Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Occidental Petroleum Corporation Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Degner. Please go ahead.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 28, 2015
$60.37
-0.71%
Same-Day
+0.43%
1 Week
+2.64%
1 Month
+2.41%
vs S&P
+2.54%
Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Occidental Petroleum Corporation Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Degner. Please go ahead.
Christopher M. Degner - Senior Director, Investor Relations
Management
Thank you, Emily. Good morning everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental Petroleum's third quarter 2015 conference call. On the call with us today are Steve Chazen, Oxy's President and Chief Executive Officer; Vicki Hollub, Senior Executive Vice President of Occidental and President, Oxy Oil and Gas; Sandy Lowe, Executive Vice President and President of Oxy Oil and Gas International; and Chris Stavros, Chief Financial Officer. In just a moment I will turn the call over to Vicki Hollub. As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Additional information on factors that could cause results to differ is available on the company's most recent Form 10-K. Our third quarter 2015 earnings press release, the investor relations supplemental schedules, our non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations and the conference call presentation slides can be downloaded off our website at www.oxy.com. I'll now turn the call over to Vicki Hollub. Vicki, please go ahead.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Thank you, Chris. Good morning everyone. Despite the current environmental of low and volatile product prices, our Oil and Gas segment has been operating well in all of our core assets. Our third quarter average daily production increased to 689,000 BOE per day from last year's 595,000 BOE per day, an increase of 16%. Our core assets continue to drive production growth with an increase of 39,000 BOE per day from Permian Resources and 50,000 BOE per day from Al Hosn, which reached full capacity in September. We expect Al Hosn to produce 60,000 BOE per day in the fourth quarter. Our capital and operating costs have continued to decline as we've focused our development program and curtailed activity where current product prices do not support further investment. We continue to make progress to optimize our portfolio as a part of the company's strategic review to focus on our core assets in the Permian Basin and the Middle East. We're selling our assets in the Williston Basin and continue to evaluate our positions in non-core assets in the Middle East with the objective of minimizing our activity and exposure. Construction of the ethylene cracker has progressed well and is on schedule to start up in early 2017. Our principal goal this year is to adjust our business to the current environment of low commodity prices. We're targeting our operating cash flow to cover our dividend and capital investment at realized oil prices of $60 per barrel while continuing to grow our production. We'll achieve this goal through deploying our capital and operating cost savings and to further production and cash flow growth driven mostly by our Permian Resources business unit and the start-up of Al Hosn. While we don't believe current price levels are sustainable over the long term, we've…
Christopher M. Degner - Senior Director, Investor Relations
Operator
Thank you, Chris. And Emily, could you please open up the line for questions?
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our first question is from Evan Calio of Morgan Stanley please go ahead. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey, good morning guys. Your Permian Resources production again beat guidance. You're making progress on costs, efficiencies and you highlighted it as your top priority in your slides, but it's also one of the pieces your of portfolio where you can dial activity up and down. Can you talk about how you balance those factors when you're considering your 2016 Permian activity levels in the current environment?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Yes, Evan. As Chris said that our committed capital is coming down but we still do have some committed capital in 2016. So what we'll do is balance our Permian Resources business with the capital requirements elsewhere. As you know, we're trying to reduce our capital requirements in the Middle East and the reason for that is we would prefer to divert – to move capital to Permian Resources. But we do have the ability to swing it up and down. We're working on several scenarios that we could be ready to implement depending on what market prices are in 2016. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Let me follow up there. I mean, when you mention the potential in MENA (27:29) non-core asset sales, does that imply that the larger interest sell down remains back burnered? And on your G&A guidance, does that – that these announced assets are sold as well?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
You're talking about the Middle East? Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yeah, in the MENA. Sorry.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Currently we're looking at certainly exiting some of the non-core properties in the Middle East and ramping down activities in some of those areas that we're not going to exit. So that will certainly impact some of our SG&A cost. We expect those to go down as well as some of our operating cost. So that will be a benefit to us. And getting back to the resources question that you had previously, we do expect to, in all of the scenarios that we're looking at, to continue to grow production from our Permian Resources business. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Right. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now on the G&A question, this is Steve. The answer to your question is no. We really haven't baked in the Middle East situation with the decline. So basically what we see now is – this is what we've said for next year's run rate are costs. We expect to continue to work on this as the portfolio changes. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Right. And the non-core – but by focusing on the non-core sales in MENA, I guess I'm saying does that also imply that the larger interest sell-down in that piece of the portfolio remains back burnered given the current environment. Is that fair? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the countries have gone from being flush with cash to being cash users just to fund their own situation. So it's not likely that they're in the mood to – basically they're selling things. They're not buying things right now. Evan Calio - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Right. And maybe if I could ask one more question, Steve. Can you discuss what drove…
