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Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 9, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Second Quarter 2018, Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your hosts, Ms. Lisa Kampf, Head of Investor Relations; Claude LeBlanc, Chief Executive Officer; and David Trick, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Kampf

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you all for joining today's conference call to discuss Ambac Financial Group's second quarter of 2018 financial results. We'd like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance of events. Actual performance and events may differ, possibly materially from such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause this include the factors described in our most recent SEC-filed quarterly or annual report under Management's Discussion & Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and under Risk Factors. Ambac is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Today's presentation contains non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures are included in our earnings press release, which is available on our Web site at ambac.com. Please note that presentations have been posted to the Events & Presentations section of our IR Web site, which support our comments today. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Claude LeBlanc.

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Thank you, Lisa, and welcome to everyone joining today's call. This has been another busy and productive quarter for Ambac. In June we announced the execution of a support agreement with certain holders of our Auction Market Preferred Shares or AMPS and in July launched a tender offer for all of the outstanding AMPS in our efforts to further deleverage and simplify Ambac's capital structure. This exchange offer was successfully closed on August 3. The transaction was completed with holders representing 84.4% of our outstanding AMPS, who exchanged their positions for a consideration package consisting of surplus notes, cash and holding company warrants. David will provide greater detail on the transaction shortly, but the transaction delivered several benefits including first, an increase in our financial and strategic flexibility with a discount capture of approximately 227 million. Second, improvement in the quality of our book value and adjusted book value and lastly clarity with respect to our corporate governance structure and increased flexibility with respect to future potential capital distributions. We're pleased with the level of participation of the AMP holders and the outcome of the exchange offer as well as the other long-term benefits of this transaction for Ambac and its shareholders. During the quarter, the company and its advisors were also actively involved in mediation discussions to resolve Ambac's largest Puerto Rico exposure, the COFINA senior bonds. Yesterday, the FOMB released an overview summary of some of the key terms for securities forming part of a consensual COFINA plan of adjustments. Ambac has been a party to these negotiations and continues to be involved in the ongoing negotiations. As noted in the disclosure, the announced transaction is subject to final terms are set forth in separate defendable written agreements. Because of the confidential measure of mediation, we cannot comment…

David Trick

Analyst

Thank you, Claude and good morning. For the second quarter of 2018 Ambac reported net income of 4 million or $0.09 per diluted share compared to net income of 306 million or $6.70 per share for the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted earnings in the second quarter were 36 million or $0.78 per diluted share, compared to adjusted earnings of 330 million or $7.22 per diluted share in the first quarter. Compared to the first quarter our second quarter results reflect higher losses incurred, higher interest expense lower investment income and lower derivative gains partially offset by higher realized investment gains and lower operating expenses. Much of this variability related to the execution of the rehabilitation exit transactions during the first quarter of 2018 and the resulting changes to our financial position, which became more apparent during the second quarter. Consequently I will focus today's prepared remarks on the main drivers of our second quarter results. The segregated account rehabilitation exit transactions had a meaningful impact on the size and composition of the investment portfolio as well as the pace of recognition of discount accretion on AAC insured RMBS. These transactions were the principal drivers to a decline in second quarter investment income, which amounted to 67 million, a 44 million or 39% decline from 110 million for the first quarter of 2018. Included in second quarter net investment income were gains on invested assets classified as trading of 3.6 million compared to losses of 1.6 million in the first quarter of 2018. The improved performance was driven mostly by the favorable performance of equity markets on investment at Ambac UK. Net realized gains for the second quarter totaled 47 million as compared to 5 million in the first quarter. The principal source of these gains was the sale of…

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Thanks, David. We have had a busy first half of the year and as we move into the second half of 2018, we will continue to strive to execute on our strategic priorities to create additional sustainable value for our shareholders. We are optimistic about our future and remain keenly focused on taking concrete steps to create long-term value for our shareholders. Thank you for joining us today. I'll now turn the call back to the operator.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Andrew Gadlin of Odeon Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about last night's COFINA deal and the language there regarding moral lines and new bonds could be issued in trust to secure custody receipts structure. What would that mean potentially for Ambac?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for your question. As we noted in our opening remarks we are restricted in disclosing information surrounding the settlement as a result of the mediation confidentiality. But I think there have been a number of structures involving custody receipts that have been done in other like municipal finance bankruptcies in the past. So I could refer you to those and we can reference you to the information that was published by the FOMB, but really can't speak more to what's in that document.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Were any of the other structures - did any of them [indiscernible] we understand whether this would effectively disease your exposure?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Yeah, I can't really comment on those aspects and I think again depending on the structures, the actual economics and flow of securities and cash have been treated differently, but there are examples if you look back at Jefferson County and Detroit amongst other restructurings, you can get a sense of the types of structures that have been used in the past.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Okay. Thanks and then good progress on running off some of the watch list securities. Can you talk about some of the efforts underway in terms of - is the focus across the board or are you more focused right now on military, housing, student loans, et cetera?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Yeah. I think it's a blend of things. I think we certainly have an across-the-board focus to bring down our overall watchlist and ACC exposures. But we do target certain, what I'll call, heightened exposures and we also look at things opportunistically obviously. So I think it's a broad coverage and obviously strategies behind our approach in each case. So we don't discuss the details of that. But we are, as we've indicated, very heavily focused on these credits for our de-risking activities and military we are certainly be in the mix, but again I would - it's really the full spectrum of credits in those categories.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then can you discuss the circumstances around the deferral of copayments coming from ACC to the [indiscernible]? Any idea of when that could be lifted and what sort of triggers OCI is looking for there?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

