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Oatly Group AB (OTLY)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 24, 2024

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Transcript

Brian Kearney

Management

Good morning and thanks for joining us today. On today's call are our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Christophe Flatin; our Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Ordonez; and our Chief Financial Officer, Marie-Jose David. Before we begin, please review the disclaimer on Slide 3. During this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial position, industry and business trends, business strategy, market growth and anticipated cost savings. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could differ materially from actual events or those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the documents we have filed with SEC for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Also, please note on today's call, management will refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, constant currency revenue and free cash flow. While the company believes these non-IFRS measures will provide useful information, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with IFRS. Please refer to today's release for reconciliation of the non-IFRS financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. In addition, Oatly has posted a supplemental presentation on its website for reference. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Jean-Christophe.

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Management

Thank you, Brian and good morning, everyone. Slide 5 has the key messages I want you to take away from today's presentation. First, during the second quarter, we continue to make good progress on strengthening the business and moving towards achieving profitable growth. You can see that clearly in our accelerated top line growth and improved margins as well as how we are activating the brand in each of our markets. This continued improvement is driven by our progress on our 2024 strategic priorities of bringing the Oatly magic to more people, continuing our calibration of resources and a continued focus on executional excellence. Finally, given our solid performance through the first half of the fiscal year and an increased confidence in our second half performance, we are updating our full year guidance to be slightly more favorable than the previous outlook. We now expect constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 10% compared to our prior guidance of 5% to 10%. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of minus $35 million to minus $50 million compared to our prior guidance of minus $35 million to minus $60 million. And capital expenditures to be below $70 million compared to our higher guidance of below $75 million. Turning now to our report card on Slide 6. Here, you can see we continue to make good progress on our journey towards profitable growth. As you can see, total company volume accelerated to a strong 10% year-over-year increase in the quarter as we drove volume growth in every region. Gross margin increased sequentially by approximately 200 basis points in this quarter to 29% which is 10 full percentage points higher than last year's second quarter. This is a significant improvement from the 11% margin we reported for the full year 2022.…

Daniel Ordonez

Management

Thank you, J.C. and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my discussion on slide 13 with our largest operating segment that is European & International. This segment reported solid results in the quarter with constant currency revenue growth of 7.5%, approximately in line with quarter 1. Adjusted EBITDA of $12.6 million was slightly below quarter 1's level, largely due to seasonality and timing of promotional events and investments. On a year-on-year basis, we were very much higher than last year's quarter 2 levels. On Slide 14, you can see we're seeing broad-based strength in the segment. The retail side of the business grew 7% and the foodservice side grew 9% in the quarter. As we have discussed in the past, we believe there is significant opportunity to drive solid robust growth in the foodservice channel. On the right hand side, you can see our established markets grew volume by a solid 6% in the quarter. These are markets where we have operated for many years and they continue to drive solid mid-single digit growth rates. The European markets where we have recently expanded, drove a strong 24% volume growth in the quarter. So overall, we are executing very well. Slide 15 shows the retail channel data for some of our largest new European markets. You can clearly see here, we are driving the entire category. For instance, in Spain which is the second largest plant-based beverage market in Europe and in Belgium which is the oldest and where the category was first created. In essence, Oatly catalyzes growth once we enter a market. The same dynamics we experienced when we entered markets like the U.K. or Germany in the past. I have said it in the past and I will say it again and again, there is a clear difference between…

Marie-Jose David

Management

Thank you, Daniel and good morning, everyone. Slide 25 shows an overview of the quarterly P&L. We reported 3.2% year-over-year revenue growth and constant currency revenue growth of 3.9%. Gross margin for the quarter was 29.2% which is 1,000 basis points higher than a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $11 million which is $41.5 million improvement compared to last year's second quarter. Overall, we had a solid performance in the quarter and the first half. Slide 26 shows the bridging items of our total company portfolio revenue growth. Volume grew 9.6% and price mix was a 5.7% headwind for a 3.9% constant currency revenue growth. Foreign exchange was a headwind of 0.7%, resulting in a 3.2% total revenue growth for the quarter. Slide 27 shows the revenue bridge by segment. J.C. and Daniel's presentation outlined everything we're doing in each region to drive solid growth. And the other takeaway of this slide is that each region drove solid volume growth as our strategic initiatives and growth plans continue to work. Europe & International continued to report solid growth with 7.5% constant currency revenue growth led by 5.7% volume growth. North America's revenue growth of 9.7% was driven mainly by the strong 8.3% volume growth. Greater China, 15.9% constant currency decline was driven largely by the actions we have taken as part of the segment's strategic reset plan we announced on last year's second quarter earnings call. The sales headwinds in the quarter from the strategic reset were partially offset by sales to a new customer that is focused on the lower price value tier. This customer mix has a clear impact on the segment's bridge with a large volume increase and an impact on price mix. Since we will start to anniversary the reset next quarter, we…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