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Doug Leggate of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Doug Leggate - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Thanks. Good morning everybody. On the Middle East folks, the non-core areas that you're talking about, I'm trying to reconcile the $60 breakeven number with exiting some of these non-core areas. And I guess my question is, are these areas currently negative free cash flow, and if so, could you quantify what you think the delta would be in the event of an exit and if that's already assumed in your $60 breakeven assumption? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: $60 is just a cartoon. This is basically based on our current situation. The businesses are not cash flow positive. Christopher G. Stavros - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Doug, we showed you on the slide that I pointed out, slide 21, that under various oil price scenarios, a higher oil price scenario of last year or lower prices this year, we're still running the combination of those assets are still running a sizable cash deficit after capital. So yeah, you were sort of at higher capital in a higher price environment, but still you weren't generating enough money to really see a free cash flow positive event. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So we haven't gone back and recomputed what exactly the breakeven would be. So we don't really know whether it's $55 or $60. Doug Leggate - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Okay. So maybe I could just slip in a macro question there. Could you update us on what you're doing in Iraq currently? Because obviously your partner, our understanding is the Iraqis are asking folks to slow down investment. So what are you actually seeing on your asset? And I've got a more Oxy-specific follow-up please. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sandy can answer that I think.
Edward A. Lowe - Vice President and President, Oil and Gas International Production
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The Iraqis have asked us to slow down investment. And the infrastructure investment that we need to really take advantage of these fields that is the responsibility of the government has not taken place. So the production is just trucking along at a fairly stable amount. But not anything that would excite us. Doug Leggate - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Okay. Thanks. And my final one if I may is, again I want to go back to this $60 breakeven, Steve, because if you look at this current quarter, obviously you're still burning through a fair amount of cash, and the oil price clearly is not $60. It's substantially below that. Although that's not our base case, what would you do in the event that you have another year of sub-$50 oil because that would imply you basically burn through all your cash at this rate? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't think we'd burn through all the cash. Maybe we have a different model. But anyway, if you run through all the numbers, I think we'd look at it at the time. But as we cut back on the non-core assets, more cash will be generated. And so you could drill fewer wells in the Permian if that were necessary. We're not counting on - Doug Leggate - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: You'd basically slow things down. Right. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, we would bring the capital down lower. There's more savings as we go and so we're not exactly sure where we are in this process. So I think as we go through this next year, the large, the cracker basically ends at the end of this next year. The spending on that ends. Some of the stuff in the midstream ends at the end of next year. Al Hosn will be, all the capital will be spent. There's a little bit of capital in the beginning of the year for crew quarters as I recall. And so when now all that ends, the capital will naturally decline and the production goes up. So whether it's $60 or $55, we don't really know right now. But we would expect as we go into 2017 clearly that the capital program would be significantly less than – could be significantly less than next year even. Doug Leggate - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Got it. I'll let someone else jump on. Thanks, everybody. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Phil Gresh of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Yeah, hey. Good morning. Just first question just on the CapEx side. How would you think about what sustaining capital requirements there are today given all the productivity that you've been seeing in the Permian? And how did that relate to the $60 breakeven for dividend coverage as you move forward? I would assume that that's generally underlying your seeing some improvement there, but any color you could provide would be helpful.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Yeah, Phil, we're continuing to see improvements in the Permian Resources business. And as we've just said and said previously, our Resources businesses are swing business with respect to capital, we can, we have the ability to ramp up and ramp down. But we do see a scenario if oil prices improve a little bit for us to be able to continue to grow Resources and to manage some of the capital spend and in international down so that we could be cash flow neutral and grow Resources slightly in 2016. And part of that's due to the fact that we're continuing to see improvements in our drilling and completion operations. And if you look at kind of the targets that, if you go back and look at our Q1 targets for our drilling and completion activity in Permian Resources, we've actually adjusted our targets a couple of times because our teams keep outperforming and beating our previous targets and setting new best rates. So currently two of the things that we're dealing with in terms of uncertainties is how much better can we get, and also what will prices be. So we're running both of those scenarios and we think we have opportunity to continue to improve.