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Power Integrations, Inc. (POWI)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 2, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Jody and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Power Integrations' Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Director of Investor Relations, Joe Shiffler, you may begin your conference.

Joe Shiffler - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon and thanks for joining us for this rear morning conference call. With me today, as usual, are Balu Balakrishnan, President and CEO of Power Integrations; and Sandeep Nayyar, our Chief Financial Officer. As explained in last night's press release, Power Integrations adopted FASB's new revenue recognition standard effective January 1 of this year. The new standard requires us to switch from the sell-through method of accounting for distribution sales to the sell-in method, under which revenues are recognized upon shipment instead of being deferred until the product is sold to an end customer. In order to help bridge between the two accounting methods and ensure comparability between periods, we have made available the past eight quarters worth of financial data recast as if the new standard had been in effect for those periods. While the effects of the accounting change are small, the recast data itself is voluminous as it includes full income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements and non-GAAP reconciliations. We chose to have the conference call this morning in order to give you a chance to look at the data and perhaps incorporate it in your financial models prior to the call. If you haven't yet had a chance to look for the recast data, you can find it in the spreadsheet on our investor website, investors.power.com, and a document labeled Recast Financials and also in the Form 8-K that we filed yesterday. Our discussion of the Q4 results on the call today and in last night's press release is based on the results under the old revenue recognition rules which were in effect until the end of the quarter, and which were the basis for the Q4 guidance that we gave back in October. When we discuss the outlook for Q1 of…

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Joe, and good morning. Our quarterly revenues exceeded the $100 million mark again this quarter coming in just over $101 million. That's up 16% year-over-year and brings our full year growth rate to 13%, well above the analog semiconductor industry, which is estimated to have grown at a mid-single-digit rate in 2016. Our growth in 2016 was broad-based, coming from communications, consumer, and industrial end markets, each with its own unique secular drivers. In communications, revenues grew nearly 30% in 2016, led by the ongoing ramp of our InnoSwitch products in smartphone chargers. Smartphone OEMs continue to specify chargers that deliver significantly more power than the 5 watt chargers that were standard issue just a couple of years ago. Rising power levels create serious challenges for our power supply designers, requiring much higher levels of integration and energy efficiency in order to maintain the small contractors to which we are all accustomed. Our InnoSwitch products satisfy these demands extremely well and have been widely adopted by smartphone OEMs and their charger suppliers. As a result, InnoSwitch has ramped faster than any product in our history, going from just $5 million in 2014 to more than $40 million in 2016 with nearly all of that revenue coming from smartphone applications. The consumer end market, our largest revenue category, was also a major contributor in 2016 with growth in the mid-teens. Growth was driven by appliances, where we are not only winning strong market share, but also seeing rising dollar content as appliances continue to evolve from mechanical machines into intelligent electronic devices. Industrial revenues also added to our growth in 2016 with revenues up mid-single-digits for the year. Here again, a key theme is the electronification of products such as utility meters and light bulbs, which until recently never needed…

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Balu and good morning. As Joe mentioned in the introduction, my recap of the Q4 results will be based on the sell-through accounting method which was in effect until the end of 2016 and which was the basis for our Q4 guidance. I will then comment briefly on the recast data we released yesterday which presents the past two years of results as if the sell-in method had been in effect. Finally, I will touch on the Q1 outlook which is based on the sell-in method. Looking first at the Q4 results, revenues were $101.1 million, up 16% year-over-year. As expected, revenues were down 3% sequentially, with lower industrial and consumer revenues more than offsetting sequential growth in the communication and computing end markets. Revenue mix for the quarter was 35% consumer, 30% communications, 29% industrial, and 6% computer. From a gross margin standpoint, that's a less favorable mix than we had in Q3, resulting in a decline of 40 basis points in our non-GAAP gross margin, which came in at 50.2%. Non-GAAP operating expenses were flat on a sequential basis at $30.7 million, coming in slightly below our projections due mainly due to the timing of head count additions and capital expenditures. Non-GAAP operating margin was 19.8% for the quarter. We recognized a non-GAAP tax rate of 1.2% for the quarter in order to bring our full effective tax rate to 3.4%. Non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $20.2 million or $0.67 per diluted share. That's up from $0.58 in the year ago quarter, an increase of 16%. We generated $27.7 million in cash flow from operations in the quarter, with capital expenditures of $4 million. Cash and investments on the balance sheet totaled $250.5 million at quarter end, up about $24 million during the quarter.…

Joe Shiffler - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Sandeep. We'll open it up now for questions-and-answers. Operator, would you please give the instructions for the Q&A session?

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of David Williams with Drexel Hamilton. Your line is open.

