Earnings Labs

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, May 2, 2012

$79.40

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, May 2, 2012, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 p.m., May 2, 2012 to May 16, 2012. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.

Kathleen A. Lally

Analyst · Travis Miller

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for participating in our call this morning. As you are aware, we released our first quarter 2012 earnings statements earlier this morning. The release and attachments are posted on our website at www.pseg.com under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2012 is expected to be filed shortly. I won't go through the full disclaimer statements or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but as you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes, unless required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2012 of $0.85 per share, which equaled the operating earnings from 2011's first quarter. Our results for the first quarter are strong in the face of a continued sharp decline in the price of natural gas and a very mild winter. The date indicates that the first quarter of 2012 was the warmest since 1970, and that March of 2012 tied March of 1945 in terms of average temperature as the mildest March since 1895. Let me remind you, that this is the earliest the national weather service began keeping records. And if you can follow all those years, that basically says this is the tie for first as the warmest March in history. So our results were very strong in the face of these headwinds. In a few minutes, Caroline will review our earnings in greater detail. At the end of the call, you will have an understanding of our first quarter and outlook and how we've been able to report better-than-expected earnings. As always, our competitiveness is greatly aided by our employees, who continued to perform at the top of their profession. At PSEG Power, this was exhibited in the quarter by our Fossil employees, who took cost control to a new level. The alignment of expenses with operations demonstrates their understanding of the need to control costs in the current price environment. The focus on operating efficiency and the increased availability from our combined cycle assets positions us well in the power markets. Turning my attention to the utility. PSE&G's execution on its capital investment program, as it maintains a focus on meeting needs of its customers, is providing a growing source of earnings.…

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2012 of $0.85 per share versus operating earnings of $0.85 per share in last year's first quarter. Slide 4 provides a reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter. I'm sure you've noted the impact of taxes on our results and I will discuss these impacts, which relate to significant closure of 10 years of tax audits as we go through the numbers. As you can see on Slide 8, the contribution from PSE&G and Power to the quarter's operating earnings were similar. For the quarter, PSE&G reported operating earnings of $0.39 per share, compared with $0.32 per share last year. Power reported operating earnings of $0.39 per share compared with $0.53 per share last year. PSEG Energy Holdings and Enterprise, or the parent, together contribute operating earnings of $0.07 per share compared with operating earnings of less than a $0.01 per share during the first quarter of 2011. So now I'll review each company in more detail, starting with Power. As I just said, PSEG Power recorded operating earnings of $0.39 per share for the quarter of 2012 compared with operating earnings of $0.53 for the first quarter of 2011. Power's results in the first quarter were affected primarily by low gas prices, a very mild winter weather compared with more normal weather in the year-ago quarter, and a decline in realized energy and capacity prices. The output from Power's fleet declined 6.3% in the quarter. The reduction in output was heavily influenced by a lack of a normal winter, which Ralph just spoke about. Heating degree days, if you followed them, were approximately 21% below normal in the quarter and versus the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Jefferies. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Just to clarify then, when you originally gave guidance for 2012, you were expecting the tax benefits to be roughly $0.14 per share, so that was already incorporated into the original guidance that you gave for this year, right?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Jefferies

So let me just clarify how to think about that relative to guidance. So as I mentioned when we talked about the holdings and enterprise guidance, as you may recall, when we gave that guidance it was higher than the guidance we've given in the prior year even though we've done some things obviously to terminate some leases. So that was effectively reflecting a range of our expectations of possible overall settlements with the IRS for the tax years including LILO/SILO and everything else in that period. Related to the remainder that I talked about related to PSE&G, which is where most of the rest of the tax related events occurred. We forecast a range of things for many things whether it's tax or O&M, certainly, we had some thoughts relative to where things stood with the 10 years of open audits, but I would say you should think about it not as explicitly incorporating a particular number. It's really a range of things as we think about tax versus anything else and keep in mind when you go into PSE&G's numbers, that $0.06 that ended up occurring for PSE&G for taxes, $0.03 of that if it hadn't happened for tax, would have been there for you through the weather normalization clause. So one just substitutes for the other for the same bottom-line. So when I pull that apart, I look at Enterprise and Holdings and say there was a range of what we hopefully would see in the final tax settlement. When you go into PSE&G, $0.03 of those $0.06 would have been there with weather normalization, so you're really only looking at what we were trying to range around $0.03, maybe a little less as we were thinking about guidance that was different from what you would've expected. We're actually quite happy, frankly, to have 10 years of audits closed at this point and earlier in the year than we thought it might have occurred. Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And my second question would be just based on the types of margins that we've seen out of New England and New York recently, is the company current -- should we assume that the company is currently losing money on the New York and the New England investments?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Jefferies

