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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 20, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Petrobras webcast and conference call with analysts and investors concerning its fourth quarter 2019 results. We would like to inform you that participants will follow the transmission by Internet and telephone only as listeners. [Operator Instructions].Present with us today are Mr. Roberto Castello Branco, Petrobras' CEO; Mrs. Andrea Almeida, Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer; Mr. Carlos Alberto, Chief Exploration and Production Officer; Mrs. Anelise Quintao Lara, Chief Refining and Natural Gas Officer; Mr. Rudimar Andreis Lorenzatto, Chief Production Development Officer; Mr. Eberaldo de Almeida, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer; Mr. Nicolás Simone, Chief Digital Transformation and Innovation Officer; Mr. Roberto Furian Ardenghy, Chief Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Marcelo Zenkner, Chief Governance and Compliance Officer; as well as other company executives.We'll start by listening to Petrobras' CEO, Mr. Roberto Castello Branco, with the main highlights of the results. The presentation will remain available throughout the webcast and on the company's Investor Relations website.Please, Mr. Roberto, go ahead.

Roberto Castello Branco

Analyst

Thank you. It's very pleasant to have the opportunity to exchange ideas with you. Our top line performance was very good. The numbers are very clear. But we are in the oil business. Oil is a business with a long-term horizon, and so the strategy and the execution of the strategy is - are key. And our strategy, as you know very well, it's a very simple one based on 5 pillars, 5 because it's simple to always to remind the strategic goals.And second point is the execution. In 2019, we delivered what we promised in terms of strategic execution. We went ahead with portfolio management, divesting $16.3 billion of noncore assets, assets in which we are not the natural owners. On the other hand, we invested $27.4 billion in our core assets. And particularly, we invested in the acquisition of rights to explore and produce oil in ultra-deep waters with - especially, Búzios. Búzios is the largest offshore oilfield discovered in the world. It's a real world-class asset with significant reserves, low cost, low lifting costs, low risk as Petrobras is the best player in terms of understanding and knowing Búzios. Petrobras was awarded by the Offshore Technology Conference due to these projects to explore Búzios. So it's an example how deep is our knowledge about this giant oilfield. Also, it's an example how the portfolio can be managed very efficiently with the goal of creating value to shareholders.And at the same time, jointly with a strong cash flow generation, we're able to reduce debt. We paid about $24 billion in debt, reducing the - and this reduction combined with a very efficient corporate liability management.Petrobras was awarded as - by the LatinFinance with the best Corporate Liability Management Program. We economized $1.2 billion in interest. Petrobras had a…

Andrea Almeida

Analyst

Thanks, Roberto. I'm very happy to be here to share with you some results. And I think Roberto already mentioned the most important ones from the year, but I will go into more - maybe some into more detail. So regarding the operating cash flow, we were able in 2019 to reach $25.6 billion and free cash flow of $18.4 billion. Our EBITDA and net income had a solid performance of $32.7 billion and $10.2 billion, respectively, and we also managed to pay $2.5 billion to our shareholders.Our fourth quarter results were positively impacted by external factors, such as Brent and exchange rates. Brent price increased by 2%, and real depreciated by 4%. One of the greatest achievements of 2019 was the $24.5 billion reduction of our debt that reached $87.1 billion. Important to highlight that this amount includes $24 billion of the impacts that we got from IFRS 16 implementation.Our leverage, measured by net debt-to-EBITDA, reached 2.46x. Considering the IFRS 16, we know we moved already, but we still have a big challenge to reach the 2.5 net debt that is the goal for 2020. Despite the 9.5% drop in Brent prices, our recurring adjusted EBITDA increased 1%, reaching $34.1 billion in '19 due to lower production costs, lower contingencies and the impacts of IFRS 16 adoption.In a quarterly basis, our recurring adjusted EBITDA increased by 2%, reaching $9 billion on the fourth quarter due to lower production costs, the price appreciation of our oil streams and Brent prices. The highlight of the EBITDA by business segment is the growth of the E&P and Refining segments. In the Upstream, we had an increase of 9%, reaching $8.8 billion, mainly due to higher production and the recovery in Brent prices. In the Downstream segment, we had a strong increase of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Frank McGann, Bank of America.

