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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 16, 2010

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Transcript

Q4 2009 Earnings Call

Management

Executives

Management

Kettina Cordero - Coordinator of Investor Relations Geoffrey A. Burns - President & Chief Executive Officer Steven Busby - Chief Operating Officer Michael Steinmann - Executive Vice President of Geology and Exploration Robert G. Doyle - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Management

Ankush Agarwal – JP Morgan Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams Shey Ylonen - TD Newcrest Mike Jalonen – Bank of America Chris Lichtenheld – UBS David Christie - Scotia Capital Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Operator

Operator

Hello, this is the Chorus call conference operator. Welcome to the Pan American Silver Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2009 Results Conference Call and webcast. (Operator Instructions). I’d now like to turn the conference over to, Mrs. Kettina Cordero, Coordinator - Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mrs. Cordero.

Kettina Cordero

Management

Thank you, operator and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Joining me here today are Geoff Burns, our President and CEO, Steve Busby, our Chief Operating Officer; Michael Steinmann, our Executive Vice President of Geology and Exploration; and Rob Doyle our Chief Financial Officer. I would like to start today’s conference by reminding our listeners that this call cannot be reproduced or retransmitted without our consent. I also point out that certain of these statements and information in this call will constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the company’s current views with respect to future events and are necessarily based upon a number assumption and estimates, that while considered reasonable by the company are inherently subject of significant business, economics, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many factors, both known and unknown, could cause actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and the company has made assumptions and estimates based on our related to many of these factors. We encourage investors to refer to the cautionary language included in our most recent news release dated February 15th, 2010 as well as those factors identified under the caption "Risks related to Pan American’s business" in the company’s most recent Form 40F and AIF. Investors are cautions against attributing undue certainty or reliance on forward-looking statements, and the company does not intend or assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements or information, other than as required by law. With that I will now turn the call to Geoff Burns, President and CEO.

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Thank you Kettina and good morning and welcome ladies and gentlemen to Pan American’s 2009 fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. On our last call in November of last year, I concluded by saying that I was as optimistic as I had ever been about the prospects for Pan American for the balance of 2009 and beyond. It is extremely gratifying to be here with you this morning to talk about our fourth quarter of 2009 and full year’s performance and to know that we have delivered on that optimism. Pan American had an outstanding fourth quarter which helped propel us to the best year in the company’s history as indicated by all our key productions and financial metrics. Here is a quick overview about how 2009 ended. To produce the company record 23 million ounces of silver, buoyed by production from our newest mines, Manantial Espejo in Argentina and San Vicente in Bolivia, our 14th consecutive year of silver production growth. We produced the company record 100,000 ounces of gold. Our consolidated cash cost declined to $5.53 per ounce, of silver well below our previous guidance of just over $6 per ounce. We generated record mine operating earnings of $126 million. Our cash flow from operating activities before non-cash working capital adjustments was a company record, $151.7 million or $1.73 per share. Our metals sales increased to a company record $455 million. We recorded full year net income of $62 million or $0.71 per share, also a company record. And lastly, on the strength of continued successful exploration drilling and with the completed acquisition of Aquiline Resources and it's Navidad silver project, our proven and probable reserves, plus measured and indicated resources climbed to close to 1 billion ounces of silver. 2009 was truly an exceptional year for Pan American Silver. Company records for silver and gold production, company records for earnings and cash flow, two new mines smoothly commissioned and in commercial production and the biggest acquisition in the company's history, which added the largest undeveloped primary silver deposit in the world to our portfolio. As good as 2009 was, the real question is always, what's next? Before I get to that, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve, Michael and Rob who will undoubtedly provide you more detail on the year and fourth quarter we just completed from an operations, exploration and financial perspective. Steve.

