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Portland General Electric Company (POR)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 3, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to Portland General Electric Company’s Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today is Thursday, November 3, 2011. This call is being recorder and as such, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. (Operator instructions). For opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric’s Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Bill Valach, please go ahead sir.

Bill Valach

Management

Thank you Jay [ph]. And good morning everyone, and we’re very pleased that you’re able to join us today. Before we begin our discussion, this morning I’d like to make our customary statements regarding Portland General Electric’s written and oral disclosures and commentary. There will be statements in this call that are not based on historical facts and as such constitute forward-looking statements under current law. These statements are subject to factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made today. For a description in some of the factors that may occur that could cause such differences, the company requests that you read our most recent form 10-K and form 10-Qs. The form 10–Q for the third quarter 2011 was available this morning at portlandgeneral.com. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly in any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, information future events or otherwise. These safe harbor statements should be incorporated as any part – as part of any transcript of this call. Portland General Electric’s third quarter earnings were released before the market opened today, and the release is available at portlandgeneral.com. Leading our discussion today are Jim Piro, President and CEO, and Maria Pope, Senior Vice President of Finance, CFO and Treasurer. Jim will begin today’s presentation by providing a general overview of the quarter’s result, and our strategic capital projects, then Maria will provide more detail around the quarterly results, and key regulatory proceedings. Following prepared remarks, we will open the lines for your questions, and now it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Piro

President and CEO

Thank you, Bill, good morning and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Portland General Electric’s 2011 Third Quarter Earnings Call. We delivered strong operational performance in all sectors of our business during the quarter. As a result of the continued increase in energy received from hydro resources, combined with low cost purchase power, we were also able to effectively manage our power supply and economically displaced a significant amount of our thermal generation. We also continued to move forward to implement our business strategy to meet the growing energy needs of our customers. Now on to the quarter’s results. PGE’s net income for third quarter 2011 was $27 million or $0.36 per diluted share compared to $49 million or $0.65 per diluted share for the third quarter 2010. It is important to note that there were some non-recurring items that positively impact the third quarter last year with the most significant being $20 million pretax collection for SB 408. This amount was reversed in the fourth quarter 2010. We are reaffirming our full year 2011 earnings guidance of $1.90 to $2.05 per diluted share and plan to provide 2012 earnings guidance in our fourth quarter earnings release schedule for February of next year. Now let’s move on to the economic outlook in our operating area. We continue to see customer growth with the addition of 2400 new customers since the third quarter of 2010. According to the Oregon employment department, Oregon seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained flat at 9.6% in September. This compares to the U.S. average of 9.1%. Oregon’s private sector payroll grew faster then the national average with growth of 2.3% in the last nine months compared to the same period last year versus 1.6% for the U.S. The Oregon office of economic analysis forecast that jobs…

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jim. Good morning. Today I’ll cover financial results for the quarter, review operating performance, and provide an update on key regulatory items and conclude with liquidity and financing. Third Quarter 2011 net income was $27 million or $0.36 per diluted share, compared to $49 million or $0.65 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2010. This decrease is primarily due to a pretax $20 million collection recorded in the third quarter of 2010 related to the regulatory treatment of income taxes under Senate Bill 408. This collection was reversed in the fourth quarter of 2010. And as you know, Senate Bill 408 is now behind us. Net income was also impacted by a pretax $4 million loss related to a decline in the fair value of non–qualified benefit plan trust assets in the third quarter of 2011, compared to a pretax $3 million gain in the third quarter of 2010. Excluding the decrease for Senate Bill 408, total operating revenues for the third quarter we’re largely flat compared to the third quarter 2010. A 3.9% price increase authorized in the 2011 general rate case and a 1% price increase related to the shortened operating life and decommissioning cost of the Boardman’s coal plant, resulted in a revenue increase of $14 million. Additionally, retail energy deliveries increased approximately $5 million. These amounts were offset by several items, including a power cost adjustment mechanism or PCAM’s refund of $4 million in the third quarter of 2011. A refund reversal of $6 million in the third quarter of 2010 and the renewable adjustment clause revenue requirement increase of $8 million in the third quarter of 2010 related to Biglow Canyon phase three coming online. (inaudible) is working as expected. With residential use down in the third quarter of 2011, we recorded…

Jim Piro

Operator

Thank you, Maria. Third quarter of 2011 performance reflects our focus on operational excellence including continued flexibility in our power supply operations, high customer satisfaction and prudent management of our operating cost. We are moving forward with implementation of our Boardman 2020 plan as well as our IRP action plan. And we will continue to position the company for future investment opportunities that deliver value to our customers and a competitive return for our shareholders. Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). And we’ll go first to Sarah Akers with Wells Fargo. Sarah Akers –Wells Fargo: Hey, good morning.