Frank McGann

Analyst

I was wondering if - two things. One, on refining and the sales process that's ongoing now. If you could perhaps update us on what the latest is in terms of timing for the different phases of that process. And secondly, in terms of E&P and production levels for 2020, when do you expect that we'll really begin to see the effects of maintenance? Do you have any guidance you could provide in terms of which months are likely to see the most important levels of maintenance and what potential affects you would - we could see in those months? Anelise Quintão Lara: Regarding our divestment in the refining process, we are in the binding phase. It means that now, the potential buyers, they are evaluating the data information that they received about each refinery to make a binding proposal that we expect to receive by the second quarter of this year. We keep our expectation to have the SPA signed by the end of this year and to have the closing by the end of 2021 according to the antitrust authority, the document that we signed with Schahin.

Carlos Alberto

Analyst

Carlos Alberto speaking. About the maintenance effect that we are going to see on the production this year, last month, in January, we didn't see this effect yet. We produced almost the same thing that we have produced December last year, around 3 million barrels of equivalent per day. But now this month, we have started with the stoppage of some platforms, and we will start to see this effect. The effect will be mostly seen at the first semester of this year when we are going to do the - 2/3 of our stoppage - the number of the stoppages that we have planned for the year. So mostly, we are going to see the effect during - along this first semester. And we also see it beginning at this month, February.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. In terms of the number of platforms that are affected, how many are there? And what is the average time that each would come down for maintenance? With - obviously, I realize it's different for each one, but the average that the effects might be for each unit that's affected.

Carlos Alberto

Analyst

The platforms, the stoppages, they have arisen. On the average, we could think about 15 days as the ready figure for the stoppage. And number of platforms, it's - well, we will have 30 stoppages this year and 37 platforms.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim, Goldman Sachs.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

I have just a quick follow-up on oil production in Brazil. Your production reached near 2.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2019, while you are guiding for 2.2 million in 2020. So I just wanted to understand and try to extend, can this guidance be considered conservative, even in light of the reliability, safety and integrity maintenance activities you intend to perform and asset sales in 2019? As a reference, you overdelivered on your targets provided, indeed, last year by roughly 4%. So is it fair to think this new guidance as a conservative forecast or not?

Carlos Alberto

Analyst

No, we don't think it's conservative. In fact, what we do is that we have made an extensive analysis of risks and looking what we have faced at last year, also the years before. And we decided to include it in our production because now we are very well just at the beginning of the year, but some things can happen along the year. And when we look back to the past and see what happens, so we decided that we should include this - the things that generally are disruptive in our analysis of risk of our production.So we have this - we have considered this 200,000 barrels per day in our figure for the year 2020, and it has to do with the integrity, safety and reliability of our systems. And in this figure, we - if we can split all the factors that contribute to this 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, less on the production, we could split as 40%. That has to do with the - what we call the SSCC CO2, the cracking corrosion factor of - based on the CO2 on the - for the - it has to do with the inspection and maintenance of the pipelines. It's around 40%. 40% is - has to do with the production stoppage on the pre-salt platforms, and 20% has to do with the production stoppage that we will have on the post-salt platforms. And we also related this 20% to the agreement that we have made with Ibama and - where we have to put some injection water plants on the platforms.So it's split on this - in this factor. But going back and going straight to your question, we will - we still think that we - that the production - or the target of production that we have set for the year 2020 is correct. We will see what is happening during the year. For sure, we have a very good production at the beginning of the year, although we don't - we have already sold the Tartaruga Verde - 50% of the Tartaruga Verde and also the assets that we have in Nigeria, but we have to wait. But so far, we think that the figure is very, very good, what we have said.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

And just a very quick follow-up. So I guess, you do maintenance every year, right? So can you please confirm this 200,000 barrels is on top of what you usually do in terms of maintenance? Or is it the total maintenance impact you expect for the year, including what you would usually do in, let's say, a normal year?

Carlos Alberto

Analyst

No, it's also included. It's all included. In the target for the - to the year 2020, we included all the maintenance that we have for the year.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Okay. And then how - can you give us an idea of how much is the usual impact of maintenance on production? I understand this year, maintenance will impact production to a greater extent than what's the usual number. So usually, how do - how does this 200,000 number look like in a regular year, let's say?

Carlos Alberto

Analyst

For the year 2020, it's what I mentioned. 40% of the figure, 200,000 barrels per day, would be - is due to the maintenance of the pre-salt platforms, and 20% related to the maintenance of the post-salt platform. So we could consider something like 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the year 2020. That's the figure related to the maintenance of the platforms.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew De Luca, Barclays.

