on the balance sheet side, obviously with the liquidity coming with BofA, can you help us on the size of the securities book. I think it's around 2 7 [ph] today maybe either on a dollar amount or percent of earning assets as the year progresses.

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Chris McGratty with Keefe, Bruyette and Woods

Right, and I don't have our -- my Bank of America slides in front of me. But that model all -- is really driven by largely increases in investment securities to offset the deposits. So we know that number will go up. And frankly, some of what we did in the fourth quarter was a little bit in anticipation of that. Logically, you'd expect that with the branch sales, we would have maybe managed down the book in the fourth quarter. But I'm purposefully keeping that up a little bit, I think. As we go -- get closer to the acquisition date, I want to take advantage of the movements in rates when we have it. But I would tell you that we're not expecting -- I would expect that the duration after we're done with those investments on the average -- the average duration of the portfolio will go down because we'll continue to invest in pretty short-term securities in that book, Chris. So we'll go up kind of probably in lockstep with what we see in terms of ultimately the total deposit transaction. But we would hope that, that wouldn't be sustained and that we could move that pretty quickly into loan assets.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Chris McGratty with Keefe, Bruyette and Woods

Chris, just to follow on as a little bit of color, the model, when we talked to you a couple of weeks about BofA, was really based, as Chris said, taking that full deposits and putting them in investments. But in anticipation of closing, we're already looking to put an indirect lenders up in the Southwest Michigan market to work with the auto dealers. We're already out to look for some wealth management, trust folks and commercial bankers. So we're gearing up in anticipation of that $700-plus million in deposits. And I've got to tell you again the quality of the folks of BofA, and I think their reputation in the market, we're very encouraged that we can start lending here fairly quickly. Christopher McGratty - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Great, and then the capital targets, I think 8.25 [ph], was kind of the pro forma. One, is that still the case, and then two, Bob, can you talk about deal appetite going forward? Michigan's a new market, but it sounds like an important market. Is there a size that you guys are targeting for your next deal and then whether you think it would be Michigan in '13.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Chris McGratty with Keefe, Bruyette and Woods

Well, the 8.25 [ph] I think still stands as a post transaction. Obviously, our earnings over the first couple of quarters could change that or some other changes. Obviously, I would say as an exact science, M&A is not. Our focus would really like to get, as we've said on the call, we're kind of half pregnant with our $10 billion mark. We need to get above that in a fairly, not large way, but we've got to get a couple of billion above that to be able to take care of Dodd-Frank and the impact. But -- so our ideal deal is $1 billion plus. But if I've got a great opportunity to $600 million, $700 million in any of the markets we like, we still love Northern Indiana, we love Southwest Michigan, Louisville continues to a market we're intrigued with, as well as other parts of Kentucky. So if I could tell Jim exactly where I wanted to be then I wouldn't need Jim. But I think the reality is we're going to have to deal with a -- our nature, Chris, is we really want a willing seller and somebody that's made that leap of faith. And once we get to that phase, it really helps to make the transition much better. Christopher McGratty - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Great. One last one for Chris. On the liability of the restructuring, is there anything else entering '13 that you can do on your liability side to help the margin?

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Chris McGratty with Keefe, Bruyette and Woods

We continue to look at opportunities to restructure. So we don't have much in the way of wholesale funding left. We've still got some old trust preferred issues out there. So we're looking at every opportunity, Chris. But I think probably our biggest benefit will still come from the core deposits re-pricing. In the slides, you'll see that whole spill out of the CD book I think it's on Slide 46, 46. So that's probably our best benefit. But sometimes these opportunities come up. And our treasury group is pretty good about looking at ways to reduce funding costs. So I'm encouraged. I was encouraged by the transaction we did in the fourth quarter. That's one that they worked really hard to identify. So I'll keep you posted as those things come up.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

Jon G. Arfstrom - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Daryl, are you there? Just a couple of questions, probably start with you, Daryl. But you've touched a bit on pricing on new loans, and you mentioned the word structure in your prepared comments. So just curious what you're seeing in terms of is it rational? Are you starting to see irrationality float into it in terms of pricing and structure?