Jim Piro

Operator

Good morning, Sarah. Sarah Akers –Wells Fargo: Can you talk about the revised schedule for the RFP? I know you said that the combined will put about a 6 to 12-month delay but in terms of – if you’re winning the – if you’re self-build option is a winning bid, when is the earliest you could begin construction on a peaking gas unit under the revised timeline?

Jim Piro

Operator

Generally, the schedule we’re looking at – and I’ll start with the combined capacity and energy RFP, we would hope to issue to draft RFP to the commission probably by the end of the year. We’re still working on trying to put those two RFPs together and get all the language developed. Then it’s going to take at least about a quarter we hope for the commission to issue an order on that RFP and that’s really the wildcard how long it takes to get to that regulatory process but by the end of the first quarter, the PUC has rendered their decision on the RFP, we would then start the process with the hope that by the end of the second quarter, we might have a short list. So that kind of generally what we’re looking at for the combined capacity and energy resource. In terms of the timing of the project, obviously, we’d have to win the bid first to have – give you a better clarity on when we would start construction. But right now, I think the plan would be to add the capacity resource first and then followed by the energy resource. So, we’ve allowed certain timeframes for those projects to come online and a lot of that will depend on what comes to the bidding process. On the renewable RFP again, we would hope to issue a draft RFP to the commission by the end of the year. Again, by the end of the second – by the end of the first quarter, we would hope to, again, have a commission decision on that RFP at which point we would start that RFP process and, again, we would hope by the middle of the year or the end of the second quarter to have a short list of renewable, you know, short list of projects for that renewable RFP So, you know, the process is still very fluid and the big wildcard is how long it’s going to take the commission to get through the process and issue a decision on the appropriateness of the RFP so that we could then start the process. On the renewable side, those goals we’re trying to hit is it by 2015, we have to get to 15% renewables and so we will add those selected resources as necessary to meet that 15%. Again, in the renewable RFP, we are planning to put a self-build option in to compete with market bids. Sarah Akers –Wells Fargo: Thank you very much. And then quickly on cascade crossing, how much of that project is – how much would your CapEx be of that project?

Jim Piro

Operator

You know, the project is somewhere between $800 million to $1 billion and it really depends on whether we build a single circuit or a double circuit line, and if we build a double circuit line, we would likely have a partner in the project that we take some of the capacity as we’ve mentioned before. We have been in discussions with Pacific Core and they do have interest – a share of the line. We’re also that working with Bonnabel Power on their interest in the line and what capacity they might want on that line, so much of that commercial discussion is going on. So, you know, if it’s a single circuit line just for our needs, it would be somewhere in the $800 million range, double circuit it’d be a billion but then we would take – we wouldn’t take the whole project down, there’d be other partners that would have a share of the project. So, you know, we’re still kind of in the fluid state of trying to figure out exactly the commercial operation – commercial arrangements with the various counter parties and that would form us on the exact sides of the project in the investment. Sarah Akers –Wells Fargo: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Hey, Jim. Hi, Maria.

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning.

Jim Piro

Operator

Hi, Neil. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: So on demand, it’s coming a little softer on a weather normal basis than was guided to this year. What do you attribute the Delta 2 especially in light of some of the good things we’re seeing in the local economy including the D1X project?

Jim Piro

Operator

You know, the softness in the third quarter was really in the residential sector and that could have been due to the culmination of weather and maybe additional conservation measures that customers might have been putting in place; we saw some rebound in September. So we generally feel like that maybe just be a short lift in the curve. We are seeing some very good activity in the commercial market obviously with Intel D1X project and the supporting people that will bring in facilities to support that project. That’s going to add a significant number of jobs. They also – other company SolarWorld continue to look at expansions and we have another solar company looking in the Portland area to construct facility. So, generally, we see some positive signs, Bowen is doing well. That’s sort of our large customers here and they’re doing well also. So there’s some really good signs in some of the commercial industrial sectors and so I think with the softness in the residential market might have been a combination of just the conservation measures people are putting in place during the summer and we didn’t have really warm weather also so that could have been some of the impact. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: The long term annual load growth forecast I think is 1.7%, right, including energy efficiency. Does this make you – you think about that guidance in any way?

Jim Piro

Operator

No, not really. I think we feel like, you know, over the long term those numbers look right, you know, and a lot of them will depend on how quickly Intel and some of those customers come online and expand their facility. So there might be some timing issues as they continue to, you know, get that facility constructed and in the service. So, there may be some, you know, some moving around that number but a lot of it will be just timing issues a little bit in terms of what Intel is doing. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Got it. And then on the O&M side, what are the levers that you have over the next couple of years as we – as we get through at least some period of time without a rate case to manage the return?

