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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 30, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and factors, which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Yamana’s press release issued yesterday, announcing third quarter 2020 results as well as the management’s discussion and analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at 12’o clock PM Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana’s website at yamana.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Daniel Racine, President and CEO.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Melanie. Thank you all for joining us and welcome to our third quarter conference call. With me today is Jason LeBlanc, our CFO and Henry Marsden, our Senior VP of Exploration. Let me start by thanking again, all our employees, contractors, suppliers, and their family for their effort keeping our operations safe in these difficult times. First, as always let’s talk about our health, safety, environment and corporate responsibility. Our total recordable injury frequency rate was 0.4, representing a 31% improvement. Our social license to operate index, which is based on surveys conducted on our host communities continues to show an increase in trust across all our operation. Evidence indicates that our COVID-19 response and engagement is a significant contributor to the improvement. We have, as I said on the Q2 call, engaged closely with our host communities since the early stage of the pandemic to understand their needs and help them address those needs. We’ve provided various donation along with thousands of masks, gloves, and sanitizer, respirators, and other medical equipment and critical supplies. And we will continue to do everything we can to support our communities, partner through this challenging period. During the quarter, the Jacobina mine was named one of the “10 Best Places to Work in the programs of Bahia” by The Great Place to Work Institute. The Canadian Malartic Mine received two awards. The first The F.J. O’Connell Trophy for the Quebec – from the Quebec Mining Association, which recognized the operations for improvement in the operations, health and safety records compared to the industry average. The second was the Sustainable Development and Environment Award from the Val-d’Or Chamber of Commerce. We are proud of these recognitions, which tell us we are doing the right things in critical areas of our business, like…

Henry Marsden

Management

Thank you, Daniel. I’ll start with a high-level overview of our generative exploration program. We currently build large land positions and all the countries, where we operate and the generative program targets our most highly prospective areas. This includes both advanced and earlier stage projects wherever we see district scale potential. The key objective of the program is to add a new inferred mineral resource of at least one and a half million ounces of gold within three years, where it would support the corporate objectives of a potential production platform that can produce 150,000 ounces per year. Given the pipeline we have, the quality projects and the strong corporate commitment to organic growth. We do expect to be able to meet this objective. As Daniel mentioned, as an extension of the strategy, we also actively evaluate opportunities to acquire advanced stage exploration assets as long as they align with our corporate objectives. Now, I’ll move to a quick update on some of the key projects in the program at Monument Bay, located in Manitoba Canada to drilling program to test the depth extension of high-grade shoots at Twin Lakes is ongoing with one drill hole completed in the quarter and two further deep holes pending. There’s a 16,000 meter drill program planned for the winter as a first step in developing a high-grade potentially underground resource with this project. At Lavra Velha, which is an advanced exploration project located in Bahia, Brazil, drilling to-date in 2020 focused on the Lavra Velha South and southwest zones located immediately south of the established resource. results are positive to-date and we expect to add to the resource base of offside mineralization by year-end, exploratory drilling is continuing in Q4. The Jacobina Norte project is also located in Bahia state, located just a…

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thank you, Henry, and good morning, everyone. turning now to our financial performance revenue in the quarter was $439.4 million compared to $357.8 million in the same period of 2019, a 23% increase. However gross margins, excluding DD&A rose 40% to $272.8 million as costs were pretty much in line with last year. G&A costs in the quarter were essentially flat at $21.4 million. earnings during the quarter were $0.06 per share compared to $0.21 per share a year earlier. prior year earnings benefited from a one-time $273.1 million gain from the Chapada sale. So on an adjusted basis, net earnings doubled at $0.10 per share from $0.05 last year. total CapEx across all categories was about $62 million during Q3, as we bounced back from COVID delays in Q2, although we still had some spending delays in Q3. for Q4, I expect capital spending to be above the levels of Q3. The same will also be true of exploration expenses. but despite the higher capital in Q4, we expect a meaningful increase in production such that unit costs will be the lowest of the year. We’ll see a bigger drop in cash costs versus ASIC, because with ASIC, as I mentioned, we’ll have the higher CapEx. but we expect our ASIC over to 2H to be between $1,020 and $1,060 per GEO that we recently regarded. coming back to CapEx. One category to point out though is on the expansionary capital side that benefited from the margin associated with precommercial ounces from Barnat at Malartic. at Barnat only declared commercial production on September 30, the margin during the quarter from its precommercial production of approximately $13.5 million was treated as a reduction in our expansionary capital for the quarter during Q3. starting in Q4, sales from Barnat will flow…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Jason. In closing, I’ll leave you with a few takeaways. We are now well into our historically strongest quarter and executing exceptionally well and what we believe is the early stages of a secular full cycle for gold. Production in Q4 is planned to be higher than Q3. Meaning, are all in sustaining costs and cash costs will be significantly lower also. our cash flow and cash balances are rising, hitting multi-year high in the last – latest quarter, significantly improving our financial flexibility. As a result, we are well-positioned to invest in growth while continuing to increase shareholder returns as evidenced by the recently announced 50% increase to our dividend. And with that, we’ll be happy to take your question. operator?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Fahad Tariq of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First on Cerro Moro, I think it was a positive update that you’re back to, call it, run rate throughput at the end of September. One of your gold competitors also in the same country is having far more difficult and running well below capacity. Can you talk a little bit about what you’re doing differently at Cerro Moro to maybe, mitigate some of the COVID-related impact? And the second part of the question, what’s kind of the run rate company-wide for COVID costs going forward. Thanks.

