John Stauch
Analyst · Steve Tusa with JPMorgan
I think that would be aggressive. I think like we said on -- I think it's Slide 11, Steve, we expect and -- listen, we acknowledge the pool, we think we're just going to have a good year this year anyway. As you know, we had easier comparisons year-over-year. And we didn't have great weather last year, and we've had tremendous weather for the pool season this year. In addition to that, we think that the shelter-in-place has changed the consumers' behaviors, primarily around seasonal products that aren't always purchased, "Okay, we're going to use our pool earlier, so let's talk about our heaters. We're home, and we're maintaining our pool, should we consider chlorinators? Should we consider automating our pool?" Those are all the things that we are hopeful for long periods of time, that our consumers would begin to understand and start to invest in it. And we're really encouraged about those order trends related to that. So we're acknowledging pool is going to have a really good year, and our only limit there is our supply chain and making sure we're managing through it. We're acknowledging the fact that we probably had a much more optimistic forecast in Water Solutions. And the commercial impact in the likelihood that people are going to open up their offices for people to come back to work or that hotels and hospitality sections are going to see travel to the level that we used to, that's what we're taking out of this look as we build this guide, Steve. And so I would think it would be very hard for Consumer Solutions to get all the way back, but I do think we're encouraged by the trends. And as we started to see things open in June, we really liked our positioning in the Water Solutions business, and we started to see that recovery. But then towards the end of June, we saw it pull back a little bit as a lot of closures started to happen. So I know it's a long-winded answer, but I just wanted to give you the color. And I felt that slide was important because while there's a lot of optimism in our businesses, the final bullet point is the sobering reality that none of us know what's going to happen with this pandemic, both in the impact that it has on the economic outlook to our businesses, but also on what it's going to do to our global supply chains and our own manufacturing factories.