Daryl D. Moore

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Honestly, it's really interesting because, as Bob and Chris both mentioned, we've really got a lot of emphasis on, not only new loan production, but keeping what we have on the book, the loans that we want to. And we went through a couple of weeks ago and just took a sampling of the loans that had paid off in the bank. And what we're seeing really are 2 phenomena. One is, the first one is on the very largest of loans where we compete against the large banks, the Chases, the Fifth Thirds, where we seem to potentially lose some of those larger deals is in the structure around personal guarantees. Those larger banks don't feel that that's probably as important as may be a mid-sized bank, our size bank. And up to this point in time, we just decided not to compromise on many of those loans. So we lose some of those loans, some of those types of loans on guarantees to larger banks. We do lose some loans to smaller banks and not necessarily on the guarantees, but more particularly on the covenants. Because we have a particular set of covenants that we like to use on loans of certain sizes and many of the smaller banks are now beginning to back off those covenants. And they don't feel it's important as we do. So it's not back to where we were in 2006, 2007. But up to this point in time, we've just simply said, you know what that strategy of holding to our credit quality, to our principles, to our structure really served us well over that last cycle. And we're going to stay with that here, but we are beginning to see some of those things begin to creep back into the market.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Jon, I might -- for the benefit of others, we've got Jim Sandgren with us who's our regional CEO, runs our largest markets in Southern Indiana. Let me have him add a little color just as the guy that's facing off with it every day.

James A. Sandgren

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Yes, I think what Daryl said is absolutely right. We're really not compromising on structure. We are having a daily call every morning with Daryl and his top credit folks, as well as the regional CEOs and our chief banking officer and we're talking about these deals. And so if there are issues with structure, we're escalating those to the proper level of management, and we're working through those deals. And sometimes we get to a point where we're not comfortable with that additional risk, but we're also finding ways and maybe different options to do some of those deals. So the fact that we've got a lot of folks on the call every morning talking about these deals and moving them through the pipeline, I think has helped. Pricing, what we talked about earlier on the call, I think is something that I think we compete very well with today. And so we're probably more willing to give a little bit, a few basis points here or there. And with our market share that we have in so many of our markets, we're able to get a little bit higher pricing because of the relationships that we have. But what we really haven't done too much of at all is compromise on structure, and I would confirm what Daryl says there. But still getting a lot of at-bats and talking a lot about these deals and as you've seen prior quarters, we're getting them through the pipeline.

Jon G. Arfstrom - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Okay, good. And then, Bob, maybe just one question for you, a little bit different question. But is there, in your view, a difference in the economic or business climate between say Northwest Indiana or Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan?

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets

Jon, it's a great question. I would tell you they're almost identical. If anything, I would say Southwest Michigan's maybe a little more vibrant only because of, again, remember we run South Bend to Fort Wayne. Elkhart is coming back, they're doing well. The mobile home and RVs are doing much better, but still somewhat challenged. But what we've found in Southwest Michigan was a little more service based than people realized and probably a little more vibrancy than people realized. It's -- we were very encouraged just -- Jim and I spent time, not only with the BofA folks, but we talked to economic development professionals, and there's a lot of good things going on up there. So we're encouraged. It looks a lot more like South Bend than it does anywhere else.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mac Hodgson with SunTrust Robinson.

Mac Hodgson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Mac Hodgson with SunTrust Robinson

Most of the questions have been asked and answered. Just, Chris, just one kind of summary question on the -- on net interest income or accretion. I think before in the third quarter, you guys had said a decline of maybe $20 million to $25 million related to Monroe and Integra. And then I think on this call, you think that'll be offset by Indiana Community. So it seems like maybe you're expecting a run rate, quarterly run rate on Indiana Community in the $7 million to $8 million range. Is that the right way to think of it or is maybe your expectation on the decline in Monroe and Integra changed a little bit?

Christopher A. Wolking

Analyst · Mac Hodgson with SunTrust Robinson

I'd truly feel better about talking about that after we get through another quarter, Mac. Like I said I think in my comments, it was a little bit higher than we had anticipated. And as Bob pointed out, we saw some pay downs of some non-impaired assets in the quarter that were a little bit higher than we, frankly, thought they'd be. So I'd like to see a second quarter before I -- a second full quarter, so that would be the first quarter this year, before I talk more about that. I think our forecast still indicated that -- indicate that one will be offset by the other going forward.

Operator

Operator

At this time, you have no further questions.

Robert G. Jones

Analyst · Stephen Geyen with Stifel, Nicolaus

Super. Well again, everybody, thank you so much. And as always, any follow-up questions, give Lynell a call, and I guarantee we'll get right back to you. Appreciate your interest, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes Old National's call. Once again, a replay, along with the presentation slides, will be available for 12 months on the Investor Relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com. A replay of the call will also be available by dialing 1 (855) 859-2056, conference ID code 85748760. This replay will be available through February 11. If anyone has additional questions, please contact Lynell Walton at (812) 464-1366. Thank you for your participation in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.