Richard J. Johnson - Chief Financial Officer
Analyst · UBS
Thank you, Jim, and good morning everyone. As Jim indicated, this was a great quarter for PNC, as we reported $505 million of net income or $1.45 of diluted earnings per share. These earnings included an after-tax gain on the mark to market of our BlackRock LTIP shares obligation and integration costs primarily related to our Sterling acquisition. Excluding these items, earnings per diluted share would have been $1.37, a very strong second quarter performance. Now here are my key messages. First, our balance sheet was well positioned for the Fed rate reductions resulting in strong net interest income and revenue growth. Second, while our asset quality continued to migrate and credit costs increased in the second quarter, the pace of this migration remained manageable. And third our capital position continued to strengthen from year-end and we continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. So, despite a challenging market, PNC delivered strong results due to our business model and the quality of our balance sheet. Now let's start with my first key message. Our liability-sensitive balance sheet was well positioned for the rapid decline in short-term rates resulting in a 70 basis point reduction in our overall cost of funds. In addition to reducing our overnight borrowing rate by 85 basis points, we’re able to make changes to our deposit pricing, reducing the overall deposit rate by 62 basis points and at the same time grow our average money market balances by more than $2 billion or an 8% increase on a linked quarter basis. This resulted in very strong net interest income growth of $123 million or 14% on a linked quarter basis. Most of this result is reflected in our other segment. We do not expect to sustain this rate of growth, however based on our economic assumptions we now expect full-year net interest income growth will exceed 28% when compared to 2007. And while we don't expect to Fed tightening in the short term, it is a risk we’ve considered in our revenue growth guidance. My second key message is a better asset quality. As Jim mentioned earlier, sooner or later you will meet your balance sheet and we like the risk-adjusted returns that our differentiated balance sheet has delivered. As you can see on Slide 4 of our presentation, our total assets are $143 billion and reflecting our moderate risk profile only 51% of our assets are loans. This ranks PNC among the lowest of our peers, which is exactly where you’d want to be at this point in the credit cycle. But before I go into our loan book, let me take a moment to describe the quality of our other assets. Our loans held for sale portfolio, which includes our commercial mortgage loans held for sale, represents only 2% of our balance sheet and is comprised of high-quality assets. In fact, we only have one small multifamily loan delinquency in our portfolio. As the CMBS markets eased modestly, we reduced our inventory by approximately $500 million during the quarter, recognizing a gain of $21 million. Our goal is to continue to reduce our positions throughout the year. However, these are high-quality assets with excellent yields, so we will remain patient in our efforts to reduce this portfolio. Our $31 billion securities book, which represents 22% of our balance sheet, is well diversified across high-quality residential mortgage, commercial mortgage, and asset-backed securities. We have no CDOs, CLOs, or CIS [ph] in the portfolio. Our focus has been to purchase relatively short-dated, higher-rated paper. We have approximately $10 billion of agency-backed holdings and our non-agency holdings have high levels of subordination and substantially all are AAA rated. In addition, we performed credit analysis on the underlying assets, including stress tests leveraging BlackRock solutions. As swap rates increased during the quarter, we did experience further losses on the portfolio due to market liquidity. However, permanent impairments have been minimal to date. Our other assets of $27 billion includes equity investments, including our investment in BlackRock, miscellaneous assets, goodwill, and other intangible assets. As you would expect in this environment, we did see some modest impairments on our equity investments in the quarter, the largest of which was an impairment in our $100 million investment in GMAC. However, across all our equity investments, we experienced only $30 million of impairments in the quarter, again a very manageable pace of asset impairment. In the current environment, we’ve recognized there is a great deal of concern about asset quality and loan portfolio performance. Our adherence to a moderate risk profile has given us a portfolio that is performing well on a relative basis even under these difficult market circumstances. Our $30 billion consumer loan portfolio was high quality and is producing strong returns. Home equity is a relationship-based book and we originated this nearly $14 billion portfolio with the intent to hold them our balance sheet. Nearly all of these loans are on our footprint and our strategy to not involve targeting the subprime market. In the second quarter, net charge-offs were only 53 basis points, which I expect will be well below our peers, but I do expect this charge-off rate to increase modestly in the periods ahead. As you can see, the 90-day delinquency rate of 44 basis points, including nonperforming loans continued to be manageable. Our $9 billion residential mortgage book is comprised mostly of seasoned jumbo loans with strong loan-to-value levels. We purchase these loans for overall balance sheet management purposes. They offered us great spreads with relatively low risk. The 90-day delinquency rate on this portfolio is 94 basis points. Excluding nonperforming loans, the delinquency rate was 39 basis points and the net charge-offs were 1 basis point. I expect these statistics will be well below our peers. Other consumer loans include education loans, automobile lending, and other consumer loans. The primary risk here is in the auto lending, as option values continued to decline in the used-car market, impacting our ultimate recovery on repossessions. Overall, net charge-offs in this portfolio were 63 basis points in the quarter, while 90-day delinquency rates, including nonperforming loans, were only 47 basis points. This portfolio has had a minor impact on our total credit migration. As you can see, the overall consumer book is performing well. Now moving to our commercial book, we have $43 billion in outstandings. Of the $34 billion in commercial loans, which include lease financing, nearly two-thirds of cash flow loans to middle market companies located mostly in our footprint. This portfolio is diversified and has performed well to date. Net charge-offs in this portfolio were 73 basis points in the second quarter and we have seen only modest increases in NPAs. Looking at commercial real estate, we have more than $7.4 billion, excluding residential real estate development. This book is diversified with no single project type greater than 18% and net charge-offs are only 78 basis points, with relatively