Good day and welcome to the Philip Morris International Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International Management and the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community. I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2023 third quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products, as well as adjustments, other calculations, and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation, and additional net revenue data are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's form 8-K dated October 19, 2023, and on our investor relations website. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Emmanuel.

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. We delivered very strong and better than expected performance in Q3, driven by IQOS and ZYN. Adjusted Diluted EPS grew by an excellent plus 20% in currency neutral terms to reach a record quarterly high of $1.67, despite a significant adverse currency impact in the period. Once again, our total volumes were positive, with the Q3 progression of over plus 2% positioning us to deliver our third straight year of growth. While not yet in our organic metrics, ZYN continued its exceptional growth with US volumes up by plus 66% in Q3 and over plus 50% year-to-date with a substantial increase in category share. Importantly, our IQOS business delivered another strong quarter with HTU shipment growing plus 18%, in line with the year-to-day trend. As covered at our recent Investor Day, HTU volumes have excellent unique economics relative to cigarettes, and the plus 16.5% organic net revenue growth from smoke-free product was a key driver in both our high single digit organic top line and double digit organic operating income growth. Smoke-free products made up over 36% of total net revenue in the quarter as we drive toward our new ambition of over two-thirds by 2030, making us substantially smoke-free. In combustibles, we delivered very robust performance with plus 6% growth in organic net revenues, strong pricing and higher category share despite the impact of adult smokers moving to smoke-free product. Our impressive operating income growth drove organic year-on-year margin expansion and a sequential improvement compared to the second quarter. This includes [healthy] (ph) expansion in the gross margin of our IQOS business, which surpassed combustible in the period and lower than expected commercial costs. Overall, we are pleased to report another strong quarter and we look forward with confidence to the remainder of…

Thank you. We will now conduct the question-and-answer portion of the conference. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning, Vivien.

So I'd like to start with ZYN, please. Clearly, a very impressive result with continued acceleration in the top line. Emmanuel, you talked about distribution gains. So, I was hoping you could just level set how much more runway do you see from a distribution standpoint? Certainly, this remains a velocity-driven story, I would think. So that would be question one. And then the follow-up will just be on the margins, which came in way ahead of expectations. You've called out very strong cost management. That's clearly apparent. I'd love to hear your perspective on the durability of the current margin level for ZYN, please. Thank you.

Thank you, Vivien. So on ZYN and of course, every quarter will bring its new, I would say, load of news. And I think we see in Q3 another great quarter of acceleration in the velocity that means that where the brand is already even nicely present, we see the consumer offtake accelerating. It just show that this product are becoming more relevant for a growing number of adult user and that's a great news. There is also the geographical dimension on which we elaborated at the time of our Investor Day and which is showing that, while the brand has a certain level of presence on the western part of the U.S., it doesn't mean that it isn't going to grow it further, but it's, of course, bigger than the rest of the country. There seems to be a trajectory that is saying that the rest of the country is going to adopt it progressively, and that is indeed giving also a nice, I would say, trajectory on further growth in the coming quarters and years, of course. We talk here about probably years of very nice growth. So it's great that we have beyond ZYN, two engine, which is really where the brand is already with the biggest presence. We don't see any decrease in the consumer adoption, and we see increase, what we call the velocity. And we see progressively, I think, as well quarter-after-quarter, this geographical momentum building up as expected. Now on the margin, yes, it's true that this growth of ZYN is extremely positive when it comes to margin. Of course, we are going to continue to invest behind this growth potential in the U.S., and we will put the necessary commercial resources to make sure that we maximize the growth potential. But I said it, ZYN is really best-in-class in terms of gross margin for our product in -- at the group level. I'm talking about ZYN in the U.S., but globally in [indiscernible] nice margin, but ZYN in the U.S. is best in class. And that means, of course, that growing ZYN is an excellent news for top line, but also for bottom line. And I think that in the growth of the adjusted earnings per share over the quarter, this is absolutely visible.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

Thank you. Good morning.

Good morning, Bonnie.