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, good morning, Fahad and good question. So, for Cerro Moro, as you all know, we had quite long ramp up, because of transport restriction, but we were able through the quarter to mitigate that one of the things we have done is, we have improved the runway, the airplane landing at Puerto Deseado. So, our employees coming from outside the province, now we flew them to Puerto Deseado. So, it’s easier to have them to site. All our employees are tested before they go to shift change. So, each 14 days we have a shift change at the Cerro Moro. So, with time we have improved the way we’re doing this. So, everybody needs to have a negative test before going into the mine site. We’re having a lot less people at the mine site to be honest and all our staff on administration mostly are working from home. So, we have established make sure that they can do their work from home. So, only people that needed to go to site or going to site. We have increased our number of employees coming from Santa Cruz. So, we had before, around 30% from employees coming from outside. we move many of them into the province to avoid the problem with transportation. But also, we have hired more people locally. So, this is why as I mentioned before, and I mentioned in the call earlier. by the end of the September, we will fully back into production at Cerro Moro. I don’t know for Cerro Negro, it’s the same province, but it’s further north. So maybe, there was more difficulty for people. but in our case, the run rate is like I mentioned that between 1,000 and 1,150 tons per day. So, we’re fully back to production. regarding the second part, maybe, Jason can answer, but the run rates, like we said, it’s going to be a lot higher than it was for sure in Q2 for COVID costs.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes. And on the cost side, I guess I had mentioned, we’ll see – we thought that the decrease in those COVID costs between Q2 to Q3. we’ll see that carry on into Q4 and really the Cerro Moro will be the operation that we’ll have some of those lingering costs. And it’s from transportation and as Daniel said, we’ll continue to spend that money. We think it makes sense to improve the certainty of getting people in and out. And then also, we’ve physically moved people into the province instead of transporting them back and forth. So, there’s some additional costs on that. So, I think it’s probably a couple of million dollars for the time being. I would say it’s providing that at Cerro Moro for those costs of that, that helps assure our ability to hit those fall throughput rates that we’re achieving right now.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Okay, great. So, the $5.7 million of incremental cost that you incurred in Q3 for company-wide, is that like a good run rate going forward as well?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No. We should see a little bit lower than that of the $5.7 million, I think, just a little under half of that was attributable to Cerro Moro and I expect Cerro Moro to really be the bulk of that prospectively, next mine is El Peñón and that’s similar – just transportation there, and most of the other operations we’re seeing these costs really fade away.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Okay. And then the last question from me. on slide 11, you mentioned acquisition of earlier stage development assets, any geographic preference anything you can provide on that?

Daniel Racine

Management

Any of the four countries we are working into right now, Fahad, so we like Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. And if there’s opportunity there, then we’re going to look at them. So, our first priority is our expansion project, both that Jacobina and Canadian Malartic. And also, our – generative exploration program like – and we mentioned, we think there’s at least one mine that will be – happen within the next three years with these exploration projects. But on top of that, if there’s any good opportunities in the four countries, we are – we’re going to look at them now.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Okay. That’s clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ralph Profiti of Eight Capital. please go ahead.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Two of them please; one on capital allocation and maybe, one on Canadian Malartic, Daniel. The first one should – when you lay out the generative exploration strategy, are you looking at this as a dedicated pool of capital that that’s going to get put to work? Because we see the cash reserve fund and we see the dividend strategy as sort of these very structured frameworks and I’m just wondering, is your approach to generative exploration along the same lines, and maybe, give us an indication of how much capital will be put to this over the next few years?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes. Thank you, Ralph. Good morning. It’s a good question. Yes, it is. It is very well aligned. We have $53 million over the next two years. So there was $14 million in 2020. There’s $220 million in next year and the rest to the $53 million in 2022. So, it’s very structured. We have these seven projects. We have many projects in the company, but we choose the best seven. And this is where we’re going to focus our attention in the next three years. And then like we mentioned, many times, we think one of these seven projects will generate what we’re looking for, so 1.5 million ounces of potential at least and then to be able to produce 150,000 ounces per year. So, that’s really clear. our objective and is very clear on that generative exploration program. We’ll see after what will happen. And then yes, it is a separate budget. Then the rest of the exploration that doesn’t touch the exploration that we’re doing at our mine site, it’s a really separate from that.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Got it. Let me switch to a Canadian Malartic, then where is the Q4 drilling at East Gouldie, you’re going to be focused on, is this continuing to be infill and how far is the team away from testing convergence at depth between East Malartic and East Gouldie, and when possibly, could we receive results from that testing?

