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Pampa Energía S.A. (PAM)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 11, 2025

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Transcript

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for waiting. I'm Raquel Cardasz from IR, and I would like to welcome everyone to Pampa Energia's Second Quarter of 2025 Results Video Conference. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Before continuing, please read the disclaimer on the second page of our presentation. Let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on Pampa Energia's management beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they are related to future events that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic and industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energia and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn to Lida. Please go ahead.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Thank you, Raquel. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I will make a real quick summary of the Q2, so we can have more time for questions with the management. Today for the Q&A, we have our CEO, Mr. Gustavo Mariani; our Head of Oil and Gas, Mr. Horacio Turri; and our CFO, Mr. Adolfo Zuberbuhler. So going to the Slide 3, several key developments marked the second quarter of 2025. First and foremost is the successful production ramp-up in Rincón de Aranda, thanks to the tied in of new pads in coordination with the commissioning of supporting infrastructure such as the temporary processing facility, internal and trunk pipelines and so on. So also the contribution of the new 140 megawatts wind farm PEPE 6 and the higher spot prices boosted the quarter's figures. However, colder temperatures started in June, so delayed the spike of the winter, the winter spike in both power and gas demand. Petchem contributed positive EBITDA continue gradually recovering, returning to a positive EBITDA. Finally, in a proactive liability management transaction, we extended the 2029 notes to 2034 with a $140 million recap issued at the lowest spread over U.S. treasuries in Pampa's history. But let's move into the quarter's financial results. The adjusted EBITDA amounted to $239 million. This is a 17% decline year-on-year, driven by soft gas sales, falling petchem prices and higher operating expenses weighted on the performance. The headwinds were partially offset by contributions from the new PEPE 6 wind farm, increased gas exports to Chile and higher production at Rincón de Aranda. Quarter-on-quarter, EBITDA improved due to the seasonality and growing output at Rincón de Aranda. CapEx surged 134% year-on- year, reaching to $354 million. The majority, which is $249 million was invested in the development of…

Lida Wang

Analyst

All right. Cool. Let's hit it off. No, no we have already received questions.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Already? Okay.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Because the third question goes to you.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

And 99%...

Lida Wang

Analyst

And 99% target to Horacio Turri. Which is, could you give us more color from [ Jonatha's work from that wire ]? Could you give us more color on the CPF in Rincón de Aranda, please?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining the meeting. The CPF stands for central processing facility. And basically, it has 3 different, I would say, purposes. One, obviously, is the oil and water separation and the disposal of that flowback water, the possibility of having the oil ready to be dispatched to the YPF facility in order to get it in a spec for injection in the main pipeline and also the separation of natural gas, which is currently being sent through a gas pipeline to the Vista facility in [ Bateria Tres ], which has already been connected. This processing -- central processing facility has a total output of 7,000 cubic meters per day. And we expect it to be finished by the end of 2026.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Which is 45,000 barrels per day?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Which is -- yes, a little bit less than 45,000 barrels per day, 42,000 something.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Which is our plateau.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

This is our expected plateau, that is right.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Awesome. Well, the next question, yes, is for Gustavo. Have you already started self-producing with our own-fuel, meaning self- producing power, right? Your own fuel? If not, when do you expect to begin? And which is the spread between CAMMESA's reference price and your own procurement price?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. Yes, we have begun to self-procure our own gas to our facilities. But on a marginal basis because, as you know, the deregulation has not occurred yet, but there are some opportunities for us to self-procure our fuel on some of our facilities, those that do not require firm gas transportation or whether those days we find firm transportation capacity. So the answer is yes, we have begun to do it on a marginal basis. And you asked about this...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Price.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

The Price...

Lida Wang

Analyst

What's the spread against the Plan Gas price, I guess?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Yes. Currently, correct me, it's $9 is what...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

$9 and $8, no?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Currently, it's $8. Yes, CAMMESA has been changing this regulation or this pricing has been -- initially has allowed generators to buy natural gas up to $11 per million of BTU, then to $9 per million of BTU. And this current 2 weeks because it's a system that changes every 2 weeks, it's $8 per million of BTU. So the spread to winter gas price is about $3.5 or something like that. Winter gas price for CAMMESA is around $4.50, I would say.

