Dexter Goei
Analyst · Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs
Listen, I think on the ARPU side, very consistent. We saw ARPU grow 1.3% in '18 and 1.3% in '19, right? And so the mix of the ARPU is pretty much the same trend where video ARPU was flat to slightly down, down by 0.8%, and broadband ARPU up 9.7%, right? So I think we're forecasting in our revenue guidance to be pretty consistent. I think, as Phil mentioned in his first question, we're mindful as to what revenue impact video could have, even though from a cash flow standpoint, it's got probably a positive effect on things. So I think that's why we're being cautious on our revenue guidance, just as we kind of want to see and feel through the first couple of quarters here to see where we think video trends are there. But on a profitability standpoint, we feel very good about that. In terms of buybacks, yes, listen, we -- the numbers are pretty straightforward. I think as you go through your model and you lever our EBITDA growth and you look at our free cash flow, the buyback number is there to maybe even slightly higher. Then the question really is on M&A. Yes, we announced this deal. I mean if we had hundreds of these deals, we'd love to have them because they're very, very profitable and accretive to us. It's contiguous to our business, a great area in Sparta, New Jersey and its surrounding areas. There are no over builders in that area. And it's also an underdeveloped broadband network, so we can continue to upgrade those networks and drive increased speeds. So we think the synergy opportunity on the cost side and the revenue side is significant. Even if you take that $150 million and you take it out, but you have to add some type of pro forma EBITDA coming in once we get that online 3 months from now, the impact is not going to be a significant reduction in our buyback capacity. And obviously, we think that on an LTQA basis, if we can drive the synergies quickly, we may have a limit -- very limited impact on our buyback capacity in terms of our guidance of $1.7 billion. We don't have a pipeline of a lot of these. They come -- they are -- if they're available, we pounce and we try and go very quickly. But I think we're very much like our fellow brethren in cable, which is there are not a lot of sellers out there. And when there are, they're interesting. But in terms of size, we don't see anything sizable right now that's available.