Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the OUTFRONT Media Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gregory Lundberg. Please go ahead, sir.
Outfront Media Inc. (OUT)
Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016
$30.88
+1.21%
Same-Day
-1.52%
1 Week
+5.55%
1 Month
+1.33%
vs S&P
-3.57%
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the OUTFRONT Media Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gregory Lundberg. Please go ahead, sir.
Gregory Lundberg - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations
Management
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining our 2015 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. On the call today are Jeremy Male, Chief Executive Officer, and Donald Shassian, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After a discussion of our financial results, we'll open up the lines for a question-and-answer session. A slide presentation to accompany today's call can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website along with the earnings release and an audio webcast. This conference call may include forward-looking statements. Relative factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are listed in our earnings materials and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on the call. Any references to OIBDA and AFFO made today will be on an adjusted and REIT comparable basis, respectively, both of which are reconciled along with other non-GAAP financial measures in the appendix of the slide presentation, the earnings release, and on our website, outfrontmedia.com. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jeremy. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Greg. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Now please turn to slide four, the key highlights of the quarter. I'll begin with revenue growth. The growing top line is the single most important factor in our ability to deliver growth and value to our shareholders. And in the fourth quarter, we grew revenues 4.3% organically. This compares favorably to our growth in the past two quarters and, importantly, this growth was distributed across our asset portfolio. We improved growth rates once again in U.S. billboards and we delivered a very strong double-digit organic growth in transit nationwide. Not only did we have a good…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And we will hear first from Marci Ryvicker [Wells Fargo].
Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Thanks. I have a couple of questions. First, in light of the strongest fourth quarter of any of your peers, can you just give a little bit of color on the first quarter revenue guidance, why the deceleration? Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, thanks, Marci. Look, Q4 in 2015 was a good quarter for us. I think it's important when we look at our growth and consider it in the light of our peers, you can't always draw a straight line between us and our peers. We operate in slightly different market sectors. We have more exposure to transit, for example. And we have slightly different exposure to our geographies. But, overall, I think it's fair to say that we were reasonably pleased with the development of the business and our revenues in Q4. I think as we look forward into the first quarter, we had a pretty strong growth rate in Q1 2015. We were up actually over 5% in our U.S. business. We had a very strong performance in our transit business. We also had a pretty good contribution to both billboards and transit actually from the NBA All-Star Game, which disappeared this year from New York and actually went up to Toronto. So we missed a bit of revenue there. So, looking forward, I think low single-digits and, as I said, much more consistent growth across both our billboard and our transit businesses.
Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Okay. And I didn't hear a mention of the New York MTA contract, so I assume the RFP has not – is not out yet? Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Marci, it feels a little bit like Groundhog Day for me whenever I'm asked about the MTA. I think we first started talking about it, in earnest, if we go back to Thanksgiving 2014. The simple answer is that the MTA RFP isn't out yet. It is in their hands. We don't have any control of that. You'll recall that our contract was extended to have a potential end date at the end of this year. There was some optionality in them having the ability to terminate the middle of this year. I think from where we are right now, and not seeing an RFP, that's highly unlikely. So we're certain so that won't be the case. So I think we can pretty safely say we'll be going right through to the end of this year. The RFP will come out when it comes out. We remain very confident in our ability to win this RFP when it comes out. As always, I will say we're never arrogant, but we're absolutely ready to bid this contract just as soon as we see that RFP.
Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Got it. The last question for me, I know billboards were up. Both digital and static billboards were up in the quarter? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Same-board yield question, Marci, the static billboard was up, same-board digital was down, consistent with what it has been in the past several quarters. But static yields were up very strong this past quarter, the strongest quarter for the year.
Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Got it. Thank you so much. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And we'll now go to Alexia Quadrani [JPMorgan].
Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Management
Hi. Thank you. Just two questions. I guess, first, on all the M&A we're seeing in the outdoor industry right now, I guess, can you comment on the competition? What the environment looks like, maybe a little bit of color in terms of how competitive Reynolds was? And then if you could provide some color about, I guess, why you passed or why you were not involved in CCOA. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Alexia, thanks for the question. You know what? When it comes to M&A for OUTFRONT Media, I think the headline for us is smart and selective. As a leading company in this industry, we look at virtually every transaction that's in the marketplace. We have qualitative and quantitative criteria that we look at. And not every transaction is a perfect fit for us. Not all can be executed at the right price or the timing relative to other things we have going on. And our valuation may be different than others. Revenue and expense synergies that we may see or may not see can be different than others and that drives different valuations. We are seeing today, continue to see some tuck-ins that are out there, and we continue to look at them and we will continue to be very selective. Reynolds itself was a competitive bidding process. We did not disclose the price or the revenues at the seller's request. So it was not a material transaction, we didn't disclose it, but it was a seller's request to not do so. What I can tell you is that we paid a multiple on EBITDA that is significantly below our public trading multiple and I can tell you that that transaction is immediately accretive to AFFO per share. We are – continue to look at transactions. We think there's a lot of things that continue to be out there. And we're committed to also be smart about these – smart and selective because we're not going to go after everything that's out there. We are committed to getting our leverage down and we'll look at things where it makes sense. And if it's not – if it's a nice to have, we're not going to go and lean into. If it's a must-have, we'll lean into it. But we are really committed to using our balance sheet smart and growing things in the right way that meets our criteria. Does that help?
Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Management
Yeah. That's very helpful. And then just one follow-up, if I might, and I apologize if you said this and I missed it. But on the better growth we're seeing in the static billboards in the quarter, did you give any – if you'd give any color maybe on the different verticals that drove that? Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: What we can say, if we look at the sort of top verticals for us by dollar change in that quarter, also was very strong for us in Q4. And it looks as though that's continuing into this year. And government was second by dollar change, and third was health. Drags actually were movies, interestingly, in Q4. Casinos, which has been frankly a category that was difficult all year. And in the quarter, beer and liquor, there was similarly also a category that was a little bit down for us across the 12-month period.
Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Management
Thank you very much. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We'll continue on to Ben Swinburne. Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. Good afternoon. Can I ask on the AFFO guidance, presumably that includes the Latin American assets. I realize it's small dollars, but that includes the Latin American assets until they are sold. And, Don, can you give us anything else that could help us with the build there, particularly cash paid for direct lease acquisition costs? Any comment on cash taxes, just a couple of the pieces that help us build it. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: The guidance anticipates LatAm being with us for a portion of the year. It also includes the tuck-ins that we have completed to-date. So really it's – we're expecting that LatAm is going to close in the first half of the year. And we've announced a couple of transactions that are relatively small and meshed in there. The pieces on LatAm – LatAm overall, when you look at an OIBDA and AFFO, we really haven't given out a lot of color on it. I would say that the amounts that are paid on commissions are pretty consistent as a percentage of revenue of all the rest of the businesses. And so I think that's probably the best guidance that we really can give you. And taxes is not that significant. Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: No. I meant – sorry, not on LatAm, I meant overall for the company. The cash taxes and acquisition costs then for 2016, should it look like 2015? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I'm sorry. My bad, Ben. Acquisition cost should look like 2015. Cash taxes I think you'll see that – we've…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Tracy Young with Evercore.
Tracy Young - Evercore ISI
Management
Yeah. I have a couple. In terms of the digital business or your guidance, I guess, for Q1, does that imply anything about the digital business in terms of yield? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. I wouldn't say that – we're seeing digital yields and the whole digital business right now is doing very, very well. I mean, we analyze our digital boards quite strongly. We're seeing a big push by all of our sales people. We're putting a big emphasis on growing. I don't think that by itself is a reflection of the low single-digit guidance that Jeremy gave. I think the low single-digit really is – excuse the bluntness – first quarter last year was a heck of a quarter. It was a really strong quarter. And while we're working off of a really good comp, that's great. Some things are tough to repeat like the NBA All-Star Game that Jeremy talked about. We're seeing static billboard and digital billboard doing very, very well. And there is nothing to be looking under the covers for that one. It's really I think doing pretty well.
Tracy Young - Evercore ISI
Management
Okay, great. Last quarter, I believe New York and L.A. were particularly strong in terms of your markets. Are you still seeing or did you see the same in Q4? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Go ahead. I'm sorry. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I mean, geographically, if we look back to the year as a whole and including Q4, New York and L.A. were both geographically very good for us. Yes. They also happen to be our two largest markets, which helps.
