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Permian Resources Corporation (PR)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 12, 2017

$21.39

+2.27%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Centennial Resource Development's Conference Call to discuss its Third Quarter 2017 Earnings. Today's call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be accessible until November 21, 2017, by dialing 855-859-2056 and entering the conference ID number of 96043152 or by visiting Centennial's website at www.cdevinc.com. At this time, I will turn the call over to Hays Mabry, Centennial's Director of Investor Relations for some opening remarks. Please go ahead.

Hays Mabry

Management

Thanks, Ali, and thank you all for joining us on the Company's third quarter 2017 earnings call. Presenting on the call today are Mark Papa, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; George Glyphis, our Chief Financial Officer; and Sean Smith, our Chief Operating Officer. Yesterday November 6, we filed a Form 8-K with an earnings release reporting third quarter 2017 earnings results for the company and third quarter 2017 operational results for our subsidiary, Centennial Resource Production LLC. We also posted an earnings presentation to our website that we will reference during today's call. You can find the presentation on our website homepage or under Presentations at www.cdevinc.com. I would like to note that many of the comments during this earnings call are forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties that could affect our actual results and plans. Many of these risks are beyond our control and are discussed in more detail in the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statement sections of our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 filed with the SEC on March 23, 2017. Although we believe the expectations expressed are based on reasonable assumptions, they are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially. We may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures that help facilitate comparisons across periods and with our peers. For any non-GAAP measures we use, a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release available on our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark Papa, Chairman and CEO.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Thanks, Hays. Good morning and welcome to Centennial's third quarter 2017 earnings call. Our presentation sequence on this call will be as follows; George will first discuss our third quarter financial results, liquidity and revised 2017 guidance, Sean will then provide an operational update from the quarter, and then, I will follow with my views regarding the oil macro, our strategy as a function of the macro and closing comments. Now, I will ask George to review our third quarter financial results.

George Glyphis

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Mark. As you can reference on Page 9 of the earnings presentation, average oil production for the third quarter was approximately 21,100 barrels per day, a 21% increase compared to the second quarter. Average oil equivalent production for the quarter totaled approximately 34,700 barrels per day, a 17% increase, compared to the previous quarter. Oil production volumes for the quarter increased approximately 61% of total equivalent volumes, compared to 59% in Q2, as our third quarter completions were more heavily weighted towards lower GOR acreage, and we had a full quarter contribution from Lea County production that has a higher oil component. Production results were in line with our expectations and resulted from approximately 13 completions during the quarter. We continued to run six rigs and shifted one rig from Reeves County to our Lea County acreage in early September. Revenues for the third quarter were approximately $112 million, compared to $91 million in the second quarter. This 23% increase was driven primarily by higher sales volumes. Our average realized oil price, excluding the impact of commodity derivative transactions was $44.95 per barrel, compared to $44.57 in the previous quarter. Lease operating expenses including workover costs totaled $11.4 million for the third quarter or $3.06 per BOE. This was a 16% increase on a per unit basis compared to Q2 primarily because of higher workover expense and water handling costs. Despite the quarter-over-quarter unit cost increase we are maintaining current full year LOE guidance. Gathering, processing and transportation expenses totaled $9.9 million for the quarter or $3.11 per BOE, which compares to $2.74 for Q2. The increase resulted primarily from firm transportation payments that were initiated during the summer. We view these FT payments as a prudent measure to ensure that our gas gets to markets, so that…

Sean Smith

Chief Operating Officer

Thank you. The third quarter represented another quarter of continued execution for Centennial. We brought forward another round of solid well results in multiple intervals across both the Northern and Southern Delaware Basin. During the quarter, Centennial operated six rigs which spud 22 wells and completed 13 wells. At the end of the third quarter, we had separate multi-well pads that were being stimulated. The three well pad and four well pad came online in early October and thus we expect to complete ten wells in October and a total of approximately 25 wells in the fourth quarter, which is in line with our full year guidance. Extended laterals are an important driver for Centennials future. Our average lateral length for wells completed during the quarter was approximately 5800 feet and represents a 20% increase from the previous quarter. As an example, we drilled the Brooks two well pad with an effective lateral length average of 9100 feet. These wells were spaced on 440 foot spacing in the upper and lower A with an IP-30 of 1375 barrels oil per day and 1350 barrels of oil per day respectively. This again shows the viability of two targets in the Wolfcamp A, as well as 440 foot spacing. We will continue to pursue extend laterals and multi-well pad development as both generate significant value. Turning to our well results, we brought online a number of admirable wells during the quarter including our best well drill to-date. The Matador 3H well was drilled with an effective lateral length of 4300 feet and achieved an IP-30 of 2150 BOE per day, consisting of 74% oil. On a per thousand foot basis, this equates to 375 barrels of oil per day. Additionally, this well produced over 100,000 barrels of oil during its first 90…

