Earnings Labs

Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Dec 8, 2015

$11.69

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please standby, we are about to begin. Good afternoon, everyone. And welcome to the Dave & Buster’s Incorporated Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today’s call is being hosted by Steve King, Chief Executive Officer. I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning later today. Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Jay Tobin, Senior Vice President and General Counsel for opening remarks. Sir, please go ahead.

Jay Tobin

Management

Thank you, Noah, and thank you all for joining us. On the call today are Steve King, Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer. After comments from both Mr. King and Mr. Jenkins, we will open the call for your questions. This call is being recorded on behalf of Dave & Buster's Entertainment Incorporated and is copyrighted. Before we begin our discussion of the company’s results, I would like to call your attention to the fact that in our remarks and our responses to your questions, certain items maybe discussed which are not based entirely on historical facts. Any such items should be considered forward-looking statements and relating to future events within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those anticipated. Information on the various risk factors and uncertainties has been published in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website at www.daveandbusters.com under the Investor Relations section. In addition, our remarks today will include references to adjusted EBITDA, store level EBITDA and pro forma net income, which are financial measures which are not defined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Investors should review the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP results contained in our earnings announcement released this afternoon, which is also available on our website. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Steve.

Steve King

Management

Thanks, Jay, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today’s quarterly conference call and your interest in Dave & Buster's. As you might imagine, we're extremely pleased with how 2015 is progressing. We are delighted that the flow-through from our robust comparable store sales along with strong revenue contributions from newer stores has enabled us to set a new bar performance for store level EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins during the third quarter. And based upon our record-setting year-to-date results we are raising our 2015 annual guidance for the third consecutive quarter. Brian will walk you through the details and then provide some key topline metrics for 2016 shortly. In the meantime, let me say this, we attribute our exceptionally result and momentum to our highly differentiated business model, which provides guests with numerous ways to be entertain while enjoying great food and drink -- and drinking one of a kind beverages. Our guests continue to recognize unique experience that Dave & Buster's provide especially when compared with conventional casual dining. We remained the only national competitor in our space and provide an experience that’s highly customizable and cannot be replicated at home. Overall, comparable store sales rose 8.8% and that includes a negative 110 basis point calendar shift, because of Halloween and that is up against an 8.7% increase in the prior year. We also extended our outperformance relative to Knapp-Track to 14th consecutive quarters, with approximately an 830 basis point differential over the affected 13-week period. On a two-year basis we accelerated comparable store sales sequentially with the 17.5% gain during the third quarter, compared to a 16.7% gain in the second quarter and a 14.6% gain in the first quarter. And once again, we exhibited strength across day parts, days of the week, weekend and…

Brian Jenkins

Management

Thank you, Steve and good afternoon, everyone. Well, needless to say, I echo Steve’s excitement and how pleased we are with our performance to date and where we’re headed. Let’s now review our third quarter results and then discuss our increased outlook for 2015 and preliminary thoughts on 2016. For the 13-week period, total revenues increased 17.9% to $192.8 million, that’s up from $163.5 million in the prior year. Revenues from our comparable stores increased 8.8% to $152.4 million, up from $140 million while revenues from our non-comparable stores increased 72.7% to $40 million, that’s up from $23.2 million in the prior year. Now as a reminder, a store does not enter the comparable base until it is open at least 18 months as of the beginning of each fiscal year and store is closed as of the end of the reporting period are removed from the comparable base. As a result, although we had 60 stores in our comp base in the first half of 2015, it is dropped to 59 for Q3 and Q4 because of the closure and relocation of our Buffalo store. Also, please note that the year ago quarter included $2 million in revenues from two stores that have since closed, namely our Bethesda, Maryland store during the third quarter of last year and Farmingdale, New York store that closed in the first quarter of this year. With respect to category sales, we continue to experience our total sales mix shift to the more profitable gaming side of our business as total amusement and other sales grew 20.7% while food and beverage collectively increased 14.9%. During the third quarter, amusements represented 53.4% of total revenues, reflecting 120 basis point increase from the prior year period. Despite the 1.1% Halloween calendar headwind that Steve mentioned, we…

