Patrick Lockwood-Taylor
Analyst · Jefferies.
Yes. Keith, on OTC consumption, we're back reviewing this data yesterday. In quarter 1, we saw consumption growth actually ahead of expectation between 3 and 3.5 points. quarter 2, I remember this, we get this data like you retrospectively. Quarter 2, we started to see a slowdown then moving into slight decline with actually June appearing to be flat to a year ago and sort of past 3 average. That then continued and actually accelerated really from August onwards and October consumption was weak as well, okay. So this has been dynamic and highly unpredictable and obviously softer than we and many others had anticipated. On Infant Formula, and I just talked to this with Susan, the velocities that we've seen have been below expectations. That's obviously affected revenue and that's affected our share build, but we believe is addressable. To your question on drivers, there is a multitude of tactical drivers, be it future levels, display levels, some changes in distribution, some changes in pricing effect. We've seen over the last 2 to 3 years, very strong price inflation in this category, which was building category value. That seemed to come to an end in quarter 1. You have seen though trade across into store brand. You're aware that store brand OTC is growing share, and we're growing our share within that as well. This doesn't appear to be structural. There is no real change in incidence levels across these treatment categories, changes in consumption habits across different generations. There is some effect of that, but I don't think that, that is material and certainly not some. I think there is some speculation that people -- consumers are burning through pantry stock to a greater extent than they historically have done. I haven't seen data personally confirming that, but I have heard that hypothesis. And the cough/cold season is definitely down on a year ago through now, but we are still out looking an average season for cough/cold. So again, a multitude of tactical factors, no evidence that we've seen that this is a structural change, and we would expect, therefore, normalization of the market, as I think you've heard some of our competitors say.