I wanted to ask a little bit about the cadence of pricing for the rest of the year. Obviously, there was a big deceleration in China in the second quarter. I know you had some comments about China in the back half of the year. Unfortunately, I don't know if I had a tough connection or it was a little tough to hear. But if you could just repeat what you said about China back half growth and kind of potentially weave thoughts about pricing in that segment and really around the world. That would be helpful.

Daniel Ordonez

Management

It's Daniel here. I will start by addressing China in particular but your question is the most specific. And then I'll try to give you a color of the overall outlook on pricing but perhaps in general, right? So in China, we made solid progress during the quarter knowing that the quarter 2 year-on-year net revenue growth does not fully reflect the progress because it's still impacted by the strategic resets we've executed over the past year. One area in which we made very solid progress this quarter, Ken, is the added addition of a new very important customer that operates in the growing and important mid-priced tier segment. So as we said in the prepared remarks, we are not concerned about that. And this overall value creation from the SG&A reset, the higher volume and stronger absorption can be seen in the overall company margin performance and the segment's EBITDA reported figure. So as we move forward again in China, we expect to solidify this quarter 2 performance helped by a more favorable base as we lap the last year's reset. So it's all the price mix and the effect of the reset overall. Then when it comes to general pricing assumptions, Ken, in terms of outlook, in Europe, expect consistent year-on-year solid performance across the P&L lines. And in North America, we expect consistent performance and a slight improvement driven by more favorable overall base and less headwinds, thanks to the new terms agreed with that important customer in foodservice we've mentioned before. So as you can see, I'm not addressing specifically pricing but you can see the different mix volume, growth effects and the overall equation, Ken and hope that's okay.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

That's helpful. And just a follow-up, if I may. As you think about the ranges of your top and bottom line guidance, are there any particular risks or upside scenarios that we should think of that might be the most important just as you were kind of crafting the updated guidance. Any particular underlying factors we should think about that might lead to the higher or lower end?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Management

Thanks, Ken, for the follow-up question. J.C. speaking. First, I think it's important to know that we are pleased with our performance in the first half of the year and we have outperformed our internal expectations. Specifically, on the top line, as we said, we have delivered the expected gains in distribution in both new and existing markets. We've made progress on selling in our new products to customer and we made progress as well driving trial with consumers. On the bottom line, we've just shared with you the progress we have made both on the supply chain recalibration as well as SG&A recalibration. So the fact that we are seeing our actions both on results calibration and demand generation delivered the expected results has led us to update our guidance. Now double clicking on your question, how have we calibrated our new guidance range? Since we have been seeing good traction in many of our demand generating activities, we've decided to take a portion of our first half outperformance and reinvest it into additional demand driving investments to help further accelerate the growth in the second half and going into 2025. As a consequence, the unfavorable end of our EBITDA range now assumes that this investment would not bring the full return we saw in H1.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Just was wondering if you could unpack the EBITDA thinking a little bit. And maybe just, any cadence, is there -- you've shown, let's say, for the gross margin, they're kind of pretty steady improvement. Should we just think about EBITDA the same way through the back half? And can you give a sense and sorry if I might have missed this but any updated thoughts on when total company positive EBITDA would be within reach?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Management

Thank you so much, Michael. J.C., again, good to hear you. I think let's be super clear upfront, achieving profitable growth is and remains our unique North Star and I am and we are fully committed to it. Clearly, as you have just heard, we are pleased with the significant structural progresses we have made so far, illustrated Exhibit 1, gross margin increase Exhibit 2, SG&A recalibration that we have highlighted in our prepared remarks and just in our conversation with Ken. Having said this, we know we still have plenty of work to do to get to our longer term targets and this is exactly why we know because we know we still have remaining progress journey in front of us with 3 segments in 3 different situation of maturity, execution and performance that I don't want us to commit to a specific date of reaching profitability. We want to continue to make the right decisions day-by-day, one after the other to bring this business to profitable growth as quickly as possible. And I don't want us to make this decision for what is -- I want us to make this decision for what is right for the business and not to land on a specific date.