Lida Wang

Analyst

It's Loma De La Lata, right? Specifically?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

That's the facility that we are able to take advantage of this opportunity because it doesn't require gas transportation.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Awesome. Next question comes from [ Guido Visocero from Alaria ]. And he asked again, Horacio regarding Rincón de Aranda, could you give us any color on the expected evolution of the lifting cost throughout the second half of the year and 2026, considering the ramp-up expected in production and until the processing plant is constructed?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Second quarter of '25, we were a little bit below $16 per barrel, basically due to the fixed cost of the TPF or the temporary production facility, which has a lease has to be paid annually and it's fixed. And the production rate in the second quarter of '25 was 5,000 barrels per day. So that explains the high lifting cost. Moving to the first half of 2025 due to the increase in production, as Lida mentioned before, we are close to 15,000 barrels per day. We are reaching around $8.5 per barrel in terms of lifting cost. We also reduced significantly the figure from the first quarter due to the connection of our oil pipeline. We were evacuating oil through trucks at the very beginning. By 2026, with the increase in production to 20,000 barrels per day, we should be hitting around $7 per barrel. And the final stage will be the installation and construction of the CPF and that will move down the lifting cost to $5 per barrel with a plateau of 45,000 barrels per day.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Awesome. You mentioned the oil average price will have been $58.5 per barrel without the hedging strategy in Q2 '25. Was that me -- I mentioned that. Despite the $67.5 Brent average in the period. Are you planning to hedge production during 2026?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

$58.5 is NATO. [Foreign Language].

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

I think that the main difference is that the Brent has 2 discounts in order to be transform it in the well...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Price.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Well price.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Well price, the wellhead price. One is the export tax, which is 8%. And also there's a premium for Medanito quality, which ranges, but it's around $2 to $1.5 per barrel.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

And discount -- premium...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

A negative premium. So this is basically the explanation. And regarding the hedging for 2026, we already started hedging. Now we are already hedged until what -- September but July is the exercise content.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Yes. Basically, we have 1 year forward, we are hedged currently around 70%, 75% of our expected production at a price of $69.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Do you expect that our prices, Horacio, Gus? I mean less discount versus Brent? And when you reach the 20,000 barrels production targets by year-end, a little bit for [indiscernible]?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

It's impossible to predict at all. We don't feel that we can predict. So we look at the future prices of Brent as the best indication of where prices are going to be so we cannot say anything better than that than what the future market curves predict.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Then [ Vigo ] asks about the [ CSA ], which is the sovereign energy, LNG, [indiscernible] LNG project. Do you expect any participation in the construction and maintenance of the required gas new gas pipeline for TGS?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

We are still in discussions and trying to put together the best solution for that. But eventually TGS could be part of the consortium to build and operate that gas pipeline.

Lida Wang

Analyst

How much gas may Pampa add in sales for these 2 ships in '27 and '28, how much CapEx do you need to achieve it?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Okay. The total amount of gas at the end of the 2 vessels being operational in Argentina is around 6 million cubic meters per day. That is by the end of 2028. The CapEx associated for the ramp-up and the construction of a new facility in Sierra Chata, we are talking about $400 million, out of which 50% facility, 50% is perforation -- drilling and completion. And then we will have around $60 million to $80 million per year on a plateau basis to keep up with the 6 million.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Great. The 6 million is breakdown between 2.5 for the first shift.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes, that's the total amount at the end of the 2 vessels being operational. This approximately 40% with the first vessel than 60% with the segments.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Awesome. And he asked the last question is about the TGS private initiative. So how much EBITDA -- annual EBITDA contribution for TGS do you expect for this project?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

No, I don't have that figure in my mind. Should ask that to.

Lida Wang

Analyst

[ 4 million ]. That's what it is.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

You should ask that to TGS once...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Once it's done.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

When it's awarded.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes. Because the award is in October. But it's the sole bidder, so I don't know if they are going to wait until October. And how much gas will Pampa add in the production considering the 14 million cubic meters per day new capacity for the [indiscernible] pipeline?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Eventually, Pampa has reserves to supply all that gas. But how much, what market share of that new market will Pampa again? It's a question that we still don't have an answer. We expect that is -- these are increasing the capacity of the pipeline. So this 14 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. They are going to be used for a short period of time, something like around 100 days per year during -- mostly during wintertime. So it will replace imports of LNG and diesel oil that the country does at much higher prices. So pricing for this gas should be close to that import parity, but we will see once that market develops.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Sorry. This is a new [indiscernible]. He says, well, something that we always ask in every quarter is what prices of natural gas are we forecasting for this project?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

That is very [indiscernible].

