Earnings Labs

Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 28, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Oxford Industries fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ms. Anne Shoemaker for opening remarks and introductions.

Anne Shoemaker

Management

Thank you, Jeff. And good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statement. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at OxfordInc.com. Please note that all financial results and outlook information discussed on this call, unless otherwise noted, are from continuing operations and all per share amounts are on a diluted basis. As a reminder, the results from the Ben Sherman business are reflected as discontinued operations for all periods presented. Also, on April 19, 2016, the company acquired Southern Tide. Please note that fiscal 2017, which ended February 3, 2018, was a 53-week year, with the extra week included in the fourth quarter. Comparable store sales for fiscal 2017 and the fourth quarter are calculated on 53 to 53 and 14 to 14-week basis respectively. And now, I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmyer, CFO. Thank you for your attention. And I'll now turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Good afternoon. And thank you for joining us. As we begin our new fiscal year, I'm pleased to begin by recapping the success we achieved with regard to operational objectives and financial performance over the course of 2017. As you know, it was a tough year for many companies in our industry and I'm proud of our organization for setting us apart from the pack and demonstrating true industry leadership. I'll talk about our progress and performance on an enterprise-level and give you some detail on the accomplishments of our individual brands, each of which did a great job this past year. Those comments should provide you with good context for the outlook we are communicating for 2018 and the way we intend to sustain our progress in the coming year and beyond. Oxford's fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 delivered a solid return for our shareholders. We achieved topline growth of 12% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017 and adjusted EPS of $0.93 per share compared to $0.63 in the fourth quarter of last year. These strong fourth-quarter results contributed to a very successful year for Oxford. For the full year, net sales grew by 6% to $1.086 billion, including a 3% comp store sales increase. Adjusted operating income grew by 9% and adjusted EPS grew 11% to $3.66 per share. For the year, our direct to consumer business – comprised of our bricks and mortar stores and restaurants, as well as business done through our e-commerce websites – accounted for two-thirds of our total revenue. During fiscal 2017, we were particularly focused on playing to our strength in e-commerce and mobile and our enterprise-wide e-commerce business grew 11% to $205 million. Our e-commerce business now constitutes 19% of our total revenue. During the year, we made significant progress…

Scott Grassmyer

Management

Thanks, Tom. Tom covered the high points of our financial results for 2017 and I'll just touch for a moment on our balance sheet and capital structure. Our balance sheet remains strong and we have a capital structure well positioned to support growth. Improved inventory turns at Tommy Bahama, Southern Tide and Lanier Apparel resulted in inventory reductions year-over-year. Inventories decreased to $127 million at the end of fiscal 2017 compared to $142 million at the end of fiscal 2016. At February 3rd, 2018, we had $46 million of borrowings outstanding and $220 million of availability under our revolving credit agreement. Cash flow from operations continued to be strong at $119 million and free cash flow was $80 million. I'd now like to walk you through our projections for 2018. For the full 2018 fiscal year, adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $4.40 and $4.60 on sales in the range of $1.12 billion to $1.14 billion. In fiscal 2017, which was a 53-week year, sales were $1.086 billion and adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $3.66. Our interest expense is expected to be approximately $3 million and our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 26%. For the first quarter of fiscal 2018, we currently expect net sales between $265 million to $275 million. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations are expected to be between $1.15 and $1.25. On a comparable basis, sales were $272 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 and adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $1.12. As we look at how the year lays out, our first quarter operating income will be negatively impacted by the combination of wholesale sales reductions and increased marketing spend. The reduction in wholesale sales in fiscal 2018 falls disproportionately in the first quarter. Our…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Edward Yruma with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Edward Yruma

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, guys. And thanks for taking my question. I guess, first, on the e-commerce replatforming, I know you talked about IT investment in the first quarter. I guess, how should we think about how to model in any potential disruption, when does the go-live happen? And perhaps, more importantly, what is your objective in replatforming and how will that enable kind of stronger growth in the e-commerce business?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

First of all, with respect to any disruption in the business, obviously, our plan is to try to avoid disruption in the business, partially by timing the transition to a period that's maybe slightly slower than some other times during the year. And then, secondly, just by very, very careful planning and execution. So, hopefully, we won't see a lot of disruption there. Then in terms what we're trying to accomplish there, the sort of catchall phrase of it is that we're trying to enhance the consumer experience. There are things that we're doing that are designed really to make the website easier for us to use and to merchandise, to deliver that experience to the consumer. And then, on the consumer side, there are things that hopefully will make it more usable and shoppable for them. There are both good websites already. So, it's not like we're going from dysfunctional to functional. It's just trying to enhance the functionality of those websites.

