Earnings Labs

Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN)

Q2 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 12, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Origin Materials’ Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Gupta, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ashish Gupta

Analyst

Thank you and welcome everyone to Origin Materials second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Joining the call today from Origin Materials are co-CEO Rich Riley; co-CEO and co-Founder John Bissell; and CFO, Nate Whaley. Out of this call Origin issued its second quarter press release and presentation which we will refer to today. This can be found on the investor relations section of our website at originmaterials.com. Please note that on this call, we'll be making forward looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect our views only as of today, should not be relied upon as representative about views of as of any subsequent date, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. For further discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could affect their financial results please refer to our filings with the SEC including our quarterly report form 10-Q. In addition, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful as supplemental measures of Origin Materials performance. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or an isolation from GAAP results. You'll find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call and in our press release issue this afternoon, and in our filings with the SEC each of which is posted on our website. The webcast of this call will also be available on the Investor Relations section of our company website. With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

Rich Riley

Analyst

Thank you, Ashish, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. For today's presentation, we will be referring to the slides that were posted to the Investor Relations section of our website earlier this afternoon. We will begin on slide 3. The second quarter of 2021 was momentous for Origin. First, as previously announced we successfully completed the business combination in June and as at the end of the second quarter have $471 million in cash and equivalents on hand. Second, we made significant progress on our first commercial scale plants Origin 1 and Origin 2 and are reaffirming our expectations as to capital budget, production timeline, and our anticipated ability to fully fund both projects from existing cash on hand and previously identified traditional financing sources. And third, our customer demand has more than tripled over the past six months with uptake and capacity reservations of $3.5 billion as of today. As this is our first earnings call, I'll start with an overview of Origin Materials and then provide a commercial update. I'll then turn it over to John who will discuss Origin's intellectual property, core technology, updates on Origin 1 and Origin two and recent executive hires .Nate will wrap up with a financial overview. Origin was founded in 2008 with a mission to help solve climate change by enabling the world's transition to sustainable materials. Our patented drop in core technology, economics and carbon impact have gained the support of a growing list of major global brands and investors including Pepsi, Nestle, Danone, Ford and Mitsubishi gas chemical. The CPG companies mentioned that publicly disclose their intent to migrate 100% of their current petroleum based PET consumption to decarbonized and recycled materials. After extensively testing our technology, these market leaders have made significant financial contributions to Origin…

John Bissell

Analyst

Thanks. I'm going to begin on slide 5. As Rich mentioned, Origin's technology platform uses proven traditional chemistry to convert carbon negative feedstocks like wood residues, postconsumer cardboard, mixed paper waste and construction waste into two principal intermediate chemicals CMF and HTC. These chemical intermediates will be used to make materials like PET that currently use petroleum an energy source in their manufacturer. Moving to slide 6, what separates Origin from these biomaterials companies is our proprietary CMF and HTC production properties which are based on sound, scalable, carbon efficient technology. The process to convert biomass is very carbon efficient. The vast majority of the carbon end up as one of our products. This is in stark contrast to thermal chemical properties such as gasification process and fermentation processes, which nearly invariably lose a substantial proportion of the carbon and feedstock to emissions. This carbon efficiency contributes both to the extraordinarily competitive economics of our process and to the very low carbon intensity of the process. While biologically mediated properties are often hindered by any variation and feedback, our homogeneous chemo catalytic process is robust to a huge range of variation. Similarly, components of the feedstocks that are non-volatiles such as salt can be showstoppers for thermal chemical properties, but they're largely immaterial to the performance of our process. The flexible nature of our chemistry enables many different feedstocks to be used. Sawmill and pulp mill residues, construction waste, agricultural waste, post-consumer paper packaging, pulp wood and mixed paper waste. That feeds back flexibility directly contributes to the low cost and carbon impact of our products. Finally, turning to slide 7, our process is constructed entirely of conventional physical and mechanical properties that have been used in countless chemical properties for centuries. Auto chemistry is new. The process physics are…