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Okay. Follow-up question just on the midstream business. In this lower for longer type of environment, how would you think about the earnings power of that business? I know it's volatile quarter to quarter, but if you think maybe on an annualized basis and you obviously have a couple of different sub-businesses within that. But any thoughts you have there would be helpful. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's a difficult business to estimate. It's hodgepodge of different businesses. It's got a power business. It's got a standard transmission business. It also holds the capacity to ship oil out of the Permian. And right now there's more excess capacity in the basin to ship oil because people assume that oil would, the production would go up and it's clearly not for the industry. So we're paying demand charges essentially for that. And that's what's eating into the profitability. So it's really a difficult number to quantify because you have to really have an idea about these demand charges and what's going to happen with that. It has a probably underlying earning power in the $300 million or so area. But there's a lot of volatility on these demand charges.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Sure. And is that $300 million including the benefits we'll get from sulfur at Al Hosn? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Probably not. Probably not going to include it.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Okay. Last question though for me. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sulfur at Al Hosn is also, is makes predicting oil prices easy. I mean the price of sulfur can move $50 a ton overnight.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Sure. Understood. Last question. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Especially if there's a lot of tons.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
On the Middle East you had a significant reduction in the cash operating costs in the third quarter. Any color on the big drivers and the sustainability of that?
Edward A. Lowe - Vice President and President, Oil and Gas International Production
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
We've had a cost improvement program going for a long time. And we have recently been able to make some breakthroughs on that with various vendors and it's just focusing on it. And same as in the Permian. Everybody in the company's focused on more profit per barrel and less cost per barrel. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think to be – I mean the way the accounting works in the Middle East on a production sharing contract, the company always bears all of the cost, all of the operating costs. So when oil prices are high, you get fewer barrels to cover that operating cost.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Sure. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And higher, and lower oil prices you've got a lot more barrels to cover the exact same operating cost even if they don't change. So I mean that's -
Edward A. Lowe - Vice President and President, Oil and Gas International Production
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
It's a combination. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, it's a little different than comparing to the US or something like that because you always have all of the, 100% of the operating costs essentially there. And so whether you produce 10,000 barrels a day or 20 net, operating cost is the same.
Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Right. Okay, all right. Thanks a lot.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Tim Rezvan of Sterne, Agee CRT. Please go ahead.
Timothy A. Rezvan - CRT Capital Group LLC
Analyst · Sterne, Agee CRT. Please go ahead
Hi. Good morning folks. First question I guess was on the US cash OpEx numbers that you reported in the third quarter, kind of flattish from 2Q. I know that you've had some big improvements early in the year. I guess you've talked qualitatively about bringing that down more, but maybe can you talk about what happened in the third quarter and kind of how we should think about the trajectory of that into 2016?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Yes. We've continued to improve our operating costs and basically we're focusing on the OpEx in Permian Resources and Permian EOR because in Williston we had some high OpEx there just because of the fact that our production was lower. But in the Permian, what we're doing is, we see the biggest opportunities in our Resources business where initially we had difficulty pumping from the deeper unconventional wells. We were trying to use either ESPs or beam pumps. With both of those there were issues because of the depth of those wells and the initial very high volumes that then becomes lower volume pretty quickly in the life of the well. So now we've gotten to a point where we understand that better. We're addressing that better. We're actually ensuring that we installed a lift that's the right kind of lift for the full life cycle of the well so that we don't have high initial repair costs. So that's part of what's driving down our OpEx in the US. In Permian EOR, those guys are continuing to optimize what they do with respect to well maintenance. They have a lot more wells over there. So they've been able to reduce quarter over quarter the cost per barrel in the EOR business by improving the well service rig performance, and improving how they deal with replacement of pumps and things like that, the materials they use and what they're doing there to extend the life of the wells. So we do expect continued improvement in both of those business units. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I think the short answer is that the Williston operating costs went up and it dragged the average up.