Lida Wang

Analyst

Okay. Then Alan Mecelis from Jefferies, he's asking something about the lifting costs and drilling costs that we already answered, right? Drilling cost, we didn't answer though.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes, we have.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Drilling cost, we didn't answer. He's asking how the drilling costs are evolving?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Okay. Drilling costs are going down, specifically talking about drilling. We moved from drilling efficiency of around 500 to 600 meters per day to around 900 meters per day. So we are improving significantly in our drilling efficiency. On top of that, we also made some improvements in our stage fracking per day, moving from 6 or 7 to around 8 -- 10 to 11. So in all, with the improvements in completion and drilling, we should be able to reduce our total cost per well from $15.5 million to something around $13 million. But this is going to take some more time, probably 1 more year.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Okay. And what level of shale oil production do you expect from Rincón de Aranda? This is what we...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Already mentioned.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Already mentioned. Quarterly, I guess, by no, next quarter.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Next quarter. Next quarter is okay, no problem. We are currently in -- I mean, in the range of 15,000 barrels per day and we should be increasing our production in order to reach 18,000 barrels per day by the end of the year by the last quarter. So that's more or less what we have in our minds for the ramp-up.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

We could say that. Before, we were expecting to reach that by year-end and now we are the average of the fourth quarter is going to be around that like the good results of Rincón de Aranda have anticipated.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. There is a mixture there, but all in all, we're going to be reaching the 18,000 or 19,000, 20,000 barrels per day by year-end. There might be a gap in the next quarter. By the end of the year, we should be definitely reaching the 15,000 to 20,000 barrels per day.

Lida Wang

Analyst

[indiscernible] is all asking the evolution of Rincón de Aranda iron Ore.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

In terms of shale oil?

Lida Wang

Analyst

Shale oil. Yes.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

The Rio Engenio project is very, very -- I mean it's at a very early stage, is exploratory. There have been -- the 2 wells have been drilled already and still a long way to go. I mean it's not a project. It's just a pilot.

Lida Wang

Analyst

It's in the border of Vaca Muerta, right?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

It's a border of Vaca Muerta. The results have not been that bad. I mean, it's okay, but still a long way to go to decide well to move steadier.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, [indiscernible] Securities also ask about the listing trends. So we will answer that. Bruno [indiscernible] Morgan Stanley, is asking, can you comment on expectations for cash generation in second half of 2025. In particular, how should you -- should we see any the same CapEx intensity in Rincón de Aranda. What about the working capital should be any reversal of the pressure observed in the second half of 2025?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

The cash generation in the second half of 2025 is going to be negative. As we have been saying for a few quarters 2025 and 2026 are going to be years where basically because of the money that we will be deploying in Rincón de Aranda that I remind you, it's going to be $1.5 billion between 2025 and 2026. We will be having negative free cash flow in Pampa. So we're investing in excess of our free cash flow generation. So the intensity will continue in the second half of this year. And in the first half of next year, you should be expecting a negative free cash flow. Anything else?

Lida Wang

Analyst

Working capital. What do you think about working capital? Usually, it gets better in the second half of the year, right?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

I don't know if you could...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Would you like to comment?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Capital, we don't present to have more working capital, should we recover all the production from the third and the fourth quarter should improve.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes and because -- and as sales will increase, so there will be a little bit more working capital involved in the coming quarters, but that's something natural because of the increase in sales.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes. I remind you all that Pampa, it's a golf curve, right? This is our big moment. Q2 and Q3. Also, if you comment on the company's learning care in operating shale oil, Horacio?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. Well, we are definitely learning a lot. And as I mentioned before, we were able to take advantage of this productivity increase, both in drilling and completion, and we are now trying to understand a little bit better whether the long-range sand versus a short- range sand and the spacing between stages have to remain constant or something that we can keep on trying to understand better and eventually improve some more dollars in our total well per cost and cost per well.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes, asked also what positive surprises have you been seeing or any main challenges since the beginning of the operation at Rincón de Aranda?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Okay. I would say that the most interesting surprise we had in Rincón de Aranda is that originally, we had 2 landing zones, [indiscernible] Orgánico Inferior. We had some expectations on the Orgánico Superior, but with a lot of uncertainty we drilled in pad #6, we drilled well to the Orgánico Superior target and with a very, very good performance, and that opens up the possibility of developing as well the third layer that was not before taking into account.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Right. So basically, the company is confident with the growth profile to reach the peak production as well?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes.

