Timothy Arndt
Analyst · Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho
Thank you, Dan. We delivered another excellent quarter with core FFO of $1.60 per share and $1.61 per share excluding net promote expense. We ended the quarter with 95.6% occupancy, up 10 basis points from the second quarter, with average occupancy of 95.1%, also a 10 basis point increase. Rent change on rollover was 38% on a net effective basis, adding $85 million of incremental NOI, and on a cash basis, rent change was 23%. Our lease mark-to-market ended the quarter at 16%, representing approximately $780 million of embedded NOI at spot rents. This does not capture the additional upside we expect as inflation and today's elevated replacement cost rents flow through over the coming years. In aggregate, we delivered same-store NOI growth of 5.7% on a net effective basis and 5.9% on cash. Turning to capital deployment. We started $1 billion of development in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date starts to nearly $5 billion. Alongside this volume, we've been very successful replenishing strategic land positions and upholding a long runway for value creation. We own or control sites to develop the next $40 billion of logistics development with a highly capital-efficient land strategy. We acquired $950 million of real estate during the quarter at an estimated discount to replacement cost of 20%. Our disposition activity totaled $310 million, and we continue to focus on the positive IRR spread we generate between acquisitions and dispositions, which now stands at 150 basis points year-to-date. In terms of data centers, the increasing difficulty of powering and entitling sites is certainly adding scarcity value to our portfolio, particularly alongside exceptionally strong customer demand. Our pipeline currently totals 5.8 gigawatts, including 1.7 of secured power and 4.1 in advanced stages. We are engaged with customers across the pipeline, with letters of intent covering approximately 1 gigawatt, much of which we expect to start in 2027. Turning to market conditions. The recovery in logistics demand continues to gain momentum. U.S. net absorption totaled 63 million square feet in the third quarter, a healthy level and consistent with what we view as normalized annual range of 230 million to 240 million square feet. This further underscores the growing improvement we've been highlighting for nearly 2 years. Market vacancy declined 10 basis points to 7.1%, and market rents increased another 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive rent growth. Across the U.S., demand is broadening across geographies and size categories, with markets such as Houston, Dallas and Atlanta continuing to lead. At the same time, conditions are improving in markets that have been slower to recover. Southern California is steadily improving, Northern New Jersey is picking up momentum and the San Francisco Bay Area stands out for its high occupancy and strong rent growth, all creating potential for future outperformance. Consistent with prior quarters, the recovery is being led by notable strength across e-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the rapidly growing segment of customers supporting the data center supply chain. This customer segment represented approximately 10% of our new leasing globally and 17% in the U.S. this quarter. We're seeing that demand translate into meaningful activity across several U.S. markets that are geographically aligned with the data center build-out underway. Markets like Texas, Northern California, Northern Virginia, Arizona and select Midwest markets. Our current estimate is that these customers will require upwards of 150 million square feet of demand through the end of the decade for both build-out and ongoing service of this new segment, a topic we explore in greater depth through research we plan to publish in the coming weeks. Beyond the U.S., our global platform is designed to deepen customer relationships and expand value creation opportunity, but it is also key to delivering resilient, diversified operating performance. In this regard, Europe continues to show solid operating fundamentals. Market vacancy has remained low at 5.3%, and market rents increased 70 basis points during the quarter, now amounting to 275 basis points year-over-year. The Netherlands, U.K., Spain and Italy remain among the stronger markets for both rents and deployment opportunities. And across Latin America, Brazil continues to lead while Mexico is normalizing. As we saw in the U.S., even as market rents soften, Mexico's heightened lease mark-to-market is delivering strong rent change and same-store growth. Finally, in Japan, it is noteworthy that the higher rate and inflation environment is translating to growing market rents, aided by declining market vacancy. Moving to capital markets. U.S. transaction volume is up 20% year-to-date, and for most of the year, risk appetite and pricing improved alongside operating fundamentals. Clearly, the market is now digesting the recent increase in Treasury yields, and we are observing a wider bid-ask spread. While investors contemplate re-underwriting exit cap rates, the corresponding reassessment for higher rents provides the potential to offset some pressure on values. We expect transaction volumes to moderate in the near term as buyers and sellers recalibrate, and while some short-term noise is likely, we believe the scarcity of high-quality assets with inflation plus growth characteristics will continue to attract global capital. Turning to a brief update on SEGRO. As Dan mentioned, we are very pleased with the progress made during the quarter, having reached agreement with the Board for a recommended deal and subsequently obtaining approval from the SEGRO shareholders. The transaction is now progressing through the required regulatory clearances, and we continue to expect it to close in the first half of 2027. We also raised $2.4 billion of common equity during the quarter, completing an important part of the transaction's consideration. Further rounding out the balance sheet, we closed on approximately $1.3 billion in debt financing at an average rate of just under 4% during the quarter. More broadly, while the abrupt shift in the interest rate environment presents challenges, we are fortunate to hold approximately 95% of our debt on a fixed rate basis with approximately 8 years of average life remaining. Our debt metrics remain in excellent shape, and our liquidity at the end of the quarter was nearly $9 billion. Turning to guidance, which I'll review in our share. First, in our operations, we are narrowing our forecast for average occupancy to a range of 95.25% to 95.50%. Our strong year-to-date performance in same-store growth is driving an increase to its range to 5.5% to 6% on a net effective basis and 7% to 7.5% on a cash basis. Strategic capital revenue, excluding promotes, is being revised to a range of $650 million to $660 million, reflecting a tempered view on asset management fees as well as the timing of some transaction-based fees. And G&A is now expected to range between $515 million to $525 million. On capital deployment, we are increasing development starts on an owned and managed basis to a range of $6 billion to $6.75 billion. This increase is driven predominantly by our expectation for a very high fourth quarter of build-to-suit starts, and all of the remaining activity will be in new logistics development. In total and for the year, we expect build-to-suits to represent between 55% and 65% of the year's starts. We're increasing our acquisitions guidance to $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion and expect contributions and dispositions to range from $3.5 billion to $4.75 billion. Putting it all together, we expect net earnings to range between $4.05 and $4.15 per share, and core FFO is expected to range between $6.25 and $6.29 per share, both with and without promotes. In closing, our third quarter results confirm that our underlying business and market conditions remain strong. Demand is broad. Our portfolio is performing very well, and our land and power positions create significant opportunities for value creation. Underneath, our global platform, strong balance sheet and proven team position us to respond to changing conditions and invest with discipline in the opportunities ahead. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Operator?