We have not indicated any triggers. I think the OCI has - there have been so many transactions. We just exit a rehab - ACC separate account exit rehab. We have been involved in the AMPS transaction. So I think there's a volume issue I think that they're working through and they've indicated that they would like more time to review the tolling payment before it's paid. So we're just waiting to hear back from them. They may request additional information. We don't know at this time.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

No sense on timing?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

No specific sense on timing at this point. The payment was due in May. So it's obviously past the payment date and they request that we withhold the payment. So again we're patiently waiting and we'll be working with them to address any questions and allow them to complete the review.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Sean Lobo of Vulcan Capital. Please go ahead.

Sean Lobo

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good morning. Congrats again on the AMPS deal, from an administrative perspective, have the securities been distributed to the holders of the AMPS yet or is that still in progress?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

The new securities including the warrants and the surplus note have been distributed as of April 3 - August 3.

David Trick

Analyst

August 3, okay. Got you, good work in the quarter, that's all I have. Thank you.

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is a follow up coming from Andrew Gadlin of Odeon Capital. Please go ahead.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Thanks very much. One follow up, it looks like you sold some of the - it looks like AFG sold some of its surplus notes this quarter.

David Trick

Analyst

That's right, just a few million dollars.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Can you talk about that decision and what drove that?

David Trick

Analyst

Yeah, I think we've commented in the past that we're - at the holding companies certainly will be managing capital against a couple different of goals, one of which of course is the return on the investment of that capital of the holding company, but will also trying to balance liquidity against the various different strategic objectives we have at AFG and so we had an opportunity to sell the securities at a what we thought was a reasonable price and so we took the opportunity to generate some cash with the holding company.

Andrew Gadlin

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Just first you mentioned losses and loss adjustment expense relative to Puerto Rico. Was it more - the settlement with COFINA did that resulted in some of the adjustments or were there other factors that led to the losses and loss adjustment expense for your Puerto Rico exposure?

David Trick

Analyst

It's multitude of factors and I wouldn't say it's specific to any discussions going on with COFINA. It's a holistic approach that we take to assessing the cost of future remediation activities and certainly the time and effort spent around COFINA factors into that, but it's generally just a forward looking view of what our future costs may be and I wouldn't point any one specific thing as a driver to that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, COFINA is one of - relative to your exposures outsized right and -

David Trick

Analyst

Yeah, that's right but I would not say that LAE expenses are necessarily like a loss reserve would be tied directly to this particular size of an exposure. It's more tied sometimes to the complexity of the exposure, the time with which we think a remediation effort may take and other factors that are not necessarily purely the size.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, alright. Thank you for that. And on previous calls you started talking about new business activity and a new focus for Ambac going forward moving away from bond insurance, can just give us an update on those activities?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Sure, as we've indicated that that is a component of our overall strategy. Our core strategy remains on the de-risking of the portfolio, capital management, expense management, we have started working towards looking at new business activities and are active in that process. But we've also indicated that it's not something we're going to rush into, it's going to be a very disciplined approach and we will update the market as things progress. So we have nothing substantial to update this quarter, but we will continue our efforts and update the market in due course.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, does the completion of the rehabilitation - accelerate is probably not the word, but quicken the process towards looking at those different opportunities?

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Yeah I think there's a number of things that - the AMPS transaction, the rehab, resolution of COFINA if and when that is completed. I think all these things certainly help in terms of allowing us to reprioritize time on those efforts. But I would say that everything's happening and moving in parallel and we're focusing on all these initiatives together, but clearly the flexibility of having some of these items behind us are a benefit.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. I appreciate that, thank you very much.

Claude LeBlanc

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time this concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for participating. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.