Ken Tanji
Analyst · Ryan Krueger with KBW. And your line is open
Thanks, Rob. I’ll begin on Slide 11, which provides insight into earnings for the second quarter of 2021 relative to our first quarter results. Pre-tax adjusted operating income in the first quarter was $2.1 billion and resulted in earnings per share of $4.11 on an after-tax basis; then we adjust for the following items. First, variable investment income outperformed expectations in the first quarter, which is worth $275 million. Second, we adjust underwriting experience by $160 million. This includes a placeholder for COVID-19 claims experience of an additional $70 million based upon 55,000 COVID-19 related fatalities in the U.S. during the second quarter. Third, we expect expenses and other items to be approximately $500 million lower in the second quarter, primarily as a result of favorable items in first quarter, including the $378 million gain from the sale of PGIM’s joint venture in Italy and seasonality. Fourth, we anticipate net investment income will be reduced by $10 million, reflecting difference between new money rates to disposition yields of our investment portfolio. These items combined get us to a baseline of $2.89 per share for the second quarter. I’ll note that if you exclude items specific to the second quarter, earnings per share would be $2.97. The key takeaway is that our underlying earnings power increased from last quarter, including the benefit from business growth and higher equity markets. While we have provided these items to consider, please note that there may be other factors that affect earnings per share in the second quarter. I would also note that we continue to expect the full year 2021 corporate and other loss to be about $1.5 billion. On Slide 12, we provided an update on the potential impact of the pandemic. Consistent with the information we provided on our fourth quarter call, the estimated sensitivity of operating income for $100,000 incremental U.S. death due to the pandemic is about $85 million. As I noted earlier, our second quarter baseline includes a net mortality impact of $70 million due to COVID-19. The actual impact will depend on a variety of factors, such as infection and fatality rates, geographic concentration, and the continued speed acceptance and effectiveness of the vaccine rollout. Turning to Slide 13. We continued to maintain a robust capital position and adequate sources of funding. Our capital position continues to support AA financial strength rating, and we have substantial sources of funding. Our cash and liquid assets were $5.4 billion, which is greater than 3 times annual fixed charges and other sources of funds include free cash flow from our businesses and other continued capital facilities. Turning to Slide 14. And in summary, we are on track with our key initiatives that we maintain disciplined capital management while returning additional capital to shareholders, and we continue to benefit from the support of our rock solid balance sheet. Now I’ll turn it to the operator for your questions.