Timothy A. Rezvan - CRT Capital Group LLC
Analyst · Sterne, Agee CRT. Please go ahead
Okay. Okay. I appreciate that comprehensive answer. Next question I guess on the repurchase program. Your average shares outstanding were down 3.3 million. You only spent $50 million in the third quarter. So I guess that's a factor, the timing of your 2Q activities. Should we expect in a $50 or sub-$50 oil environment that you will kind of run at a much lower pace on the repurchases? Or I guess what's your philosophy on that? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, if I had more confident in the oil price, we'd be more aggressive in the share repurchase. At this point it depends on two things; sort of a calculation of what's in the stock which is favorable to repurchase; and how fearful we are about the volatility in the oil price. So I think the fear overcame the calculation this past quarter. We keep on reading these analyst reports so that generates enormous fear.
Timothy A. Rezvan - CRT Capital Group LLC
Analyst · Sterne, Agee CRT. Please go ahead
I appreciate that commentary. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Edward Westlake of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): You clearly shouldn't read analyst reports. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Clearly. I just read the headlines. Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. No worries. Question on the Middle East. I mean you talk about ramping down activities, maybe non-core asset sales. I mean of the countries that you list there, Bahrain looks like one which might have a buyer in the sense of the production as opposed to those other countries. Is that what you're talking about? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Selling assets or just reducing activity? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Just reducing activity I think is the way to say it. There's a significant amount of, call them receivables or whatever you want to call it, where we produce the oil and gas but haven't been paid in some of these places. And basically you're effectively building up a liability over time and basically we can't afford to do that currently. And so we'll reduce the activity until we can catch up with that accrual if you will. It doesn't show up on a balance sheet. It's simply the difference between production and liftings. Edward George Westlake - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): And then on Block 9 you said on the last call, we'll look for a contract extension that's as least as good as what we could get back in the Permian. Any progress on how the other side of the table view that? Stephen I. Chazen - President,…
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Jason Gammel of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Jason D. Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Yes. Thanks very much. I was hoping to just get a little more understanding on what led to the write-down on Iraq. Because my understanding was that it was an acceptable place to invest because you never really had a lot of capital exposed. And if you're reducing investment activity even more and you're still lifting oil, does that imply that you got into a situation of a big arrears with the government that you don't think you'll actually ever be able to get paid back? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's clearly – I really don't want to get into a discussion about the contract terms there, except to say that in theory, you got your money back on a small profit pretty much as you spent the money, maybe a quarter or two off. And that really – and that hasn't exactly happened.
Jason D. Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Okay. I think that's a fair enough explanation. I think I get what's going on there. Now, at the risk of picking nits here, the Permian Resource production overall in the quarter, obviously very good, but it did seem to be a little more swung towards NGLs and gas and away from oil than what I would have normally expected. Vicki talked about moving to pad drilling and making it a more manufacturing process which makes it more lumpy. Is that the explanation for that or is there something else going on?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
In addition to the pad drilling, we were able to capture some stranded gas in the last quarter and we were able to put that online and through processing and that's what drove some of that.
Jason D. Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
So should we still think about this as 5,000 barrels a day of oil growth out of Permian Resources on a move forward basis with recognizing there could be variation from quarter to quarter?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
There's going be lumpy production. So it could vary from quarter to quarter, but in terms of the differential with the gas with respect to oil this time, it was again – it was due to a one-time event to get some gas production on that we didn't previously have on. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, as you reduce the capital, have fewer rigs, the effect of this lumpiness is more obvious because you got these rigs working in one place and if you're in five places, well it sort of averages out. But as you reduce the number of rigs at work, the effect of the lumpiness from a quarter to quarter basis is a lot more obvious. So you might expect some more. You'll be able to see it in a normal environment. With a somewhat higher rig count, you wouldn't see it really. It would just smooth out.
