Stephen Chazen
Analyst · Tudor, Pickering
Thank you, Jim. As we look ahead to the back half of the year, our average oil price is about $95 WTI. We expect the back half of the year in Oil and Gas production to be as follows: Domestic volumes are expect to increase by 3,000 to 4,000 BOE per day for each month compared to the previous month. This should result in average third quarter production of about 430,000 to 432,000 BOE a day; Latin America volume should remain comparable to the second quarter. The Middle East region production is expected as follows: Consistent with the second quarter we expect no production for Libya; in Iraq, we are still unable to reliably predict spending levels, which have related impact in cost recovery barrels; in Oman, production is expected to grow from our current gross production of 210,000 BOE a day to a year-end exit rate of 230,000 BOE a day, which should result in about a net of 2,000 BOE per day for quarter growth; in Qatar, we expect to gradually regain the production rate lost due to planned maintenance and mechanical issues resulting in about 3,000 BOE per day growth rate each quarter in the second half of the year compared to the second quarter average; in Dolphin and Bahrain, production is expected to be similar to second quarter levels; In Yemen, forecasting production volumes remains difficult, although currently Oxy operated production has been partially restored. We expect the range to be between 23,000 and 27,000 BOE a day. We expect the lifting in Iraq in the third quarter of about 600,000 barrels of oil. Including this lifting, we expect sales volume to be about 725,000 BOE a day at $95 West Texas Intermediate. A $5 increase in West Texas Intermediate would reduce our production sharing contract daily volumes by about 3,500 BOE a day. Our total year capital expenditures remains at $6.8 billion, same as the guidance we gave you last quarter. With regard to prices, at current market prices, a $1 per barrel change in oil prices impacts quarterly earnings before income taxes by about $37 million. Second, the average second quarter WTI oil price is $102.56 per barrel. A $1 per barrel change in NGL prices impacts quarterly earnings before income taxes by $7 million. A swing of $0.50 per million BTUs in domestic gas prices has a $34 million impact on quarterly earnings before income taxes. The current NYMEX gas price is around $4.40 per MCF. Additionally, we expect exploration expense to be about $80 million for seismic and drilling for our exploration programs in the third quarter. The Chemical segment earnings is expected to moderate to about $225 million, mostly due to seasonal factors. The third quarter segment -- Chemical segment earnings are expected to reflect continued strong export demand and overall good supply and demand balances across most products, offset by some seasonal factors and turnarounds. Historically, the fourth quarter is typically the weakest quarter and generally earnings are about half of that in the third quarter. We expect our combined worldwide tax rate in the third quarter of 2011 to remain in about 38%. As far as our activity is concerned, in California we expect our current drilling programs to result in more predictable production growth going forward. The status of permitting is generally unchanged from the prior quarter. We've obtained enough permits to allow us to prosecute the program at the current pace until year end. However, there remains some uncertainty around future permits, particularly related to injection wells. Our overall rig count in the United States has gone from 38 at the end of 2010 to our current rate of 59. This is expected to grow to 74 at the end of the year. This will represent a 25% growth in our total rig count's current levels. The growth will be in the Permian, the Williston Basin and South Texas. This program leads to continued growth of production into next year. I think we're ready to take your questions now.