Steven Busby

Management

Thank you, Geoff and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very pleased to provide you a discussion of our excellent operations and project accomplishments for both the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2009, as it has been Pan American Silver's best year yet using virtually any measure. I will also include details of our 2010 production and cost guidance for each property as part of my commentary. Starting off in Argentina, we had another incredibly solid, steady state operating quarter at Manantial Espejo where we again produced just over 1 million ounces of silver for the third consecutive quarter, which is a world class achievement given that we are now just celebrating our very first anniversary of production. Manantial also produced 19,533 ounces of gold, which is also very consistent to the average gold production over the previous two quarters before. The cash costs and that of byproduct gold for the fourth quarter was a $0.11 per ounce and is better than our guidance of $2.25 per ounce, thanks to better than planned gold production and price. For the entire year, Manantial Espejo produced just less than 3.8 million ounces of silver and nearly 72,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of negative $0.84 per ounce with the byproduct gold credit. The silver production fell 12% short of our original 4.3 ounce guidance, whereas the gold production exceeded the original 63,700 ounces guidance by 13%, almost entirely due to realizing better than expected gold and less than expected silver grades than predicted by our mineral model. Overall operating cost spending was pretty much inline with our expectation. However, the higher than expected gold production and price led to significant improvements over our original annual cash cost guidance of $2.25 per ounce. For 2010, we are forecasting improvements…

Michael Steinmann

Management

Thank you very much and good morning. 2009 was one of our most successful exploration years ever. We have been very active in our brown field programs that have advanced several new projects. We finalized nearly 99,000 meters of diamond drilling, successfully earning 36.8 million contained ounces of proven and probable silver reserves to our operating mines. As I anticipated during earlier conference calls, the new reserve additions were more than sufficient to replace the 26.6 million contained silver ounces mined during the year. Including the 2009 production, our proven and probable silver reserves increased approximately 5% to 234 million ounces as of December 31st, 2009. Looking at our resources, the additions are even more impressive due to the acquisition of Aquiline Resources last year. The Company's aggregated measured and indicated silver resources increased to 711 million ounces, up from the 82 million ounces we carried at the end of 2008, but inferred silver resources more than doubled to 229 million ounces. I would point out that these resource numbers do not yet include our 55% interest in the La Preciosa joint venture project, which has a resource published by Orko Silver of a 135 million ounces. During each quarterly conference call in 2009 I updated you on the result and advances of our green and brown field exploration programs. These efforts and results are reflected in the 2009 reserve and resource statements, which we finalized as of 31st of December 2009. Details for each operation have been published in our press release on February 11 and are available on our corporate website. No doubt that the most important reserve increase came from La Colorada. You may have seen the exceptional exploration results we published in January from the vertical expansion of the NC2 vein, the primary source of sulfide…

Robert Doyle

Management

Thanks Mike good morning ladies and gentlemen. What a difference a year makes. Our strong financial results in Q4 reflected the combination of a growing production base, a healthy price environment for the metals that we produce, and a clean balance sheet, which all translated into record sales and cash flow, solid earnings and now a dividend for our shareholders. Net income for the fourth quarter was $27.8 million, which equates to $0.31 per share compared to a loss from a year ago of $0.41 and an increase in earnings of 60% from Q3. We reported record sales of a $154.4 million, which was a staggering 234% increase from a year ago on the back of higher quantities of metal sold at much higher prices. Q4 sales were 30% higher than Q3 sales. Our mine operating earnings were a record $57.3 million compared to our mine operating loss from a year ago of $9.9 million and an increase of 65% from Q3. Cash flow generated from operations, before working capital movements was $52.5 million, an improvement from one year ago of $64 million and 21% higher than Q3. With cash flow from operations at record levels and capital expenditure significantly reduced to $5.3 million for the quarter, we banked $41.5 million in cash and short-term investment during the quarter. The record operating cash flow propelled to company's working capital position to record $273.2 million at December 31, 2009. With these excellent results in the fourth quarter it is not surprising that we set some new financial records for the full year as well. Pan American's annual sales in 2009 were a record $454.8 million, an increase of 34% over 2008 sales. Operating cash flow, before changes in non-cash working capital was $151.6 million in 2009. That’s a $51.7 million improvement…