Mark Papa

Chairman

Thanks, Sean. Now, I will provide some thoughts regarding the oil macro picture and relate them to the Centennial’s strategy. Many of the macro comments are simply a repeat of the comments I made on the earnings calls three months ago. Events have moved even faster than I predicted and reinforce my conclusions. Oil markets have recently responded to the combination of high global demand, rapidly reducing crude and product inventories and tepid U.S. production growth. The last of these items is a most controversial and I would elaborate a bit on the logic regarding the tepid U.S. growth. Based on monthly EIA numbers, U.S. oil production has been essentially flat for the past seven months and I expect 2017 year-over-year production growth to be 330,000 barrels per day, much less than early year consensus estimates of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day, even though the oil rig count is currently 900, an increase of 500 rigs compared to May 19, 2016. Many people will describe the reason for this tepid growth to be cash flow or service company limitations, but I think it’s lack of remaining Tier-1 geologic quality drilling locations in two of the three major oil shale plays, the Eagle Ford and Bakken. Even in a constructive oil price environment, I expect that 2018, total U.S. oil growth will be considerably less than the 1.2 million to 1.4 million barrels per day that many people are predicting. Centennial’s strategic response to this tightening global oil supply demand picture is as follows: first, we are remaining unhedged regarding oil, we may hedge some gas and may add to our gas FT commitments to ensure that our products move out of the Permian Basin, but we like the supply and demand picture on oil and with our low debt see no reason to hedge oil. Second, we will continue on a path towards 60,000 barrels of oil a day in 2020, which is a highest four year oil growth CAGR of any E&P. And third, we will look for tactical means to cautiously term up service company agreements. In closing, there are four things we like you take away from this call. First, we began to increase our 2017 production target, albeit slightly this time without increasing CapEx. Second, we began to reduce our full year 2017 DD&A estimate. This represents the financial effect of the top quality technical team we now have in place as exhibited by the good wells we noted in our press release and on this call. Third, we are exhibiting a very high multi-year oil growth rate, while maintaining negligible debt with an expected year-end debt to cap below 10%. And fourth, we expect to begin to generate reasonable GAAP ROEs and ROCEs beginning at oil prices just about where WTI is today. Thanks for listening and now we’ll go to Q&A. Ali, if you want to queue up the - that’s appreciated

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is going to come from the line of Irene Haas with Imperial Capital.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Morning, Irene.

Operator

Operator

Irene, your line is open.

Irene Haas

Analyst

Yes, and my question is, the in-basin sand, have you tried out sort of the crushing strength. Are you worried about it being too deep in Delaware Basin?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Yes, Irene. Let me introduce, Dan Robinson, our completion manager. He is also on this call and let you get that answer from the horse’s mouth. Dan, would you field that question please?

Dan Robinson

Analyst

Sure, hi, Irene. We’ve done our due diligence there and third-party testing, as well as evaluating the Wolfcamp with defits and we feel that closer strengths and crushers at thin and strengths of the proppant there is sufficient for used in the Wolfcamp.

Irene Haas

Analyst

How far into the Wolfcamp, you are trying and then A, how does it look for B & C?

Dan Robinson

Analyst

We believe it’s fine for the B & C intervals as well.

Irene Haas

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Corales with Howard Weil.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil

Hey, good morning guys. Mark, your original plan, the kind of five year plan, I think you are adding one or two rigs per year. Is that still kind of hold true? Or is efficiencies maybe reduced that?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Good morning, Brian. Yes, if you go back a year ago, we had a - I guess, a fairly aggressive ramp up in a number of drilling rigs, by the time we got to 2019 and 2020, and it is fair to say that the drilling rig efficiencies have allowed us to project that we are going to get to 60,000 barrels a day, with less rigs than we would have projected a year ago. So, clearly, we are drilling the wells faster than we would have projected a year ago and so we are going to get to 60,000 barrels a day with less rigs. We are not yet prepared to give you a forecast for where are going to be in 2018 on number of rigs, but it is – I’d say, reasonably certain that we will be adding rigs over the number six in 2018. And again, it’s a general guide, if you take our production forecast for this year, and just scale it out between where we are going to be at this year and 60,000 barrels a day in 2020, it’s pretty much a straight-line forecast for the production growth. You are not going to be just wildly off, if you just took a straight edge and just took a straight-line forecast for where we are going to be in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That would give you a pretty good estimate.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil

Thank you. And one more, just with oil prices moving higher, a great move on the in-basin sand, it sounds like it’s going to be a good cost saver. What other areas are you – I guess, concerned with inflation or service tightness?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Well, my macro view, first, a couple comments on the oil pricing. I think that, if I am right on the oil macro, what we will see next year is, less growth in U.S., total U.S. oil production than most people are expecting. And that will be a – it would cause a further upward response in WTI prices. And, then you will see, obviously more activity in the U.S. and more demand for service companies. And I think we are going to see kind of across the board uptick in pressure – pricing pressure. And probably the last place we are going to see it in terms of availability is rigs. So I think that the efficiency of rigs is still going to put us in a – we are not going to see a huge tightness on rigs in terms of accessibility of rigs. So, I think the pressure I guess on the E&Ps is going to be on completion related activities, pretty much everything related to completion activities is where we are going to see tightness. And so, we are going to be focusing, primarily on those activities, although we may look at terming up some drilling rig contracts. Right now, we got really – essentially a whole lot of short-term drilling rig contracts of six months to nine months is probably our average term on our rig contracts. So we may look at terming those up, but I think, frac crews, flow back crews, everything related to well completions is what I expect to see a lot more tightness as we get into and through 2018.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is going to come from the line of Jeanine Wai.

Jeanine Wai

Analyst

If we have some fun with excel, again as crude prices are kind of in that $60 to $65 range in 2019, and 2020, I think you’ve talked about in the past, there is some significant free cash flow if we just want Centennial’s activity to hit anything close to that 60,000 barrel a day target in 2020. Can you talk about the sensitivity of and the optionality around that 60,000 a day targets and by 2020, you’ll have more than paid down your debt and you’ve told us in the past not to consider you a serial acquirer?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Yes, Jeanine, yes, at this juncture, we would not intend to be a serial acquirer. So, it’s not – even in a – let’s say a constructive oil price environment, don’t look for us to be going out and adding massive amounts of acreage or doing M&As or issuing equity to do M&As. I kind of like our position where we are today is kind of a self-contained company. So, from this point forward, the likely path for us is more internally generated growth from our own acreage. So, that’s the likely path and I would not – I am not going to 100% rule out M&A, but, I would say, that is a less likely path. In terms of our – we will likely continue to outspend our cash flow, for the next several years, as we march towards 60,000 barrels a day and I know that scares some people. But, remember, we’ve designed this company rolling out of private equity with – we came out with negative net debt and we will exit this year with less than 10% net debt to cap. So, we are a relatively lightly levered company and as we move forward, we would expect that we will never be in a situation where net debt-to-cap ratio exceeds the low 20% range. So, we are always going to run the company at a very little net debt-to-cap ratio as we go forward. And probably, depending on the oil price, we will probably get to a net neutrality on cash flow CapEx in the range of 2019 as we would see it. So hopefully, that gives you some color, Jeanine.

Jeanine Wai

Analyst

Oh, yes. That’s really helpful. Thank you. So, I guess, beyond that in 2020 and 2021, when we see significant free cash flow, should we be thinking about a dividend?

Mark Papa

Chairman

I mean, if you project past that point, I mean, you could look at – we would establish likely a dividend and start considering things like buybacks. So, again, that’s – you are getting a little bit to a speculative position because you are trying to forecast out three or four years, but that’s the direction we would look at moving at that point in time and then, one of our goals. And this is, as oil prices have moved up recently, this is becoming more of a shorter-term goal is to start showing some GAAP ROEs and ROCEs that would not be embarrassing numbers. And the break over point for us is about a $60 WTI, when we get to $60 WTI, our GAAP ROEs and ROCEs, based on our projections are beginning to look respectable. And so, we want to be a company that we don’t talk non-GAAP. So we’ll be dealing GAAP numbers. And so, those numbers are very important to us prospectively.

Jeanine Wai

Analyst

Okay, thank you for taking my questions.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Jeffery Campbell with Tuohy Brothers.

Jeffery Campbell

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers

Good morning and congratulations on the quarter. Mark, your first Lea County well is in the second Bone Spring Sand. I am just wondering, is this going to continue to be the primary zone, now that Lea is attracting a rig or do you have some others in mind?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Sean, do you want to field that, please?

Sean Smith

Chief Operating Officer

You bet. Jeff, on the first well we drill in the second Bone Spring Sand target interval that is definitely a primary producer across our entire acreage position. Although, I think we have announced before that, we’ve got first bone production on our acreage as well as several other zones in and around our acreage. So, I think it will be a mix of First, Second, Avalon and possibly some Third and even Wolfcamp into the first part of next year. So, multiple zones in New Mexico.

Jeffery Campbell

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers

Okay, good. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I thought, I heard you mentioned higher water cost in your earlier remarks, I was just wondering is that another thing that you can sort of try to attack and improve upon similar to the way that you’ve improved your local sourcing of proppant?

