Peter Kelly
Analyst · Craig Kennison of Baird
Thank you, Craig. Good question. So I guess, in terms of some of the cyclical pressures I mentioned how they originate in the pandemic, if I look at, say, the off-lease segment, which there’s a -- still, at least on the book, a large supply of maturing off-lease vehicles this year. But what has transpired with I’d say the lack of new car supply from the chip shortage and high retail demand driven in part by economic stimulus, there’s been a sort of a mismatch between consumer demand and new car supply, which has led to a very, very significant appreciation in used car values. And what that has led to is a lot of vehicles in equity, which means less is -- less likely to return them, or when they are returned, very, very high conversions on the upstream platform. So for example, OPENLANE, and again, we’ve got a lot of share here had its all-time record high quarterly conversion of off-lease vehicles within Q1. And if anything, it has strengthened since then. So conversion rates upstream very, very high. Those count as transactions for us. But they’re not as lucrative, let’s say, as downstream transactions in that segment. Craig, I think the first thing that needs to happen is we need to see some return to more normal on the new car production side. And you guys have probably as much data around that as I have, but it’s something we continue to watch closely and talk to our customers about. So return to more normal new car production. And probably a return to some of the stimulus having made its way through the economy and a return to more normal economic environment as well, would probably be a positive, in my view, for our business. So the time line on that, I’m not making firm predictions, but I do think these are temporary phenomena. There still are a lot of off-lease vehicles on our captive finance company’s books, which now extend out another 3 years into the future. We have visibility into that. So those vehicles are there. We expect to see repossessions return to normal over time. They’re still below normal, and we’ve got high market share in the repossession category. And rental cars, I think, will take a little longer. It will take time for us -- I think people are starting to travel. I’ve heard rental companies are back lease leading, buying into fleets again, but it will take a period of time for those vehicles to enter a remarketing phase. So anyway, that’s -- for all those reasons, as I said, we’re continuing to be prudent about our expectations in managing our costs and all the things I talked about in my remarks.