Caroline D. Dorsa
Analyst · Travis Miller with Morningstar
Thanks for your question. I'm glad you asked it because I think one of the things that we've been talking a lot about is the fact that when you think about migration and its impact on our earnings, you have to think about 2 parts. Not just the amount of migration or how many customers have moved, but in fact, what that cost you. What is the difference in what they pay if they're in BGS versus if they are not on BGS. So in prior years, that difference, which we call the headroom, has been a relatively larger number. It's that much larger than it is today, and that was the result of the fact that BGS prices were still coming off higher levels and there was also still a summer premium, which now is actually only one of the remaining years of BGS prices, as well as lower prices in the market. So, that differential was bigger. And when you have a bigger differential, then as you lose the customer or you lose a customer or a group of customers, that cost you dollars for each customer that leaves. The reason that I said that the migration amounts that we have this year, quarter-over-quarter in fact, don't result in any EPS quarter-over-quarter comparisons, is that while you still have some incremental customers moving, and we saw that move from about 26% to about 33%, the headroom is so much lower than it was. It's lower than last year and in fact, it's only about 1/4 of the level it was when we first saw migration really take hold in the summer of 2009. So what happens is, when you have an incremental amount of customers moving but in fact, every customer, including those who have already left you cost you less and you run out the math, sort of a price x quantity if you will, we end up now in the circumstance with a slowing level of migration on top of a lower headroom amount for everyone who's migrated, leading to 0 impact quarter-over-quarter. You might think of this in a sense in the extreme. If you had a 0 headroom, if the prices effectively converged, we would be indifferent as to where the customers were because the impact for us would be the same in terms of dollars. So we watched the headroom come down. It means, every customer, if you will, is worth less on a differential basis, and that's why I wouldn't use the estimates we had given in past years because they are related to past levels of headroom.