I had a question on your HTU shipment volume for the year. You mentioned you're now expecting to come in within the lower half of your guidance. And then you highlighted a few reasons for this, including the uncertainty related to inventory levels in Europe given the upcoming flavor ban. So could you give us a sense of maybe where inventory levels are at right now? And then maybe how many quarters do you expect some of this unwind to happen? And then, just thinking about the trade, is this being offset in any way with -- I'm just thinking about combustible cig inventories? Or really, how is the trade responding to this ban?

Yes, Bonnie. So I think it's, of course, something on which we will be able to elaborate once we have been landing the year after the ban put in place on where the country are implementing it at the end of October [indiscernible] in all countries. One of the questions we have is, as with some reduction with some SKUs, does it mean that they are globally going to reduce the level of inventory and can this impact the level of shipment toward the year-end? So I think we're flying that because, of course, we continue to be with a view that this ban should not ultimately bring major disruption, and we've been elaborating on many occasions on why we think that this ban is not going to ultimately change the dynamic in the category. But it's so that we have some question mark on the landing for the reason I've just been describing on the level of inventory. That's why we are -- I mentioned we need to make sure that we are as clear as possible on the possible, I would say, temporary effect that this could generate. Now when I look at our shipments for the year. So we are clarifying the lending area. When I look at the 2023 performance versus 2022 performance, that will mean even in the low end of the bracket, an acceleration in terms of growth versus the growth that we experienced in 2022 in terms of incremental billion of [indiscernible] being sold. And of course, shipments are, as we know, what we are selling, what is probably more important is the consumer offtake. And here, frankly, we see the momentum continuing with no change. And I think the Q3 number where we have seasonality. But when we look at Q3, what we expect for Q4, we are very much with the same strong 15% to 16% IMS growth. And we are in line with what we have experienced last year. So that shows -- and by the way, it's a percentage on a higher base. So in fact, in volume, that means that the volume growth is higher. So we don't see any change in the momentum. We see a lot of strength in the growth, and that's visible in the volume and the market share that we are reporting today for Q3.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of another question, I just wanted to ask on your new IQOS users in the quarter. It did come in a bit light. You highlighted that this is normal quarterly seasonal trend. So maybe could you talk through that a bit further for us? And then maybe what other drivers might be impacting this? And essentially, how much visibility do you have in terms of Q4? You mentioned you expect a substantial acceleration in user growth this quarter. So I just kind of wanted to verify what you're seeing so far in October gives you that confidence. And is it realistic to assume a typical $1 million average quarterly run rate moving forward? Thanks.

Sure, Bonnie. So actually, last year, we were flat in terms of user acquisition. So we're doing better this year than last year in terms of user evolution. And I think we are in line with what we experienced in 2021, if I remember well, I think we've been sharing the numbers. So that's a typical pattern for Q3 which is due to the mythology on how we calculate the user growth. And I think we have today the -- as I said, the element of the momentum that we are seeing on people buying the device and people registering that is pointing to the fact that we see the same momentum, there is no change. And last year, we finished the year with a strong user growth, and we target to do the same this year. So I have to say it's remarkably stable in the strength, if I can use this expression. And as I said, we could be at the end of the day, in fact, growing in shipments and in IMS volume more than last year. So the percentage is about the same. Again, the basis being higher, it means that we're going to increase in terms of volume differential year-on-year.

All right. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gaurav Jain with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning, Gaurav.

So I have a question on the U.S. cigar side of things. So clearly, the FDA stand as rule-making process to ban flavored cigars to the [OMB] (ph). So first, how will you address that? And secondly, if I look at the reported numbers on cigars, it seems that the revenue had a pretty steep decline this quarter. Can you help us understand what's happening there?

So on the trend, we've been increasing price. I mean the cigar had been below a certain threshold for a period of time and we decided to move above this ratio, which was $1.14. And there is a time for adaptation and that explains why on volume we are impacted this year. But I don't think it reflects what's going to happen in the long term where we continue to have very good brands and with a lot of consumer support. Frankly, on the flavor, will you allow me not to speculate. I mean, I don't know exactly what are the plans. What it’s going to mean, how long it would take, what is decided, and again, nobody actually knows what could be decided, how long it's going to take to be implemented. So I'm not going to speculate at this stage on what would be our answer and what we would do because I'm not going to be relevant on anything that could be seen at that stage.