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Thanks Rob. Before I dive into our plans for 2010 and beyond, I’d like to mention another historic event for Pan American. I’m assuming that most of you have seen the other release that we sent out yesterday morning. The Board of Directors approved a semi annual dividend policy and as a consequence we declared the first dividend in the company’s history. While modest at $2.5 per common share, I hope this will be the start of the same trend we have set with our production growth. The Board will determine a specific dates for the amount of future dividends on an ongoing basis. But the policy has been established, and our first dividend will be pay on around March 12 of this year. Pan American has matured to a point where we feel that we can comfortably begin returning cash to our shareholders rewarding them for their continued support on an ongoing basis without compromising our future growth. And now to the future, as you've heard from Steve, in 2010 we're planning to produce 23.4 million ounces of silver, a modest increase from the 23 million we produce last year. We will see full year of at capacity silver production from both Manantial Espejo and San Vicente, which will more than offset the expected production decline from Alamo Dorado. Our gold production is likely to decline to approximately 85,000 ounces due to lower gold rates at Manantial Espejo. However, we are forecasting increase production of zinc, lead and copper in 2010 as San Vicente's base metals production is added to that from our Peruvian operations. We're forecasting higher cash costs of $6.46 per ounce in 2010. Strengthening local currencies, increased wages and energy costs and slightly lower by-product credits are expected to increase our costs in the coming year.…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ankush Agarwal – JP Morgan. Ankush Agarwal – JP Morgan: First question is on the pyrite stockpiles, if I remember correctly the logic behind the suspension was that there was no alternative to the Doe Run smelter and now we see you are forecasting some production in 2010. So does that mean you’re expecting Doe Run to come back or have you found an alternative?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

No, we are expecting the Doe Run smelter to reopen this year, probably sometime or hopefully sometime in the second quarter, so as a consequence of that we’re anticipating resuming shipments of the pyrites to the smelter. No, we do not have an alternate purchaser. Ankush Agarwal – JP Morgan: So could you elaborate a little bit on the progress you're seeing there or --?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

I think they certainly have reached some agreements with the government. That has been previously announced. They've been working not only with their union but the creditors, of which we are one in order to formulate a concrete plan that will allow them to be financed and to reopen. That work is ongoing and we are participating to a certain degree in that and as I said, we believe those are very good possibility, a probability pardon me, that they will reopen in the second quarter of this year. Ankush Agarwal – JP Morgan: Could you please elaborate a little bit more on the thought process behind the dividend policy?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

I think its very straight forward Ankush. As we've outlined, we are starting to be in a position where we are comfortable to start returning dividends or cash to our shareholders. We're generating very significant cash today and we see that continuing going forward and feel comfortable that we can do that and reward our shareholder without at all compromising our future ability to grow the company.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

Just with regards Quiruvilca, that continues to surprise, you read in your comments or somebody's comments indicated that it was originally expected to close towards the latter part of last year, this year we're in for another 1.4 million ounces. What's allowing you to keep, outside of the silver price obviously being where it's at, what's allowing you to keep that open, how long you can keep going for?

Steven Busby

Management

Hi Haytham, Steve Busby here. The big driver there, the base metal prices, the zinc pricing primarily. At the end of 2008 you remember zinc prices fell to $0.53 a pound, type and numbers. And at $0.53 a per Quiruvilca is not a positive cash generator I’ll say that. But at today’s prices, which are plus $0.90, it’s generating a healthy profit for us.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

Okay, so let’s say it prices is going to stay where they are at right now how long do you think keep this thing going for?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Well, one of big drivers is how much development and exploration work we do ahead of us. We think it’s a typical underground mine, it’s been operating 80 years, there is definitely resources out there that, should we choose, we can test and develop and probably continue this for sometime. With what we know today in terms of reserves and resources, I think we got a solid two years ahead of us and it could go one beyond that depending on exploration success.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

So it’s a plan at this point to consider your outlook for zinc and determine whether to start spending money on it again?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Correct.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

Maybe just to clarify on the gold grades. I know you mentioned that at 0.29 grams per ton was the gold grade at Alamo Dorado. Do you recall what your Manantial Espejo gold grade is expected to be?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Yes, we are forecasting 2.86 for Manantial Espejo in 2010.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

Okay, what's the silver grade associated with that?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

225.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

:

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Haytham, we don’t have the exact breakdown on that number off hand. Rob can get back to you with that.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

If you could that will be great. Just more question with regard to CapEx. CapEx of $43.6, you broke down 16.5 for Navidad $9 million at La Preciosa. What are some of the other large components?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Actually the Navidad and La Preciosa, the majority of that will be expensed in 2010 because we are largely, while we're pre-feasibility on both of those assets, so we're going to expense the vast majority of that. The capital expenditure is, I'm going to say, relatively dispersed throughout other operating assets and the biggest thing is, if you recall last year, we did cutback on our capital programs. Typically we run somewhere around a $1 to $1.50 per ounce on average overall assets on our capital replacements sustaining basis. This year we have a little bit of catchup to do, related to tailings dam's expansion in Peru and in Mexico as well as we still have the infamous power line project at Manantial Espejo that we set money aside for, which would be a pretty significant expenditure if we can come to some agreements with the government to actually get that project moving.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

So that would be outside of the 43.6 correct?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

That would be included.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

That would be, okay. Last question, G&A excluding stock base compensation just a forecast for 2010? It was about two half this year in total so that would put to somewhere around 10? That sound reasonable?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Our G&A last year was just little over $12 million. That did include kind of the one time donation to the University of British Columbia as was mentioned. So the G&A being slightly above where we were last year, somewhere around $11 million for 2010. I can't give you the breakdown exclusive of stock base comp at the moment.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

Does that $11 million incorporate stock base comp?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

It does indeed.

