Earnings Labs

Portland General Electric Company (POR)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 28, 2014

$51.47

+0.10%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.31%

1 Week

+2.85%

1 Month

+4.21%

vs S&P

-0.22%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Portland General Electric Company's Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today is Tuesday, October 28, 2014. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric's Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Bill Valach. Please go ahead, sir.

William Valach

Management

Thank you, Shannon, and good morning everyone. We are pleased that you're able to join us today. And before we begin our discussion this morning, I’d like to remind you that we have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussions, and we’ll be referencing that presentation throughout the call. The slides are also available on our website at portlandgeneral.com. Referring to slide two, I'd also like to make our customary statements regarding Portland General Electric’s written and oral disclosures and commentary. There will be statements in this call that are not based on historical facts and, as such, constitute forward-looking statements under current law. These statements are subject to factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made today. For a description of some of the factors that may occur, that could cause such differences, the company requests that you read our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. Portland General Electric’s third quarter earnings were released via our earnings press release, and the Form 10-Q before the market opened today, and the release is available at our website at portlandgeneral.com. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And these Safe Harbor statements should be incorporated as part of any transcript on this call. As shown on slide three, leading our discussion today are Jim Piro, President and CEO and Jim Lobdell, Senior Vice President of Finance, CFO and Treasurer. Jim Piro will begin today's presentation by providing an update on our operating performance, our outlook for 2014, service area economy and strategic initiatives. Then Jim Lobdell will provide more detail around the third quarter's results, and discuss our 2015 general rate case. And following those prepared remarks, we will open our lines up for your questions. And now it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to, Jim Piro.

Jim Piro

Management

Thanks Bill. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Portland General Electric's third quarter earnings call. As presented on slide four, we recorded net income of $39 million or $0.47 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2014, compared with net income of $31 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2013. PGE continues to demonstrate strong operational performance across the company in 2014. Construction of our three new generating resources is proceeding on time and on budget. We have now settled all items for our 2015 general rate case with the OPUC staff and interveners and we are now in the range of our full year 2014 earnings guidance by $0.05 from $2.05 to $2.20 per diluted share to $2.10 to $2.20 per diluted share. Now for an operational update on slide five. Our generating plants operated very well in the quarter, with PGE generation availability at 92%. Customer satisfaction remains strong with our national rankings in the top quartile for residential customers, and top decile for general business and key customers. As mentioned in our last call, this quarter we undertook a project to exchange 70,000 residential meters in our service area that do not meet PGE's operational and safety standards. Work is over 95% complete and on track to be finished by the end of this week. We plan to capitalize the majority of replacement costs which are estimated to be approximately $7 million to $8 million. Turning to slide six. Now for an update on the economy in our customers. PGE experienced a 4.7% increase in energy deliveries this quarter compared to Q3 2013. This increase is on a weather adjusted basis, and excludes one large paper customer. We continue to see positive economic trends in our service…

Jim Lobdell

Management

Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 11, as Jim mentioned, the third quarter of 2014 we recorded net income of $39 million or $0.47 per diluted share, compared with net income of $31 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2013. The increase in earnings was driven by an increase in price and energy deliveries, lower net variable power costs, and an increase in the allowance for equity funds used during construction for the company's three new generating resources. Increased energy deliveries were driven by normal weather combined with increased demand from new construction and high tech industry expansion. Moving to slide 12, total retail revenues for the third quarter of 2014 increased $31 million to $434 million. This increase was primarily driven by a $17 million increase from higher sales volume, $16 million from the January 1st price increase and a $5 million increase from the collection of deferred cost associated with four capital projects. These increases were partially offset by $6 million estimated refund to customers related to the decoupling mechanism. Total actual energy deliveries for the third quarter of 2014 were 4.1% higher than the third quarter of 2013. Our customer segments saw increased energy deliveries, as residential up 5.2%, commercial up 3.5% and industrial energy deliveries up 3.6%. Purchase power and fuel increased by $12 million consisting of $21 million from an 11% increase in total system load, partially offset by $9 million from a 4% decrease in the average variable power cost per megawatt hour. Net variable power cost, which consists of purchased power and fuel expense, net of wholesale revenues, decreased $5 million for the third quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter of 2013. The decrease in net variable power cost was driven largely by improved thermal plant…

