Earnings Labs

Pearson plc (PSO)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 26, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Pearson Interim Results Presentation Analyst Call. [Operator Instructions] Just to remind you, this conference is being recorded. I'll now hand to our hosts, John Fallon, CEO; and Coram Williams, CFO. Gentlemen, please begin.

John Fallon

Analyst

Well, hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us. As you heard, it's John Fallon here and I've got Coram Williams with me. These, as you can see, are a strong set of half-year figures. Underlying sales were up 2%, profits up 30%, operating cash flow is also stronger with a further reduction in net debt underpinning our continued investment in building a better more digitally powered business. A 9% increase in the interim dividend is in line with our commitment to sustainable and progressive dividend policy. The results reflect the ongoing shift in the dynamics of the business. Through digital transformation, we're seeing the ongoing recovery in our courseware and assessment businesses, down only 1% on prior year and sales from our structural growth opportunities are up 6% against a strong comparative last year. And with major milestones reached, the simplification program now shifts from recovery of renewal to providing a powerful platform for future growth. We're on track to at least stabilize revenues this year and return the business to sustainable top line growth from 2020. So let’s have Coram talk you through the numbers, and then I'll be back to talk a little more about the future growth potential efficient. Coram?

Coram Williams

Analyst

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. John has already taken you through the headlines. So I'm going to look at each of the geographies in a little more detail. Starting with revenue. North America was up 1%. We saw good revenue growth in our structural growth opportunities. Online Program Management and Connections Academy benefited from continued strong enrollment growth and Professional Certification benefited from strength in key segments on the ramp-up of new contracts. This was partially offset by expected modest declines in U.S. Higher Education Courseware and Student Assessment. As we explained in Q1, U.S. Higher Education Courseware faced tougher comparison in the first half of 2019 than indeed in H1 2018, which was helped by the absence of the additional returns provision that we took in the first half of 2017. As a result, first half revenues declined at the rate in line with the middle of our guidance range for the year of flat to down minus 5%. Digital revenues in Higher Education Courseware grew modestly on a like-for-like basis. We benefited from good growth in Revel. This was partially offset by continued declines in developmental mathematics and the planned retirement and de-prioritization of a longer tail of older, lower value titles in advance of our launch of the products on the global learning platform. With some help from phasing, Co [ph] had a strong first half with grades in school and Higher Education Courseware, U.K. Student Assessment and Qualifications, OPM, PG Academic and Professional Certification. In U.K. Student Assessment and Qualifications, we saw good growth in GCSE, A level, BTEC Firsts and Higher Nationals and the new digital assessment contract in Egypt, which shows the exciting global opportunities that exist in assessment. This was partially offset by continued declines in U.K. Apprenticeships, which will continue…

John Fallon

Analyst

Thanks, Coram. So as you can see, we're now on the cusp of the next stage in the Pearson transformation and that's when we transition from a period of renewal and recovery to more sustainable future growth. And that growth is driven by a clear view of where we want the company to be in 5 years time and how we're going to get there. You've seen this slide before, you're familiar with the strategies, I won't run through it in detail, but just to summarize, with the world's learning company, we help over 100 million learners around the world to make progress in their lives through learning. And as we help shape the future of learning, we're all about making quality of education more accessible, affordable to formal people. That means as a part of a wider ecosystem, building platforms that made learning highly engaging, effective and relevant to the changing nature of work. We see a world of talent and a world of opportunity. As we help more and more learners prepare for, develop in and change careers through what will be increasingly a lifetime of learning. This is a strategy for growth based on three key strums. First, as our Courseware and Assessment businesses become even more digital, revenues will first start to stabilize and then grow again. Second, as we invest more in our businesses in structurally growing markets, these businesses grow both more quickly and from a bigger base. And third, a simple more efficient Pearson built on highly scalable global platforms is able to reallocate investment to growth opportunities more adeptly, we're able to innovate quickly and at scale and were able to build a more direct longer term relationship with those 100 million learners who use our products every year. So let's take…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Sami Kassab of Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open,

Sami Kassab

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. I have three questions to begin with, please. So can you just put a revenue number on the Egyptian Assessment contract? Secondly, where are you via [ph] accreditation of the PTE in Canada? And lastly, can you come back on the decline in the online registration in Higher Ed Courseware? I understand the move to the global learning platform, but you also referring to market pressure in mass. Can you elaborate on that market pressure, please? Thank you, John.