Sure. Thank you. And then my second question is on FY 2024 EPS and what's the base we should use to project that? Because I heard a comment that the Argentinian balance sheet revaluation impact, which is about $0.06 that will not recur in FY 2024. So we should add back to FY 2023 EPS? And then could you also just comment on Russia exposure and the [CLCPS] (ph)?

Yes. So this is a technical comment on Argentina. Gaurav, you're absolutely right. This is a ForEx impact that is a kind of one-off, if you want, because that is impacting this year but next year, we're not starting with the base on our profit that is decreased by that. It's just something that you need to book on your balance sheet exposure. But what is taken is taken. I mean, of course, depending on the evolution of the Argentinian peso in the future. But I don't have anything to say at this stage. I think I just wanted to clarify this technical impact. On Russia, frankly, versus when we made three weeks ago, there is nothing new to report on the Russian situation. This is a market where, of course, we are being very significantly impacted on the profit reported in dollars because of the very strong weakening of the Russian ruble versus the dollar. And that is one of the, if not, the biggest impact this year on ForEx. That is, of course, I would say, mechanically reducing our exposure to Russia in our profit. That's mechanical. And we are -- as we already said, we are seeing very limited growth in Russia, that is a market where as we've been saying, we've been reducing our commercial activity and [indiscernible] market where we're investing and that is translating, of course, on the performance of this market.

Thank you so much.

Thank you, Gaurav.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning.

Hi, Pam. Good morning.

I have a question on the combustible business. It's been exceeding expectations, and you've taken up your guidance for volumes on the combustible strength. Can you talk about what's driving the performance in this category, despite the acceleration in pricing growth?

Sure, Pam. Happy to do that. So yes, combustible is being resilient. We have a decline, but it's a modest decline in Q3. Let's be clear, this is driven by a few market where we see a nice share gain. One is Turkey, the other one is Egypt. As you can imagine, they are not market with great profitability per stick. So let's be very clear. We have a nice performance on combustible on volume, to some extent on revenue. All the great work that we are doing now on increasing OI and growing margin is first and foremost driven by our smoke-free product, IQOS first, ZYN second and [indiscernible]. So yes, great performance when it comes to volumes, greater performance versus the decline that we have seen in the past few years. Good impact on revenue. We've been doing good on price increase as well. But remember, that's a category on which we've seen a lot of inflation on our cost and part of the growth is generated by market with low profitability.

Okay. Thank you. And then on ZYN, when do you expect to hear a decision from the FDA on ZYN's PMTA applications? And how are you thinking about the prospects for ZYN flavor approvals, considering the FDA has recently issued unfavorable decisions around flavored e-cig products.

Look, we discussed that three weeks ago and there is nothing new on the PMTA. We don't know what's going to be the time line. It's at the discretion of the FDA, and we see that a lot of things are taking significant time to be -- decision to be taken. Let me make a couple of comments on this PMTA process, nevertheless. The first one is that, we have with our snuff product, [indiscernible] an MRTPA of Level 1. So the FDA has been recognized that this product are representing a reduced risk versus combustible cigarettes and we're very clear as benefit claim. We believe that by nature, this product should be considered as equally good, if not better. And we believe that they have the potential to really convince million of smokers to move away from combustible cigarettes to have a better way of consuming nicotine. So we are really helpful that -- hopeful that the FDA will really take that as a very important element and that it's important to make this product available for nicotine users in the U.S. Now on the flavor, because I think that was probably one of your questions. For the same reason, we believe it is important that the consumer has the choice of flavor, if it is a reason for them to move away from combustible cigarettes to this better product. Having said that, we have the example of a ban on flavor in California. And the reality is that, there was an adjustment during a couple of months, and then the [rules] (ph) resumed without flavor in California and we are today very, very significantly, I think we are close to 30% above the pre-ban level in California. So it shows that these products are extremely attractive and resonate with the nicotine user, with the smokers and with other nicotine users beyond the flavor, which is very good news.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you, Pam.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Smith with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, Emmanuel.

Good morning, Matt.