Jim Piro

Management

In summary, we continue to focus on successful execution of our business strategy, including completing our three new generating resources on time and on budget, achieving fair and reasonable results on our 2015 general rate case, and ensuring high quality, reliable, and safe operations across our system, that delivers value to our customers and our shareholders. And now operator, we're ready for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Paul Ridzon of KeyBanc Capital Markets. You may begin.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Can you refresh us on what you expect the tax rate to be for the year?

Jim Lobdell

Management

Effective tax rate for the year we expect to be about 25% to 30%.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And how do you expect to draw the equity down -- in one lump sum, or kind of trickle out as you start to spend more capital?

Jim Piro

Management

Paul, probably it would be more towards the lump sum, towards the back end.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Towards the back end of the first half?

Jim Piro

Management

Yes.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then I don't know if you quantified weather, but what did weather do in the quarter on a per-share basis, if you have that?

Jim Piro

Management

It’s about $0.03.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Positive, I take it?

Jim Piro

Management

Yes.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And then, lastly, you mentioned a $6 million refund. Was that related to prior periods, or prior years?

Jim Piro

Management

$6 million refund during the quarter?

Jim Lobdell

Management

You talking about the PCAM? Is that what you are asking about, or -

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

I think it was decoupling.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Okay. Yeah, that would be the year-to-date number.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. So, that’s always in this current year?

Jim Lobdell

Management

Yeah.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Thanks Paul.

Jim Piro

Management

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sarah Akers with Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Jim Piro

Management

Good morning, Sarah.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Good morning. In the past, you have talked about a new customer billing system for about $100 million. Can you update the status of that project? And are there any other incremental investments that might bolster the CapEx in the 2017-2018 timeframe?

Jim Piro

Management

We continue to pursue replacement of our customer information system as well as what’s called the meter data consolidate, which is the interface between our smart meter system and the customer information system. So, we have approval for that project, we’ve got good support from the regulatory agency in terms of moving that project forward and it’s now included in our CapEx forecast.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Okay, so the 14 to 18 CapEx I think went up about $125 million, so that's what's going on there?

Jim Piro

Management

Most of that is the billing system, plus other adjustments to our capital forecast.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Got it. And then, in the absence of any new projects in the 2017-2018 timeframe, what are your thoughts on share buybacks there?

Jim Piro

Management

It’s too early to tell at this point. We’re going to continue to evaluate our capital needs and our capital expenditure program and as we get closer to that we’ll look at that – along with other options in terms of keeping our capital structure in kind of that 50-50 range. A lot of it will depend on how the IRP works through this next IRP workthrough. We want to leave ourselves flexibility so if we do decide to construct additional resources, we’ll have the right capital structure to do that.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Got it. And then the last one, the guidance raise appears to be supported by the lower O&M. But then you also have the $9 million PCAM benefit year-to-date, and then it looks like a little bit of weather benefit. Are there any offsets to those PCAM and weather benefits that are preventing something more than the $0.05 guidance raise?

Jim Lobdell

Management

Sarah, we still got another quarter to go and it’s always a volatile quarter with the weather and the winter timeframe. So, right now I’d say no, they are not.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may begin.

Perfect. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Russo of Ladenburg Thalmann. You may begin.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Jim Piro

Management

Hi, Brian.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Hello Brian.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Could you just remind us how much capacity is being retired at Boardman, and then how much additional capacity you need to meet the 2020 RPS?