Tracy Young - Evercore ISI
Management
Yes, thanks. And then you mentioned the $3.2 million of strategic business expenses in Q4. Should we expect something similar in Q1? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I would still say in that zone, yes.
Tracy Young - Evercore ISI
Management
Okay. Thank you very much. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Tracy.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We'll go to Jason Bazinet with Citi.
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Broker
Thanks. I ask this only because the buy side is so focused on recession risks. But can you just give us a ballpark estimate of how much revenue you could absorb in terms of declines before you'd have to potentially cut the dividend? And how does that compare to a garden-variety recession if you sort of look further back in time than the Great Recession? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, Jason, I'm going to have to start shooting from the hip here. It's something we planned and we've looked at. We've got a – we believe that dividend is sacrosanct. It is extremely important to us. We've got a payout ratio today of 80% on free cash flow. So there is a very significant – you're talking $188 million dividend on $230-some-odd million of free cash flow, so there is about $50 million of room of free cash flow right there. You gross that up for revenues. You're talking a very large amount, you'd have to look at our CapEx, the free cash flow number includes growth CapEx, which we could stop on a heartbeat. Our $60 million of CapEx we did this year, we've got a very large amount of that, which you can just cut off and really put on a sequester for a period of time and move it to another point in time. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think the other point is, in that kind of real recessionary type environment and then there are other costs that we can go forward in the business. If you look back to the sort of 2009 time, all the outdoor companies actually found within what we understand is a fixed cost business, actually there are costs that you can take out. And I think it's also worth repeating I think that came up on one of our peer calls and that is that right now we have pretty good percentage of our revenues booked for the year. We are sort of well north of 50% and right now be it in terms of either our national business or indeed our local business, there's nothing to tell us that we're going down this – going down that kind of road.
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Broker
Right, okay. Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And, in fact, on the U.S. side, Jeremy, 60% of last year's revenue in the U.S. has already been booked. I mean, this clearly has been pretty strong bookings coming in.
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Broker
Interesting. Is that contractual, though? I mean, in other words, if someone books it, can't they always pull it? Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Those are contractual to a period. So we have locked out those down. You got to work with your customers. But those – if they want to pull out, you've got to play with them. They sort of have a – they probably have a 60 day out, but people made commitments and we continue to see commitments near term and longer term throughout the year. So we're not seeing – I understand the question, I understand some of the sentiment that may be out there. We're not seeing it.
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Broker
You're not alone. No one is seeing it. Thank you very much for the answer. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks for the question, Jason.
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Broker
Yes, you bet.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And we have a question from Drew Borst with Goldman Sachs. Drew M. Borst - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi, guys. Thanks. I wanted to ask about the growth CapEx. I noticed that it looks like you're expecting it to increase about $6 million in 2016? And if I heard you right, I think the digital board rollout will be pretty similar. So I'm kind of wondering what's driving the increase. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Drew, actually, if you look back to this time last year, we guided pretty much the same, and that's sort of $65 million to $70 million range. There is nothing particular in that. We've probably got a slightly larger envelope out there just to – if anything comes up that if we get some decision to go out and make some great capital investments over that time, it sort of gives us that cover. But overall, I wouldn't expect there to be too much difference between this year and last year. One thing that we are looking to do is enhance some of our billboards. We're looking at sort of enhancing some of the lighting, which we think will increase value on some of those boards. There is a bit of that in there. But we'll keep updating that CapEx guidance on a quarterly basis. And as I say, the guidance today was actually in line with what we gave this time last year. Drew M. Borst - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. On the strategic business initiative expense, Don, I heard your comment about the first quarter being similar at about $3.2 million. How about for the rest of the year? What do you expect to see? Donald R. Shassian - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And with no additional questions, I would like to turn the floor back over to Jeremy Male for any additional or closing remarks. Jeremy John Male - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, operator. And firstly, thanks to all of you for your questions and your time today. And we look forward to seeing many of you at investor conferences over the next couple of weeks. Thanks very much, again.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all again for your participation.