Carol and I are staring at each other, Paul. No, that's not the case.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Dan Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Just to make sure I understand the weather normalization correctly. It affects the first quarter results, do they look at a full-year number also so that if you're under-earning over the course of the year, maybe some of that tax benefit gets spread out over more quarters or is it just a quarter-specific adjustment and the $0.03 of loss tax benefit is effectively lost for good?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse

Right. So let me just describe a little bit how the weather normalization clause works, Dan. The weather normalization clause looks at the earnings over a winter season. So it starts late in the prior year and goes through May of this year. And so what you look at is the total amount of how the weather is in terms of being above or below normal and then you either accrue if you are below normal in terms of what your earnings would be, in other words, if it's warmer than normal, or you defer recognition if you've collected in excess if the weather is significantly colder than normal. And so, when you look at that, you look at it over a period, over a season, and you true up as you go through the season, which starts in October of the prior year and go through May of the current year. So as we've looked at what we were accruing relative to weather normalization, we were accruing a little bit. We have accrued a little bit under the weather normalization clause to date during the season, because the weather has been milder than normal all the way through the winter season starting in October. So we've accrued a few pennies year-to-date through the weather normalization clause. Now, because we have the tax settlement, it would -- basically it did not allow us to accrue all of the amount we would've been able to accrue because the first quarter was so warm. There was a little bit of accrual that occurred late last year, a little bit of accrual, but not as much as we would've otherwise been able to accrue because the weather was so warm. The other piece to keep in mind, that I mentioned in my remarks,…

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse

Yes. So we certainly have plenty of coal onsite and offsite storage. You may recall, we restructured the Adaro contract last year so that it no longer has a fixed commitment. It is a calculated price, which will always be effectively a little bit below market that goes out through 2016, but we no longer have a penalty for canceling shipment so we no longer have to actually take coal. We do have some purchase commitments for coal and related transportation that go through 2013, and we're in the process of trying to renegotiate some of those. Dan Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Is there going to be -- should we -- you look out at the curb, is this the right expectation both from a cost structure perspective, the costs you've taken out from the coal fleet and the dispatch perspective for the rest of this year and maybe '13 as you look out?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse

So we've tried to give the total generation numbers for '13, Dan. I think what Caroline tried to play out before is that the $0.04 that we had in Q1, we should not think of that as $0.16 for the year, but by the same token, it wasn't all $0.04 of timing and we think we'll be able to retain most, if not, all of those savings.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse

And of course, folks have been looking out, as they think about the longer term, in terms of trying to make permanent, somebody's kinds of operational changes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

You had a good development on Susquehanna-Roseland with the Park Service recent development. In your mind, does that put the degree of risk that the project won't meet targeted timing at a very low risk level? How do you think about sort of execution risk now that you continue to make more progress there?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

So we've posted to PJM that we expect the in service date to be June of 2015 and throughout that posting, we anticipate the Parks Department's decision of October of this year. So we still look to be on track to that, Steven. If that permit is delayed, any significant amount of time at that point, we would revisit the in-service date. But right, now all systems are the same as they've been for probably the better part of the last 6 to 9 months or so.

Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. And just going back to -- I know there's been a couple of questions on the coal units. As I think about Hudson and Mercer, we've seen other companies thinking about just the economic viability of some of the coal units and I'm just curious what those units, the dispatch is obviously currently very low with low gas and low demand through the wintertime. Is there a situation under which those units would be considered not economically viable and shut down candidates, or is that relatively unlikely under sort of any scenario that you can think of?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

I think that you never say never, right? Because there's always some sort of business one can envision. However, we've always benefited from fuel diversity. The CapEx at those units is behind us. Still, we're pretty confident that given a return of normal demand, which was anything but the last 6 months, and some modest cooperation of prices that those units will be quite ready, willing and available to meet the needs of the customers in this space.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

And as I said, in different periods of when they run, this quarter, although it hasn't been very often, because they have the fuel flexibility, they can run on gas and gas is more economic to run on than coal, so that gives us even a little more than you would have with a normal coal unit.

Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

Okay, so I guess the capacity factor was 2% for the New Jersey coal and gas units?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

Yes, it's pretty low. Remember, there was no demand from this such unusually mild winter.

Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

Okay, understood. And just lastly, just anything new in terms of the ATDD units in terms of discussions with regulators or otherwise?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley

Sure. So relative to those units, I think you remember because we've talked about that and given out that information relative to having given some notice for some of the units that we plan to retire, which we talked about, about 400 megawatts. For the remainder of the megawatts, which you may recall we've talked about and we've given the data on, there's about 1,200 megawatts that are water injected and another 400 megawatts that we also identified on older peakers. We continue to evaluate them. We really haven't nothing more to say relative to we're thinking about them, what we said before. We continue to look at alternatives for those units but nothing else to signal at this point.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Just on the mark-to-market of about $52 million, is that going to be -- I mean, will that be realized in 2012 or will some of that show up next year? How should we think about that gain?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Sure. So you're talking about the mark-to-market in the reconciliation page, right? Related --

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Right, on Page 11, Slide 11.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Forward positions, right. So that will be realized over time in our numbers, and keep in mind we factor that in as we think about the net effect of our hedges as they roll off in '12 and '13. So you've got piece of that rolling off in '12 and a small piece of it rolling off in '13. Most of it rolls off in '12 but keep in mind, it's embedded in our numbers because it reflects the market value of our hedges. Given where the market prices are at this point in time, that changes as you've seen it change in various quarters as the market prices change. Eventually, those hedges mature, they come out and sort of get zeroed out of the mark-to-market and come above the line.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Sure. And then with respect to this market monitor filing yesterday, basically asking that the MOPR test be applied differently than a generator, they don't -- an unnamed generator. It mentions that if they don't get a response by FERC by the 11th, that they might delay the auction results. Or they might request that the auction results are delayed. What is your sense about the timing of something like this having -- just any sense perceivably about how quickly FERC might actually act on this?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Paul Patterson

All we're aware of is that, as you know in RPM, there are a series of exemptions for very different types of technologies in terms of MOPR requirements, solar, wind. And what I think is in play now is a question regarding fuel cells, which are going to be a tiny, tiny portion of what RPM is all about. So I am unaware of any desire to delay RPM results for the possibility that a couple of megawatts of fuel cells may want to bid in. But we'll find out soon after this call. There's nothing different that's occurred there.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst · Paul Patterson

And then finally on the sales growth weather adjusted of 1.9% decline. You mentioned that obviously, with the weather, it's a kind of tricky business. Could you give us any sense as to just sort of if you could elaborate a little bit on what you're seeing. Is that weather normalized demand and just whether or not the leap year is in that 1.9% decline or not?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Paul Patterson

So relative to the weather normalized demand, and as we always say, it's a little more art than science. It appears from what we see that the decline in the weather normalized demand on the electric side was driven a little bit more by the commercial and the industrial relative to the residential and sometimes that moves around. Obviously, difficult employment situation in difficult economic situation and Jersey might not be that much of a surprise. Not as much by the residential, which was less than a percentage point weather normalized. So it's really more of what you see what's going on with C&I. And then on the gas side of course, it wasn't that much weather normalized.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC

Analyst · Paul Patterson

Yes. But is there a leap year impact in there or does that include the impact of the leap year or should we exclude -- I mean, should we back that out of the number?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Paul Patterson

The total number of kilowatt hours of therms usually include the leap year just because it has the extra day. Didn't do the math to back that out and I'm not sure that would be really significant but it would be the total amount.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Leslie Rich.

