Greg Armstrong
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Well, part of its going to depend how quickly we can roll this inventory off, it has been building we’ve got quite a bit of turnarounds. If you look at our chart, we are expecting a build to start happening in October, November – lot of turnarounds coming. The most quick solution to lower the inventory build is to stop importing more barrels. So part of the journey is how aggressive the mid eastern companies are – countries are in trying to price these barrels into our market. So far they have been pretty aggressive, I think, due [ph] to-date, even though we’ve had high inventory levels and low prices, total imports into the U.S. have been only down about 120,000 and 130,000 barrels a day came today. That’s pretty amazing, when you think about it, especially considering that Canada had some about 200,000 barrels a day, reduced imports in the second quarter over the first quarter, because of the Canadian fires. So I’d say whatever activities of foreign countries with respect to trying to push barrels into our market will be having impact on that. The other one is just how U.S. producers collectively act over the next six months to nine months, maybe 12 months. I refer to it if we stayed on the 21 day diet, we would have been fine. For about – looks like 10 days to 15 days into that, people started picking up rigs and saying, let us go back after the game. And that turns that into 45 days or 60 days [indiscernible]. So I think that could extend it. Candidly, we had picked June 30 as kind of our inflection, June 30, 2016 is our point where we though. At that point, we pick an over and under-arm prices for WTA probably in the neighborhood of $70.00. Partly because we thought the inventory situation would clean up by then or if it didn’t we would see visibility for it to clean up, which means you had continued production rollover in the U.S. and you’ve had some concession from the Middle Eastern companies that they have caused enough pain to quit forcing barrels into complicate that. I mean there are so many variables in it Jeremy. If Iran comes on and they don’t make room for them, it could get hopefully a little bit longer. Again, that would probably hurt our near-term outlook but probably improve the overall long-term because of the rationalization would have to happen in competitors that we have that have marginal outlooks in that type of environment. So it’s – we think six times kind of the year transition, we think we picked right at the mid-to-late part of the recovery, but could it be little bit later certainly could depending on what – it’s going on overseas.