Jayson Penn
Analyst · Heather Jones Research LLC. Please go ahead
Thanks Heather. I would say this. I'm not sure if we can estimate the timing in here. As you know, we estimated this ASF to really start in a Q4 of '19. It's rolled into the Q1 I think due to the coronavirus. You're going to see some more rolling again. We haven't seen any impact on on chicken imports due to the coronavirus. We have seen some impact of the reduced flows into China that have created some excess supplies on the market. And I'd say especially in the U.S. pork market, the pricing has been amplified because of the trade expected an increase in China purchases in February out of the U.S. and these purchases really haven't materialized. We do know that the Chinese government is seeking to expand meat imports to stabilize the domestic supply, but we know that beef remains at 20% higher this time than last year. Pork is 127% higher, chickens up to 16% of a very low base; and again while we've not seen any impacts directly, there are supply chain concerns we're monitoring pretty carefully and not only regards to U.S. shipments but our UK pork shipments as well in China. And we're seeing these logistics, including some block shipments of animal feed. So, we're seeing some issues on travel restrictions within China. We don't know the extent of the chicken market, but there's some calling going on in China. We know that there's some restrictions also on some live supply blockage as well. So, we're starting to see some of this impact that's impacting the lives supply chain in China. And what we do believe is that, when the virus is under control and the lockdown practices remove, trade flows are going to resume; and when they do whether that's Q2 or Q3, we believe that demand is going to recover more quickly than the supplies. So, we believe that when demand starts to debottom, we'll start to see that supply to recover, but it will take a little bit more time for that supply seem to recover and this is where I see the rolling effects of the ASF. I think we're going to start to see it. We're already shipping to China today. We have a heavy demand for our China products. I think you might have read even as late as yesterday, Heather, that there is going to be some restrictions removed on some tariffs. So, you could see some tariff restrictions being removed on that 30% that was 35%. So, if that happens, we'll start to see this movement out of the U.S. relatively quicker rather than later, and it'll give us an edge to compete against Brazil, who is also shifting meat into China. So, I think due to the timing, Heather, there's a lot of different factors that are coming into play here.