John Fallon

Analyst

Thanks, Sami. And good morning. Coram, do you want to pick up on the Egyptian contracts and I'll pick up on the other two?

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes, thanks, John. Morning. Morning, Sami. Look, it's a very exciting contract for us as we say in the press release because it involves a significant number of tests over the 4 years. And I think it demonstrates the opportunity that we've got for our assessment businesses outside of our traditional strengths of the U.S. and the U.K., but it is in ramp-up phase. So you should work on the basis that it's mid-single-digit millions of pounds of revenue in the first half numbers.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Coram. On your second question Sami,, in both Canada and the U.K. there is an ongoing process with the authorities when there's some news we'll share with you with the ongoing process at this point. And then, just on the digital registration, really to just sort of repeat and expand a little bit on the what Coram and I both said in the presentation. There's sort of two headwinds we've got going on here. One is, college enrollment, particularly in the community college sector as you we’re continuing to decline. And the impact of that in our case is compounded by ongoing very significant changes in the way developmental education courses are taught, particularly around math where historically we have the market share of something in the 70% range. In addition to that, we've identified a long tail of digital products, which as I said, have low-value and low use, where frankly, the cost of transfer in the amounts of global learning platform cost is more than the revenue they generate for us on an annual basis. If we were just sort of seeing those two things flush through numbers and nothing else would - was happening, our digital registrations would be down about 5%. The fact that they're only down 1% tells you that actually in underlying terms, we're continuing to see the analog to digital conversion continue. So good growth in Revel as you heard and good growth in BTECs. I think we should expect that sort of trend to sort of continue. We're going to see continue impacts in developmental education. We've got another sort of 18 months of work to do in retiring that long tail. And then as we start to launch new products on the global learning platform at scale, which is really sort of from this time next year through into 2021, then you'll start to see digital registrations growth. So I think you should assume sort of flat down minus 1 sort of launch for the next year or so in headline terms, but the underlying growth is still there and that’s going to feed into top line growth in registrations thereafter. And in the meantime, of course, we will continue to see revenues from digital grow as they did in the first half.

Sami Kassab

Analyst

Thank you, John. This is very, very helpful. Can I come back on the PTE, you gave market share for study and visa at 10%. Can you elaborate a little bit on the competitive landscape, I'm not so familiar with that side of market segment? Is ETS the main player you're facing here where you have 90% of the market or who are the other players in the market?

John Fallon

Analyst

There's two major incumbents in this place. One is a joint venture between the British Council Cambridge Assessments and an Australian company called IDP, which sound something called Isle [ph] And then as you correctly said, there's a product called Tofo [PH] which is run by ETS. We are the fast-growing third player in the market and then if you, I think, in Canada there's a local player as well and you – there is one or two local players here in the U.K., but that's broadly the competitive landscape.

Sami Kassab

Analyst

And the 10% was just for Australia or for the markets where you compete in?

John Fallon

Analyst

That's our - our share in Australia is significantly higher. That would be our overall share of the study in visa market. So that would really be looking across the major country, major English-speaking country. So really it's the U.S., Canada, Australia and the U.K.

Sami Kassab

Analyst

Thank you very much, John.

John Fallon

Analyst

Thanks, Sami.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Katherine Tait of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Katherine Tait

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. And three questions for me, please. Firstly, on OPM, you talked about 13% enrollment growth. Can you help us understand how that translates into revenue profit growth too? And if its linked to that, I know you talked about strong pipeline going forward. But I'm aware that some of your peers have been seeing slowing growth more than having from their customers and higher student acquisition costs. Is this something you're also seeing or perhaps you can just make a couple of comments on those points? Second question on U.S. Higher Ed Courseware, so I see this one from declining slightly in the first quarter to declining at the midpoint of the zero to minus 5 range for the first half. Can you perhaps talk about whether or not you're losing share within this market? I would say when we talk about the phasing - shifting more to the first half from the second half as you obviously become more digital. So perhaps an update in terms of what you're seeing there? And then finally, you talked quite a bit in the release about the employer education partnership with Manpower opportunity. Can you talk a bit about how big this is today as part of the business and perhaps what makes you the best partner for the players in this market? Thank you.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much Katherine. Coram, do you want to pick up on how OPM sort of the enrollment growth swings into - turns into revenue and profit, and also around phasing of Higher Ed sales and then I'll pick up on the pipeline and market share performance and then I'll pick up on the Manpower point as well.