Sean Smith

Chief Operating Officer

Mark, I’ll take that one, as well. So, water is certainly something we deal with on a daily basis and it is a major component of LOE and we are certainly focused on that. In New Mexico, we have yet to build out fully our infrastructure and I think, as we do that, that will help bring down our water handling costs.

Jeffery Campbell

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers

Okay, all right. If I could ask one more, wanted to return to Mark’s macro commentary and I want to preface it by saying in no way trying to be argumented for – but there had been several large Bakken operators that have announced improved wells results in the quarter. That is to say, they have upwardly revised their EURs. So, how do you think we should view those improved results in the contexts of the Bakken running low on Tier-1 locations. If you were to think, maybe the sort of the end result of high grading or how should we look at it?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Yes, I think, in both the Bakken and Eagle Ford, you are going to continue to hear of individual successes and individual well results by individual companies. And, in no way, shape or form am I saying that you won’t still have individual successes in the Bakken and Eagle Ford. But I think if you look from the 30,000 foot level, at the Bakken and Eagle Ford overall, I would say that they are no longer the growth engines that they were four, five years ago. And that, the majority of the Tier-1 quality locations have been drilled and they are just not that many to go and if you suddenly got to an oil price environment that, let’s just say, turns out to be $70 WTI, and you pump a lot of capital into the Bakken and the Eagle Ford, the resulting production growth that you are going to see from current levels in those assets, I predict is going to be disappointingly low. But, clearly, you’ll have individual wells, from time-to-time that will be successful. So, yes, to look at it from a macro view and not from an individual well view.

Jeffery Campbell

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers

Well, I think that’s fair. I thought that’s worth asking. So, I appreciate the answer.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Thanks, Jeff.

Jeffery Campbell

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Stifel.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel

Mark, we’ve heard from industry that cycle terms are deteriorating due to overall service quality and less experienced crews. Given the strength of your operations, could you comment on what you guys are doing to counter some of these forces?

Mark Papa

Chairman

Yes, Sean or Dan, you guys are closer to the tranches. Why don’t field those questions?

Sean Smith

Chief Operating Officer

Sure, I think that is certainly something we are focused on and keeping your crews happy out there getting experienced folks, getting them to the job site safely and treating them properly keeps them motivated and I think we’ve done a good job of engaging and retaining top-tier talent in the field and I think that we haven’t seen any real loss either on our rigs or on our dedicated frac crews. So, happy with the crews and their performance and continue to see good things come from them.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Derrick, let me just add one thing to that. One of the items that may come is as companies find that volumes are disappointing is that, you can expect, I believe to hear in more future calls that the culprit is laid upon the service companies. And you’ll hear us from that service company quality deteriorates unavailability of service company crews, you’ll hear stories about the midstream bottlenecks and my advice to you is, if you filter through that, well, yes, there is certainly an element that’s through in all that, but I think it maybe masking the underlying culprit and the underlying culprit is likely lack of Tier-1 geologic quality drilling locations and fundamental, lesser quality drilling results. And so, it’s going to be up to you people to fair it out, is it really the service industry that’s causing the bottlenecks for disappointing production or is it that the reservoirs themselves are not yielding the aggregate production that people had expected. And is that why the overall monthly EIA numbers are showing less than expected results. And again, one more comment, going back to the macro, I am in no way saying that I expect future production growth in the U.S. to be flat lining. I expect to see production growth in the U.S. continue to increase, but I just expect that increase to be more tepid than many people are predicting. So, it’s just something that I would suggest, you just keep an eye on over the next six to 12 months and monitor for yourself as the monthly EIA numbers come out and I would suggest you don’t pay much attention to the weekly EIA monthly production numbers, because they are not that accurate. Thank you.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel

Thanks, Mark. That’s definitely a fair point. For my follow-up, perhaps Sean, regarding your comments on the sequential increase in average lateral links, how do you see that projecting over the next couple of years, as you look out to your development?

Sean Smith

Chief Operating Officer

It’s good question. Certainly, it’s something we are pushing on and I’ll give a tip of the hat to our land crew, because they are working feverishly to trade us out of small non-op positions and trade us into larger not operated positions, such that we can, A, increase our working interest and B, drill more long laterals and so that’s something that we are certainly concentrating on. We have – we are showing in our current plan the way our acreage sits today that we will increase next year again in our lateral length. So, certainly north of 6000 feet is our target in 2018 and depending on how our land group can do, putting together acreage positions, we hope to continue to grow that in the coming years.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel

Thanks for taking my questions.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Yes, thanks, Derrick.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And currently we have no further questions in the queue. I’ll turn the conference over to Mark Papa for closing comments.

Mark Papa

Chairman

Okay. I’d like to thank everyone for paying attention to the call and we’ll talk to you again in three more months. Thank you. Operator Once again, we’d like to thank you for participating on today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.