Michael Lavery

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on SG&A, I guess, tied to corporate costs. You've talked about some of the SG&A cost savings but corporate at least has been pretty flat. Is that the right expense level? Should we expect it to stay there? Is there any room for improvement going forward there? Or just how to think about what the SG&A impact is on that corporate line?

Marie-Jose David

Management

Yes, sure. Michael, this is Marie-Jose speaking. You're right. We mentioned that it's pretty flat compared to last year but we also mentioned, right, that it includes expenses related to some global initiatives that benefit all segments. So this is the takeaway of the quarter. Now, we continue to work definitely on SG&A recalibration. We have done some -- if you recall, we have already shared that we have done 2 rounds of savings program. We continue to work on that and we continue to deliver on a long term target, as J.C. just mentioned. So corporate, we expect corporate to be approximately flat going forward.

Michael Lavery

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

So all the SG&A cuts are just in the segments then? Is it just that simple?

Marie-Jose David

Management

I did not understand the question. Sorry, Michael. Say that again?

Michael Lavery

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Well -- so yes, so I guess, at least where it nets out if you're making these SG&A cuts, they really are within the segments and corporate costs are just kind of running steady. Is that the right way to think about it?

Marie-Jose David

Management

Yes, absolutely. Overall, yes.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst · Jefferies.

We're hearing a lot about the slowdown in away from home consumption at coffee shops and foodservice and across sort of the board. As you think about sort of that incremental upside that you're reinvesting into the business, can you maybe just talk about is it in an effort to sort of bend the curve on what's happening on that side? Or is it in -- is it more broad in terms of where you're spending it?

Daniel Ordonez

Management

Kaumil, how are you doing? This is Daniel. Just to double click on your question to make sure I understand and responded properly. Are you talking about the generalized market slowdown? Or are you referring to us?

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst · Jefferies.

Generalized market slowdown.

Daniel Ordonez

Management

Okay. Thank you for your question. No, I have to go back to not just to these prepared remarks but to the few last ones which we don't see such a slowdown for ourselves. We have consistently invested resources both quality and quantity across the 3 regions and we're pretty pleased with the progress we are making. You will recall significant growth in the channel which I have referred a few -- in a few occasions for us has different layers within the channel, different subsegments in which we balance both accelerated growth and profitability -- margin and profitability. So we see a good picture ahead of us that you can see already in the numbers and the outlook is positive too. We will continue to invest on this because this is where we do bring the Oatly magic. J.C. talks about it in every single remark. This is where the consumers experience the brands and we see a bright outlook for us, Kaumil. I hope that's helpful.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst · Jefferies.

And then when I think about or I guess when we all think about the exit costs, a lot of these sort of onetime cash or non-cash exit costs for things, are we largely complete? Or should we expect more over the course of the year?

Marie-Jose David

Management

So this is Marie-Jose. In the prepared remarks, you saw that we have called out year-to-date $13 million out of the $20 million that we have announced a quarter ago -- 2 quarters ago. So we have $7 million to go. Those $7 million will occur as we have already planned which is through the end of fiscal 2025. So definitely, we're on track and really nothing to call out here.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst · Jefferies.