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. Hi, Catherine, I think we said in the past when we're talking about OPM that the enrollment growth is really a good leading indicator of revenue growth, but there is a lag to that revenue growth, because you bring those students onboard and then the fees start to come through, but obviously they are deferred at reparative times. So in a good way to think about is that you see the revenue growth comes through sort of 12 to 18 months after you get the enrollment. In terms of profitability, I think we've also run you through the characteristics of these contracts, which is that for the first couple of years, typically the investment in the marketing spend, means that we run them at a loss and then you - that turns and we pick up and make good profitability in the back end. So I think you should assume that the profits relating to the enrollments come through a year or 2 after you see the revenue. So enrollment growth and revenue growth and profit growth. And just to remind you the IRR on these contracts is very strong. So we're talking 35%-plus is a very good return on the investment that we're making. In terms of the timing of the revenue in Higher Ed, it's really important to remember the phasing effect that we have. So in terms of the first half of 2018, it was really helped in comparative terms by the returns top up that we took in H1 and in H2. So you can't infer anything from the comparison because the 2018 comp was an easy one in '17, it's much tougher now for at '19. And so on that basis, the middle of the range that we're in feels like the right place to be and isn't distorted by the returns and 2017. There's one other point I want to pick up on, which is I think you mentioned in your question that digital bring sales forward, it's actually the other way around. Digital moves sales closer to the point at which the student requires them and consumes the content and therefore, you would - all other things being equal except to see a move later in the sales periods.

John Fallon

Analyst

Thanks, Coram. And then just coming back on the Online Program Management, the broader question you asked for me. The only way to think about it is that really four big roles that we play with our University partners. The first is that we are constantly actively managing our portfolio of University partners in program. So have we got the right regional mix and balance, have we got the courses aligned with where the biggest gaps in GLT [ph] the market? Is it aligned for some of the biggest growth trends around digital on the line, so we are actively managing the portfolio all the time. And you can see that in the number of new programs that we’re launching and the programs that they retire, and we referred to that in the press release. Secondly, then, we're trying to market those programs as effectively as we can to generate a pool of appropriate people for whom this would present the right career opportunity. And then the third element is then to translate those leads or convert those leads into enroll students. And fourth, most critically and more importantly, ensure that we deliver on the promise to those students by helping them to compete their cources and be successful and help to place them into a better job or career. We are investing not just in the marketing, but improving each of that four step in the process. And there's a lot of work that we can do around how we are using AI for example, to get more better and getting you better return on investment. So we actively work in each of those four elements of the process all the time, and you'll start to see the benefits of that work over the next couple of years. So…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Singlehurst of Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

Hi. Tom here from Citi. Thanks for taking the questions. Actually, three quick ones. I think you just alluded to John, but just to pen you down on that, hopeful I think the adoption sort of part of the year on a higher cost of that side has come to an end. When you talk about strong competitive position, you're obviously talking about confidence, that you haven't lost any share in the adoption rate. That was the first question. Second question, actually on the English language side, I know that you've got the Slide on English language assessment. I was just wondering whether you could sort of talk about English language learning, is there any sort of particular trend there that we should be aware of? And I'd say - actually I think that I only have three questions.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Just [indiscernible] Tom on second question, what are the big trends we're seeing in English language learning?

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

Yes, yes. Its notable and its absent in the presentation, I mean obviously it's very skewed to Latin America now, but is there anything you would call out particularly in the trend?

John Fallon

Analyst

Well, I think I did say that as well as seeing a big opportunity in the Pearson Test of English and Associated Higher States Assessment, we did see a big opportunity in English Courseware, particularly as we go more digital and as particularly relying into assessment. And actually one of the things that we have done over the last year is on the back of making the strategic decision to exit the direct delivery of the English language teaching with the sales of Wall Street English and Gather [ph] that has actually given us the opportunity to sort of reinvest in our Courseware businesses, building on our competitive advantage, which are in digital and assessment and we actually got some good products coming to market this year that we are excited about one of the next-generation of products, one of the sort of big use cases, if you like, to the global learning platform is also going to be one of our new big blockbuster English Courseware Program. So we are continue to be committed to it and excited by the opportunity. And just to – I don’t know I have said, more then what I said now to question from Katherine, which is, you're right, we are through the major adoption - with the team last week. As in any year, you win some and you lose some, but overall we're feeling good and strong about our competitive performance that we have held our own and as I said, we will see market share held pretty much steady in the range it's been over the last few years.

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

And 1 quick follow-up on that topic. I mean obviously with [indiscernible] sort of obviously considering combining, how does that impact sort of sales process across the back of the year, does that create any temporary opportunities or disruption from one and the other?