Haytham Hodaly - Salman Partners

Analyst

It does, okay perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams.

Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams

Analyst

:

Geoffrey Burns

Management

The exploration dollars, the 15.4 is actually included within the expenditures that were summarized for La Preciosa and Navidad. So, a portion of the $16.5 million at Navidad and a portion of the $9 million of La Preciosa is for exploration and Michael was just outlining some of the total exploration on the green fields programs. But, I think Rob can provide a bit of clarity to the actual breakdown to yourself and any other analysts who are interested.

Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams

Analyst

As it relates to La Preciosa, you talked in your press release about a feasibility study by late 2010 early 2011. Is there anything before that Geoff, in terms of potentially or a preliminary economic assessment study or scoping level at La Preciosa?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Yeah we are going be – I don’t want to time myself too tightly. But yes, we are looking to do a scoping study probably near the middle of this year and at that point we’d have to carefully assess whether we should do, as you call the PEA, and a fileable report that we can disclosure to the investment community and our shareholders.

Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams

Analyst

Is there a resource update pending on La Preciosa? I know the late date of resources was Feb ’09, but maybe in the hands, still of Orko, is it?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Yes, I mean we’re now drilling programs and we’re collecting the data and we’re working the resource model. Again we wouldn't put anything out without a PEA in our hands in terms of a resource update. So, again I would look towards the middle of the year to get both of those bits of information.

Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams

Analyst

And Rob, just to clarify could you give us the after tax amount of your adjusted earnings, those two items again? Thanks.

Robert Doyle

Management

Actually those two items wouldn't be tax effective. So you could just add them to adjusted earnings of $32.2 million or $0.36 for the quarter.

Steven Butler - Canaccord Adams

Analyst

$32.2 million, the one item we read on the release, what was the second item again, a donation to UBC?

Robert Doyle

Management

Correct, for the earth science building, that was a $2.3 million donation.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Shey Ylonen - TD Newcrest.

Shey Ylonen - TD Newcrest

Analyst

Just if you could detail a little bit more as to why cash costs at Manantial Espejo are going up considerably in 2010, or at least you’re forecasting them to?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

The real driver there Shey, is the lower gold production. Where this year we had gold production – gold production this year we ended up 71,900 ounces. Next year we’re only projecting 62,400 ounces. We’re actually showing in the budget a slight reduction in our unit cash cost per ton milled, but because of that lower gold production we don't get the big divisor on the gold credit.

Shey Ylonen - TD Newcrest

Analyst

Okay, I see. And I know you mentioned in the release changes in royalty rates. Can you provide any specifics as to one operation those are applicable to?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

I think its referring to the slight change in the provincial royalty in Manantial Espejo. Originally at the start of 2009 we were subject to a 1.8% basic royalty there and now its been increased to 3% because of the economic conditions of the province in Santa Cruz and Argentina, which is the maximum that the provincial royalty can increase to.

Shey Ylonen - TD Newcrest

Analyst

And are you able to just clarify how much silver was actually sold in the quarter as opposed to being produced?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

We can get back - Rob will get back to you with that number.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Jalonen – Bank of America. Mike Jalonen – Bank of America: I guess I was intruded by your comments, you have explosive growth for 2012 and 13. I'm just wondering what has to happen between now and December 31st, 2011 for this to occur and I assume you mean explosive growth in silver outputs?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

I do indeed Michele. I think the, obviously the two things that are sitting there are the development and construction decisions ahead for both La Preciosa and Navidad. Assuming positive feasibility reports on both by late this year or very early next year and then moving into construction mode, I could see very conceivably, La Preciosa in a position to start producing and maybe third quarter of 2012 followed by Navidad very early in 2013. And you put those two things together with where we are today and I stand by my comment of explosive growth. Obviously there are lot of things that have to line up for all that, all those things to happen. We’re certainly going to work very hard on the items in that list that we control, which is the engineering, the metallurgical work, the resource delineation drilling etc, but we are still constrained as we go forward by what prices it will be at the permanent time we’re making our decisions and what the investment returns look like at that those points of time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Lichtenheld – UBS.

