Edward P. Baird
Analyst · Citigroup
Let me break that down for you into a couple of timeframes. We continue to have tremendous growth out of our existing businesses as we just reviewed, in particular, Japan, and secondarily would be Korea. If you look out more in the medium term, I'd bring up as an example, Brazil, which you mentioned. So let me provide you a little bit of specifics there. In fact, of the -- if you look at the chart, of the $14 million in growth year-over-year, that came out of the Other countries, $10 million of that $14 million came out of Brazil. And in sales I'm talking about, excuse me. I'll focus on sales and then we'll talk a little bit about profitability after that, because sales obviously, are the primary leading indicator of this. So that puts them up quarter-over-quarter almost 60%. And that quarter is not an anomaly. Brazil, for the year, is up around 60%. What's particularly encouraging about that is it's coming from all 3 of the healthy drivers, so the headcount is up around 35% and the rest of that growth is attributed to average premium and productivity. So last year, we saw a growth of roughly from 600 to almost 800 in the number of life planners. They have now broken into that range where they're covering their fixed costs and they're now starting to produce a small profit. So in the immediate future, I would not see them materially contributing to AOI. But if you extrapolate out into sort of a mid-range term, in the 3 to 5 year, I can see them starting to be a material contributor to the profitability. And I think that is the kind of growth that will be sustainable for a very long time. It's an enormous market with tremendous intrinsic secular growth that's available to it and we have an extraordinary position in that marketplace. And then in the long term would be markets like the Malaysia one that we pointed out to you, places like China and India, but I would position them to be somewhat further out on the spectrum. But what it gives us and what our plan is, is to have a steady sort of 3-staged growth where we get the profit coming out of our significant mature markets, we get some kicking in, in that midterm range and then others that hold potential, more in mid-term, long-term future. That's the strategy that we employ as we look at the markets.