Daniel Racine

Management

Henry?

Henry Marsden

Management

Yes. Thanks, Ralph. Good question. The drilling in Q4 will focus on simply infilling around the envelope that sort of shows up on that longitudinal section.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Yes.

Henry Marsden

Management

We’re also doing some 75 meter space drilling in kind of the core upper part of the deposit. So at the end of that, we expect to see a reasonably high confidence inferred resource and a few areas, in which we’ll see a slightly higher confidence level at that 75 meters. We’re quite a long way from testing the convergence and I don’t see us doing that within the year or probably even in 2021. What we are seeing are some fairly high-grade zones that we can actually project uptick, especially to the East and we have a positive drill hole out to the East domain – East Gouldie zone, a significant step out of about 200 meters. So, we’re simply going to focus on growing that core zone, it’s remarkably continuous. So, we’ll simply just be stepping out and growing like core zone as much as possible, rather than focusing on deeper drilling down to the conversions there.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Daniel. Thanks, Henry.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Carey MacRury of Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just wondering if you could give us a little more granularity on the grades you’re expecting at Cerro Moro and helping you out for Q4?

Daniel Racine

Management

Good morning, Carey. Jason, do you have these numbers?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes. I think we’ve seen pretty steady grade at the – at Cerro Moro through year despite COVID. We’re going to be – we’re going to be moving back towards reserve grades for Q4. El Peñón is maybe, a marginal uptick on grade as we move on here is, what we indicated in the MD&A of last night. So, I think that’s what that’s – that’s the way to look at it.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

So the Q4, the implied production given the guidance is a pretty big step-up. Is there any, are you expecting pickups at the other assets similarly?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Well, I think you hit on one of them. We’ve got full throughput at Cerro Moro with the grade mentioned. I think also Malartic was working its way through some stockpiles as well. So, we’ll see uptick in grade there in Q4, and obviously, with the tonnage that has a pretty, a pretty big impact on the production level. So, those are probably the big two and otherwise it’s a steady, steady issue across the operation. But as you pointed out, it’s pretty easy to infer what we expect from Q4 here. It’s a very – it’s a very strong quarter.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Then maybe, a question on the Malartic underground. I mean, you mentioned in your press release, getting the 20,000 tons per day. Just wondering if you just sort of walk through how you get there, from 2023 to 2029, is that the shock coming in into 2025, 2026, or is there multiple declines? just wondering if could just outline that?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, we have to complete, Carey, the PA study that will be completed by the end of this year, early next year, where our team and our – at the mine site, the partnership team, and also our partner Agnico and us were working all three together to optimize the actual PA study. We’ll have to make decision based on PA and then mostly inferred resources, but like – and we mentioned is very continuous. As we see right now, production from the open pit is still another seven years to go until the 2027. We’re going to see how and when we can bring the underground production into from underground as we start to ramp now in November, you can imagine we’re going to access for sure with the Odyssey South zone way sooner than 2027, probably sometime in 2023. So, there’s potential that there’s some production coming, starting in 2023 from that zone specifically, but it won’t be a very high production. I think our focus right now is mostly to see how we can increase production in the open pit. We have ideas that can extend or increase the resources or reserve in the actual Barnat pit, the link between the Barnat and main Canadian Malartic pit is potential to go mine other ounces. We mentioned potential around in other smaller open pit on surface. So, there’s a lot of work going on with the partner and the two companies to see how we can bring the production in that 2027, 2028, 2029 years, during the time that the shaft is completed, and then it all depends on when we’re going to start that completed and then go with the underground – full underground production.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The following question is from Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Hi, guys. just some follow-ups on Malartic underground. with respect to permits, is there any need to gain additional permits for the project?

Daniel Racine

Management

Good morning, Mike. For the underground, we have already the exploration permit. So, there’s no problem to drive the ramp even to go to a bulk sample. So, we’re going to have to transfer that to an operation permit eventually, but that should not be an issue, because the infrastructure on surface won’t change. So, the tailings are there that’s already permitted the mill. As we have mentioned many times in the past, when the tailing specialities are full, then we’re going to put tailings at the bottom of the main Canadian Malartic pit. And then you can assume that the capacity of the – both pits when there will be depleted, and when the underground mine comes into production, there’s going to be plenty of spaces. So, basically permitted is going to be lot less or a lot less easy to obtain as you don’t do any surface expansion or work, and it’s basically underground. So, there’s no doubt, there’s no public hearing, I should say, in English, resulting from going underground. So, a lot easier to get permitted.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Sounds good. The other thing with the ability to use the pits as dealing facilities for the underground, does that give you any beneficial impact on closure costs that were allocated to the open pit?