Okay, great. So nothing else? That's everything according to plan, I guess?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Management

Yes, correct.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Just to follow-up on Michael's question, any flavor on Q3 versus Q4 EBITDA progression specifically in the back half of the year? Just trying to frame the quarterly EBITDA progress as we think about your path to profitability. And specifically as you look out to 2025, I know you won't lay out goals today but can you just discuss conceptually, are there additional cost savings you think you can go after for 2025, just after the profitability focus here in 2024?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Management

J.C. speaking. So first of all, broadly on your quarter-on-quarter comparison. I think broadly, you can expect Q4 being better than Q3. But of course, as you know, we will not be guiding by quarter, so that's the trend I want you to have. And just building on your second point which is SG&A and building on what Marie-Jose has well explained earlier. First, let's share our belief. Our belief is that in any business, the chase for efficiency should never stop. We are constantly and will always dynamically look for ways to become more efficient. It's our competitiveness duty of any business to permanently adapt and adjust and this applies across the entire company. So that's what we will be doing. Clearly, we are not trying to signal that we are planning new massive SG&A reductions. What we are saying is, we want to complete our work on the previously communicated reductions. And then we believe that once this is done, we believe that our SG&A structure in total will be the appropriate size for the company. So more work to do, a mindset of permanent efficiency change overall in the company at the service of our mission.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho.

John Baumgartner

Analyst · Mizuho.

Maybe first off, for Marie-Jose, in terms of the free cash, what was behind the provision that was recorded in Q2 in cash from operations? That line has been volatile over the last couple of quarters and had a big impact on Q2 cash. I guess, aside from that, what are your expectations for cash burn in the back half of the year? And is it possible to see cash from operations turn positive at some point? Or is that still a little bit optimistic?

Marie-Jose David

Management

Let me just answer to the first one. Provisions wise, we are talking about the legal settlements. We are talking about the severances, so this is the 2 big buckets. When it comes to our liquidity position, we remain strong in our liquidity position, right? We are at $335 million and our cash positions remained sufficient to fully fund our business plan. Now if you look at what happened in this quarter, you have noticed as well the past quarter that we have called exceptional elements such as exiting our factories. Looking forward, those elements will not happen. So when you look at the way of how you want to model our liquidity, keep in mind that we had, over the past 2 quarters, some exceptional elements that saved up to $31 million that will not happen moving forward. This is what I can say. I'm not going to give you guidance on the phasing. But keep in mind, strong cash, $335 million exceptional elements as we speak. And definitely, what I want to say is that, big focus on liquidity, big focus on cash through what we already discussed which is improvement in adjusted EBITDA which is improvement in net working capital metrics. And as you noted this quarter, we have reduced as well our CapEx, so through CapEx management. Hope that helps.

John Baumgartner

Analyst · Mizuho.

And then, Daniel, in terms of your newer markets in Europe, in some of these markets like Spain, it's more of a private label market with smaller brands and sort of lacks a dominant branded leader. Then you have other markets like France where you've got one big branded company with dominant market share and the influence of private label and smaller brands is comparatively lower. To what extent are you managing your entry approaches differently based on the different competitive landscapes in these markets? I'm curious how you're navigating that and what you're seeing in terms of the competitive response.

Daniel Ordonez

Management

Fabulous; one of my favorite topics. Listen, you're absolutely right to call out that we don't take any market as equal. As you have just seen, for instance, we just recently launched in Mexico, no market is alike. What is alike obviously is our model which is proven to work in any of them so far. So I will put a spin on your question, if you don't mind. But first, by giving you an overall view about the new markets. We're really, really excited about the progress we're making. And we, as you can imagine, we've thought long and hard about starting to show progress in these quarterly calls. Every city we land, we have now proof that the magic of the brand and how these markets are prepared to welcome Oatly with open arms is really material. So that's number one there. When we are executing the model that I just called out, like in France, Spain or Belgium, we are growing in triple digits. It's pretty impressive. So -- and you see the impact. No matter how different the market is, it seems to be lifting the overall category growth to very significant levels, whether it's France or Spain. What I would -- I wouldn't categorize them as private label or not. That's what you may see in the numbers. The reality is when looking at the level of maturity which is totally different. The uptake in coffee space which you cannot see in numbers in any market data is tremendous. And the speed which we also reach the number one velocity in the retail space in this market is extraordinary. We are now the number one turning brand in Spain, France and Belgium; so it's pretty impressive. This is how we should look also at the…

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Kearney for any closing remarks.

Brian Kearney

Management

Thanks everyone for joining us. Feel free to send me an e-mail and we can set up a follow-up call if you're interested. Thanks a lot. Bye.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.