Lida Wang

Analyst

All right. Next question comes from Lin Yang from HSBC. And She asked, well, for Horacio. Could you give us more color on the free LNG -- the [indiscernible] LNG projects going on in Argentina, specifically on the timing and your interest in participating?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Can comment on the thing was participating in the other 2 projects, our YPF projects and rather ask them what they're going to do all of that.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes, she asks, if we are interested in participating.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

We have -- as we always say, we always say very competitive gas reserves. So we are always interested in projects that will -- that could allow us to develop this extraordinary gas reserves that we have. Today, we are 100% focused on the CSA project, the one that it's already underway. And we are discussing with YPF and the other partners, any other possibility, but there's not much to say there.

Lida Wang

Analyst

She asked, where do you see high upside potential power, TGS or E&P? Very straightforward.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

I think there is upside potential in all the 3 segments. Obviously, in the next -- in the near term, E&P is where the growth on the EBITDA of Pampa is going to come from in a very significant way in terms because of the development of Rincón de Aranda. In the case of power, we are waiting for the new regulation. There are no news there, but we are waiting for that. It's not something, as we said, that's going to be a game changer for Pampa, but we expect an improvement in the power business because of the new regulation. And in the short term, we should be also expecting the need of additional an increase in the capacity of the country on big projects that take a long time to develop like 3 years. So there's going to be an opportunity for Pampa to continue growing in power generation after the deregulation. And TGS also has a lot of infrastructure projects on the pipeline to continue growth. So we see upside potential in all the 3 segments.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Great. Well, and then obviously, the more synergies between power and E&P gas.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

That's quite small now.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. referring to the...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Other energy storage.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes, [indiscernible] storage auction that we participated with a project of 50 megawatts. We are waiting to see whether we will be awarded or not. It's a very competitive project. It will 3x more offers than what CAMMESA was requesting. In the specific case of our project, it's even more competitive because we are competing with like 6 or 7 projects. So it's very, very competitive. We don't know whether we're going to be awarded or not.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Great. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible] is asking a lot of hedging strategy. We already talked about that, so we're going to skip it. The second question is regarding increasing our denominated costs within the fuel and gas segment, particularly lifting costs as well as selling SG&A. Is this trend primarily driven by the FX dynamics and inflationary pressures? Or it's another factor I might be overlooking?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

But we discussed the lifting cost of Rincón de Aranda.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes. But it's -- he's asking the peso share if have dollar inflation, right? Yes, we had inflation, right?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes.

Lida Wang

Analyst

We do have in on. It's smaller than other companies in the sense that we are -- no, in the sense that we are not a peso company, peso cost company. That will be worse. My third question is about the renewal of the hydroelectric concessions. What is the current status of the process? Have you been there any developments regarding the terms of the timing? Hydroelectric concessions. I guess the big ones, the ones that want to be tender, not in [indiscernible].

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. The first -- they should go the tenders of the new -- of the hydro concessions should go first with the [indiscernible], the ones that are basically [indiscernible] in Alcura, [indiscernible]. Those are the ones that are going to be auction first because they were the first that matured after is going to come the auction for [indiscernible], which will impact us. But we don't have any clarity on the timing of this process.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Four question goes to Bemos. The syndicated loan has been granted. When are the diversements expected to begin? And what is the project time line for the projected time line including the state of construction and operations?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

The financing was already deployed around $400 million. So we already started the use of cash of the financing. The advancement of the project is scheduled the first at different stages. The first stage has an advance of 23%. The second stages are around -- I don't remember exactly the -- and the like, but the project is -- everything is going as planned.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, he's asking the recent operations regarding the acquisition of 10% of fullback, the purchase of the dev in their cement that was released out there, what strategic objectives are driving these transactions.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

I think we talked about this in the previous quarter. There's no strategic objective on neither of these investments. They are financial. Yes, financial investments. So part of our portfolio management that we do on our cash position. So there's not much to share that financial transactions or strategic ones.