Daniel Racine

Management

We were driving our ramp right away from the two pits. So, we won’t use the pit for the underground. Like I mentioned, we’re planning to put ways and also tailings in the – mostly in main Canadian Malartic pit. So that won’t be really – it will, after the underground, because we won’t have any infrastructure to build on surface for tailings, but other than that, there’s no real use on the two pits for accessing underground.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Right. Okay. And then with the ramp, it sounds like you’ve got the focus near term as well as exploration. So, in terms of a significant step-up in the capital, recognizing this is still early days, and we’re still waiting on the PA, but your partner kind of indicated that you’re not likely to have a construction decision made off a reserve. It would be more off a resource when you go ahead kind of move on this is made. So, are we thinking kind of two or three years out before you would see significant capital getting spent on this project?

Daniel Racine

Management

Again, you made it clear. We will approve the project on the PA and inferred resources. Mostly, there will be some indicated, but mostly inferred and will let the PA be competed, then make the decision, but we’re not many years away of capital. We’re starting to wrap. We know what the ramp development over the next two years is going to be ramp development, a lot of drilling happening from underground. And then if the PA is – gave us the answer, we think it’s going to give us, then we go ahead. Then we have to do a lot of the engineering and ordering of the equipment. So, there’s already a lot of engineering done. We have mentioned in the past the size of the shaft, the type of voice we’re going to use, type of tonnage, we think we can achieve from the underground. So, I think as soon as that PA is out, both us and our partner are going to have to make a decision if we go ahead right away, or we wait more time to do. If we go right away, there’s going to be capital spend next year – at the end of next year. And then in 2022, if we wait, then it will be delayed by the amount of time we decided to postpone the project. But so far, I think us and our partner are quite excited about the project. The mine is excited. The PA looks really good what we have seen so far, it’s not completed, but what we have seen so far. So, we’ll see in the New Year, but I wouldn’t be surprised that it will take very long before we make the decision to go or no-go.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay. Sounds good. And switching over to the open pit side of things, we saw a really good throughput in the quarter, is that a function of Barnat has always historically been known is going to be a software ore source, is that what’s kind of helping that hit close to 60,000 tons per day?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes. putting finally having Barnat into production that’s helping quite a lot. It’s good. It’s better great as you know, but great going down at the Canadian Malartic is where at the bottom go to the bottom now, it’s getting better do, it’s a softer horror for sure. The Barnat is one of the big factor in Q3 was Barnat and as we’re going to move more into Barnat in the coming months and quarter. And then yes, it’s going to continue to improve. We had great success in Q2, in tons per day, same against in Q3 and then despite two shutdowns in Q3. So, it was remarkable that the mill was able to do this tonnage despite of two shutdowns. We have one plan in December, but you’re right. It seems the ore is more easier to mine in Barnat for now, but we’re on just starting. So, we have to see in the next seven years, but yes, Barnat is helping quite a lot to improve production at the mine right now.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Super. Looking forward to the fourth quarter. And thanks again, for taking the questions.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question is Tim Huff of Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.

Tim Huff

Analyst

Yes. Just a follow-up on one of your earlier questions, which is, I know you’re still firmly in production recovery mode as we head into year-end and looking forward to the fourth quarter. As we – given what you’ve said on Cerro Moro, with respect to staffing levels and potential production efficiencies. I mean, as we head into 2021, do you see more scope for cost initiatives in the year, quite simply because we’ve seen that from one or two of the gold producers over here. And I didn’t know if your focus is shifting a little bit more from production recovery to cost initiatives going into the following year.

Daniel Racine

Management

Good afternoon, Tim. Yes. Cerro Moro; the first objective this quarter in Q2, was to put the mine fully back into production. We achieved that and we don’t see that being an issue going forward. We have always worked on cost improvement. They have improved this year. They will continue to improve in Q4 as production is going to be significantly higher compared to whatever we achieve in the first three quarter of this year. So, you’ll see in Q4 a big increase in production, and then also on the same token decrease in costs, cash costs and all-in sustaining costs at Cerro Moro. We have a lot of fixed costs at our mines and – but as soon as you produce more ounces with the same amount of people and there won’t be any more people at the site with higher production than our costs are going to be impacted. but like any of our mines, like the other four mines, do they have each year projects to decrease costs, being more efficient, and Cerro Moro is doing the same thing also.

Tim Huff

Analyst

Okay. That’s great. Thanks.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions registered at this time. I’ll turn the meeting back over to Mr. Racine.

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining us. We look forward to updating you on our fourth quarter and year-end result in February. Please take care and stay safe. Thank you and bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.