Nate Whaley

Analyst

Thank you John. I'll begin with some commentary on our second quarter results, provide a financing update for Origin 2, and then finish with our 2021 outlook. Speaking to slide 16, second quarter operating expenses were $6.7 million compared to $1.7 million during the same period in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $3 million for the second quarter compared to a loss of $1.6 million in the prior period, and finally, net income was $62.5 million for the second quarter compared to a net loss of $1.7 million in the same period in the prior year. As of June 30, 2021 Origin had 136.7 million shares outstanding, excluding 4.5 million shares held by certain stockholders that are subject to forfeiture based on share price performance targets applicable to earn out shares. Turning to our balance sheet as a result of successful business combination with RDS Origin ended the second quarter with $471 million in cash and cash equivalents. Based on preliminary feedback from leading financial institutions that specialize in financing similar sized capital projects, which indicated that our financing assumptions are reasonable and executable, we are able to reaffirm our expectation of fully funding the construction of both plants using our existing balance sheet, cash, and cash equivalents and previously indicated traditional financing sources. Upon completion of Origin 1 and Origin 2, we expect beginning generating positive EBITDA and anticipate our business would generate sufficient cash to allow us to build Origin 3 and beyond. Hence, we do not anticipate needing to raise additional equity capital fund our current business or capital project needs. Further, we would note that we anticipate having approximately $100 million of excess cash beyond the capital budget of Origin 1 and Origin 2. Finally, as John mentioned earlier, we received many questions on inflationary pressures. We are continually updating our cost estimates in real time based on current inputs we've received from vendors and suppliers I'm pleased to report projected construction costs are still within the overall capital budget. Wrapping up with our full year 2021 outlook, we're expecting adjusted EBITDA loss of up to $25 million and capital expenditures of up to $111 million consistent with our previous outlook. With that, I will turn it back to Rich for closing remarks.

Rich Riley

Analyst

Thank you, Nate. I would like to wrap up with three simple reasons that we are so excited about where Origin is today and what its future holds. First, we are the industry disrupter with a clear line of sight to commercial scale and the category leader in carbon negative materials. Second, demand is very strong, and we think Origin will be supply constrained for the foreseeable future. Third, our financing is on track or ahead of schedule to bring Origin 1 and Origin 2 online and begin production. Thank you for your time today. Now we'll open up the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, guys, it's Lisa on for Frank. The first question on slide 4, you lay out the growth in off take agreements and capacity reservations, which has now reached $3.5 billion. How are you guys expecting this level to track over the next 12 months? And which end markets are expected to provide the most incremental opportunities?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Hi, this is Rich. Great question. We're experiencing really strong demand from across the board. If you think about just six months ago, we had customers that were only from the CPG, vertical. And since then, we've had apparel companies, automotive companies, building materials companies, and we're experiencing a wide range of demand from those verticals as well as additional companies really around the world. So it's not any one specific category that's driving this growth. It's really across the board and in addition, we continue to partner with other chemical companies who want to build on top of our materials.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. And as a follow up, could you guys share your thoughts on future bio premiums and carbon credits in terms of your pricing?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Sure. So our pricing strategy, let's take PET, for example we typically start with third party projections for the forward pricing of PET and then add a reasonable premium to that to account for the carbon negativity of our materials, and the sustainability. And to some extent, the fact that we can offer a fixed rate pricing to our customers, which takes the volatility out of their cost structures. And overall, we're trying to be strategic about it. And we want our customers to feel competent that we see them as long term partners. We want to be a very meaningful part of their supply chain going forward. And part of that means offering very fair pricing and not trying to take advantage of them anyway when it comes to pricing, but we are commanding reasonable premiums.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Byrne of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Stephen Byrne

Analyst

Yes, I'd like to keep that discussion going on these additional contracts that you've been talking about here Rich? How would you describe the structure of these additional contracts? And how firm is pricing in them?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Sure. Hi, Steve. So these contracts are, first of all, they're large. So they're typically over $100 million. They're 5 to 10 years in length and they're typically with big companies and they would normally start with what we call a capacity reservation, which specifies the product, the price, the quantity and the duration of the contract. And then we'll move that into an offtake agreement, certainly in time for project financing of the plants. And so that's the very standard structure that we use with most of our customers.