David Williams - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I guess first off, whenever we are thinking about the gross margin, and thank you for the color, linearly, how much, I guess, impact are you seeing from a mix shift perspective going through the year and how are you kind of thinking, I guess, about the infrastructure revenue, some of the industrial revenue, and the comp business? How should we think about margins as we go through maybe this year and into next year in terms of what kind of lift you could get as you start seeing higher dollar or higher margin segments start to pick up a bit?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thanks, David. Good morning. The way we are modeling at this point of time because it's a little early for the whole year, yen and mix are obviously the things that can impact us. The way we are modeling at this point of time is that the second quarter would be kind of similar to the first quarter, and then gradually uptick in the third quarter and gradually coming to the 50% level by the fourth quarter. The mix if you look at the whole year, I think would be relatively similar to the mix of 2016, though with a slight slant for the full year I would say towards communication and the computer segment, with a continued strength in rapid charging, and with the introduction of the next-generation InnoSwitch, which will probably have meaningful revenues by the fourth quarter, helping us in the computer segment.

David Williams - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then from a revenue perspective, we have heard several other suppliers talk about handset delays they are seeing out of some Asia OEMs. Are you experiencing any of that? And is that may be tempering some growth that you might have otherwise seen in 1Q?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

I think there have been some shortages at some of the customers. But so far, that has not been a major impact for us. There could be some, but we don't think it's going to be very significant. We think the communications will grow through the year, and as a percentage, communications will grow slightly this year, and so will the computer because of our entry into new markets like monitors and notebooks.

David Williams - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Great. I appreciate that. And then maybe if you could just kind of rank order where you expect to see the growth this year amongst your major submarkets?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

I would say communications will still be our number one growth. As a percentage, computer could be higher, but in magnitude, computer is only 6%. So, the growth there will be in dollars, will be smaller. But we have one designs in monitors with our next-generation Inno 3 product. In fact it's a Tier 1 monitor and TV manufacturer. So we have one designs in both monitors and TVs. The monitor of course goes into computer segment, so we expect the computer segment to grow nicely. But we also expect industrial and consumer segments to grow.

David Williams - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks for that. I will jump back in the queue.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, guys. Now that you have changed to a sell in revenue recognition, do you by default have a little more visibility, the full-year you just talked about, the end market exposure but do you have more visibility even on a quarter-by-quarter basis in how you get to the flat revenues sequentially from an end market perspective?

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

It's basically pretty hard to get a full year as you know and that's part of the reason we don't give. What we do is we model how the end markets are going to behave based on the markets being normal with our market share and do what I call probabilities, and based on these models, that's where we come to the end market mix. But as you know, it's difficult to predict for the whole year in our business. It's just the probabilities put together and the strength that we are seeing in the InnoSwitch, in rapid charging, plus the design wins that Balu has talked about and the potential of success, we continue to see. However we believe we will continue to grow in the consumer end side with the success we have in consumer with appliances and have success in our industrial segment with high-power and led lighting and meters and tools.

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Ross, just to clarify from a revenue point of view it's obviously easier because we know how much we ship. So we will know our revenue a little bit earlier. From a POS point of view we still have to wait for the distributors to report to us. So POS will still take a few days after the quarter. But revenue will be known a little bit earlier.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. I guess as my follow-up, on the gross margin side of things Sandeep your trajectory throughout the year is helpful that you gave to an earlier question. If we dig a little bit into the mix side I know you have different end markets growing and they carry different margins and if comps is growing faster generally that's a headwind. But correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall the second generation of the InnoSwitch was going to be not only higher power, I address higher power but also have a lower cost basis to it. I know that's late in the year, but how do we think about a not end market but rather a product driven mix effect on gross margin? Is that going to be a positive or negative as we go through 2017 and maybe even into 2018?

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Well it will be a positive for the reasons you mentioned and that's why we think in Q4 we should get to the low end of our model which is roughly around 50%, assuming the yen stays where it is and everything else being equal. And going into next year, 2018, we think we will stay at the low-end of our range, the 50% to 55% range. Again knowing what we know and knowing everything else being equal, we think we can stay within our range but on the low-end of it.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. I guess my final question would be you highlighted earlier in your transcript about how you grew relative to the analog market, by roughly seven points, eight points faster than the market last year which was impressive. If we think about that in a relative basis in 2017, what do you think would cause that delta versus the broader market to either expand further or shrink on a year-over-year basis?