John Fallon

Analyst

I think, you'll understand from the - I'd rather focus on what we're doing and making sure, that we are doing a brilliant job of meeting the needs of our customers. I mean, clearly I think you probably got a sense from the presentation, one of the things we do feel very good about is the process of completely reengineering the technology platforms of this company, the process of taking over £300 million of the cost of business have the potential to be highly disruptive and very distracting. So the fact that we sustained our competitive performance through all that disruption is great. And what's exciting that's now behind us. And so now was really good is that we're really focused on the future and we're very focused on making the most of the great opportunity that we see ahead of this. So that's what I think as good about the future for us.

Thomas Singlehurst

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Dempsey of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Nicholas Dempsey

Analyst

Good morning, So first question, when you talk about 300 additional titles for Revel in 2020, are we talking about those being available? So how confident are you to high numbers of faculty members will adopt those in the spring of 2020? And therefore, you'll be able to fill them in September or there going to be a slow process to get those products into the market through those adoptions. That's the first question. And then, second question on in terms of digital registration. So as I understand you're saying that digital registrations will be done, digital revenues will be up a bit. And we're talking about through 2020. You still got drags from enrollments. You still got drags from the print side of things. So are we saying that we're looking at another decline for sure in 2020 based on those dynamics in U.S. Higher Ed Courseware?

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Nick. I'll pick up on the first question and then Coram might want to pick up on the second around revenues and just remind you with the guidance we've given you on the role of digital revenues play. The 300 revel titles that we're talking about are titles that are already in the market today, but they're on a legacy platform. The one is much more expensive us to serve and to support the growth in those registrations and secondly, limit the new features and functionality that we can offer. So what we're saying is all our revel titles will be on the global learning platform for back to school next year. That will make for an enhanced user experience. Learners already love, if you look at the NPS scores, they always already get a very strong response from students, but we'll be further able to improve the student experience, but crucially the platform that revel is currently on those inhibit our ability to enhance features and functionality for faculty, particularly for example, in areas like authentic assessment where we want to provide faculty with the availability to set for example, their own assessment - the machine can then assess on their behalf. So what this means is all revel titles are on the new platform, as it continues to grow and scale, it costs us less to serve and support those revel products and it enables to continue to enhance and improve the student experience and provide teachers with faculty with much greater functionality, which is going to make them more likely to want to use and adopt revel as a product. So that's on the first point. Secondly, Coram can you just remind our guidance on the contribution from digital revenues in higher education.

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes. Let me just touch a bit on the sort of framework that we've laid out for higher education. I mean, there are pressures on the enrollments, but as we know, it is linked to the economic cycle. And so that can vary in line with economy. Though we're as we know has a limited impact on our revenues in higher education. It's an area that we track very closely. And then clearly there are ongoing print declines and digital revenue growth and we've seen it in the first half and you expect us to see digital revenue growth in the second half. So I think, despite the registration pressure that John has walked you through, we are seeing revenue growth in digital and we would expect that to continue. We're not going guide to 2020 at this stage for obvious reasons., but I think we are excited about the prospects that we see in higher education as the result of the roadmap, the GLP and products that will come on back to back.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Walker at Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Matthew Walker

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, John. Good morning, Coram.

Coram Williams

Analyst

Hi, Matthew.

Matthew Walker

Analyst

Good morning, hi. A few questions please. The first is, can you just expand on your recent announcement about the printed books? Because my understanding is obviously you're cutting the number of printed books that are going to be new additions, but the print books for older editions will still be available if people like Amazon or whatever order them or anyone wants to order them. Can you just give us a feel for, let's say, for 2021, in terms of the actual number of books that are going to be produced as a range, how does it move from the say '19 to '20 to '21 under this system? Just to get an idea of scale because we don't believe how much is – how many old editions will be ordered versus new additions, et cetera. So just to get a feel for that would be helpful. Second thing is on the guidance, on core, I think in end of 2018 you guided for this year, for core to be stable. Barely you've done 6% in the first half. Looking at what you're saying about Egypt, you said mid-single-digit revenues for Egypt that, I guess, implies about 10 million for the full year, that's the least percentage point of growth. Can you update your guidance for core from stable to something else, because otherwise it doesn't really look very realistic? And then, last question is on tax. It seems like every year we started '21 then we edge down a bit in the first half, then we edge down a little bit in the 9 months. By the time we get to the full year the tax rates gone from 21 to 11, how much extra tax savings et cetera is there to go? And like should we just stop putting our tax rates for '21, '22, '23 at an 11% to 15% - trouble of having to reduce that constantly later on?