Steve King

Management

Thank you, Brian. I want to reiterate, we couldn’t be happier in terms of how 2015 is shaping up, while we've achieved so far as we look forward to a strong finish in the fourth quarter. We have a great team and great brand and great future at Dave & Buster's. Before I go further into development, I thought I first discuss our ongoing remodeling efforts, which we believe are critical to us taking brand to the next level, so that we can be viewed as the destination of choice for one-of-a-kind dining, entertainment in our existing -- for our existing guest as well as new guest alive. This year we’ve already completed three comprehensive remodels. We’ve enhanced five additional stores with D&B sports lounges and also improved the sports viewing in a number of other stores. Over 70% of all stores now have the sub branded D&B sports, which is a major component of any remodel but of course, not the only thing that we’re touching when we’re going and remodel the store. Looking to next year, we’re planning six comprehensive remodels and enhancing three additional stores with D&B sports lounges. By the end of 2016, we intend to be substantially complete with our sports related remodeling projects. Turning to development, as Brian mentioned, we planned to open eight to nine stores this year and have opened seven as of today. In the third quarter, we opened a store in Edina, Minnesota, which is in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota. And in the fourth quarter, we’ve opened in Friendswood, Texas, which is ever of Houston, as well as Glendale, Arizona in the Phoenix area. We’ll be opening in Springfield, Virginia, which is in the Greater DC area in a couple of weeks and follow those according to the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll take our first question from Andy Barish with Jefferies.

Andy Barish

Analyst

Hey, guys. Just wanted to check on sort of what you would view as the key drivers to kind of ‘16 growth above the long-term target. I know you’ve got a huge amount of momentum right now but -- and you don’t want to talk about specific yet. But what we kind of think about is as that the key elements that are driving your confidence in the ‘16 outlook?

Steve King

Management

Andy, I think, you said it that we have great momentum right now and that we anticipate some of that to carry into particularly the first part of 2016. And as always, we’re looking at different ways to get incrementally better across the Board. So we’re going to have some additional marketing, we’re going to have some additional marketing twist and tactics. But I would say that the biggest reason is the momentum that we’re carrying right now is in our confidence and being able to exceed again that long-term guidance number that we talked about.

Andy Barish

Analyst

And how do you -- how are you looking at and feeling about new store productivity as sort of incremental driver versus your pro forma at this point?

Steve King

Management

Well, I think, that we’re not really changing that all that much. I mean, we’re saying roughly 10% unit growth is going to generate a little bit less than 10% sales growth because we are -- we do have a number of those smaller stores in the mix. As Brian mentioned, it’s going to be more even bounce next year than what was this year where we only did one small store. So we would expect that those new stores are going to be relatively evenly spread across the year, probably, than a little more evenly spread across the year than they were this year, which should provide us in that kind of high single-digit growth or -- for new stores. But that’s what we have said before in terms of the way we anticipate that that’s going to flow.

Andy Barish

Analyst

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Hi. Good afternoon. So just two questions…

Steve King

Management

Good afternoon, Sharon.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Hi. I am calling you from the sunny Caribbean.

Steve King

Management

Okay. We can’t really.

Brian Jenkins

Management

We isn’t there.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Yeah. The sun setting now so not the sun anymore.

Brian Jenkins

Management

Okay.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

On G&A it looks really low this quarter, pretty low year-over-year growth, you backed up a transaction expenses. And I was just wondering if you had any shift on the timing in G&A at all that’s worth mentioning?

Brian Jenkins

Management

Not really. Last year we outperformed so early this year. We had both our incentive comp heading towards max payout, because of the high performance level, so and last year it was a little more measured over the course of the year. We are still targeting $52 million to $53 million of reported G&A. So I would just kind of keep that in your thought process.

Steve King

Management

Yes.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Got it. Okay. So that’s reported as now pro forma?

Brian Jenkins

Management

Yes. I mean, the only thing we are backing out -- really out of G&A is the secondary costs, which I think is about $150 million to the third quarter, so you could…

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Okay.

