Earnings Labs

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 29, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Second Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Craig Blunden. Please go ahead, sir.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Good morning, everyone. This is Craig Blunden, Chairman and CEO of Provident Financial Holdings, and on the call with me is Donavon Ternes, our President, Chief Operating, and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I have a brief administrative item to address. Our presentation today discusses the company’s business outlook and will include forward-looking statements. Those statements include descriptions of management’s plans, objectives or goals for future operations, products or services, forecast of financial or other performance measures and statements about the company's general outlook for economic and business conditions. We also may make forward-looking statements during the question-and-answer period following management's presentation. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information on the Risk Factors that could cause actual results to differ from any forward-looking statement is available from the earnings release that was distributed yesterday, from the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2018, and from the Form 10-Qs that are filed subsequent to the Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are effective only as of the date they're made, and the company assumes no obligation to update this information. To begin with, thank you for participating in our call. I hope that each of you has had an opportunity to review our earnings release, which describes our second quarter results. I would like to begin this morning by highlighting the results of our community banking business. Over the course of last year, our net interest margin has expanded, core deposits have been stable, credit quality remained strong, but our loan growth has been below our expectations as a result of significant prepayments and disciplined underwriting standards reducing loan origination volume. In the most recent quarter, the community banking and staff…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And we do have a question from the line of Tim O’Brien, Sandler O’Neill. Please go ahead. Tim O’Brien: So you talked about releveraging the balance sheet, is it -- you say short-term or long-term strategy, Craig? I need to catch that.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Well, it’s worth a shift. It would be nice we've short-term but it's looking like long-term at the moment.

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

In the current environment with respect to what we would argue are more conservative underwriting standards there are many competitors and as a result of that, we are finding that competitive pressures on lower loan origination volumes. We know that from the loans that have gone elsewhere during the application process. Tim O’Brien: I mean your underwriting requirements have been consistent and that’s been a consistent headwind, I guess for you guys for far back as I can remember, so maybe it’s little more acute now with in the marketplace given similar remarks made by other bankers I have talked to. But is it looking out into the calendar year, do you anticipate being able to make some headway growing your balance sheet, growing loans and will that help you to continue to engage in the mortgage banking business, do you think?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Well, I think you’re talking about two separate items. If you're thinking about balance sheet growth, we are really thinking about the community banking business, part of which is well single-family loan origination volume which is primarily adjustable rate with many applicants are not interested in. Although as interest rates have risen there has been more interest by applicants for adjustable rate loans and we will see that as single-family production volume has gone up a bit as a result of that. But if you're looking for speaking to the community bank as it relates to the competitive pressure on origination volume, I think we are seeing some lenders who have actually back off a bit with respect to being so competitive primarily on underwriting terms as a result of the concern with respect to whether or not we're long in the truth every time and the like and whether real estate volumes can really continue going up in the multi-family commercial real estate sector. So I think that will help some. And then another consideration is with respect to prepayments. So to the extent that interest rates have risen which they have and new loans are being originated on the higher interest rate then what maybe in the balance of portfolios across the universe of banks. There conceptually will be fewer loan payoffs that are occurring with respect to that loan -- with respect to those loan portfolios. Now we did see a decline in payoffs in the December quarter from the September quarter and the June quarter of 2018 which September or June was very high numbers and that could help us with respect to maintaining our balance in the portfolio. So it will continue to be a headwind, I think but I think that pressure might be -- it will be aided to some degree with respect to lenders backing off a little bit on aggressiveness and multi-family commercial and with respect to the loan payoffs declining as a result of the rising interest rates. Tim O’Brien: So talking about the mortgage banking business and looking at the slide deck in your lock pipeline, lock numbers do you had at year-end, are those just some of the lowest you recall seeing in the business?