Jim Piro

Management

Boardman is about 585 megawatts. We own 90% - we’ll own 90% when we execute the last 10% share. We have our purchase option in front of the commission which we expect them to approve which will execute by year end. That will put us at 90%with the other 10% owned by Idaho Power. So, you take 585x the 90 and you get our share of Boardman, in times of that 80% - 85% capacity factor. So, that’s the piece that we’re going to have to address in the next IRP. And there's a lot of interest in both gas as well as additional renewable to replace that. We're going to have to run a number of portfolios. We’re also looking at the 111 (d) rules and how that plays out. So, that’s a whole analysis that we’re going to be doing for the next IRP. In terms of the renewables, every 5% is worth about roughly 100 megawatts - 100 average megawatts. We should be about 300 megawatts of name plate if you assume about one-third capacity factor. We're primarily looking at wind, but we’re also as you know we’re doing some research at Boardman on biomass, but that’s very, pretty much R&D at this point. But we’re looking for diversity on our renewables. But that’s kind of the magnitude of what we’re going to be looking for in the next integrated resource plan. We’ll continue to support energy efficiency. We’re going to have to do some work on the demand side. We continue to look at demand side programs to control our load and to make it better load to meet. So, those are the kinds of things we’ll be looking at the next IRP. We’re also – to extent we add more wind resources. We’re going to have to look at additional gas, flexible resources like Port Westward Unit 2, as we will need capacity to back that up.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you. And I know there are restrictions on increasing the dividend while the forward sale is still awaiting settlements. But when we look, say, in the second half of 2015, and we look at where your payout ratio is today, in the low-50% range, is it reasonable to assume a meaningful step-up in the dividend when we get to the second half of 2015?

Jim Lobdell

Management

So, we typically look at the dividend in our May Board meeting and the Board understands kind of what the low end of the guidance. We’re going to evaluate that as a time, we’ll look at all the factors and we will launch a state within our guidance between 50% and 70%. So, I can’t handicap how the Board is going to look at it, but we’ve had really good conversations around the dividend and we’ll make a decision in May and move forward. But, the Board is committed to understand the value of the dividend to our shareholders.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mark Barnett of Morningstar. You may begin.

Mark Barnett - Morningstar

Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone.

Jim Piro

Management

Good morning, Mark.

Mark Barnett - Morningstar

Analyst

Just a couple of questions, one on the rate case filing. I've seen some of the documents. But can you talk about -- there were some revisions, and I know some of them are non-cash. But are there going to be any challenges in those numbers to hitting the allowed ROE in the filing? Is that something that you would be comfortable talking about?

Jim Lobdell

Management

What I will say is that - a good part of it – I mean we recently went out with $81 million with a request and some of it is cash and some of it is non-cash. And as you know we ended up with $17 million at the end as far as the net after accounting for the credits. And embedded in that is a change in base business of about $41 million. Now, as I was saying, a good part of that is appreciation which isn’t going to impact us. And then there were a lot of updates associated with power cost and loads and project timing and things of that nature. So, really gets down to a small number of that, we’re going to have to adjust our own infrastructure in order to deliver alignment with that GRC case, at this particular point. So, I think that we can meet the challenges going into 2015.

Jim Piro

Management

Now there’s a couple of items in the rate case that we typically don’t get recovery for, the incentives for officers and that portion of the other employees incentive plans, that tends to have a difference between our allowed and our actual ROE. Our corporate contributions to non-profits and others and lobbying expenses, those - and image advertisings. So those ones are the typical ones, they’re not big, I think we‘ve typically talked about 100 basis points spread between our allowed and our actual because of those disallowances which are still - real expenses for the company, that number is going down as our rate base grows and Jim I don’t know if you can provide any guidance on that.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Yeah, there is about 65 basis points where the difference is, what it usually accumulates to. And that's by the time we get to 2017.

Jim Piro

Management

Did that make sense?

Mark Barnett - Morningstar

Analyst

Yes, no, thanks a lot. I really appreciate that detail. And if I could, just one more sort of bigger-picture question. Your long-term load growth numbers, when you are looking at your generation needs for these next processes, it's a fairly large impact from energy efficiency you have baked in for 2014. Is this the kind of thing where you are still hitting the low-hanging fruit, or do you expect to keep that sort of a run rate over your load planning horizon?

