Craig Blunden
Analyst · Hovde Group. Please go ahead
Sure, the biggest issue are – the biggest difference when we are comparing ourselves to last year, is that refinance activity was 48% of the volume in the fourth quarter of 2016 and it’s only 37% of volume this quarter. So that’s the largest single difference or driver with respect to origination volumes being lower this quarter in comparison to last quarter. And I think that’s probably true for the industry and certainly true for the West Coast or California. As it relates to purchase money activity, it’s very difficult to handle on that, you can [indiscernible] information out of California realtors, [indiscernible] information as it relates to that. But anecdotally what we are hearing is that, there seems to be pent up demand, but there is just not enough supply of homes to originate more purchase money activity right now. Generally, interest rates are okay, they are up from where they were, but are very low by historical standards. And if you are purchasing home, I think you are less sensitive to that interest rate and economic activity is pretty solid in California. So if you look at job growth or rate growth in California, it’s pretty sound. But we do have the markets that you describe. And so if you think about the markets that we are in, in Northern California, particularly in the Bay Area, they are very choppy markets with respect to prices. And we are starting to see a little bit of weakness in price increases year-over-year and month-to-month, which also suggest that those markets are choppy. Frankly, if we come off of 10% housing price increases year-over-year, that’s healthy. It seems to me. If it were 1% or 2%, I think that brings more buyers in and that allows for purchase money activity to occur. It’s less competitive than that with respect to pricing in Southern California generally, although many of the markets in Southern California as well are near their record highs, late 2006, early 2007, whatever you choose to be the record high time period. So they are kind of back to those levels again. And then Inland Empire, it’s as always much more affordable than anything closer to the coast. So, we see good demand in the Inland Empire, but ultimately the purchase money activity just isn’t occurring as it once was.
Tim O’Brien: So, speaking of the Inland Empire, what about new listing or inventory homes available for sale that are out there? Are those numbers – has there been a lot of new homes brought to market by the builders, is that industry kind up and running and cranking along in the Inland Empire markets and the affordable markets, do they have plenty of lots or what’s the status of that or are they constrained like, I don’t know, Bay Area markets or LA metro markets, by lack of lots?