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Yes, they were certainly the lowest with respect to this cycle and remember that that mortgage business is somewhat cyclical as well with December quarter can still be a relatively decent quarter with respect to volumes. But as you work your way through the December quarter, you are essentially funding out of your pipeline because the pipeline doesn’t grow during the Holidays. And then as people come back in January that pipeline begins to build once again but not sufficient offset the decline from the prior quarter. So the March quarter can actually be a lower production volume quarter the entire year. So we would expect weaker volumes in the March quarter than what we saw in the December quarter and we’ve noted that whenever we described ourselves in a current quarter what we would expect, we point everybody back to the locked pipeline that we disclosed and to the locked -- to the extent the locked pipeline is low starting at a very low number, we would expect that that volume then doesn’t keep funded as much through the quarter. Tim O’Brien: It seems like it’s above 16% last year’s number and obviously historically that March production and March business has been historically seasonally low and but this just seems more acute than typical. I guess looking beyond that at the business, are there any signs, anything in the marketplace that looks promising from the standpoint of your mortgage banking business, you’re looking beyond the March quarter out into the Spring quarter and then into the summer time, anything in Southern California in the housing market that you find could help shot up the business and?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Well, it’s hard to say if you think back year ago to what we were talking about, we were looking forward to spring and summer buying seasons except they didn’t happen. We were very quiet compared to the prior years. At this point, the market still seems slow, there is a lot more properties listed for sale, they don’t seem to be moving whether that’s because of the time of the year right now can’t say but we’re not doing or seeing a lot of activity from our real estate business, so with realtors. And so I hesitate we're going to have that strong spring buying season because at this point we just can’t see it.

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

And the other thing to think about at least in California which is where we conduct our business, so as the interest rates kept going up obviously the refinance volume has declined considerably. And even with rates having come down a bit from kind of the December quarter highs if you will, they are only up by about 40 basis points or so if you will on the third year fixed conforming. That doesn’t necessarily entice an existing borrower to go out and refinance their product. But coupled with that, is the fact that loan sales activity in California have come down to very low numbers. And if you read any data in California really across the entire state, home sales themselves are down as much as 20% on a year-over-year basis and maybe little more in other pockets, a little less in other pockets. But that’s kind of new in this part of the cycle in that not only as refinance volume down but also home sales are down even though inventory is up. And so that doesn’t necessarily suggest that the headwinds are going away anytime soon. Tim O’Brien: So with that, can you talk a little bit about your commitment to that line of business strategically at this juncture given kind of how poor the outlook is here at this point and how weak volumes have been from a cyclical standpoint and also kind of looking at your quarterly loss levels in that unit, what is your commitment stand relative to where it’s been historically?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

We just haven’t seen a cycle like this last this long, Tim, a downward cycle, it’s just really surprising and difficult for us to plan what we’re doing, we continue as we’ve noted, we have tried to right-size this thing but just seems like every quarter we’re still little behind on where the volumes are going. And then it's we would have never expected looking to have cycles if we would have been in this position today. Tim O’Brien: So are you at a point where you can continue to make incremental adjustments to the business that I guess just try to minimize losses in a low production environment?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Even in the past, we’ve done some reductions and then 60 days later have to hire the people back. So unfortunately, but so that’s why I think there's a slight lag there, but yes we still can make incremental reductions to that point.

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

And additionally what you’ve seen if you look at those quarterly losses, essentially the changes that we have been making to reduce capacity and operating expenses have essentially stabilized the losses. So the losses aren’t giving anymore but they’re also not getting reduced, that's because the origination volume is going away as quick, a bit quicker than the changes that we can make. So the operating losses are stabilized, that’s not comforting per se but that’s what has occurred during this cycle. Tim O’Brien: I noticed that on the operating loss front that there has been some stability there and obviously the profitability of the community bank has offset, you guys have generally stayed profitable and that’s a credit to you given kind of this -- the situation in mortgage banking. One last question as far as launch sale margins are concerned, can you give any color I mean obviously there were some stability and that was a minor positive point of note for the quarter. Can you share any thoughts looking out about the landscape there, is it heading to the direction you don’t like as well kind of given -- given what’s going on in the March quarter or do you feel like that that number is okay and that’s where the market is kind of settled out at this juncture?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

I think we’re pretty disciplined with respect to our loan sale margin needs. We analyze that daily if you will and we change our pricing daily with respect to what the environment looks like. But I think that the takeaway with respect to where we’re at today in our margin in comparisons to the range that we describe in our Investor deck we are at the high-end of our loan sale margin. I think we will remain disciplined and possibly stay up at that higher end of the range because what we find is we can’t generate enough volume by lowering that loan sale margin to offset the lower margin. So it’s a balancing act between volume and margin, we’ve landed at the high-end of the range right now but that doesn’t mean that we would chase some additional volume that we saw that was really there and couldn't get paid towards that additional volume by lowering our margin. So it’s settled where it is right now, we’re going to be in that range, I would expect and maybe at the top end of that range.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead.