Jim Piro

Management

We've been working with the energy trust on this specific item trying to understand the supply curve as we go out in time, especially with low gas price environment. We’ve been doing about 35 average megawatts a year which is that 1.5% we’ve been talking about. When you look at the supply curves over time, that number starts going down in the later years. It’s not next year but probably year after that, it starts diminishing as we’ve been doing those for a long period of time. So absent any new technology those numbers are dropping off probably down in the 20 average megawatt range more in the 1% range and maybe even lower unless new technology comes about. So, the energy trust and PGE's continue to work on what that supply curve look like, what measures might be cost efficient. But in this low gas price environment many measures don’t become economic. And so those are things that we’ll be evaluating in our integrated resource planning process in the next cycle. But, so it does kind of tail off. And if you go out many, many years it gets very low, absent any new technology changes.

Mark Barnett - Morningstar

Analyst

Great. Thanks for all of the detail, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Andrew Weisel of Macquarie Capital. You may begin.

Jim Piro

Management

Good morning, Andrew.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Hi, Andrew.

Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital

Analyst

First, a small one. The increase in the base capital spending that Sarah had asked about -- was that included in the settled 2014 rate case, or will that be rolled into next year's rate case?

Jim Piro

Management

The customer information system will not be completed until early 2017, I think maybe after the first quarter sometime, first or second quarter. So, it's not in any rate case at this point, and would not be part of the 2016 rate case the way we contemplate it today as of 2016 test year. So, we would evaluate that in the 2017 time frame and the real question there is, given all the other changes going on with depreciation and all the other things, we will look at 2017 to determine whether we need to file a rate case for 2017 to cover the cost of that or it can be covered under the normal operations. So, but it wouldn’t really show in service till 2017.

Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital

Analyst

Got it, that's helpful. Okay, then on next year's rate case, you mentioned Carty is obviously the big one. From a high level, can you talk about what some of the other puts and takes might be? Would there be any opportunities for credits that might offset the impact, like you found in the cash one? And just from a very high level, what the impact on customer rates might look like.

Jim Piro

Management

So, Jim will give you the increase for Port West, I mean for Carty. We’re still looking at 2016 to see how the year shakes out. We’re just going to the O&M budgets at this point and the load forecast, all those have to be factored into our kind of thinking. The number for Carty has come down. I think we were talking 6% to 8% before and now we’re down to 4% to 6%. So, it’s come down as we’ve got better estimates of the capital and depreciation in all the components of that project. So, we will look at that and then we’ll make a decision here in the next month or so on the actual structure of the rate case, but right now, just as the throes of going to the O&M budgets and getting the load forecast for 2016 so that we can make an informed decision on how the overall year shakes out.

Jim Lobdell

Management

In regards to the credit for the DOE decommissioning refund, that’ll be about $17 million that will carry over into that time frame as well. And then also in 2016 there will be some of the BPA regional Power Act fund as well. That will be about $6 million.

Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital

Analyst

Great, that's very helpful. Appreciate the detail. Then, lastly, going back to the dividend, I know you can't get too specific, and it's hard to predict what the Board will go with. But is your thinking more along the lines of accelerating the annual growth? Or might it be more of a one-time step-up, either in 2015 or 2016 when your construction winds down?

Jim Piro

Management

Again, I can’t tell, the Board will decide this. But I think our sense is that we want to continue to show growth in the divided over time and build into it rather than just do a big step function and then go back to the old numbers. But that’s something we’ll have to visit with the Board. I clearly think they understand that we’re at the low end of the payout ratio as you look at this year and they understand the importance of the dividend and we’ll look at that. So, I can't give you any more specific guidance on that. But, we know we like to continue to grow the dividend and do that in a planful way so that we can sustain it.

Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow up from Paul Ridzon of KeyBanc Capital Markets. You may begin.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

My question was answered. Thank you.

Jim Lobdell

Management

Hey Paul one other thing on decoupling, just to clarify it was the third quarter of 2014 that had a $6 million refund and year-to-date it’s about little over $3 million.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Piro for closing remarks.

Jim Piro

Management

Thank you. We appreciate your interest in Portland General Electric. And we look forward to meeting with many of you at EEI in November in Dallas. So, have a great day. Thanks.