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Very good questions Matthew. So I'll ask Coram to pick up on tax and guidance on core geographies. And then I'll sort of talk a little bit more about the digital first strategy.

Coram Williams

Analyst

Thank you. Hi, Matt. How are you?

Matthew Walker

Analyst

I am brilliant. Well, I with all seasons been a bit…

Coram Williams

Analyst

On core, I mean, it's clear, we've had a good start to the year in core. It's not just Egypt though, there are three phasing facts that I think I mentioned. The first is the Egyptian contract, which is new and which we've quantified. The second is that courseware in both the U.K. and Europe has benefited from some early order patterns and there are very different reasons by in country, but that's coming together and given us a bit of a phasing benefit there. I think the second - the third thing to remember is the various ongoing pressure in our printer ships business and where is the benefits at levels of BTEC and GCSE and this proportion we felt the first half, the drag on apprenticeships is a bit more spread between first and second half. So if we had a good start, we're halfway through the year, I think it's looking promising for core, but you must remember there are some phasing effects in those numbers. In terms of tax, I think couple of points here. Firstly, it is unprecedented tax environment right now. There's a lot going on. U.S. tax reform is once in a generation experience in terms of the changes to the rules and the rates. And you also have a series of other changes going on in the way in which countries think about international transport pricing in the sub line. So it is a more difficult tax environment to forecast. Last year, we benefited from, not just U.S. tax reform, which became clearer as the year progressed because the other aspect of it was that was introduced very quickly with minimum detail, but there were a couple of other one-offs, which were driven by things that we had done in the past and by improving our relationships with tax authorities. So last year was absolutely exceptional. This year, it's been a small adjustment, which is really come from us getting clearer, again, on some of the aspects of U.S. tax reform and that's why we're now guiding to 17% to 19%. I don't believe that fundamentally changes our long-term guidance in tax of '20 to '22. I think if you were to pitch it towards the bottom of that range, you would be modeling in the right way.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Coram. And then, Matthew, just to pick up on your -- answer your first question, maybe I can sort of break it down into a couple of [indiscernible] related theme. The first thing is really most fundamentally, which is around how do we create and make new products and new revisions as we become the Digital First Courseware company. So, although we've been on a extended analog-to-digital transition in this business over the last 15 years, 55% of the revenues last year were now digital, but the product development cycle has still been analog. So in other words, it was all driven by the 3-year revision cycle, but new physical textbooks, which have been driven the economics of the industry since at least the 1970s. It's time to break that. So from now onwards, product updates are done in a Digital First way. And the types of reasons why you update a product is, changes in the body of knowledge, a new scientific breakthrough, a new compelling business case study, a major development in world history or contemporary politics or whatever it would be. And in there, you don't wait 3 years. You can now do it from 1 semester to another. Secondly, as we really up our investment efficacy research, we're learning a lot more about the user experience about learning design, about cognition and how people learn. We're making big breaks those around artificial intelligence and how we do authentic assessment and the like. Rather than having to wait the 3 years title by title, and do that is the sort of follow-up supplemental to the print, it clearly makes sense to completely flip that. And so as those big developments and insights come through, we have the capacity to make those changes in real time…

Matthew Walker

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much,

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for taking the questions. So three of them, please. John and Coram, you gave us in 2018 a split of U.S. higher rent by product model between digital - print digital and print, just wondering if you could update perhaps that revenue split it would be incredibly helpful. Secondly, given the announcement that you've made a couple of weeks ago about decommissioning or stopping to add its new print textbooks, should we assume that print decline should accelerate in the coming years? And then thirdly, as a follow-up question to what was asked about revenue growth in core, what would a drivers of the underlying improvement in profitability in the core business because you've converted 100% of incremental revenues into profits? Thank you very much.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Coram, do you want to pick up on those?