Lida Wang

Analyst

And there's really, really tiny out percentage on our close to $1 billion cash, right?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. Absolutely.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, this question always come out and it's coming from Francisco [indiscernible] from [indiscernible]. He's asking, are you looking to change the CapEx or production forecast due to the weaker oil prices. Again.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

No, we are not, then we -- no, definitely not. And that's. Additionally, that's why we are hedging our production so we have some more -- less uncertainty regarding the future of the project.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

If I can add. I would say that we are not surprised by current prices because a year ago, when you were looking at what future curve of rent was forecasting was lower prices than last year. So this is not a surprise. Rincón de Aranda is a profitable project at these levels. And we are -- we will -- as Horacio say, we will reach the plateau of 20 -- close to 20,000 barrels a note. We will reach a production of 20,000 barrels of oil per day by year-end. Once we have the central processing facility by the end of 2026, we will double -- more than double that production. And even at these prices, we are evaluating whether to reach another step in production intermedius before -- we haven't taken a final decision on that, but we are evaluating whether having an intermediate step next year before the as temporary with an initial temporary facility before the definitive facilities are online by year-end 2026.

Lida Wang

Analyst

All right. [indiscernible] from Bank of America. He's asking local news mentioned that you presented a bit for total assets in Argentina. Do you plan to bid for new brownfield projects, oil projects? Or the follows on all should rely solely on Rincón de Aranda? What were the synergies with total assets?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

As you know, in all the M&A transactions, we always sign NDAs that restricted us about maybe much information. So I don't want to breach what we have signed. So what I can say is that we are interested in increasing our acreage of our reserves where we would like to continue increasing production beyond where Rincón de Aranda is going to leave us. on an opportunistic basis. And so we will continue -- we will look to participate in any opportunity that may arise in the future. But yes. And regarding synergies, I would say there are any synergies between total between [indiscernible] and Rincón de Aranda. It's another field to develop without any synergy, but...

Lida Wang

Analyst

They're pretty far away, actually.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes, for 70 kilometers away.

Lida Wang

Analyst

70 kilometers. All right. Well, completely another nature of question is about the power sector rebilization. This is a very -- could you give us any update on the timetable? Yes, every quarter...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Nice question for the sector energy. I don't have an under [indiscernible]...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Real one.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Well, last year, when the issue, I do recall the number of the resolution, but it was before November of this year was supposed to be published all the new roles. So we are optimistic that in the next few months, we will have news about the upcoming regulation.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes, what's the marginal cost of operation in dollar terms in dollar per megawatt hour for Pampa assets? And what do you estimate as an potential for this rose potential in shoe for this tier? I guess...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

That's a question for you, if you have understood.

Lida Wang

Analyst

No. I guess, well, we have -- the deregulation is for the thermal, right, for the thermal units, if not the market marginal system for the thermal units. Obviously, the picking of the peakers known as the peakers, the open cycles, or weight of the lease in a normal day, right? Normal Argentina's normal day is around what sometimes -- the average car is $70 last year. But I guess, with more gas supply, less imports and so on, it should be going down, let's say, in the long term for a period of time is $60. But in a normal day, we know extreme weather, it should be around $40, $50 marginal cost, marginal costs. Yes, more or less. Right now, it's like 200. I think we are 10 degrees Celsius, right, this is winter season. And that's the opportunity line for the CCGTs, our CCGTs it's $35 per megawatt hour of marginal -- average cost -- variable cost. And then the other ones, the one that is very close and then a little bit out of the league, but this is still competitive in alarm. But truly out of the leg in a normal day should be the beakers. I can say more A lot of information. A lot of information to digest, yes. Well, Maria Catarosi from [indiscernible]. He's asking now the FID has approval the MK2, the floating LNG project. What are the key milestones, the next key milestones for the [indiscernible] project? Can you share more details on Pampa's expected equity and EBITDA contribution? An upstream and the project itself. And from the LNG project once it's operational. I guess, firstly, what kind of next movement is in the [indiscernible] project, I guess.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Well, we are in the process of building the pipeline into the...

