Terrance J. Lillis
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Larry. As Larry mentioned, normalized third quarter earnings were solid. This morning, I'll focus my comments on: operating earnings and the impact of our actuarial assumption review; net income, including continued solid performance in the investment portfolio; and the strength of our capital position and balance sheet. Looking at Slide 7, you'll see the impact of our actuarial assumption review had on our third quarter operating earnings. In addition to lowering our long-term interest rate assumption by 50 basis points, we updated assumptions around lapses and deposits and made other model enhancements. Combined, these changes reduced total company operating earnings by $91 million or approximately $0.30 per share. This was slightly higher than our estimated range communicated at Investor Day, primarily due to finalization of our Individual Life and Principal International reviews. On an adjusted basis, third quarter 2012 earnings per share were up 10% over the year-ago quarter, reflecting strong execution. Additionally, adjusted return on equity excluding other comprehensive income was 10.2%. Looking forward, we expect 50 to 80 basis points of annual return on equity accretion. In addition, we should benefit from Cuprum once it is fully integrated. Now I'll discuss business unit results. Slide 8 is the same shown in Investor Days. It summarizes the revenue metrics we use for each of our businesses. And as John mentioned, these will provide greater clarity for earnings growth by business unit going forward. Turning to Slide 9 on Retirement and Investor Services, our accumulation businesses had net revenue growth of 9%. On an adjusted basis, operating earnings grew 11% in third quarter 2012 compared to the year-ago quarter. Strong growth in account values was driven by positive net cash flows and asset appreciation. This helped grow net revenues but was partially offset by continued pressure on fees. For full year 2012, we expect Retirement Investor Service accumulation businesses' net revenue to grow between 4% and 6%. Full service accumulation adjusted operating earnings of $75 million were up 8% over the year-ago quarter on 6% growth in net revenue. Pretax return on net revenue is 29% on a trailing 12-month basis. The underlying fundamentals within full service accumulation continue to be strong. The sales pipeline continues to build, and close ratios continue to improve. In addition, recurring deposits are up 9% year-to-date, reflecting growth in eligible participants due to strong sales and retention, as well as success of our worksite counselors in increasing participation and deferral rates. Year-to-date 2012 full service accumulation sales at $8.2 billion were up 58% over 2011. Because 2011 sales were more back-end loaded, we now expect full year 2012 sales to be up more than 30% over 2011. Given the robust sales growth in 2012, we expect future sales growth to be less than our historical averages. However, we expect to drive higher net revenue growth as we put greater focus on the small- to medium-size business market, which drives a higher percentage of proprietary asset management. Operating earnings for Principal Funds at $13 million were up 7% from the year-ago quarter on 13% increase in revenue, reflecting current-period sales expenses. Results included record sales of $4.5 billion and record net cash flows of $2.5 billion, reflecting strong investment performance and high demand across multiple strategies, including global diversified income fund, preferred securities, MidCap Blend Funds, high yield and our target-risk funds. Slide 10 covers the guaranteed businesses within Retirement and Investor Services. Guaranteed net revenue and operating earnings were flat in the third quarter as we continue to approach this business opportunistically. For example, in the third quarter, the $500-million pension closeout sale announced on the second quarter earnings call, funded. Our financial strength and reputation as a proven provider has enabled us to compete for this business, which generates attractive returns. Turning to Principal Global Investors, Slide 11 shows earnings and revenues grew 8% over the year-ago quarter, reflecting our investment for growth. Investment performance remains competitive. This drove strong unaffiliated net cash flows of $2.2 billion into a variety of asset classes including preferred, high yield, currency, stable value and equities, leading to a record unaffiliated assets under management of $98 billion. Looking at Principal International on Slide 12, third quarter 2012 operating earnings of $29.5 million were dampened by $11.5 million due to the actuarial assumption review this quarter. In our Mexican AFORE product, lapse rates are down noticeably from recent history, but we expect near-term lapse rates to be higher than previously assumed. More importantly, we continue to gain market share, particularly in the more desirable high-amount and high-contributing accounts. Combined net revenue growth was flat compared to the year-ago quarter, though it's up 18% on a constant currency basis. Foreign currency headwinds are masking double-digit growth in the member companies on a local level. We continue to expect long-term operating earnings growth of 15% to 20% in Principal International. Turning to Individual Life, Slide 13 illustrates third quarter 2012 adjusted premium and fees are down 2% compared to 2011 due to a targeted decrease in single premium sales. Third quarter 2012 operating earnings were down $66 million, of which $63 million was due to lowering our long-term interest rate assumption by 50 basis points and model enhancements. Additionally, operating earnings were down $3 million from the year-ago quarter, reflecting continued impact of the low interest rate environment. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted pretax operating margin at 18% is in our targeted long-term range of 16% to 21%. We expect to be at the low end of this range as long as the low interest rate environment persists. Slide 14 highlights Specialty Benefits' premium and fee growth of 5%, a solid result given continued pressure on employment levels. Third quarter 2012 adjusted operating earnings at $18 million were down $3 million from the third quarter 2011. This was primarily driven by the higher group disability claims in the quarter, which we consider to be normal quarterly volatility. Overall loss ratios for the year continued to be in our targeted range. On a trailing 12-month basis, pretax operating margins of 9% is in line with our long-term expectations of 8% to 12%. The corporate segment reported an operating loss of $31 million, right in line with our expected quarterly results of $30 million to $35 million. For the quarter, total company net income was $180 million. Third quarter benefited from a net gain resulting from the merger of Catalyst Health and our sale of the shares we received as a result of the merger. After tax credit-related losses remain steady at $38 million. Our investment-related losses continue to be in line or better than our loss projections and better than market expectations, reflecting sustainable recovery in commercial real estate. Slide 15 explains near-term impacts we experienced on our earnings growth. As long as pressure on fees and the low interest rate environment persists, we expect normalized total company operating earnings to grow 6% to 8%. With a lower share count in 2012, we expect normalized earnings per share growth to remain in our expected 11% to 13% range. Looking now at capital adequacy, we estimate our third quarter risk-based capital ratio to be 440%. Relative to a 350 RBC ratio, we have approximately $2.2 billion of total excess capital, up from $1.5 billion in second quarter, primarily due to our September $600-million debt issuance. The $1.5-billion purchase price for Cuprum will be met by using $1 billion of current excess capital in addition to approximately $500 million of assumed and yet-to-be-issued debt. Cuprum is expected to close in first quarter 2013. As Larry noted, the evolution of our business model means that we now have 60% to 65% of earnings coming from less capital intensive fee-based businesses that have limited or no guarantees associated with them. This will allow us to continue a pattern of increasing our dividend payout ratio year-over-year. As outlined on Slide 16, so far in 2012 we've allocated $2.1 billion of capital for common stock dividends, strategic acquisitions and opportunistic share repurchase. We announced our fourth quarter common stock dividend of $0.21 payable on December 28. Additionally, year-to-date, we have repurchased 9.9 million shares worth approximately $260 million. Looking ahead to 2013, we again expect to deploy capital with a commitment to increasing long-term value for shareholders. In closing, we're very pleased with the continued growth and momentum of our businesses. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the call for questions.