Earnings Labs

PPL Corporation (PPL)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 4, 2016

$38.69

-0.76%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the PPL Corporation Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Bergstein, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

Joseph P. Bergstein - Vice President-Investor Relations and Treasurer

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the PPL conference call on fourth quarter and year-end 2015 results and our general business outlook. We are providing slides of this presentation on our website at www.pplweb.com. Any statements made in this presentation that our future operation results or other future events are forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results or events to differ is contained in the appendix to this presentation and in the company's SEC filing. We will refer to earnings from ongoing operations or ongoing earnings are non-GAAP measure on this call. For a reconciliation to the GAAP measure you should refer to the press release, which has been posted on our website and has been filed with the SEC. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Bill Spence, PLL's Chairman, President and CEO. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. We're very pleased that you could join us. With me on the call today are Vince Sorgi, PPL's Chief Financial Officer as well as the Presidents of our U.S. and UK utility businesses. Moving to slide three, our agenda this morning starts with an overview of our 2015 earnings results an operational overview, and a discussion of our 2016 earnings forecast, and our priorities for this year. After my remarks, Vince will review our segment financials and provide a more detailed financial overview. Before I go any further, however, let me simply say that 2015 was a remarkable year for PPL. We successfully spun off our competitive generation business. In doing so, we better…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. And our first question will come from Dan Eggers of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hey. Good morning, guys. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Dan. Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Bill, can you just maybe share some thoughts, you guys laid out a lot of the CapEx details, but, obviously, the Clean Power Plans, one of these yet to be determined, but potentially a big deal particularly for Kentucky. Given the fact the states now position, Pennsylvania is kind of just in a passive functionality, how do you guys see your two states playing through as far as coming up with plans? And when do you think you're going to get a better handle on, how you guys are going to try and work to comply? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Let me give some general comments and then I'll ask Vic Staffieri to talk specifically about Kentucky. But I think in both states cases, while they may be opposed and legally challenging the Clean Power Plan, I think, pragmatically speaking, they both recognize that probably beginning to work on a state implementation plan would be a prudent thing to do compared to just waiting, perhaps, a Federal implementation plan to be visit upon them. So, I think, generally speaking, both states, I believe, will constructively work with their utilities to come up with an alternative should their efforts to overturn the roll fail. So with that little bit of background, Vic, do you want to talk specifically about Kentucky? Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: Yes. Just recently our Governor has…

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Management

Good morning, Vince and Bill. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Management

Just a quick clarification. The slightly lower growth in the U.S.; that's a function of the bonus depreciation extension or the pushing out of the CPG-2? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Primarily bonus.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Management

Okay, got it. And then, just lastly, just focusing on Compass, obviously a little bit of an undertaking here and you've announced the first segment. Were you at all or if you go into JV parts of this line, especially the New York portion, are you looking for partners? And then, how should we sort of think about the other segments being announced and whether the CODs of the other segments could be earlier than 2023? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Let me ask Greg Dudkin, President of our PPL Electric Utilities to take that question. Gregory N. Dudkin - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director, PPL Electric Utilities Corp.: Yeah. So with regard to potential JVs, we're prepared to go this alone. But if there is a JV that makes sense, we'll certainly look at that. As far as the other segments of the line are concerned, right now, we are focused on this segment and we'll continue to evaluate the other segments to make sure that we have the right cost, the right plans, the right modeling; and then as we get to a point where we believe that we have an exceptional project, we'll then release that similar to the way we did on the first segment.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Management

Got it. That's helpful. And then just to confirm, this is completely additive to your growth trajectory. Gregory N. Dudkin - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director, PPL Electric Utilities Corp.: That is correct.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Management

Excellent. Thanks so much. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Please go ahead.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