Brian Jenkins

Management

… perform that out in terms of the pro forma results.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Great. [Indiscernible] as well?

Steve King

Management

Yes. I will just say I was going to reiterate more or less what Brian said, last year we saw more acceleration in the second half of the year which drove the overall performance both on the comp basis and EBITDA basis. Again, this is all about how you prove it in the comp, this year it was clear very early on that we are going to be close to the [max] and we begin improving at that rate very early in the year.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Okay. Perfect. And then in the fourth quarter, I know you mentioned the holiday stuff, I don’t know, if you have any estimate on what that might do in the same-store sales. And I was just curious on Star Wars, I mean, do you think, the Star Wars movie is good thing or a bad thing for your business like you kind of see it both ways, but I am interested in your history with the big movie opening like that what am I need for Dave & Buster's?

Brian Jenkins

Management

I will take the second one first. We have been unsuccessful in correlating blockbuster movie openings with our comparable store sales. Meaning, it literally has no correlation when we grow in our process. So I'm not really anticipating that Star Wars is going to be any different. I mean, we do have the Star Wars Battle Pod game that we rolled out earlier this year. But there's really not a very effective way to talk about that for us. So I don’t think we are really going to get any balance per se from that. So I think that it will -- it is an event and we have a lot of stores that are very near because of their, where they are located is very near movie theaters, they tend to benefit from this kind of thing with is a blockbuster movie. We got other stores that are nowhere near a theater and they probably move a little bit and that’s my thesis for awhile. We don’t see any correlation between the two where we would just don't -- they are just not correlated to those blockbuster movies.

Steve King

Management

Okay. The first part of the question around holiday shift, obviously, it remains to be seen what the impact of that is. But it’s -- we think it’s going to be less than a percentage point. So it’s a number that’s that what it directionally lower than that hopefully. And I think, probably, the bigger number is thinking through the special event versus walk-in mix issue, because obviously the fourth quarter is by far the largest special events quarter any of our four quarters just to give you some perspective on that. On a year-to-date basis at the -- our special event business is around in the mid-9% range, I think, it’s 9.2% and in the fourth quarter you are carrying 16% or so. So and as we’ve indicated, we’ve not seeing the kind of walk-in strength and special events does not shuffle producing the same kind of strength as our walk-in business which has been just phenomenal this year. We take that right. We like the strong walk-in business, but they will have some impact on our -- I think our reported comp in the fourth quarter.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from the Nicole Miller with Piper Jaffray.

Nicole Miller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Thank you. Good evening. On the development for next year to 97 stores, are these going to be in new -- or you would call it new market that will be -- how many are going through existing market?

Steve King

Management

They skew more towards new market, I believe next year, looking at some of our compatriot here.

Brian Jenkins

Management

I don’t know what they did this year.

Steve King

Management

We clearly skewed more in the existing markets and I slipped around. I want to say roughly four of them are existing, six new.

Nicole Miller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Okay. Great. And then just on the private party business, can you talk about if that’s driven more by a corporate or social. And then what are you seeing so far for a holiday booking? Thanks.

Steve King

Management

Well, I’ll take the first part -- the second part first which is we don't typically disclose or we haven’t in the past that we disclosed where we are in booking and whatnot. But I’ll let Dolf answer the question on kind of where we introduced social versus corporate.

Brian Jenkins

Management

Our experience is that there were about 55% corporate and 45% social in non-profit. So the non-profit will include schools. We do quite a bit with walk-in event in summer. So it’s about 55%-45%.

Nicole Miller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Is strength still coming from both stores, they’re evenly split and their performance is similar?

Brian Jenkins

Management

That mix hasn’t changed dramatically in the last number of quarters.

Nicole Miller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] and with no further questions at this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Steve King for any additional or closing remarks.

Steve King

Management

Thank you, Noah. As a final note we’re planning to present at the ICR conference in January. So we may see some of you there, but if not, we look forward to speaking to you again when we release our results from the fourth quarter towards the end of March. We appreciate your continued support and interest in Dave and Busters. Have a good afternoon.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.