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

So, as we have said we have a lot of secular drivers that are enabling us to grow. And we are also expanding on our SAM as Balu indicated on his script, which has enabled us to grow faster. However as we have said consistently, to look at our business on a three year to five year horizon, on an average we will grow low double-digit.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

You're welcome, Ross.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg of Stifel. Your line is open. Tore Svanberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yes. Thank you. First question for Balu. Balu, you talked about fast charging, the penetration now being about 30% but you're also expecting pretty hefty penetration here in 2017. Could you add a little bit more color on that? And you also sound like USB-PD is finally moving. Any data points you can share with us there?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Absolutely. Clearly, everybody is moving towards fast charging. It is become pretty much a requirement for next-generation phones if they don't already have it. So the adoption is definitely accelerating as we see it. And I think we have mentioned this before. Until very recently, people have had their own protocols or a combination of protocols, but we are definitely seeing a trend where most of the cell phone companies or cell phone OEMs are now focusing in on USB-PD standard. Some of them have already adopted it. And I think the first USB-PD charger came with the Pixel phone from Google, which by the way uses our product. But we are clearly seeing a trend where people are abandoning their proprietary protocols and moving towards USB-PD. And USB-PD itself has been evolving. And I think it's gotten to the point where it has stabilized and it has actually added some additional features specifically for fast charging or direct charging. And so we see that trend will continue. And the advantage of that for us is the content is even higher. It requires variable voltage, programmable voltage. All of that is going to be very helpful to us. It also means that they have to redesign existing chargers with designs over to USB-PD. So we see this as a long-term trend that will help us continue to grow in the cell phone market for the next several years. Tore Svanberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Very good. And you mentioned that design win with Inno 2 for the monitor. Should we expect also Inno 2 to get some design wins? I think you've mentioned before you're targeting tablets as well. Is that something that we could already see this year?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Yes. Just to clarify. The next generation we call as Inno 3. The current generation is Inno 2 because we had an InnoSwitch internally. So the Inno 3, we haven't launched it broadly yet, because we are focusing on some high-volume opportunities. We have about 40 designs that are in progress. And a few of them actually have gone into production. And this few production designs are with a Tier 1 TV and monitor manufacturer. And it is – we've got the design win. We expect this to go into production and generate revenue by the end of the year. And so we are excited about that, because this one actually goes into computer and the consumer market. Now, I think I have mentioned this before. The Inno 3 dramatically expands the power level of the InnoSwitch. The Inno 2 only went up to 20 watts or 25 watts. Inno 3 will go to about 50 watts to 55 watts. And that allows us to get into a number of new applications, including notebooks and tablets. So we do expect some revenue from those areas by the – let's say Q4 of this year we should start seeing revenue. It takes about six to nine months for people to go into full production. So we are seeing lot of design activity in those areas, and we will keep you updated on the progress. Tore Svanberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yes, thank you for that Balu. And then on the industrial market, especially the high-power part of industrial, that business can be a little bit volatile depending on the programs it's tied to, but how should we think about high-power in the industrial bucket for 2017?

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

We think 2017 will be a really good year for high-power. We are modeling double-digit growth, driven by high-voltage DC transmission systems that are being installed in China. China has a very aggressive plan to put a new, brand-new grid in the entire country using high-voltage DC transmission, and I think that's going to be a significant driver for us. But we are also seeing a growth in the wind power and solar energy. And all of those will enable us to grow high-power revenue based on current forecast in double digits this year. Tore Svanberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Very good. Last question for Sandeep, and Sandeep thank you for all the recast information. It's really helpful. How should we think about OpEx in 2017? I know, in the past you've kind of talked about growing OpEx at 60% of your revenue growth rate. So as we look at 2017, should we still think about that same number?

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

The way I would look at it is we've given you guidance for Q1. In Q2, you will see a sequential growth because that's where the merit increase happens, and then Q3 and Q4 kind of flattens out. Our long-term model is the 60% but as you can see in 2016, we spent a little less, and that was because of the timing of head count additions, which will flow into this year. But the long-term model is pretty much there. So this year it could be a little bit more, because we spent a little less in 2016. But on average if you look on a three to five-year horizon, the model still is at 60%. Tore Svanberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Sounds good. Thank you very much.

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Tore.

Operator

Operator

We do have a follow-up question from the line of Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, guys. Just a couple of housekeeping ones, looks like the stock-based comp guide for the first quarter is down. Can you explain a little bit about what's going on there, and then any full-year guidance on that? And then the second question would be what are your expectations for CapEx for the year?

Sandeep Nayyar - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

So, typically Ross, the reason of being a little down is the timing, because the majority of the employee grants happens in the second quarter. So I think it's just a timing issue of how that flows. As far as capital expenditures – and the other reason is if you look at it in 2016, our performance PSUs performed at a pretty high level because of how our performance was. So when you start off the year you are estimating at certain levels and that's another reason. As far as capital expenditures, for the last two years we have been spending at about $12 million, if you remember our average is $18 million to $20 million. This year we will be spending about $25 million or $30 million because of the investments we're making, not only to add capacity, but also to make some investments in our infrastructure as we look to grow our company.

Ross C. Seymore - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Balu Balakrishnan - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Ross.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to the presenters.

Joe Shiffler - Power Integrations, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thank you. Thanks everyone for listening. There will be a replay of this call available on our website, investors.power.com. Thanks again for listening and good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.