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes. Sure. Let me take each in turn. I mean terms, of the split of the business. I think it's best to do that for the full year, because obviously you do have distortions at the half year because of some of a phasing effects that I've talked about between physical and when digital sales are made. But just to remind you, this is at the full year of 2018 we were 55% digital and 45% print. I think in terms of the dynamics between print and digital, I think you'd expect to continue to see similar dynamics as we were through this transition. Obviously print will continue to decline. And as John has described, we're very much focusing on the digital side of the content, but it's going to become an ever smaller part of the base. And then in terms of core, the thing you have to remember that it's not just the revenue drop through, but it's also the restructuring savings that we have seen come through in the first half of this year and we just read across each of the geographies. So that's why you're getting drop through on that revenue in core, but there is also restructuring benefiting there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Giasone Salati of Macquarie. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Giasone Salati

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. First question for Coram, please. Can you help us with the - what is your view on H1, H2 balance? We've gone through a couple of years of changing models, different conference and stuff. It looks to me like 2019 should be much more balanced between H1 and H2, but interesting to hear more color on that. Second question and third for John, please. Last year, we had those ERP glitches in the summer, but we understand now most of the technology transition has been completed. Do you see any more technology risk with any of the new products us into the summer we should be wary of? And lastly on Inclusive Access, very strong increase, again, on the number of institutions. They're probably becoming smaller in size. I guess, we're getting into the long tail. Can you give us a feeling for how much of the market is now covered by these Inclusive Access deals? And maybe if you have any indication on the share, clearly I mean, as Sangage [ph] claiming market share for the last few years and that is something that is very, very interesting to monitor because the selling model is exactly the same between you and Sangage? Thank you.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Coram, do you want to pick up on phasing and then I'll pick up on the other 2?

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes, sure. So I mean, obviously we had a good start to the year. I think you're right that there will be more balanced in the phasing, particularly for think about some of the descriptions I've given earlier on and on to the specific questions. The 2 things to remember about second half: One, they're always phasing effects in core; and two, Higher Ed continues its trends, it will still have slightly more weight in the second half than it does the first half. But nevertheless, it's a good start to the year.

John Fallon

Analyst

And Coram, actually do you want to pick up on where we are in the ERP process as well?

Coram Williams

Analyst

Yes. So in terms of the ERP process, we are - and we have it fully implemented in the U.S., and the U.K. That's a big milestone for us. Because, as you know, we started this process with 63 different ERP platforms across Pearson and we now have our 2 biggest markets more than 75% of revenue running at the same core technology backbone. That intern allows us to standard processes, drive working into shared service centers and really reduce our headcount. So I mean, there's a bit more to go, and so far as the remaining 20% of smaller countries. We have a system, which we know can deliver work within all of the business models of Pearson, so you'd expect us to complete that over the next 12 or months.

John Fallon

Analyst

Yes. And I would say on your third question, on Inclusive Access, we're still in the early stages for our adoption here. And actually you've got a probably reasonable cross-section of universities sort of adopted, but it's by far - by no means the biggest ones and actually, probably the earlier adopters have been sort of community colleges, some smaller universities. And it's actually only really now I think that people can see the real benefits of it, that many of the bigger institutions are coming on board. So there's lots of opportunity and lots of further growth to continue to ramp up Inclusive Access take up by universities. \ And then secondly cut off them where we signed up an Inclusive Access partner, we often start with a one faculty and then the other faculty see the benefits that’s bringing both to the students and to the department in terms of the express of the data analytics and the capabilities and service that they provides and then you build out. So Inclusive Access will grow in 2 ways: one, more institutions and two, greater take-up within institutions. There's a lot of growth runway still there.

Giasone Salati

Analyst

And can you help us with the size and that in terms of the market value rather than a number of institutions?

John Fallon

Analyst

Well I think, we've said it's a sort of around sort of 15% of our revenues about at the moment, and so there's lots of opportunity for further growth. So that's probably good proxy for the level of adoption take up so far there's a lot more opportunity. Coram, anything you want to add anything on that?

Coram Williams

Analyst

The only point I'd add John is absolutely spot on with the revenue number. We've got more than that in terms of institutions because you tend to sign up the institutions and then the revenues lag. I think if you're looking for an assumption sort of north of 20% to be institution base would be about right. And that's a good leading indicator of the revenue shifting into the model.

John Fallon

Analyst

The reason is the difference between the 2 is just because we've got the institutions signed up. It doesn't yet, I mean, we've got full take up within the institution and that's why the growth comes in 2 ways.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And as we come to end of last one, I'll hand back to our speakers for the closing commands.

John Fallon

Analyst

Okay. Hi, everybody. Thanks, then, again, for joining us today. Thanks for your interest in the company. Joe, Angeli and Tom are on the call. If you have any follow-up questions in the course of today please let us know. If not, look forward to catching up with you in the due course. Thanks, again, for joining us.

Operator

Operator

This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.