Jim Piro

Operator

Two things that – maybe detail around some of the other corporate cost but we are going to a pretty significant efficiency effort within the company, the streamliner operations by using technology and so we’re doing a number of projects in the company that will improve our performance and get better service at lower cost. And those projects are starting to come online next year and will continue for the next couple of years. That will hopefully help moderate our cost. We have a number of retirements because we have an aging work force about a third of our employees potentially retiring in the next seven to eight years that we can take advantage of those retirements by using technology and up scaling our employees and taking advantage of that. So those are some of the things we’re doing on the operation side. The other thing is we’re looking on the generation side for a continued efficiency improvements of the plant through generation excellence and reliability center maintenance to really improve our plant performance. Maria you want to talk on the purpose side?

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

Sure. You know, I think we really have cost reductions in every area of the company. And there’s a very disciplined effort to be able to capture these on a sustainable basis. As Jim mentioned, we’re leveraging new technology. We have new systems being put in place, having just implemented on the corporate side new supply chain, financial, and other related systems that are already reaping some benefits. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: And then, finally, rate case timing. How are you thinking about it? I know some of the moving pieces with the RFPs have to change the way you’re thinking about the timing.

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

In addition, we’re very fortunate to be in a service territory where there is quite a bit of growth coming online, led by Intel but really across many of our industrial sectors. And with that combined with really prudent and careful cost reductions leave us to have some flexibility around our rate cases. And so, we’re currently looking at a rate case in about 2014 that would be the effective test year, which is pretty consistent with what we talked about on the call last time. Neil Mehta – Goldman Sachs: Got it. Thank you so much, Jim, Maria.

Jim Piro

Operator

Thanks, Neil.

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Moving right up to James Bellessa with DA Davidson. James Bellessa – DA Davidson: Good morning.

Jim Piro

Operator

Good morning, Jim [ph]. James Bellessa – DA Davidson: The energy efficiency question was answered. So, I have two other questions. The pattern of depreciation and amortization last year and this year with their first and second quarters is at one level. And then it jumps up in the third quarter. Is there something seasonal that happens in the third quarter?

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

What happens in particular is that the amortization of Boardman came online and so that jumped it up. We also had some slight adjustments in other miscellaneous areas in the Third Quarter. But you should see roughly the run rate would be pretty consistent going forward with where we are right now, as Boardman will be there through the balance of its life. James Bellessa – DA Davidson: And the tax rate, do you have any advice on what tax rate we should be looking at going forward?

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

Sure. As you probably have figured it out, our tax rate, year-to-date is about 26% and for the quarter was about 29%. The biggest issue affecting our tax rate is really production tax credits and those that we’re receiving as the wind blows at our Biglow Canyon wind farm. But on average, we’ve been on an annual basis just under about 30%. That’s sort of what I would use for your model. James Bellessa – DA Davidson: Thank you very much.

Jim Piro

Operator

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). We’ll go next to Mark Barnett with Morningstar. Mark Barnet – Morningstar: Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Jim Piro

Operator

Good morning, Mark. Mark Barnet – Morningstar: A lot of the questions are already answered, so just a couple of smaller issues. On the industrial customer account, I know you’ve had a lot of positive developments there. But is the lower number of the industrial account due mostly to switching to direct access?

Maria Pope

Chief Financial Officer

No. At this point in time, that’s not the case. There were not any – in the quarter there were not any movement on direct to access. What we saw was just slight changes. They’re for about 182, 158 and that’s really on a year–to–day basis were at about 489. And so, those are customers who were moving – if you can see direct access. And then total industrial is 931 for the quarter. So some movement, but not a big deal overall. Mark Barnet – Morningstar: Okay. And then I guess so far year-to-date hydro has been fairly strong. I’m wondering if that close conditions have continued thus far into the third quarter or if there’s kind of a change?

Jim Piro

Operator

Well, it’s starting to rain again and we don’t know if this is a trend. We tend to look at the weather patterns. And again, this looks like a La Niña year coming up which tends to suggest it’ll be wetter in the northwest. But you know, those are just current projections and we’re not ready to take them to the bank yet. Mark Barnet – Morningstar: Okay. All right. I appreciate the colors. Thank you.

Jim Piro

Operator

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instruction).

Jim Piro

Operator

It looks like we have no further questions. We appreciate your interest in Portland General Electric and look forward to seeing some of you next week at EEI. And invite you to join us when we report on fourth quarter 2011 results in February 2012. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation.