Robert Falzon
Analyst · Citi. Your line is now live
This is Rob. So I'll take your question, Mike. So a couple of thoughts. One, from an overall market standpoint, let me start there. From a peak to trough, what we've seen is across the market, about a 16% correction, and that number relates to, what I'll call, institutional quality real estate, the sort of things that we invest in or we lend against, and that's on an unlevered basis. Our estimate is that the peak to trough in this cycle across real estate types is going to probably be a little over 20%. So we've got 5% or 6% probably left in the way of price correction yet to experience. Now, within that, office, obviously, has corrected much more severely closer to 30% to date, and probably has another 10%, 15% yet to go. Because the construction of our portfolio is significantly underweight office, and because the overall quality of the portfolio and the diversification of it across geography and property types, and importantly, because this is a portfolio that's directly originated by PGIM with the team that's deep and averages some 25 years of industry experience, we're actually finding that our portfolio is holding up quite well. So loan to values across the portfolio were about 58% and our discount -- our debt service coverage ratios remain right around 2.5%. Within our overall portfolio, our actual valuations increased about 6% during the course of 2023 despite the fact that we saw a double-digit decline in the office component of our portfolio. But again, because that office component is only 2% of our assets or 50% -- about 14% of our mortgages, the performance of the rest of the portfolio has offset that. So, with regard to portfolio performance, we're actually feeling quite good. The last thing that you asked about was sort of what we're seeing in watch list, et cetera. I guess the way I would describe that, Mike, is that, first, if we look at our experience with maturities during 2023, we had about $2 billion worth of scheduled maturities. Of those, we provided modifications for four -- less than $400 million of that $2 billion with those modifications providing longer-term extensions. The remainder of all of those maturities was resolved favorably through refinancing payoffs or short-term extensions that then led or leading to subsequent payoffs. In the upcoming year 2024, we've got about $3 billion of maturities coming on. That's about 6% of the portfolio that's maturing. And while we don't expect to be immune from this cycle by any means, we do expect that on a relative basis, we'll be quite resilient. We increased our reserves in the real estate portfolio to around $370 million as of the end of the year and that represents about 72 basis points, and we think that that's well provisioned against the portfolio, again, given what we've experienced in the underlying quality of that portfolio.