no nonperforming assets. Our area of strength is the $2.1 billion in residential real estate development, which represents less than 2% of total assets. These loans, the majority of which are in our footprint, are very granular and the average size of these outstandings is about $1.4 million per loan. We believe this gives us greater flexibility working through these credits at lower losses. These loans are primarily located in Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, and New Jersey. Charge-offs were 1.38% in the second quarter. We have about $250 million in nonperforming assets in this class, which represents 35% of our total nonperforming assets. As expected, the pace of loans moving to nonperforming status slowed between the first and the second quarter. We do expect further growth in nonperforming assets in this category. Now, let's take a look at our overall charge-offs and reserving trends. Slide 5 shows our credit quality metrics on a consolidated basis. In this difficult market, deterioration was to be expected given that these ratios were at historically low levels. As you can see from the recent trends, our net charge-offs and reserve ratios have been manageable for us. While net charge-offs have increased, they are among the lowest in the industry. Of course, we will continue to monitor the situation as if we do expect charge-off rates to increase. However, we believe we are adequately reserved to cover these increases. Our allowance to loans has increased to 1.35% this quarter, a significant increase versus the prior quarter. We expect to continue to increase this coverage, as the market and our credit quality migration dictates. Overall, we believe our moderate risk profile and our adequacy of our reserves differentiate our balance sheet from our peers. As an aside, given the recent press on cross-border leasing, I would like to remind you all that we are fully reserved and have substantially settled all our tax and accounting risk related to this activity. Now I'd like to turn to our third key message, our capital and liquidity positions. We believe capital and liquidity are critical differentiators and as you can see on Slide 6, PNC has a strong liquidity position and a disciplined approach to capital management. As I mentioned earlier, our balance sheet continued to be highly liquid by many measures and we continue to have ample unused borrowing capacity of nearly $27 billion as of June 30th, 2008. And PNC has clearly improved its capital position during the first half of the year. We were able to increase our dividend by 5% for the second quarter; closed on the Sterling acquisition in April, which cost us approximately 35 basis points on our Tier 1 ratio; and still strengthened our Tier 1 capital position through successful non-dilutive issuances and retained earnings. At 8.1%, we are well within our targeted Tier 1 capital range of 7.5% to 8.5%. We continue… we intend to continue to work to build capital flexibility to the higher end of this range to support our customers during this period of economic uncertainty. Now let's take a look at earnings. Our revenue mix is diverse and grew in double-digit territory both year-over-year and on a linked quarter basis. I've already covered our strong net interest income growth, so let me focus on fee income. Our fee-based businesses accounted for 52% of total revenue and grew 10% linked quarter and 9% year-over-year. Now, if we exclude the impact of the LTIP obligation, which was a $40 million increase in revenues, linked quarter growth in noninterest income would have been 6%. Let me highlight a few of these. Fund servicing revenue grew 2.6% linked quarter or 11% on an annualized basis, driven primarily by our emerging products and our acquisitions of Albridge and Coates. Our asset management revenues were down linked quarter due to the loss of revenue associated with Hilliard Lyons and lower equity market values. Nevertheless, we had very strong sales in our wealth management business, particularly in new markets and growth from BlackRock. Together, consumer service fees and service charges on deposits were down from the prior quarter. Excluding $33 million of revenue related to Hilliard Lyons in the prior quarter, revenues were up 10% on a linked quarter basis primarily due to increased debit card usage, as a result of higher activation levels and the acceptance of our products and services in new markets. Corporate service revenue increased 13% linked quarter, primarily due to strong results from commercial mortgage servicing and loan syndication fees and treasury management services. Other noninterest income benefited from actions we took this quarter to mitigate risk. Our trading revenues this quarter were $53 million driven by a strong performance on our client trading activities and reflecting our lower risk positions in the proprietary book. And the gains in our commercial mortgage origination business were a positive $21 million reflecting improved markets and narrowing spreads, enabling approximately $500 million of securitizations, which substantially offset the equity investment and impairments I mentioned earlier. As these revenues illustrate, I am pleased with our product penetration with existing clients and those who are winning in our new markets. Overall, our revenue mix is producing very strong results. As you can see on Slide 9, we created positive operating leverage on a year-to-date basis. This has been accomplished with a 16% growth in revenue and a 9% growth in expenses. The 9% growth in expenses is primarily driven by investing in growth opportunities, including our acquisitions. Our success in growing revenues while continuing to manage expenses is reflected in our continuous improvement process. We think having this as part of our culture is particularly important, given the current uncertainties about the economy. Based on our economic assumptions, as we look to the full year, we see higher revenue growth than previously expected, driven by net interest income growth in excess of 28%, which I mentioned earlier. As a result, total revenue growth is now expected in the mid-teens on a year-over-year basis, and we expect noninterest expense growth in the mid to low-single digits resulting in significant positive operating leverage. Now, just to give you an example of how powerful this is. For each percentage point of operating leverage, PNC creates between $60 million to $70 million in annualized pre-provision pre-tax earnings. This operating leverage is important, given that we are increasing our full-year provision guidance to $750 million. Clearly, economic conditions are changing as we are seeing higher unemployment rates and slower economic growth. However, we believe that increased operating leverage will be more than adequate to cover the increased credit costs for full-year 2008. We also expect our effective tax rate to remain at approximately 31% for the rest of 2008. All in all, as we continue to execute on our business model and aggressively manage and monitor our balance sheet, we believe we are in a position to deliver a solid second half. With that I'll turn it back to Jim.