Stephen Byrne

Analyst

And then Origin 1, you you're going to start up in early 2023. Are you at a point where you're starting to negotiate with [Strollers] and if so, how firm of a pricing can you get from them for the upgrade of the CMF all the way to a paraxylene or even PET?

Rich Riley

Analyst

It's a great question. We are, yes go ahead John. I am sorry. Go ahead.

John Bissell

Analyst

It's a great question. So the hayseeds, by the way, that second, again, the key here is, there are variety of different steps in the tow manufacturing chain coming off Origin 1. So in the broad scope, there are some areas where we have quite a bit of certainty and we really do understand quite well, what sort of the cost, let's say collars are on what that's going to look like and there are other areas where there's a little bit less certainty. But generally speaking, if you're looking at the overall quantity of demand, or revenue that we're expecting to generate from Origin 1, I think for the majority of that, we have a pretty good understanding of the collars on cost for that section for the tow manufacturing event. And in many ways, that's because a substantial amount of the downstream processing is chemistry that's pretty well understood and which mirrors or let's say, yes mirror is a good word, mirrors existing chemistry. So we sort of understand what the throughputs going to be, we understand what the reaction profile is going to be, we understand how the equipment that is going to be operating and perform and in many cases, these are, this won't be the first time that [Strollers] have operated in this general style of chemistry. So it's not sort of, first of a kind for these guys. They really understand it pretty well. And so all that to say, I think we have a pretty good understanding of it, even though it isn't 100% locked at this point, just because generally speaking, you don't get that kind of long range commitment on pricing from [Strollers] which I think is probably why you asked the question.

Stephen Byrne

Analyst

And just real quickly, is the HTC that will be produced out of Origin 1 have a phase, what are you going to do with that?

John Bissell

Analyst

It does have a phase. We haven't disclosed exactly what that phase is going to be yet in large part because it's as is the case for most of the products that are coming out of Origin 1 those products are being used for commercial and market development and application development for products other than PET and other than HTC and so we really see that as an opportunity to advanced the ball in some of the higher margin, higher value kind of product areas for us. So that also means that we're as typical for us, we're working with other companies on those products and applications and we disclose them when those companies are when we are ready to disclose them, but I don't think we've done so for HTC at this point. But it will have a depth in it.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mark Connelly of Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Thank you, very happy to hear Nate's comments on inflation. But we're obviously seeing a lot of companies across a lot of industries, spending more on topics, even get things done with more certainty or because this stuff has gotten more expensive. So how have you guys been impacted so far? And are there significant pressure points if this, labor short transportation constraint environment continues?

John Bissell

Analyst

Yes. So I think, you're right, yes, sure. We have seen, as you say there is movement in the supply chain. We are seeing and placed in certain areas. But I'd say, for Origin 1 in particular, we've seen I'd say modest impacts there and frankly there have been both puts and takes on it. And so that's why we feel pretty comfortable. But we're very comfortable. I said, we're going to deliver that on budget in our prior capital budget. I think for Origin 2, we had looked at that originally, with materials prices that were substantially higher than what a lot of us were seeing in 2020 and we just carried those forecasts across. We didn't take advantage of the trough in materials pricing, and labor pricing everybody saw in 2020. And so from that perspective, I think frankly, we're sort of seeing a return to what we were expecting the prices to be when we originally put that forecast together. And for Origin 1, of course, we've actually, we've made a lot of those purchases already for raw materials in the places where you see some of that inflation occurring.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

And second question, your initial comment on CMF and HTC from Origin 1 and 2 are going to be relatively limited, considering the size of the market and the potential interest. My understanding is your strategy has been reserved some of that tonnage for new development customers. But how do you prioritize given that you've got early sponsors and early customers that are likely to want more than you can actually produce?