Scott Grassmyer

Management

We replatformed Tommy Bahama a couple of years ago and it was a very smooth transition and we didn't have interruptions and we think the same will be for Lilly and Southern Tide.

Edward Yruma

Analyst

Great. And one follow-up, if I may. I know you've been very strategic in lowering department store exposure across the enterprise. And it does sound like you're going to kind of reduce door count, particularly at Tommy Bahama. How should we think about the doors that you're exiting at this point? Is it kind of still one-off? Are you exiting specific chains? And then, I guess, kind of the offset, is there an opportunity to grow in specialty doors or in resort locations? Thanks a lot.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Yeah. I think, Ed, I would characterize it as being more one-off and door specific as opposed to wholesale exits of entire chains. So, really, just looking at all the doors that we're in and evaluating whether it's performing – whether the business is performing well for them. And where it's not, pulling back. As we said, we want to have fine situations and we're always looking for them where we can be successful and the department store can be successful and we can present the brand in a way that's consistent with our standards for presenting and merchandising the brand. In terms of growth opportunities, we do think there are some opportunities in some parts of the specialty world, as well as the resort world. Those are probably not quite as big as some of the department store businesses. So, the net ends up being some reduction in the wholesale.

Edward Yruma

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much, guys.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thanks, Ed.

Operator

Operator

Moving on to Susan Anderson with B. Riley FBR.

Susan Anderson

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Nice job on the quarter, you guys.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thank you.

Susan Anderson

Analyst

I guess, just to follow up on the wholesale question, where do you guys think we're kind of at in the cycle of rationalization there? Would you guys expect more pressure over the next 2 to 3 years? Do you think that we've kind of – we're starting to hit a bottom there or do you think there's kind of more to come?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

It's hard to say. Look, Susan, we're not looking to exit businesses. It's just that we want to be prepared to do it if we need it. I think there are some signs that maybe that world is beginning to stabilize a bit. And we certainly would love to see that be the case. But I think we've got to be prepared for sort of either eventuality. And for 2018, there's still a little bit of downward pressure there.

Susan Anderson

Analyst

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And then, just one last one, really quick, on the Tommy outlook. I think you guys have said modest sales growth. Maybe I missed it, did you guys talk about the comp growth or is the modest growth more coming from some of the closed doors that you guys are expecting?

Scott Grassmyer

Management

We'll have a pretty modest opening – store opening pace, but we should – we expect to have positive comps at Tommy Bahama. We've got a fairly moderate comp increase plan there and then we'll have some wholesale decrease. So, I think we'll open a few doors, we'll get some positive comp. Our e-commerce business has been very strong, and we should expect it to continue to grow and that's a big focus. But we will have some wholesale decrease also. And we also – remember 2017 was a 53-week year and we've got a 52-week year next year.

Susan Anderson

Analyst

Yeah, got it. Okay, great. Thanks so much, you guys. Good luck next quarter.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thank you, Susan.

Operator

Operator

And next will be Rick Patel with Needham & Company.

Rick Patel

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and congrats on capping the year in a strong way.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thank you, Rick.

Rick Patel

Analyst

As we think about the outlook for Tommy in DTC, how much of your revenue growth in 2018 will come from the flow-through of initiatives in 2017, meaning whether it's price increase or gift card events, et cetera, versus new initiatives that are – it looks like it's going to be focused more on new customer acquisition this year. Just wondering how they balance out.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

I think new customer acquisition is going to be more important. We get a little bit out of some of the price increases, but we kind of – the 53rd week kind of neutralizing that to a certain degree. But I think it's the new initiatives. We're hoping to gain customers. We're spending more marketing and we expect to get some new customers out of it, but we don't how quickly that will happen because the increased marketing spend is more around customer acquisitions, more so than communicating with our existing customer. We'll still do that part, but some of the additional spend is on customer acquisition. So, that is a focus for sure in 2018.