Andrew De Luca

Analyst

I wanted to ask on LME. So there was some interesting color you guys provided on the Portuguese call. You mentioned that you're looking to reduce the cost of funding to about 5% from where you are at a little bit under 6% at the end of the quarter. But at the same time, if we look at the last transactions you've done in the market, there's been some reluctance from bondholders to tender bonds just because how comfortable they are with the company's trajectory. So if I'm not mistaken, you mentioned on the Portuguese call you're looking at creative ways to reduce your debt and maybe increase these participation rates for future LME transaction. Is there any color you could provide from the comments that you provided on the Portuguese call and maybe any sense of timing for these transactions?

Andrea Almeida

Analyst

So we will have to be creative for the reasons you just mentioned. Our - now it's hard. Nobody wants to sell us back the bonds that they have a high return. And definitely, now we will be issuing a lower yield to maturities. That's the reality of Petrobras moving forward. So when I say we will have to be creative is we will have to give investors something different, maybe a more liquid bond and buy back with some cash. We'll have to - or maybe to explore a window of time and always giving the bond that is like closer to the maturity that the bondholder has.It's hard to tell you when those things are going to happen because those things are totally related to the windows of opportunities that we have in the capital markets. What I can tell you is, right now, it has been amazing, liquid, the market at the beginning of the year. So there is opportunities right now, but I'm not saying we will do something right now. We're just saying that the beginning of the year has been really positive for people issuing new transactions with very low, I would say, yields compared to the past.We will explore those opportunities, but it's not just about capital markets. It's about renegotiating the debt that we have in the bilaterals, and this is everyday work. So we already did some this year, and we will keep doing that. So the bilaterals that we have flexibility to buy back, we'll be always negotiating them to reduce increased terms and reduce the amount outstanding, reduce the interest on them and increase the maturities on them. It's going to be our work, I would say, in the next two years. Forever, maybe.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Muhammed Ghulam, Raymond James.

Muhammed Ghulam

Analyst

So several of the large global integrated oil and gas companies have recently made pretty ambitious announcements regarding the reduction of carbon emissions, some of them even going as far as targeting net 0 emissions. Can you talk about any specific goals you guys might have? And can we expect a similar announcement from you guys in the foreseeable future?

Roberto Castello Branco

Analyst

Thanks for your question. If you want, I can announce now that Petrobras will have zero emissions by 2050. I won't be here and you won't be there. So I can - any announcement for 2050. But let's go to the real world. Let's be frank. First, we are not investing in renewables right now because we are very humble guys. We don't have the competence to thrive in this type of business. It is different from oil. In oil, we are the best. But we are not going to lose money just because European companies are doing so and so.We have 10 commitments to sustainability. 0 growth in absolute operating emissions until 2025. I hope I'll be alive - still alive in 2025. Perhaps not as CEO of Petrobras, but Petrobras will be here and you continue to be in the financial industry. 0 routine flaring by 2030. And we are committed also to carbon capture. We have a story of carbon capture. Our goal is 40 million tonnes of CO rejection by 2025 and 32% reduction in carbon intensity in the Upstream segment by 2025. So there is a list of 10 commitments. You can find it in our presentation of - for the announcement of the strategic plan for - in the Petrobras Day 2019. We made this presentation at the NYSE and London as well.And last, but not least, I'd like to tell you that Petrobras, in terms of carbon emission by barrel of oil, is second only to Equinor in the global oil and gas industry. That's it. And regarding renewables, we are investing in research and development, trying to acquire the competencies for - in the future. If you go for this business, we will go to win, not to lose.

Operator

Operator

At this time, the Q&A session of Petrobras webcast and conference call is over. Mr. Roberto Castello Branco will now make his final remarks. Please go ahead.

Roberto Castello Branco

Analyst

I'd like to thank you for attending our conference call. It's always a good opportunity to exchange idea, to hear your questions, to have the opportunity to be more transparent. Transparency is one of our goals. It's very - it's key to the reduction of cost of capital and we'll be very open to your questions at any time. We - you're very welcome to our offices. So we organized this to one of our operations this year.And my message is that we are strongly committed to make Petrobras a much better company. Our goal is to become the best energy company focused in oil and gas in terms of value creation to shareholders in the world. So thank you for your attendance.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The audio of this conference call for replay will be available on Petrobras Investor Relations website at www.petrobras.com.br/ir. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a great day.