Leslie Rich - J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.

Analyst · Leslie Rich

I just had a question, Carolyn, on the IRS refund. You said $170 million, did you receive that yet or that's expected later this year or not until April of next year?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Leslie Rich

So, no, we haven't received it yet, just to be direct on that. We have not received it yet, we just finalized the settlement, and I think we've talked about this before when we were talking about things like LILO/SILO. But of course now, we have everything, LILO/SILO together with all the 10 years of tax audits. The number I cited is net, so that is the net of the refund for the 10 years of tax audits plus the incremental effect of having settled LILO/SILO for all years, which means it goes beyond 2006. It's LILO/SILO all the way through the lease terminations of 2010. So what we're in the process of working on right now with the IRS is to, if you will, kind of effectively net, although it won't all be in 1 number, effectively net the fact that we've got some -- we've got audit related settlements for all issues for 10 years, plus the pull-through if you will, of LILO/SILO for the remaining 4 years after that. And when I talk about the $170 million, I'm talking about the net impact of all of those things. Since the IRS has not audited all the years through 2010, what we're working on is have them effectively sort of break out LILO/SILO because remember, we terminated a whole bunch, all of our leases, right, in '09 and '10. And those leases, we paid those termination payments based on the receipts from the counter parties. So now that we're settling LILO/SILO, some of those payments for terminations need to come back to us. So for the long-winded way of saying, it's not a single dollar amount in 1 check that we expect to get but we're working on trying to get them to accelerate finishing all the things they need to do to recognize the refund that they owe us on the terminations and I would hope to be able to have all of that done and have the net number in our hands either this year or early next year.

Leslie Rich - J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.

Analyst · Leslie Rich

And then are other -- any other pieces remaining to be resolved in terms of lease terminations or anything else?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Leslie Rich

No. In fact, what we did with the IRS is what I characterize as 2 separate settlements. One was the settlement of the audit years, 1997 through 2006 for everything for the enterprise. There was a separate and distinct settlement that settled and finalized the treatment of LILO/SILO-related leases for every year that they appear in our tax returns, all the way out through the end of the termination. So there on LILO/SILO, absolutely nothing and that is in dispute now with the IRS.

Leslie Rich - J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.

Analyst · Leslie Rich

Okay. And then just finally on Hudson, what kind of heat rate do you have on that plant when you're running it as a gas plant?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Leslie Rich

Including about '10 and '11, it's about a half turn on heat rate loss when you run the coal plant on gas.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Leslie Rich

Alvis, before we go to the next question, I just -- thinking out loud, Paul Patterson, your question about MOPR and complaint by Joe Bower [ph], the only other thing we can think of is that it is possible that several people have been filing requests for below MOPR treatment. In particular, those beneficiaries of the standard offer contract agreements under LCAPP and we're not proving to any specific information on whether or not they were granted below MOPR prices and perhaps that could be part of what is being debated at FERC. But we don't have any more information on that at this point in time. In addition to the fuel cell, which we do have information on.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Bank of America.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

That is the issue by the way that something was -- the market monitor filed something last night to FERC regarding a agreement with one of the parties on that. So that's I think, what Paul was referring to. But I actually don't have a question on that. I have a question on your CCGT capacity factors. I'm actually a little surprised that they are not higher. We've seen a number of PJM-based CCGT's into the like 70s and 80s this quarter on capacity factor and I'm just curious, is that a function of basis issues our congestion issues, is that a function of being more in the East or what -- why didn't it actually move more?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