Rick Patel

Analyst

So, on that point, one of the big themes this earnings season has been the need for a lot of companies to invest in data analytics and CRM capabilities. How do you feel about the capabilities you have across each of your brands to leverage analytics in order to be the most impactful that you can be from a marketing perspective?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Well, that's absolutely a focus of a lot of the IT investment that we're doing, is trying to improve our capabilities in those areas. There's certainly a lot that we can do now and that we do now, but we want to be able to do more, so that area – CRM in particular and data analytics are both a big part of what that overall IT investment is. And that's really sort of across the company.

Rick Patel

Analyst

Great. And last one on Southern Tide, I was hoping you could talk about your retail strategy there just given some developments in that concept over the last month. And as we look for double-digit revenue growth, how much of that will be organic, so to speak, versus your new retail strategy?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Well, it's not really a new retail strategy. They had one signature, I believe, when we bought them. They opened two more within 2016 and like four or five last year. And then, as you know, you've read about – got plans for more this year. So, that idea of having to license signature stores has been – that's been part of their strategic plan since before we bought them. In terms of how much of the growth is coming directly from the signature stores versus other avenues, it's going to be a meaningful portion, but not the majority.

Scott Grassmyer

Management

Right, right.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Less than half.

Rick Patel

Analyst

That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Michael Kawamoto with D.A. Davidson.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Hey, guys. I'm on Andrew today. Thanks for taking my question.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Sure.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Just on the Lilly Pulitzer Pottery Barn collaboration, are you expecting an increase in traffic in comps in Lilly stores, similar to what you saw with the Target collaboration. Maybe not to that scale, but has traffic picked up at all in the signature stores or is it too early to tell?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Yes. We definitely got a lift in activity as a result of that collaboration and some of that's still going on. Officially, I guess, it went live about two weeks ago now, I think. Some of the catalogs continue to dribble out and sometimes people don't actually get to their mailbox when the catalog first hits. And so, we're continuing to see benefits from that to this day. I think the way you characterized it, Michael, is perfect. It's similar to the target effect that we saw, not the same scale, but still a – just a terrific win-win sort of marketing event for us. And I think it's been good for Pottery Barn as well, which is important to us. We want them, as our partner, to be successful as well. From everything we're hearing from them, it's been quite good for them as well.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Awesome, thanks. And then, just on the outlet business for Tommy, you spent a lot of time improving merchandising. It sounds like it's resonating pretty well. What are your expectations for the outlets in 2018?

Scott Grassmyer

Management

Continued gross margin expansion. Even if the comps aren't up significantly, we think the gross margin expansion will make those more profitable than they were. And we're keeping balance with – moving inventory we need to move where in the past we weren't quite moving what we need to move. We now are able to keep up.

Michael Kawamoto

Analyst · D.A. Davidson.

Awesome. Thanks, guys.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thanks a lot, Michael.

Operator

Operator

And next will be Pam Quintiliano with SunTrust.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Hi, Pam.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

Hi. Thanks much for taking my questions. And let me add my congratulations on the execution not only in the quarter, but the year as well.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thank you.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

So, first question, can you just give us an update on how Hawaii and Asia are doing for Tommy Bahama?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Yeah, Hawaii is good right now. It's strong. I think the tourism stats are good there. And we're seeing it in our business. We're pleased with the way that Hawaii is going right now, as we talked about. Of course, Tommy is already there in a big way and we're going to be opening a Lilly Pulitzer store there in Whaler's Village on Maui where Tommy has had a great store for a long time. And that will be Lilly's first store in Hawaii. So, very excited about Hawaii right now. And with regard to Asia, it's sort of more the same story that you've been hearing from us over the last couple of years. We're very focused on growing and running well the business that we have in Australia and we continue to be pleased with that. And then, in the China and Hong Kong market, that's now licensed, and that license business is slowly growing and moving forward, not material to the enterprise at all, but it is moving forward. And then, in the remaining Asia business, we're continuing to cut the loss and look for opportunities to maybe find a partner to help us out in some of that business. And I think – Scott, what's our – the loss will come down.

Scott Grassmyer

Management

It should come down by at least $2 million in 2018 and we did some similar in 2017. So, the loss is whittling down. There's still a loss there, but it's certainly coming down.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

Great. And then, if I could just ask, I know you mentioned the Marlin bar. In 1Q, opening the location. But how should we think about annual plans for Marlin bar and are there any going to any restaurant retail combo locations opening this year?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Well, that Palm Springs Marlin Bar will have a retail store with it as well. And it'll be – it's maybe sort of halfway between a regular restaurant in the Marlin bar that's in Coconut Point, Florida, which is the first one that we did, but there will be a retail store there. And then, we continue to look for additional locations that would build upon that Marlin Bar concept. I don't think we have anything to announce.

