Earnings Labs

Primerica, Inc. (PRI)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 8, 2018

$279.27

-0.54%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Kelly and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Primerica Fourth Quarter Earnings Result Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Kathryn Kieser, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Kathryn E. Kieser

Analyst

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Primerica's fourth quarter earnings call. A copy of our earnings release, financial supplement, presentation, and Webcast of today's call are all available on our Web-site at investors.primerica.com. Glenn Williams, our Chief Executive Officer, and Alison Rand, our Chief Financial Officer, will deliver prepared remarks. Then we'll open it up for questions. We reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release and on this call. These non-GAAP measures have limitations, and reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are attached to our press release. Our fourth quarter GAAP results reflect a net benefit of $95.5 million to recognize the transition effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 during the quarter. Given the one time and unusual nature of this benefit, we removed this impact from our non-GAAP operating results. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements in accordance with the Safe Harbor provision of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. The Company will not revise or update these statements to reflect new information, subsequent events or changes in the strategy. Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied are discussed in the Company's 2016 annual report on Form 10-K, as updated by our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Now, I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

Glenn J. Williams

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Thank you, Kathryn. Good morning, everyone. During the call today I will begin with a recap of our 2017 accomplishments, then move to fourth quarter results, and wrap up with an overview of our strategic plans for the future. In 2017, we showcased our ability to drive growth across the business, while at the same time adapting to changes and implementing enhancements to deliver production growth and positive financial results. These results were accomplished as we successfully navigated through regulatory uncertainty, like the DOL fiduciary rule and the full implementation of the new licensing regime in Canada. Ongoing technology improvements continue to play a significant role in the performance of our core model. During the year we revitalized the new representative online experience, starting from their first exposure to Primerica through the licensing and training process and beyond. New capabilities now allow us to deliver real-time customized communications to individual representatives based on their unique stage in the business. We also continued developing mobile sales tools that appeal to a broad spectrum of our representatives and provided platform for effective interaction with prospective clients and our sales force. And we transitioned our electronic applications to a system that allows representatives to use their personal technology regardless of the device or platform. Midyear, we launched a new mobile life insurance app allowing policy changes to be submitted electronically, which has reduced the paper forms we receive each month by the thousands. These initiatives, along with sales force growth, led to our life insurance issued face amount surpassing $95 billion in 2017, ranking us among the top term life insurance issuers in North America. In the Investment and Savings Products business, we launched our Lifetime Investment Platform in order to better serve our clients who have significant assets. This new state-of-the-art advisory…

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Thank you, Glenn, and good morning everyone. Today I will share with you the key drivers behind our fourth quarter financial results and insight into 2018 expectations, followed by an overview of how tax reform impacts Primerica. Starting on Slide 9, in the fourth quarter our Term Life segment's adjusted operating revenues increased 16%, driven by 60% growth in adjusted direct premiums year-over-year. Results reflect continued strength in Term Life production as well as growth in both new business and end-of-term business, not subject to IPO-related coinsurance agreements. Adjusted operating income before income taxes grew 33% and the pre-tax operating margin expanded to 19 .8% from 17.3% in the prior year period. Incurred claims in the fourth quarter were consistent with historical trends in both the current and prior year periods. As we typically do in the fourth quarter, we locked in assumptions such as persistency and mortality for the current issue year. The finalization of assumptions this period did not meaningfully impact the benefits and claims ratio, which was 57.6% for the quarter, whereas in the prior year period the assumption locking process resulted in a higher ratio of 58%. On a full-year basis, the 2017 benefits and claims ratio was 58.5%, which is consistent with both the prior year and our expectations for 2018. Persistency continued to stabilize in the second half of the year. The fourth quarter DAC amortization ratio was 16.9%, whereas in the prior year period the ratio was about 100 basis points higher, largely due to weaker early-duration persistency in that period. On a full-year basis, the 2017 ratio was 15.9%, up slightly from 15.6% in 2016. As we look to 2018, we expect the DAC amortization ratio, which you will notice from our financial supplement, includes non-deferred insurance commissions to be at or…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dan Bergman from Citi. Your line is open.

Daniel Bergman

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

So for the incremental expenses you talked about, both the technology improvements and the community businesses, I apologize if I missed it, but how should we think about how each of those, should we think of them as kind of ongoing annual expenses or more isolated 2018, any color on how those might look over the next couple of years, it will be much appreciated.

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Glenn, I'll go ahead and take that one. It's interesting, I think the technology specifically I believe, as everyone knows, technology never stays the same. So, while we do have some I'll call one-time costs to do some fundamental changes to our infrastructure, I would expect that we will continue to invest somewhere around this level of our annual earnings towards improving our technology, so long as we continue to see obviously benefits associated with those efforts. With regard to the pieces associated with tax reform, most of those items are really going to be pretty permanent in nature because we are really trying to get at benefits to our employees which really would not be one-time type of events. So, I would expect both of those to be fundamentally part of our expense base going forward.