John Bissell

Analyst

That's a great question. So the way that we think about that is really which it has to in which products and which markets are strategic for us. And a lot of that has to do with where do we see and this is probably unsurprising, where do we see the performance of our sort of non dropping non PET products, where do we see the performance advantages really show up? What are those applications? And how do we double down essentially with that material or those applications? And I'd say the other thing that we find is, while our customers are always interested in more material, I did that sort of consistent drumbeat across the board for us is, they all want more. And the reality is they understand there's somewhat limited amount of material, as you say, coming out of Origin 1, relative to of course, the total market size for these applications. And so they're focused also alongside us on doing the work that is most valuable with material in order to move these markets along, beyond the sort of beyond the PET beyond dropping markets, and so I think there's, a lot of common interest in getting these markets moved along as easily as possible, even though of course, as you say, they want as much as they can get as soon as they can get it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Hi, everyone, thanks for taking the questions. Just to take that last question a little bit further. I mean, even beyond Origin 1 as you play this out, clearly, you're seeing a big expansion in what you've got under contract off takes in that 3.4. But are you sensing that your customers are starting to get concerned or at least look out a little further and see some scarcity value to the production that you're planning? And I guess I'm just wondering, is that something that you could potentially asked for prepayments or things along those lines that could maybe accelerate Origin 2 or Origin 3's timeline and then going forward?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Yes, that's a great question. So, we are placing some orders on Origin 3 already as an example, and as part of our contracting process, when we go from a capacity reservation to fully reserving the capacity. There is a choice of a prepayment or going straight to offtake and we do think it's likely that many customers will choose to make pre-payments as they have in the past. And having that demand, those pre-payments are the kinds of things will help us accelerate origin 3 to the extent we can and Origin 4 and beyond.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Yes. And just to be clear, when you talk about an Origin 1 and Origin 2 being fully funded, and also having access, you're not, it doesn't sound like you're factoring in any pre-payments. If that were to be the case, that would be above and beyond the projections that you just gave today. And as you said, it would serve to accelerate things?

Rich Riley

Analyst

It's true that we have not included prepayments in any of our funding assumptions. And if we were to receive meaningful prepayments that would clearly help fund Origin 3 and beyond.

Eric Stine

Analyst

And maybe this last one for me just curious as you've gone through this process, as things develop, the merger closes all that if anything has changed or any updated thinking on the feedstock strategy how you're approaching that?

Rich Riley

Analyst

On which strategy? Go ahead.

Eric Stine

Analyst

I mean feedstock. I mean, whether it's location. I know you can use a wide range of materials. But are you starting to think that there were a few that would be optimal? Just looking for any details there.

John Bissell

Analyst

Yes. Got it. Certainly. No, we haven't seen a huge change in our feedstock area even really much more modest one. I think what we're seeing is consistent support of our view of the feedstock market for our process, which really means lots of it available, very consistent pricing, historically, and looking forward. Obviously, we're looking at sites that have great access to feedstock and I think that includes, of course, I saw it on pulp mill residuals, but all sorts of other materials as well. And I think generally speaking, we feel like there are, frankly, if anything more opportunities than we were expecting to see these pulp mill sites than we're interesting originally. So I think definitely seeing reinforcement and maybe even more opportunity than we were expecting on the feedstock side.

Eric Stine

Analyst

And I did jump on a little late. So I apologize. But just to confirm, did you say that Origin 2, you thought that or you were hoping to have a site selected? Was it by the end of 2021? Did I hear that correctly?

John Bissell

Analyst

That's correct.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. In your comments about financing for origin 2 you talked about commercial lending arrangements. But what's the role of the public sector? And how you're thinking about Origin 2?

Nate Whaley

Analyst

Pavel its Nate, let me see if I can take that one. It's a great question. One, I think that you thought first, you have to remember that we do consider ourselves fully funded. And we see that through a combination of what our traditional project financing, and that does include some government support programs, we think there are some terrific programs available through loan guarantees, for instance, domestically through the USDA, U.S. Department of Energy. But we also are fully prepared to do this through conventional project finance or the municipal bond market.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Understood. Those are all options. How many sites for Origin 2 are you choosing from and I guess what's the geographic scope of those options?