If we take the full year organic profit margin guidance, the down 150 basis points or so and the year-to-date performance, along with your commentary around kind of a flattish year-over-year performance in the fourth quarter, can you talk about some of the factors in the fourth quarter. I understand there's a lot of crosswinds here, but you get the benefit of Swedish Match rolling into the organic base. And then you mentioned you've completed the shift to -- back to sea freight for HTU consumables in Japan. So can you talk about some of the headwinds to margin in the fourth quarter? Maybe some detail around your expectations around the incremental ILUMA launches or any other factors would be helpful.

Sure. So indeed, there are going to be some mix impact in Q4 and notably on the devices as we are rolling out ILUMA in a significant number of new markets. We are also launching some new innovation in some markets on the ILUMA device. That's going to generate, I would say, significantly accelerated activity on our device sales, and that is having a negative impact on the margin. So that's going to be clearly one element. Then on top of that, there will be certainly some investment during the fourth quarter, and that is having an impact on the margin. And then you can have some mix coming from geographies and other mix element. That is what is today behind the guidance of around flat. I mean it doesn't mean that it's going to be a bit positive. But today, we are seeing this around stability situation for our OI margin year-on-year organically for Q4.

Thank you for that. And just as a follow-up, when you talk about investments in the fourth quarter, should we think of that as a sequential step-up in investment relative to the level in the third quarter? Or is that more of a year-over-year higher investment compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. And I'll leave it there.

Yes, I think you should expect certainly a continuation of a significant level of investment as we are accompanying the growth of our star product, IQOS and ZYN. That should probably mean quarter-on-quarter, I would say, sequential increase and still a significant growth versus last year.

Thank you for that.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

Good morning, Emmanuel. Hope you are well.

Good morning, Owen.

I just wanted to ask also ZYN very, very strong in the U.S., but I wanted to ask about pouches ex U.S. So volumes only flat versus 2Q for Scandi and ex-Scandi. You mentioned you also had relaunches in Switzerland and Finland during the quarter. So I was just wondering how you see the near-term outlook for volumes at U.S.? Do you expect any meaningful acceleration over the next several quarters? And then the second question linked to that, there's some increasing chatter now that the EU is looking to potentially ban pouches as part of the new TPD. Does this impact how you think about investing in the space ex-U.S. near term? Thank you.

Thank you. Yes. So we have this situation in Scandinavia on nicotine pouch where the product is already present, mainly in Sweden, where it's a nicely growing market. That's not where we enjoyed the biggest market share. So we are globally year-to-date, growing on nicotine pouch in Sweden, but are not -- we're not talking about big volumes here as we have our strong leadership in Sweden on snus. Outside Scandinavia, we are just at the beginning. So yes, we are launching. So we explained that we've been launching in Switzerland, Finland as well, even in the Nordics. There will be more market to come. Now it's going to be hopefully nice, but it's going to be small versus what we see in the U.S. You see what I mean. So it's going to be difficult to see given the strength that we are seeing in the U.S. to see volume outside the U.S. showing their strengths. Now yes, it's going to add very nicely additional numbers. But again, it's not going to be huge compared to the U.S. We'll see with TPD if there is any decision taken around nicotine pouch. Of course, if there is anything decided that will -- in that respect, which we don't know today that may influence the way we invest on this category in the EU. But frankly, at that stage, it's too early to say because we don't know what's going to be discussed, if anything on that one. And therefore, we'll see.

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Thank you. Our last question will come from Andrei Condrea with UBS.

Hi. Good morning, Emmanuel. Just one from me, please. And I know it's a bit of a topic to [Joe] (ph), but the GLP-1 drug, obviously, there's been talk about it having anti-addictive properties. Do you think this could be an issue for PMI in the long term, rather? Thank you.

Frankly, I mean, I've been hearing things about that. I mean I know what the assumption is everybody going to be under GLP-1, and therefore, they're going to drive massive change in consumer behavior. And I'm not even able to tell you what would be the impact for somebody who is a nicotine user and is going to take GLP-1. I'm not sure we have any serious study on human behavior on that that is going to say that. So first of all, I don't know how broad the usage of this medicine as drug is going to be. Second, I don't know what's going to be the potential impact. So I'm not sure that today we can say anything relevant and that makes sense on that topic.

No. That makes sense. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you. And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to Emmanuel for closing remarks.

Hi. This is James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

Thank you, talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.