Daniel Bergman

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Great, thanks. And then I guess you had a really strong run with Investment and Savings Products sales over the past year or so, and given that that metric has historically had some level of correlation with market performance, I just wanted to see if you had any thoughts on what impact the recent market volatility might have on ISP sales and should we expect growth to continue or maybe a shift from mutual funds to annuity? Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Glenn J. Williams

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Obviously, for every market I believe that kind of volatility creates a lot of questions and confusion. We tend to be a little insulated from that on main street, but with today's communications ability, it gets to main-street pretty quickly. I think the answer to your question is really how long the disruption goes. If it's something that's a blip and it smoothes out fairly quickly, I don't think it impacts the long-term trajectory of our business very much. If the volatility continues over a period of weeks or months, then clearly that's going to create some nervousness and people tend to stand on the sidelines when nervous. So, it's a little too early to tell exactly how to answer that question, but I think you would be right in assuming that if it stayed volatile for a longer period of time, we'd start to see a headwind as a result of it. If it's kind of the shift rights itself fairly quickly, it would be much less disruption.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Alison, the benefit of the change in the IPO coinsurance treatment and the term issue, I think you said it was a 2 point tailwind for the year, presumably stronger for the fourth quarter. Should that relative impact, I think it will be sustained, but should the impact be greater should that 2 become 4 or should that impact stabilize or even diminish a bit over time?

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

So, first of all I'm disappointed that you didn't start singing Rocky Top, but okay. Anyway, you are correct and I think we've indicated that this benefit is going to be there for quite some time. I think the number might be closer to about 3% for 2018 of a benefit. Probably starts to tail off a little bit after that. And the reason it doesn't continue to grow is, you got to remember, this is a really lumpy block of business. So it really has to do with what we sold 10 or 20, whatever years ago to see what's coming through the pipeline. But one thing to caution, and that's why we went ahead and gave you sort of our overall estimate for adjusted direct premium growth, the number of 15% to 16% growth does incorporate that benefit. You have to remember, one of the things that would be otherwise taking the growth rate down is sort of this mix, if you will, between our old legacy business and the new business that we've been putting on since the IPO, and that's sort of an effect that we've been seeing since we've been public. Over the last few years you haven't seen a negative trend because we've had really strong new business production, and that combined with now this end-of-term component is what is continuing to maintain sort of that overall growth level in adjusted direct premiums.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Thank you for that. The managed account sales, it looks like your asset-based revenue as a percentage of assets has moved up. I assume that the managed account sales contribute to that, if I understand it properly. Can you give us a sense of is that going to be a material change in the model if your managed account sales continue to be strong, how quickly could that ratio of asset-based revenue to assets, how quickly could that move up?

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

And I do think it is a permanent piece of our model. If you just look at the things that we have been developing, we put a lot of time and energy towards developing that expanded platform in 2017, as we do believe it is a key component of how our population wants to do their investing, especially for the people who have accumulated more assets over time. So, I do think it's a permanent component. As a model shift, it does really take quite a bit of time for our total assets to move. So you'll look we've got $61 billion-plus in assets under management. We're not quite settling that level of managed. So, I do think it will be a pretty mild or more moderate type of movement or shift between sales-based and asset-based. Unfortunately you see the sales-based hit almost immediately because there is no sales-based component, but the asset-based piece will build up over time. Again, if our existing assets under management weren't so large, it would be more profound. But given that we are adding to a pretty large in-force base, if you will, it will be a little slower. I think the important thing though is that it's there I say for good. It has really a very long tail on it. Obviously we've got a lot of – we've got a very high retention rate on our ISP business. So, those assets should be there generating earnings for quite some time.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Then a final question, it looked like the persistency was a little bit weaker in the quarter. I think fourth quarter, it looks like historically here persistency has been a little bit lower, but then this was still down a little bit year-over-year. Am I seeing that properly, anything to read into that?

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Yu are correct that fourth quarter is generally a weaker quarter. I would not say necessarily that persistency is down. I'm not sure. It does have to really do with where the lapses are coming from. We're very focused, and from a DAC perspective what we were talking about earlier, in earlier quarters, it is early duration persistency and early duration persistency actually was very much in line, if not maybe mildly better than last year. So you might be looking at overall lapsation rate maybe from the [indiscernible]. I'm not sure where you're getting that from.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Yes, you got it right.

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

If that is where you're getting it from, you have to remember too, unfortunately end-of-term, and I think I talked about this last quarter, end-of-term does create a little bit of a phenomenon there. Theoretically when a policy reaches the end of term, those policies all are supposed to lapse. So they can lapse. What we see happening is some people, because of whatever is happening in their lifestyle, there are changes in the market, and where they are in their lives, is they go ahead and either renew or continue their policy. So, depending on the volumes that we are going to have in end-of-term business from period to period, you can see sort of some lift, if you will, in lapsation. And if you are looking specifically at the roll-forward of the in-force block, and if you really look at the underlying details, which is hard for you to see but from what we are able to see, again I say, early duration persistency was consistent or potentially modestly improved from where it was last year.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Your line is open

Yes, and it was there in the supplemental we're looking at. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sean Dargan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Sean Dargan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open

I have a question about I guess the targeted RBC ratio and the move of the state of domicile to Tennessee. It's my understanding that at the time of the IPO, you made representations for Massachusetts that you'll keep RBC up around 450%, which seems high given the product that you're selling. Putting aside the hit to RBC from the change in the tax code, just wondering if you think Tennessee is going to let you run at a lower RBC.