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Benefit of the pipe.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes. But first, the interconnection with the [indiscernible] pipeline. Yes. So we are now in the construction of the interconnection with the [indiscernible] project than the installation of the compression plant for the first stage, that should be ready by 2027 in order to be able to feed the first trials of the of the [indiscernible] is moving from Cameron to shipyard in Singapore by mid next year and will be -- coming to Argentina by September [ 27 ]. We start build in already been built in the shipyard. It's doing -- I mean the project is advancing as was expected and should be online by again, third quarter of '28. At the same time, we should make a final decision regarding the construction of the dedicated pipeline from Neogen to the Golfo San Matias, which is currently under under consideration.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Great. And EBITDA and equity is 20%, 20% and EBITDA well until this is now obviously.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

The EBITDA will depend very much on LNG prices. So it's very variable and impossible to see at this moment.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, he's asking any chance of shareholder distribution we're assuming in 2027. I guess he's talking about the buybacks because in 2027 once CapEx levels are normalized, and free cash flow turns positive.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

We are far away from 2027, but I'm sure there's going to be a lot of new things going on by 2027. So too early to answer that.

Lida Wang

Analyst

We have to keep it up because we have cool questions. Safra from -- Carneiro from Safra. She is asking, we saw high level possible new projects and developments the, combo participate like the application to the rig for the CPS, the best battery standard, the TPM. Can you comment on the next possible infrastructure projects that can materialize in Pampa?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Eventually, if we move ahead with -- well, we are moving ahead with the LNG project, we will have to supply those 6 million cubic meters per day to the vessels. So we will have to increase our treatment facilities in Sierra Chata to reach those 6 million per day. And that will definitely be a possibility for filing for the really -- for that investment project as we did for Rincón de Aranda, as a midstream project.

Lida Wang

Analyst

And the second question of [indiscernible] allowed cost we already talked about. [indiscernible] from Alaria. She's asking what level on debt and leverage ratios are projected for 2026 and 2027, considering the projects already approved another wave.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

For this year, we are actually 1.1x net leverage EBITDA. We are expecting to maintain around this level of leverage this year. And hopefully, by next year or by the end of next year, which would decrease a little bit this level of leverage as we're going to and -- continue to generate new EBITDA to the company. So I think we will reach the peak of net leverage, what are the things being equal during the next quarter by year-end.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, the other question is about the scheduled maintenance works at the power plants that will take place in '25 and '26. So we are going from a big one right now. The our works in Senarra. Okay. [indiscernible] keeps asking. But usually, we do maintenance overflows in the in October area when there is...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Usually either during the fall or the squeezing.

Lida Wang

Analyst

That's right. And antialiasing another question, what do you see the opportunity for improvement in the discount versus Brent -- on Brent? See, the discount is $1, I guess?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

$1.5.

Lida Wang

Analyst

$1.5. Do you see shrinking?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

It's very difficult to say. It is a market -- it's not...

Lida Wang

Analyst

Or at least when we reach to the year-end target again.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

This is not related to our production. It's a market discount that [indiscernible].

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

For [indiscernible], I don't know. Maybe it depends on the [indiscernible] around the world.

Lida Wang

Analyst

It improved though, -- it was...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

It was 3 to 1.5. Now we may go again back to 2.2, we don't know.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

It ranges between 3 and 0.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes, not 0, but 3 and 1, let's say.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Last year was 5, I think.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Well, maybe it got to 5 for a small period.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes. Well, [indiscernible] from Fundamenta. He is an investor, and he is asking my questions regarding other operating income in Oil and Gas segment. This was $12 million versus $28 million last year. Can you comment -- can you explain why? Well, this is because of the plan gas income. The higher the prices to retail that we charge in the sales to lower the compensation to the plan gas price that we agree. Last year was the what because the tariff increases were in midway. I think it was $2 per million BTU, while in the winter was 4.5, well, the subsidy covers that gap between 4.5 and 2. Now that there's constant and frequent tariff increases to the retail, that gap shrinks.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

That's right.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Why one -- how much do we -- how much should we expect going forward? Well, it should be -- frankly, you should be there, right, with this government's target of no fiscal changes on abruptly because of the tariff increases. There's monthly increases in the tariffs in the regulated side and also in the -- well, in the cost of gas, it's not so frequent, but it's pretty often. Were down to lower gas production for El Mangrullo this quarter is around 19%. Should we expect peak gas production until CESA comes online in 2028?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Do you want to expect what again? Well, this is something that we still need to understand because, obviously, you're going to be feeding CESA with the most efficient as We already talked about that. He asked about the cooler placement after this ramp-up, this is specifically, how much are you placing Okay. Well, -- I mean, by the time we reach the peak product or the plateau production, we will be exporting 100% of the production. Until that, we are in a mixture between local market and export market because we are -- we don't have enough transportation capacity possibility of selling crude oil and the extra parity price. So we are selling an export parity price. Now we don't know whether that oil

Lida Wang

Analyst

think -- I guess he's asking that.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Where El Mangrullo will increase its production when CESA is online?