Kevin Swanson

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Maybe just one question kind of follow-up, have you guys seen any change in the overall level of non-bank competitors, I think maybe some commentary out of the few who have seen some consolidation, just curious if you’re seeing on that front?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

With respect to mortgage banking competitors?

Kevin Swanson

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Yes.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Yes, I mean there are competitors that are non-bank competitors that maybe don't have the staying power that banker, a mortgage banker or true bank, community bank has. And so yes, we've also seen some of those pressures. Kind of another thing we’ve seen in this quarter at least from a few, those that are holding the servicing portfolio, they have not necessarily been able to market that servicing portfolio to offset the origination losses and in fact because interest rates have come down, pre-maintenance fees in their models have probably gone up that and they’ve actually had to mark those servicing portfolios down in some cases from the higher end of the servicing portfolio range. So that would also add pressure with respect to profitability for some of these non-bank competitors that hold tremendous amount of servicing.

Kevin Swanson

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Okay. And just curious on the kind of the business you guys are doing the mortgage banking, how is there a percentage on competition with these non-banks like do you all grow each loan, is it a couple of them, is it maybe one, maybe once in a while just kind of curious?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

It’s increasing that will be the best way to put it especially by the direct lenders, non-bank direct lenders.

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

And the other thing that we’re seeing, we’re QM lender, we are seeing many other non-bank lenders who have gone down the path of underwriting and credit standards getting into non-QM product that has increased some but there is a lot of talk around that right now. So I think we are going to see some of that occur as pressure or headwinds persist, you’ll see some lenders put down the credit curve and except used to underwriting standards in order to keep that volumes, that’s not something we’re interested in at this stage.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

And by the way we’ve seen that from bank competitors as well just not non-bank.

Kevin Swanson

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Okay. Yes, I guess that kind of leads me for my -- maybe my final question, obviously credit for you guys continues to steadily improve, are you guys seeing anything to suggest the cycle may return, I know you mentioned that it seems like maybe houses are staying on the market for a little bit longer, just curious what you’re seeing on that end?

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Well I don't -- no, I don’t think so, not at this point, but I think it’s -- a part of it is not interest rates of course it's price and prices are up significantly in most areas above even the peaks of 2007. So until people adjust their prices little more reasonably I think there is lot of people sitting on the headlines saying I don’t want to pay the top of the market and then see you guys pay down after I buy, so they are not just entering and that’s why I’m hearing from a number of realtors that I do business with.

Donavon Ternes

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Yes. And so yes there could be some soften -- well in fact we’re seeing it from the data, the rate of increase with price appreciation has gone down, it’s still up year-over-year but it’s up much lesser than it was a year ago and a year prior to that. So price appreciation has certainly come in with respect to the single-family space. With respect to multi-family and commercial we’re not seeing anything in particular in traditional lending, if you will. There might be some things in shared national credits or leverage lending that certainly if you read some of the OCC data or regulatory data, there are some weakness or some softness there. But in the fundamental, our bread and butter multi-family lending or commercial real estate lending, we’re not really seeing anything that would suggest what the top of the market that’s going to soon come in from where it currently is. Again I think we would probably argue the same point that be it a price appreciation in those markets will slow, but at the end of the day debt covers are still there, interest rates are still relatively low by historical standards and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of pressure if you will on core credits in those markets.

Kevin Swanson

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Great, that’s really helpful color. All my questions -- all my questions are answered. Thanks guys.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. At this time, we have no further questions in queue.

Craig Blunden

Analyst · Kevin Swanson, Hovde Group. Please go ahead

If there are no further questions, I appreciate everyone’s participation in our call and I look forward to speaking with all of you again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude your conference. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.