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Sean Dargan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open

I will tell you this that the attempt or the desire to run at a lower RBC was not a factor in our decision to move to Tennessee. Again, we've always operated based on what we have felt we really needed. Part of the reason we were keeping it so high early on is just the newness of the organization and the fact that we had quite frankly taken out quite a bit of capital when we separated from city. But Massachusetts, their credit has been very willing to work with us and has never stood in the way of anything we've wanted to do. So, it really isn't a function of trying to manage our RBC level. We had very strong open dialog with Massachusetts, and I can see from our early relationships with Tennessee, it will be the same there that they understand the business and understand what the business' needs are. So, simply focusing on a ratio I don't think will be what anybody looks to do.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Sean Dargan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Okay. And just as I think about the capacity to buy back stock and pay common dividend, is that being driven by higher free cash flow out of ISP?

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Sean Dargan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open

It's two things. One is absolutely the higher free cash flow out of ISP. One other item very specifically for us is principle-based reserving, and it does take some time for the reserves that are under that new regime to build, but the unique thing here is we have certainty around what our required capital will be or what our reserves will be. Whereas in the past under XXX, while we always felt like we were going to be able to execute financing transactions, they did require regulatory approval and therefore we could really never say with certainty what would or would not be distributable. So, what you are looking at here and what you are seeing with our effort to increase our deployment for 2018 is a combination of having that certainty now as well as the strength we have seen in ISP.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter [indiscernible] from KBW. Your line is open.

Peter

Analyst

Just a quick follow up on the increased share repurchase. So does the 200 million represent a good proxy for free cash flow generation at this point?

Alison S. Rand

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

It represents a good proxy for what we believe will be available at the holding company.

Peter

Analyst

Okay, got it. Thanks. And another quick question on agent recruiting, so growth has been really strong for the last three years now, so do prior year comparisons start getting tougher at this point and do you see this continued momentum going forward?

Glenn J. Williams

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Peter, as the number get bigger, I mean clearly the comparisons often are tougher. But at the same time, that's offset by the fact that we see just ever-increasing need for what we do in the marketplace, which we believe directly impacts the attractiveness of our opportunity. So, like most things in life, you got a combination of headwinds and tailwinds. Just continuing the incredible growth we have experienced does get harder mathematically, but at the same time we do believe we've got a powerful story and we expect to be able to continue the momentum in the same general vicinity of what you've seen recently as we head into 2018.

Peter

Analyst

Good. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

And our last question comes from the line of Adam Klauber from William Blair. Your line is open.

Adam Klauber

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Clearly mutual fund sales are doing well. Are the amount of reps being licensed, is that growing or how does the pipeline look for new reps to get a license to sell mutual funds?

Glenn J. Williams

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Yes, that group is still growing. The size of our sales force, as we reported in my prepared remarks, at about 24,300, it has not been growing as we talked about on previous calls quite at the same level as our insurance sales force, and that's just to be expected. Number one is we move our insurance sales force first because that is the pool of resources from which we get those license to mutual fund reps, and so that has to go first. And we expect the mutual fund licensing process, which is a little more difficult, to be delayed somewhat due to timing of it being the second license. But also since it is a more difficult exam and it's one that people have to have a higher level of commitment of both time and effort to get and maintain, it probably goes at a little bit slower rate. But we also look at the opportunities, both kind of the push and pull opportunities to increase that number and that rate of growth. We have a lot of work going on right now on assisting people as they get that license. There is some licensing process changes FINRA has planned in the future that we are preparing for and making sure that we find good reasons for people to take action both before and after those changes are made to try to accelerate that growth rate as well. And then, as I mentioned, we are trying to make our business easier. The [EZ-Key] [ph] technology tool that we are building for our ISP business, we believe will make that business more attractive. And so, we have a whole series of initiatives going on to continue to grow that sales force and hopefully increase the rate of growth so that it gets a little closer to the life rate of growth.

Adam Klauber

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Okay. And then you did mention some new products, health and one or two others. Will next year be more of the testing bid year that it will take really till 2019 till it ramps up?

Glenn J. Williams

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

I think you are exactly right about that. I mean, these things take – we are very deliberate as you have seen I think from our history. We are very proud of our distribution capabilities but we also recognize that continuing to grow the businesses we are succeeding in now is important and we don't want to do anything to disrupt that. So we move very deliberately. Traditionally, once we identify an opportunity and bid it, we then start with a pilot project to test it and see if we get the results to both the intended and unintended consequences that we hope for, and then roll it out methodically from there. So, I think you are dead on. I think 2018 is year of evaluation and possibly some piloting, and we'll keep you posted on that as it happens, and then we'll look to start to achieve measurable success after that.

Adam Klauber

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

That was our last question of the day. I would like to thank everyone for joining the Primerica Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Results Webcast. This does conclude the call and you may now disconnect.