I think it's because there was just no demand, Steve. We were seeing days where nukes were carrying the whole load without any problems.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Okay. Because, I mean, that obviously was the same issue in Western PJM and we're seeing them in the 70s and 80s. So maybe just different market because there's more gas and less coal in your area.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

And also, we have a higher percentage of nukes in our area and we do have a higher percentage of gas. I think both of those were conspired to give the mid-50s number that we see versus what you're seeing elsewhere.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Okay. And then also, curious what you're seeing on basis in PJM, both this quarter and for the -- on the forward curves.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

So I think in this quarter, we have seen some negative basis but the fourth curve is showing more $3 to $4, which is lower than we'd seen to start.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Right.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Which is lower than we've seen historically.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Right.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Positive $3 or $4?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Positive $3, right. Both on average days as Ralph said, workings were negative and of course that relates, specifically what was going with demand with the warm weather, but we continue to think about the low levels of positive basis in the forecast period.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

And one other question. We did see that the commission, I guess, finally approved a surcharge for the water utilities. It might have just been yesterday.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Yes it was.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Right.

Steven I. Fleishman - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

Is there -- are you starting to -- is there any movement already to look at doing that on gas and electric?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Bank of America

So the answer to that is yes and I believe 1 New Jersey gas utility has already put in a filing and we think the combination of what took place with water and how the staff is viewing the other filing that coming from the gas utility has allowed us to have conversations with the staff prior to submitting our filing about the types of things they like and would rather -- and as well as the types of things that they would rather not see into a filing. So I would describe what you're seeing as progress in terms of infrastructure clauses and we're factoring all that into our preparation for our own filing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

Just to go over the year's tax items. Is it fair to assume we should not expect any more of these items for the remaining 3 quarters in your assumptions for the year?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

Sure, Ashar, yes. So as I mentioned, we settled 10 years of tax audits and also the LILO/SILO matter. That's the entirety of what you should expect us to settle in terms of IRS audits for the year. You know they've been outstanding for quite a while so when I gave the expectations for the full year effective tax rate to be about 37% to 38% for Enterprise, think of it as including the impact of everything recognized this first quarter for all the audit settlements bringing us to 30% with the subsequent 3 quarters being a more normal tax rate, which for us, is running the range of 40.5% to 41%, that's where you get the weighted average effect. But you're correct, there's nothing else to assume that would be unusual or different for tax for the rest of the year. It's really just because all the audits landed in this quarter.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

And then the way you described the gas thing, the way that you kind of mentioned is that out of the $0.06, we can really look at $0.03 as being normal, right? Because if you hadn't had that, your gas earnings would have been higher by $0.03 anyway. Do you get a chance to get the remaining $0.03 as well as the year goes along, or is $0.03 the maximum that you could have earned under the clause on a normalized basis, which got impacted by this $0.06?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

Right. So let me just repeat that because I think you haven't obviously have the $0.03 right. Let me just identify how I would characterize it. The $0.03 that we got for tax that relates to gas effectively substituted for $0.03 that you would have seen, using this pre-tax equivalent in the gross margin line for gas. The bottom line operating earnings for the gas business is the same in this quarter as they would've been if we hadn't had the IRS settlement. You would've just had a different geographies if you will, on the P&L. You would have had the pretax equivalent of $0.03 on the gas weather normalization clause in margin. Instead, you have a lower margin in gas than you would otherwise have. You have a tax benefit and you have the very same bottom line operating earnings for the Gas business, whether we had the settlement or we didn't have the settlement. So that's the way I would encourage you to think about it. In terms of was there more that we could otherwise do, that's not related at all to tax. That's related to the gas business and having its overall earnings tax for 10.3%. And so, when you bump up against that 10.3%%, whether you have a little bit of warmer weather then you wouldn't be able to book anymore. So we've booked the maximum up to 10.3% now. It just happened in this quarter, that instead of booking it the way you would normally expect us to book it, which is on the gross margin line, we book it through the tax line. But the bottom line effect is the same for the operating earnings for the business for this quarter.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