John Bissell

Analyst

Yes. Sure. So generally speaking we saw many dozens of potential sites at the sort of top of the funnel that satisfied our roughest criteria. And then as we've honed that down we're seeing let's call it 6 to 8 sites at this point that we think are really good sites that meet every single one of our criteria, and each of which would be spectacular. I think generally speaking the Gulf region broadly, is attractive geographically, because it has generally low cost of feedstock, it has lots of extremely skilled labor, both on the construction and the operational side. It has an incredibly knowledgeable sort of industry infrastructure around capital projects and processes of this sort. So I think that I would say that that is likely. But I wouldn't, at this point, narrow it down beyond that, although we have again, we have a handful of sites that we're extremely excited about.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is a follow up from Mark Connelly of Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Thank you. Just a couple of big picture questions. You've pointed out in the past that the big plastic producers aren't your competitors, but our potential customers, partners to others? What needs to happen for those relationships to grow? And what will we see from the outside? When are we going to see these? And what's it going to look like?

Rich Riley

Analyst

I'll start and maybe John, you can add, if I missed anything, but we have existing relationships with Solvay, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, [Indiscernible] and few other chemical companies where they're taking our materials, and then further engineering them into higher value applications, including going into engine components and things like that. So we certainly see them as sort of customers in a way of taking our materials to market. We've also talked about the towing relationships and partnerships like that, which are in active discussions. And then we've also talked about our open mindedness towards licensing as we try to get more supply online over time. So we really approach those partnerships with a very open mind, and with a lot of different ways to work together.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Do you expect in the next six months to be telling us about more of these kinds of relationships? That's really sort of what I'm looking for is the timing?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Yes. Timing is always hard with these big, big companies and big partnerships. But we have an active pipeline of conversations going on with other chemical companies. So I would think we would have things to share in the coming months.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Second question, as we think about the transition to CMF and I suppose HTC, but I'm more interested in CMF. What role in getting that message out to consumers? Are you going to play versus your customers? Are you expecting most of the plastic buyers to be the ones that really do the promoting of this? I'm just trying to understand how you think about you mentioned early on easy gets all the press So how do you attract more attention?

Rich Riley

Analyst

Yes. So we'll certainly be as visible and promoting as much as we can. But if you think about the magnitude of some of our partners think about the Pepsi's and Nestlé’s and Danone of the world and the Fords and others that we're talking to and I think their marketing platforms and ability to put things on labels and deliver consumer messages will be really what pushes it through.

Mark Connelly

Analyst

Yes. I wasn't expecting you to tell me there was going to be a big ad budget. Just went with respect to Origin 1 and 2 what kind of milestone should we be watching for in the second half to know whether you're on track? And what are we likely to hear from you?

John Bissell

Analyst

Yes. Great question. Actually, the big ones to look for are for Origin 1 is the erection of the modules. Getting those modules up and, and bolted down to the foundation is we don't expect it to accelerate the overall timeline for Origin 1. But hitting that ahead of schedule, the way that we're now expecting to or ahead of our original schedule I think really shows that we're moving this thing along. Right. And I think it gives us just yet another thing to look at and say, okay, this is moving the way it's supposed to. So I think that's one that I would look for and I think the second one on Origin 2 is really site selection. We mentioned in our prepared remarks that we had selected Worley in particular to work with us on the front end engineering for Origin 2. Worley is sort of best in class in this kind of stuff. And so bringing them in we were originally anticipating to announce that more like end of the year, and so we pulled that forward quite a bit. We've gotten it done already. So we're moving along there. And then I think that the second big one is one that came up in the earlier question when are we going to have the site selected and we're still anticipating having that selected by the end of the year. So I think that's what I would keep an eye out for.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Riley for any closing remarks.

Rich Riley

Analyst

Thanks everyone for joining us today. We look forward to future discussions, updating you on our progress. Have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.