Chris Lichtenheld - UBS

Analyst

Just a quick question on the guidance. The cash flow guidance that you’ve given for 2010, did those also assume that by the second half of this year La Oroya will be back up?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

No, they do not. Pardon me, yes they do. Chris Lichtenheld – UBS: Okay, they do. So worst case scenario, if that persisted through the third quarter, will it at $.30 still to those Peruvian operations would that be fair?

Robert Doyle

Management

That is fair, although in our budget we did assume that when La Oroya does get up and running that we won’t go back to the original Doe Run contract terms that we have. So we assume that kind of a blended term for our concentrates in the second half of 2010. Though I would say somewhere roughly in the middle of that number, so an extra $0.70 or so. Chris Lichtenheld – UBS: And I would also be interested in all that exploration break down if you do send it out.

Robert Doyle

Management

Absolutely.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Your next question comes from David Christie - Scotia Capital.

David Christie - Scotia Capital

Analyst

I'd also like to hear that exploration run down, so if Rob could you e-mail that as well. Just on Manantial Espejo, I was wondering if you give me sort of the grade profile for the next couple years? What's going to happen there as far as gold and silver?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

We're kind of expecting the grades that I reported for 2010 to be sustained over the next several years, 3, 4, 5 years even.

David Christie - Scotia Capital

Analyst

So the production just say sort of flat where it was for 2010 then for next few years?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Correct.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Can you provide some addition clarification on Huaron and increasing production and what the combination of factors are that are causing that?

Steven Busby

Management

This is Steve Busby again. At Huaron we've been working on a basically a four year project to deepen the mine below the main drainage tunnel. We have a significant drainage tunnel at the 250 level, the 250 meters above 4,000 meters that's been draining the mine for quite a number of years, 50 plus years. We have started four years ago going beneath that drainage tunnel to develop our next level down which is the 180 level and in order to do that we had to install some pretty significant pumping to pump the water that drains down into that level back up to the 250 and out through the drainage tunnel, plus we have that a lot more ventilation and ramp access and we also extended a shaft or reactivated a shaft in the area to allow production. The complexities of that project are pretty severe given that kind of water flow, half a cubic meters per second type of water flows we are dealing with there. And the project turned out to be a four -- it’s turning out to be a 4.5 year type of project, where we expected it originally to be something closer to three years. Because of that, our high grade deposits or high-grade reserves all occur beneath the 250 level, we are having to mine lower grades than we had desired in the time we are waiting to get that level opened up. We now have the infrastructure in place, we are now focused on developing the ore deposits beneath that 250. It just takes time to complete all the underground advances and slope preparation works and we are expecting as I said in this third quarter that we’ll be slowly ramping up from about 2000 tons a month coming out of the180, today to the 9000 tons a month we expect in the third quarter, which will be significantly higher grade.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Can you give us a sense of what the grade is going to be from the deeper part of the mine?

Steven Busby

Management

We expect the 180 will be above the 200 grams silver, 210, even as high as 220, where when we are above the 250 we are seeing grades drop down below the 180 gram type figure in rough numbers.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Then I had one other question. What were the cost implications of the power rate hike at La Colorada?

Geoffrey Burns

Management

La Colorada right now, when you look back to 2008, we had seen power rates increase to close to $0.12 per kilowatt-hour. And then in 2009, after the economic crisis, the government did put a program in place and reduced the power cost we've been enjoying, somewhere around 5.5, something less than $0.06 a kilowatt hour. We’re anticipating that they are going to raise the rates somewhere between that $0.06 and $0.12 and we have budgeted $0.10 a kilowatt hour and the impact to us is somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple of hundred thousand dollars per month more cost.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the time we have for questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Burns.

Geoffrey Burns

Management

Thank you operator, and thank you ladies and gentlemen for joining us here this morning. I'm very much looking forward to our first quarter conference call, which will probably be sometime in the middle of May and being able to give you an update on our progress at that point in time, as well as celebrate with everyone Canada's gold medal men's hockey final victory. And with that, I'd like to conclude the call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.