Scott Grassmyer

Management

Nothing to announce. Yeah. But we're looking at several potential locations.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

And then, my last question, and forgive me if I missed this. I know you commented on Lilly Pulitzer just kind of continuing. Any commentary on Tommy Bahama? And then, if you talk about, holiday overall for retail seemed to be better than a lot had anticipated. How do you think your consumer is feeling right now? Do you think that they're optimistic? Do you think within the realm of the shopping experience that you're talking and maybe department stores are not as intriguing as they once were for the consumer, but you think – when you look at your own store traffic, coming to store more often, more engaged, if you could just give us a little bit more information on that. Thank you.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Well, I think overall – and this is reflected in the holiday sales for us and others. I think the consumer is extremely strong right now. I think they're feeling – whatever their thoughts may be about a variety of world event, they feel quite good about the economy right now and their ability to come out and spend. And our challenge, like every other business, consumer business in the world, is to make sure that we're getting them to us. And as the retail landscape changes, there is – continues to be a decline in mall traffic. People are more focused on buying when they get there. We continue to see conversion rates going up. So, maybe they're less, but they're more intent on actually buying when they are. And our job is to not fight the trends in the market, but to figure out how to play to them to our advantage. And I think we did that successfully in 2017, particularly in the fourth quarter. That's why we're able to generate the results that we did. And we think our plans for 2018, including the enhanced marketing spend, which is a pretty big deal. For us, 12 million additional dollars is a lot. And we think we're focused on the right things to continue to drive profitable growth.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

Understood. Quarter-to-date, any commentary?

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Yes. We're pleased with what we've seen quarter-to-date. Overall, we got positive comps. It's a bit stronger in Lilly than in Tommy right now, but we're expecting a big month in April in Tommy. And we feel good about our plan there. April is a big month for Tommy typically.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

Excellent. Well, best of luck. Congratulations again.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next will be Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. As you think about the $12 million of additional marketing spend, is this a steady state going forward? And which businesses overall with the marketing do you expect to have the earliest reception to the marketing? And then also, as you think about your gross margins and the buckets of gross margins for each brand, how should we think of 2018, whether it's product cost, whether it's markdown, clearance, how do you think it derives? Thank you.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Okay. That was a lot of questions in one question. We'll start at the top and try to pick them off. I think the increased marketing spend, I would – so, this year, I think, we're projected at 6.2% of sales for the total company, which would be up from about 5.4% for 2017. So, I would expect us to continue to spend at a higher level than we did in 2017 in future years. Whether it will be quite as high as a percentage of sales as it is this year, I don't know. It may come down a little bit next year. And the reason is, Dana, is that a lot of that additional spending is in Tommy Bahama and, frankly, we're doing a bit of testing and experimenting. We're trying some things. Some of them are going to work better than others and that's going to inform our sort of future plans and spending. Some of those things that Tommy is doing I think are going to take a little longer to seed. Some of the things that Lilly has got going, for example, the Pottery Barn initiative, that's not a great example because we actually get paid for that one. It doesn't cost us anything. But it still has almost an immediate effect. The Honda Classic Golf Tournament is maybe a better example because we did spend some money on it, but there's –we had sales actually at the tournament. And there's sort of an immediate payback, hopefully some longer-term burn on that as well. But, hopefully, that helps explain what we're trying to do here. And, again, the big picture, Dana, is that is that marketplace is changing, we want to make sure that we're doing the right things to get the consumers' attention because we know that if they're looking at our brands, they will love what they see, and they'll buy it. But we need to make sure we're getting them looking at our brands.

Scott Grassmyer

Management

On the gross margin, we expect gross margin expansion at Tommy Bahama really in all of their channels and distribution and they will have the impact of direct to consumer being a higher percent of the mix. But we've had some of the initiatives we started last year on input cost reductions and some price increases that should help. We also have our outlet stores that we were cleaning up last year that are going to have healthier margins. In Lilly, their margins should hold. They've always had good gross margins and we think they'll hold well.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Did we miss anything?

Dana Telsey

Analyst

No, you got it.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Tom Chubb for any closing or additional remarks.

Thomas Chubb III

Management

Okay, Justin. Thank you again for your time this afternoon. We appreciate your interest and look forward to speaking to you again in June.

Operator

Operator

Well, thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation today.