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

we have.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Works for, but can you ask -- can you tell us what is the actual strategy of the company? Where do you see more value?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

You're seeing we have already in total of the 3 segments of the company.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Oil and gas, what are the plans? We want more exposure to oil and gas. We already talked about on the main. [indiscernible] from and [indiscernible]. Says congratulations, Rincón de Aranda. And then he asks about the CapEx and the free cash flow guidance. locally and how much are exploring?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

of our own. So we are buying transportation capacity to third parties and those third parties to sell transportation capacity, but the is being exported or is being redirected into the local market. But economically speaking, if we were exporting.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

That is, I think, the main point to clarify, there is no difference today between the local price of crude vis-a-vis the export parity.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Yes. Actually, this quarter, we exported most.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Yes.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Another question is from [indiscernible] from Radico. We asks, recently, we've seen news were mentioning a potential slowdown in oil production growth in Argentina due to the financial equipment constraints.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

Financial...

Lida Wang

Analyst

And free equipment...

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

We'll have financial equipment number.

Lida Wang

Analyst

How does [indiscernible] view this trend?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

No, we are not slowing it up.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

No, it is not our case. But we do agree, and we do see that.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

There might be a reduction in the second half of 2025 of drilling and completion activity. There might be some reduction.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Actually, you forecast that before. You said it. It's not going to be...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

We said that the lubricant project was not going to be filled completely, and this is happening.

Lida Wang

Analyst

That forecast was accurate.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

He was agreed in terms of -- that is why we went forward with Rincón de Aranda, even without having secure transportation capacity, but we felt that was going to be spare capacity after the [indiscernible] came online.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Well, [indiscernible] is asking beyond the oil prices, what do you think it could be the potential factors of this slowdown in Vaca Muerta? No as hope, of course, but Vaca Muerta, why is it happening?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

There are some -- and this is just a personal view, but there are some companies that have go through a process of acquiring new blocks and those new blocks need to be developed, and it takes time to plan and to deploy that -- so maybe that's what's area, I would say, making a little bit low -- not so fast the slowing, the -- the increase in drilling and completion. They're still trying to ingest when they already acquired.

Lida Wang

Analyst

All right.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

And probably a lower Brent price is the speed of the growth is going to be slower. Argentina will continue growing extraction of oil probably at a lower -- at a lower state because of the lower price.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Edward [indiscernible] from Iowa, if you ask. Power generation, do you see an increase in the spot prices? Any change in your energy matrix? I guess what he's asking the spot prices is the increases so far in this scheme could it be higher than the inflation and devaluation. So far...

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

So far as the -- for the last 12 months or 1.5 years has been there have been dollar increases because of the peso prices have been increased above the devaluation of the exchange rate. Particularly this month, it happened the opposite. I don't expect any significant change going forward.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Then another question from Verra [indiscernible] which I don't remember working works for. But are you interested in the stake that the government wants to sell in Transener? Is there any priority or shareholders' agreement that for given that your controlling partner -- co-controlling partner?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

It's not an issue of shareholders' agreement. It's an issue of the low electricity lower in Argentina that restricted us from controlling the transmission. If you are either a power generator or a distributor, you cannot fully control the transmission. You can have co-control that is what we currently have, but we cannot go beyond that.

Lida Wang

Analyst

All right. Well, [indiscernible] from Santander. He has straight forward, any chance that Pampa negative?

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

No.

Lida Wang

Analyst

That's it. reached all the questions. Gus, Horacio, Fito, would you like to comment something else that we didn't cover in this very broad Q&A session.

Horacio Jorge Tomas Turri

Analyst

I don't think.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Nothing more.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Nothing more. Well, I expect us to -- our next call is in November. So I hope we have a better putting some [indiscernible] -- any questions you may have, please let us know, Raquel and I are fully there for you. have a good time. Bye. Thank you.