Jason D. Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Yeah, okay. That makes sense to me. Okay. Thanks very much, folks. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from John Herrlin of Société Générale. Please go ahead.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC
Analyst
Yeah, thanks. With respect to the Permian Resources unit, can you describe what you're doing in terms of the well completions that are different, or are you doing anything materially different than your peer group?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
On the well completions, we've continued to try to find the exact mix of when to use slick water, when to use hybrid fluid systems and also what the cluster spacing should be, what the volume of the proppant should be. So what we've done is we've experimented a little bit trying to ensure that we get all of that optimized. And some of that we have enough data that we can optimize it and we know what to do. For example in cluster spacing, we can take the pressures that we see during the frac jobs and kind of get to a point where we know what that should be for a given area. So it's still really the proppant size and the fluid volumes and fluid types that we're experimenting with. We did some experimentation with using some of the sleeves and things like that versus plug and perf. And we found that while the sleeves are somewhat effective in being able to isolate and frac, they're not as good when we try to flow the wells back because the sleeves actually cause variations in the flow back which drops out proppant, causes cleanup issues later. So we're moving more toward now ensuring that what we do is we'll have optimum impact on not just recovery but the life of the well. So I think it's just still experimenting with those things that others do. We're waiting for our seismic. We should be done acquiring that in the Barilla Draw area soon, and we'll be processing that. And we hope that will lead to actual more improvements next year.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC
Analyst
Great. Thanks. With your EOR operations in the Permian, at current prices how much free cash flow are you generating from that?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
At current prices, I can tell you, I can give you what we were generating. We were generating a couple of billion dollars when prices were in the $90 environment.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC
Analyst
Okay.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Probably about - Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: About a margin, Chris. Christopher G. Stavros - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Probably cash margins of about $20 a barrel or so.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC
Analyst
Okay. That's great. Last one for me. You took a big impairment on gas. Did you really kitchen sink it in terms of pricing? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We hope so.
John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC
Analyst
Okay. Thanks, Steve.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Jeffrey Campbell of Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead
Good morning. My first question is a quick macro question. Steve, as you are doing your business in the Middle East, are you seeing any tangible signs of stress or second thoughts regarding OPEC's current production strategy by any of the countries in the region? Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: If they had stress, they wouldn't share it with us. I think that's fair to say. What you do see of course is a lot of talk about raising money and that sort of thing. So if you want to view that as stress, you can. But they all say that they're aligned, whatever that means.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead
Okay. Thank you. You provided helpful color on non-core asset sales in MENA. As you continue to high grade your portfolio, how do you think about Colombia. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Vicki can answer that.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
In Colombia, we recently signed an agreement with the government to implement a couple more water floods in Colombia. We see that as our asset there is the opportunity to continue to maintain our production. We'd like at some point to be able to grow the production a little bit. But currently we have a great relationship with the government and with Ecopetrol. We have a team down there that's incredibly efficient and knows the area very well. And our operating teams are very good there. So we see it as a place that, we've been there for over 30 year, would like to continue to be there another 30 years. The country itself has some opportunities outside of what we currently have. And certainly, any opportunity that comes up in Colombia is something we'd want to take a look at.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead
Okay. Great. And my last question is thinking about Permian capital allocation, with the results that you showed in East Midland, is it possible that capital in the Midland Basin can increase relative to the Delaware in 2016?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Currently, we were thinking that we would move more activity to the Delaware Basin. But you're right. Our Midland Basin team has been performing so well, and especially with this Big Spring area in Howard County, the performance there and in Merchant is getting to the point where those wells are really becoming very competitive with what we're doing in the Delaware.
Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.
Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. Wanted to dig in a little bit on the broader Delaware and Midland Basin well performance to understand whether the strong wells you highlight here on slides 13 and 15 are trending relative to your broader acreage and drilling program and whether they're reflective of what we should expect going forward. I'm not sure if it's apples-to-apples, but if we look at the BOE a day per thousand feet of lateral you have for the 2015 averages, they both, on slides 13 and 15, appear to be below what was reported for the first half in the second quarter presentation. And so what I'm trying to get to is whether the specific wells you're highlighting here with much better rates are reflective of the wells we should expect going forward for specific portions of your acreage, whether they're good averages we should assume for your broader acreage or they're highlights of your best wells.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
I think the 2015 average is not exactly representative of what we'll see going forward, but it's indicative of a trend that we'll see. What you're talking about, the trend downward was certainly impacted by the Peck State and the Buzzard State because initially we had incredible rates from the Peck State. It was about 2,400 BOE per day, 24-hour rate for the Peck State. About over 2,000 barrels a day for the Buzzard State. Those wells were two of our best wells in the Delaware Basin. What we're trying to do and the reason we're still, and in answer to John's question, the reason I said we're still trying to tweak things and work things is that we feel like we should have the ability to continue to increase our performance per well. And we're still, we think that with the seismic, we'll be able to figure out what made the Peck State and the Buzzard State so good. And then we'll target trying to hit either the interval that was so good in there or the area, or types of areas like that. And so that's exactly the reason for the seismic is to try to determine whether their reservoir, whether there are areas that are driven by reservoir quality or characteristics that we can move toward in our development program toward the end of 2016. Because by the time we have the seismic processed and evaluated, it would not start impacting the program until the end of next year. But that's exactly what it's designed to do, is look for whether or not those wells were in a particular area that's limited, or whether it's broader and we just aren't getting the chemistry of the frac jobs right or the location within the interval. That's not to say we're not having great wells. We're having great wells, but we do want to continue to improve them. We'd love to see more of those types. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: That's very helpful. And my follow-up is also on slide 13 where you have the nice map of your focus acreage. Can you just refresh us on how many acres that focus area represents and what it would take and any plans to turn some of the other acreage we see there of Oxy's into focus acreage?
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
Well, we have as you know 1.5 million net acres in the unconventional business and our inventory of wells really, the appraisal wells that we've shown you, that 8,300 well inventory was really based on an appraisal of about half of that. And then our development areas, we're trying to keep at an even lower acreage percentage than that because what we're trying to do is ensure that we completely build out as we build our infrastructure. So probably the Barilla Draw area represents an acreage, at least what we're really concentrating on developing, probably two or three pods that would total up to be about 40,000 or 50,000 in the Delaware Basin. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Guy Baber of Simmons. Please go ahead. Guy Allen Baber - Simmons & Company International: Thank you all for fitting me in here. I had a follow-up question on some of the earlier questions around capital spending flexibility into 2016. And I apologize if I missed this earlier, but can you just help us understand the amount of capital spending currently being dedicated to the portion of your MENA program that you deem as non-core? Just trying to understand the opportunity set for the potential spending reductions there that you might be pursuing.
Vicki A. Hollub - Senior Executive Vice President and President, Oxy Oil and Gas
Management
It's $400 million, $400 million. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think it's $400 million. Guy Allen Baber - Simmons & Company International: Okay. Thanks. And then Al Hosn ramping up faster than expected on the production front. Can you discuss that outperformance? And then also can you address the contributions during the quarter from a cash flow perspective? And really trying to understand the timing of the cash flow contributions there and what the peak cash flow contributions are in this environment. Obviously it's difficult to predict given the sulfur exposure and the less transparency on some of the pricing. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I think the cash has normal settlement with it. So the production is actually doing pretty much the way it's said. I mean the 60,000 is what we talked about. Cash flow before capital settles like others and so it was a little back end loaded in the third quarter. So there was less of it in the third quarter than we'll see in the fourth quarter. There's some capital that needs to be spent in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter for some things which we'll use some of the money. The business just depends on really oil prices, the volatility in the business. So I think we're talking about $300 million of free cash. And then it could be as much as $1 billion depending on oil prices sort of in the $70s. Guy Allen Baber - Simmons & Company International: Okay, great. That's helpful, Steve. And then last one for me. You mentioned exiting 2015 with Permian Resources production of around 120,000 barrels a day. So on over $2 billion of CapEx this year, you're obviously growing that business very significantly. Do you have an estimate of the level of spending that could hold that 120,000 flat through next year? Just trying to understand how that compares to the $2 billion plus you're spending this year that's driving considerable growth. Stephen I. Chazen - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're now discussing among ourselves as to what that number might be. So under $1 billion I think. But we don't know whether it's $700 million or $800 million or $900 million. Because things keep getting better, that's why we're slow in giving you these answers because we just don't know, and we don't want to mislead you. Guy Allen Baber - Simmons & Company International: Got it, understood. Thanks.
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session today. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Degner for any closing remarks.
Christopher M. Degner - Senior Director, Investor Relations
Operator
Thank you, Emily, and thanks to everyone for participating. Have a great day.
Operator
Operator
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.