Greg L. Armstrong - Plains GP Holdings LP
Management
Yeah. I mean, let me just – we're not in the business of forecasting oil prices. What we have to do sometimes is make assumptions, for example, when we're trying to figure out what can producers support out of cash flow. And that's what we did at the beginning of the year where we had our $35, $45, I think we had $55 and $60 by a quarter. As we sit here today, I mean, John, you can't associate it with anything more than just plain dumb luck, but our damn numbers have been right on top on the price. The problem is that the activity levels that, that level of cash flow will support are significantly lower. So I think our view is inventory's still we're at very, very high level. I think we're over 540 million barrels right now, which our outlook would tell you – and we will talk more about this at the Analyst Day. With that, we probably don't cross under the same level of inventory that we had in 2015 until end of the third quarter, late fourth quarter. And so what happens is we'll be below 2015 inventory levels. That'd be a pretty significant psychological barrier to break. Having said that, when we break through that, we'll still be roughly 60 million barrels above what's normal so there's still pressure. So part of the issue is, is when these market starts to front run the solution. I think we're as, probably – and when we're accused of being bullish after having been accused of being bearish for a long time. I don't think we really changed our view that this thing is going to rally pretty hard. It may get worse before it gets better just because of the inventory and we've got to get through the summer. There's a lot of expectations around Doha that didn't come to fruition, but there's other things that happened that offset that. And then we've got the OPEC meeting on June 2, and normally that gets a lot of press. And it doesn't necessarily take a lot of substance for them to put a lot of press out there and talk about it. At the end of the day there is a band of inelasticity somewhere between $30 a barrel and $45 a barrel, that when it moves up or down $5 dollars, the press always has an answer for the reason why? We all look at each other and say, we're not sure what changed from five hours ago. So long way of telling you, I don't think we would change our outlook with any significant calibration. It will be interesting to see how it passes. I mean, again, we were $35, $45, $55 and $60 by quarter, and right now, look, when I walked in here the price was $45. So don't know that I know enough to change anything. <: Okay; that's helpful. That's it for me. Thank you.