Okay and if I can just end up that discussion, so as we look up for comparability purposes going forward this year going to next, can we say like about $0.10 of this tax is something which would not repeat itself going forward into the next fiscal year?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Ashar Khan with Visium

Yes. So I'd say -- and this, Ashar, one way to think about it is the Holdings and Enterprise, that total $39 million for this quarter, is effectively the result of the 10-year audit settlements. And as I said, obviously, we don't settle audits like that all the time. So I would think of that as things that you would necessarily -- you wouldn't see us having in Enterprise and Holdings guidance for the subsequent year. Related to PSE&G, as I said, $0.03 of what happened for tax would otherwise be substituted for by gas weather normalization and then you've got about this $0.03 that was everything else for PSE&G for the 10 years of tax, which again, you wouldn't think of in the subsequent years because we wouldn't be guiding to assume tax audit settlements.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kit Konolige with Konolige Research.

Kit Konolige - Konolige Research, LLC

Analyst · Kit Konolige with Konolige Research

So you were -- I wanted, Caroline, to review. You talked a little bit about the O&M savings that we were seeing at Power and I didn't quite catch your reference. Should we -- did you say that we shouldn't expect this level of O&M savings going forward?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Kit Konolige with Konolige Research

Sure, Kit. So what I said on the remarks was we have $0.04 savings on a quarter-over-quarter basis for Power's O&M. But of course, we have things like timing. So for example, of course how quicker than this outage right now and of course there's incremental spend when there are things like outages. So what I was signaling was you wouldn't expect to see us having O&M savings quarter-over-quarter of the extent to which we had in the first quarter, but our target is to have most of the $0.04 savings that we saw in this quarter carry through on a full-year basis, to be better than our prior expectations. But you're not going to see $0.03, $0.04 kind of savings every quarter through the year. So the target is, we have $0.04 I'm going to keep most of it as we go from a full-year basis, but don't assume that replication every quarter.

Kit Konolige - Konolige Research, LLC

Analyst · Kit Konolige with Konolige Research

And can -- did you revise your thinking at all as a result of this level of O&M savings in the quarter for how you're tracking for the year on overall profitability, given market conditions at Power?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Kit Konolige with Konolige Research

So we haven't changed anything relative to our expectations for the full year, if that's where you're going. I think if you think about the other things that we just talked about in terms of lower generation given the weather and low gas prices, kind of extraordinarily low gas prices. I think it's too soon being in the first quarter and obviously, coming into the shoulder season and before the Summer, to change any full-year expectations at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie.

Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

I wanted to ask a question about the head rule. You mentioned that you're still actually considering your options with regards to any CapEx spending. I find it a little bit surprising given the fact that we have the PJM capacity auction next week. Wouldn't you be actually bidding some of this CapEx into the auction?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

So, Angie, you're actually right, the auction is next week so we're not going to comment on what we are on bidding, what we might bid as a CapEx improvement for environmental reasons or what we might do otherwise. It's just a highly competitive auction and we'll all know what the outcome is in 16 days.

Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

Secondly, the price, the hedged price for your 2014 output has come down even though the percentage hasn't changed and the output, the projected output hasn't changed. What happened there?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

So in the hedge price for 2014, keep in mind that when we put together the hedge prices for each of the periods, they include both BGS and non-BGS. And you may recall, we've talked about before that when we put the hedge prices in for BGS, we take the full BGS price, we exclude capacity since we talk about capacity separately. And then the remainder of the BGS price, including some of the things that are essentially cost pass-throughs like transmission and green as well as premium, which is not a cost pass through, coming to that hedge price calculation. When we put in other like flat lock and West Hub hedges, they go in primarily just at an energy price. So in 2014, if you're recalling, what we had last quarter when we talked about the 2014 hedges, were at about $57 versus $55. At that point, having just come out of BGS and having not done very hedging for 2014, BGS was coming close to about 70% of that total number of hedges for 2014. Now that we've layered on some additional, if you go back and look at our numbers last year's first quarter, you can see exactly the same pattern. Now that the BGS is essentially done for the year in terms of its effect on 2014, you layer in other hedges that are West Hub, flat lock type hedges and you'll naturally see that number come down because the new hedges that go in don't have the BGS cost pass-throughs in them. So BGS has come down to be just a little more than 1/2 of that number now versus 70% and everything that comes in normally as you would expect, comes in at a net lower price than BGS. So that's all that's going on there, nothing sort of disorienting in terms of market price, just a normal weighted average mix of BGS with everything else.

Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

But using that rationale, wouldn't you see an increase in the percentage of output hedge?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

Yes, so remember we're talking about a range here of the 20% to 25%. And so you're going from being at the lower end with the higher end still within the range because there's very little that's -- we're still in low numbers for 2014's hedges.

Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

And then the last question, what is the normal -- what are the normalized sales growth embedded in your utility assumptions for this year?

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Angie Storozynski with Macquarie

So we typically assume normal weather and then for overall growth, boy, it's really pretty small. It's just slightly less than 1% on the weather normalized basis, consistent with, if you look at long-term forecast, for example, from PJM as part of the RTEP, they took that down this year to be less than 1% if I recall correctly, it's like 0.8%. We typically follow those sorts of guidelines for our weather normalized forecast.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Travis Miller

I wanted to go back to the earned ROE at PSE&G. Apart from that tax and the weather normalization at Gas, are there other areas where you're outperforming and thus [Audio Gap] earning higher ROE's than you'd expect?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Travis Miller

No but we would encourage you, Travis, to realize that the utility is regulated at the 10.3% on the distribution side and 11.68% in general for formula rates on the transmission side with a couple of exceptions. Those exceptions being the Susquehanna-Roseland line, which I think is 150 basis points on top of that, and the Northeast Grid project, which is 125 basis points on top of it. So if you do the weighted averaging, it will all add up. So if transmission comes out to be north of 11.68% and distribution stays at that 10.3%.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Travis Miller

And then all that net gets to a 10.3%...

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Travis Miller

No. See, if you do 11.68% for transmission, I think transmission is about a 1/3 or 40% of the rate base nowadays and then you, then weight the distribution so it's in the 10.3%.

Caroline D. Dorsa

Analyst · Travis Miller

Right and then the transmission --

Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Travis Miller

So on distribution side, is there anything other than that tax issue that helps you earn that 10.3% right now?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Travis Miller

I mean, yes a pretty good cost control and a fair regulatory treatment on capital recovery for expanded distribution programs that we have underway allow us to sustain near that 10.3%.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Travis Miller

How are we thinking about next rate case timing given that you've done a good job earning that allowed ROE?

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Travis Miller

We don't forecast far into the future but you won't hear anything about that between now and the next call, I can guarantee you that for sure. We don't see it in the near term.

Kathleen A. Lally

Analyst · Travis Miller

Thank you, operator. I think with that we'll conclude the call and I'm going to turn it over to Ralph for some concluding remarks.

Ralph Izzo

Analyst · Travis Miller

So we talked a lot about taxes understandably, so and trying to understand the weather normalization clause. But I hope through all that, what you've seen is a very strong quarter and presumably, it speaks for itself, particularly in light of the headwinds that we've seen. I often take these opportunities to highlight the performance of our employees but I must give special recognition to our Fossil team. Not just for the last quarter but the last few years. These are a group of folks who have broadened our back end technologies, a well over $1 billion capital program on schedule and on budget, something we don't highlight. That have also put in 400 megawatts of peakers not only on budget but a year ahead of schedule for one of those peakers. And the adjusted O&M numbers this quarter to complicate for what's been going on in the marketplace as Caroline has mentioned, contributing $0.04 most of which, we expect to hold onto. It's just a superb job by our folks in the Fossil organization. So thank you, to everyone who's on the call, for joining us today and hopefully, we'll see you all soon at the various venues that we expect to be attending. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.