So perhaps just following a little bit up on the last questions here. As you've been thinking about spending opportunities, obviously you're shifting things down a little bit. But in light of the bonus depreciation, is there any ability to accelerate some of the other spend that you would have otherwise had out in the future, just to kind of take advantage of those tax benefits and perhaps argue to some of the constituency of the business there is a real tangible benefit to doing so? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It certainly is possible. and just having seen this change here at the end of the last year, we'll look to that opportunity for additional spending once we begin the planning process again for this year taking us out through 2019. But, for now, we believe, we've got a really solid plan with all completely identifiable projects through 2018 that we are highly confident we can execute on, and we'll continue to look to see if there is additional projects we can bring into that window or the window just beyond 2018.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Got it. And then just to get a little bit more clarity on the change in the projected T&D expenses, you called it reliability spend, in Pennsylvania; how much of that reduction is tied to the negative sales normalized trend that we saw last year. Is it really just about a narrow view of the liability and how effective it is? Or how much does it tie into the sales forecast itself? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Relative to sales forecast, typically, and I think what you're probably referring to is new customer load predominantly. So that's pretty small – very small in the context of the large capital plan that we have. So it would not be a major factor in moving the CapEx around one way or the other.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Got it. All right. Thank you guys. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Hey, gents. Good morning. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Sorry, I don't want to be a nitpicker, but I wanted to follow-up on a couple of questions that were already asked. So if I look at your slide 21 and I just take the sensitivities that – sorry, slide 27, I was looking at your last deck, and just take the sensitivities to heart today, especially in 2018 on the pound, it would basically imply an $0.11 negative delta which would put – still put you at a little over a 4% earnings growth rate from 2003 to 2018, which given the hits other companies have taken from bonus depreciation, which still put you guys in the winning column. So how are we getting from the low 4%s to 5% under that scenario, because you guys seem pretty confident, you have the levers? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So part of it, as I mentioned, were the operating and maintenance expense timing, so we could move things around. I think also, as we've seen in the past, when we have years where we've got strong earnings either driven by weather or other events, we've taken that ability to go ahead and do re-strikes on the hedges or set in new hedges. So I think we have built into the plan. I know we have built into the plan some re-strikes, some funds, if you will, for basically moving hedges around in time periods to meet our plan. So I think the combination of those two would probably be the two levers that would most likely get pulled to keep us at that minimum 5% EPS growth rate that we're confident we can hit.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Thank you. And then my second question is, also if I just take to heart the 5% to 6% earnings growth range of $2.03, you've rolled out a 2018 earnings aspiration of $2.52. But you sort of left a gap in the 2017 timeframe. In the last presentation you gave – at my conference in early January, there was a sort of notional target of $2.42; I know that wasn't guidance. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

But it looks like if you just look at the midpoint of 5% to 6%, that number would be more like $2.38 now. Am I over-thinking it? Or is there just a modest drag from bonus depreciation in 2017 that we need to think about? Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: No. I would say that 2017 guidance hasn't really changed from what we have talked about prior.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Management

Okay. Thanks. I just wanted to make sure. Have a great day. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You too. Thanks, Greg.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Hey, Bill. Good morning, guys. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

I just wanted to follow-up quickly on the dry powder headroom that you referred to in talking about the FX exposure. Is that all within the UK segment? Or are you talking about more broadly across the business? Could you clarify there? Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: This is Vince. So some of that – so we have about $0.05 or $0.06 kind of built into the plan to do re-strikes, and further hedge up 2018. Some of that's embedded in the UK guidance, I think some of it's probably sitting up at Corporate And Other as well, but in total it's about $0.05 or $0.06.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

And that's the – and beyond that you'd be talking about cost management holistically across the company. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: That's correct.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay, great. Thank you guys. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Brian Chin of Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Hi, good morning. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

On the hedge re-strike comment, I just want to make sure I understand conceptually, so that would be, for example, like monetizing hedges that are in the money today and using that to put on hedges in place in 2018 to some degree? Is that conceptually what you're thinking about? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Exactly right, Brian.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay, great. And then, just going back to the Kentucky nat gas plant deferral, just to be clear, was it the state's position on CPP that was the driving factor behind the plant deferral, or was there some other factors that helped drove that? And the reason why I'm asking it is, I'm wondering is there a risk of any other large asset deferrals in Kentucky or elsewhere? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Let me ask Vic Staffieri to comment on that. Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: No, Brian, it was purely a matter – we had some large municipals that are coming off the system later in the period, five years from now; and so that's why we made the change. We went through that application last year; had nothing to do with this Clean Power Plan. We do not have any other generation in this plant either. So, no, it had nothing to do with Clean Power Plan and there are no other anticipated deferrals of the capital spending.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

So let me make sure I get that right. So you have large municipalities, you said, that were coming off the system, as in they are self-powered on their own and so the plant isn't needed, is that right? Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: That's correct. They gave us notice – they have five-year termination period. They gave us notice of termination of about 300 megawatts, they gave it to us last year. We've noted it before. And as a result, we had into the Commission looking for approval to build the plant; we withdrew that approval and the municipal notified us that they were coming off of our system and were contemplating going elsewhere. And to the extent we have lost that revenue, we'll make it up in the rate case timing that we have. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think that's April of 2019? Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: Yes. That's April of 2019. So – but that's the only reason for the deferral of the power plant.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Understood. And then, lastly, what's the sales growth assumptions that are embedded in the 2016 guidance? Can you break that down? Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. Give us... William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: In the 2016 guidance?

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yes. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: For Kentucky it's – we're using an average over the period of less than – about 0.5% over the period. I think for Pennsylvania... Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: They're just flat. Yeah. Pennsylvania is flat year-over-year basically.

Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay. Actually, I see that here at the slide deck, my apologies. Thanks. That's all I got. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, guys. Congrats on a great transformational year. One or two simple questions. First of all, can you talk about what's assumed in guidance for earned ROEs in both Pennsylvania and Kentucky? And second, on both sides, can you just talk about what kind of headwinds and/or tailwinds to earning authorized are on both places? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Vic, why don't you take the Kentucky ROEs and then we'll pass it over to Greg. Victor A. Staffieri - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Kentucky Utilities Co.: In Kentucky for the period, Michael, we are somewhere within 50 basis points of the allowed 10% ROE. Headwinds for us, not a whole lot, because we're going to be in rate case cycle. Most of our returns are coming either from rate cases or ECRs. We're using future rate years, which would take into account of any economic issues, which is the only thing that I could see; other than that, it's a pretty solid plan for us. Gregory N. Dudkin - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director, PPL Electric Utilities Corp.: And Pennsylvania, it's Greg Dudkin, our expected GAAP combined ROE is 9.7% and we don't really see any headwinds, particularly in 2016, because in the distribution case we had a fully projected future test year. So we're very confident we'll be able to achieve that. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Plus we are in the same place for 2016 – Kentucky, we're in the same place for 2016, we just finished up our rate case also using a future rate year. And as we noted earlier,…

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Anthony Crowdell of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Management

Hey. Good morning, guys. Just a quick question on PPL capital funding. You have a maturity, I guess, in 2018. Do you plan, I guess, with maybe more cash from bonus, maybe CapEx tailing down a little, do you plan to retire the debt at capital funding or keep using that as a vehicle for access to capital? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I would say at this point, Anthony, we would likely refi that as opposed to just paying it down.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Management

And how much debt is that capital funding? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: In total?

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Management

Yes, please. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We'll get that number for you.

Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. I'll follow up with Joe after the call. Thanks for taking my question. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And the final question will come from Andy Levi of Avon Capital Advisors. Please go ahead. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: Thought you guys are going to forget me. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We got you Andy and we never forget you. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: Good morning. How are you doing? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: Actually, I thought it was a really good run-down, so just FYI on that and very good handout too. Just a couple of questions. On the high-end for 2016, how do you achieve the high-end, what are the drivers relative to midpoint? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Vince, you want to take that one? Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. So on 2016, I would say weather, load growth, O&M management – currency is pretty much locked in, so that's really not driving much of the exposure there. I think those are the main drivers. William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I would agree. I think those are the key ones. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: So it's really costs and sales basically, that's. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. Basically, yeah. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: Okay, okay. And then just on – just on. Vincent Sorgi - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: (53:02) the opposite. Correct? William H. Spence - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Andrew Levi - Avon Capital/Millennium: Okay. Got it. And then just on the hedging in the UK, so just to make sure, because you got like a bunch of questions on it, I don't…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.