Earnings Labs

Prudential plc (PUK)

Q2 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 13, 2014

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Transcript

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Okay. Good morning everybody, let’s start. You will see that we have adopted a kind of politburo configuration, and you'll probably wonder why. The truth is you can’t see, but they keep making faces at me particularly Barry Stowe over there, so I have decided to change the layout so I can be focused. So now more seriously welcome to 2014 Interim Results for Prudential, we have produced we believe good results across the board. Broad based performance with growth and cash coming out of all four business units and we promised you a while back more of the same and I think we have delivered more of the same. So I will start with fundamentally taking you through the highlights of the group performance and some of I think take you through the first strategy then I will cover Asia and I will do a bit of regional level, a bit of country by country. I will cover Jackson. And Jackie, because she is almost at her first anniversary with us and she has had a lively first half in the UK. We will take the stage and talk to you a little bit about her views on the UK and give you a quick update and I will come back to do M&G, talk to about cash and dividend before Nic does the financial review of our business and I will come back again for outlook and we will then move to questions and answer. So if you look at the numbers and the results -- these results in my mind standout because we have faced a very challenging environment in the first half of the year. If you take into account the microeconomic volatility in some of our key Asian markets, whether it's Indonesia, or Thailand, depreciation…

Jackie Hunt

Analyst

Thank you Tidjane and good morning everyone. As you all well know the UK market has continued to be heavily influenced by an unprecedented level of regulatory and legislative change over the six months. And I think we have delivered a resilient performance against those headwinds with the majority of our metrics ahead of 2013 and Nic will go through those in more detail in his session. The end of compulsory annuitization, and the increase of number of customers have actually deferred converting their pension savings into retirement income led to a reduction in our new business operating profit of 29 million. This financial impact was more than offset by higher levels of bulk annuities and by increased sales of both on-shore and off-shore bonds up 23% and 57% respectively. Now the growth in our bond sales reflects the strength of our investment proposition and the broadening of our distribution capability and that proposition is supported in part by PruFund which Tidjane referred to earlier. We have also seen a doubling of sales and in our income drawn drops will be at from the low base and when we talk about how we see the product suite developing over the future drawn down and some implementation of a flexible drawn down product is obviously fundamentally important. It's worth pointing out that in-force IFRS remains strong, this will continue to be an underpin to our results as we go forward and when we combine with the improved sales performance it enabled us to deliver 374 million of IFRS operating profit at the half year. Now reflecting to some -- that we see the bulks market as an attractive opportunity in which we want to participate more fully and several of the deals that we have actually announced through the first half…

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Thank you Jackie. What I would like to cover is M&G, the results have been very, very strong. If you look at the retail assets M&G has been able to continue to diversify very successfully, a very strong performance in Continental Europe where there are 32%, anybody who can grow at 32% has done well from year-over-year and if you step back and look at the total asset internal versus external, very good performance. We have crossed really a point to the external are now more than half of our assets, it is something we like sort of business is both larger and with a richer mix, of course the profitability is better here. So the total has grown 1.5 times and the external has grown faster, 1.9 times and that is what is driving the profits that you see on the next slide, 227 million, that's the highest ever for M&G the first half. I don’t know it must probably be a shock to Michael, because he didn’t show up today. More seriously, he is on holiday but he is following us, up 11% in profits, it's very creditable performance. So another very, very, very good story in the UK that’s our UK business and very pleasant. So just to wrap up, all that in the end has to translate into cash. We have always talked about that and I encourage you to focus on it. So if you look at the free surplus generation and the dividend and the reinvestment rate it's all a very, very nice story, 2.4 times the free surplus we’re generated in ’08 through the crisis. So that’s something I think the group has been really good at developed a good track record and my last slide will be really the dividend. So I believe it's a good story both from an absolute and on a relative basis, 91% growth from before the crisis and 11.19 as you would expect is one further prior year in the first half of this year. So overall I think we’re allowed to say that this was a very good first half. We have a very broad based performance across the board and I will now hand over to Nic who is going to give you much detail and much more color on how all these numbers were generated by our businesses. Nic?

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Thank you Tidjane and good afternoon everyone. In my presentation I will provide you with the detailed look at the drivers of our financial performance in the first half of 2014 and give you a brief update on our balance sheet. Starting with the financial headlines, the Group has delivered strong performance in the first half with good progress in all of the key financial metrics shown on the slide. This performance stems from the disciplined execution of our strategy which has seen us continue to attract sizeable and highly profitable new flows and manage our in-force business for value. As a result once the currency translation effects are removed IFRS operating profit increased by 17% to 1.5 billion. Free surplus generation was up 13% to 1.2 billion, new business profit on a post-tax basis rose by 24% to just over a 1 billion and embedded value operating profit also on a post-tax basis was 18% higher at 1.9 billion. With long term yields at the end of June being broadly similar to those a year ago interest rates are not a significant factor when comparing the performance between the two periods. The rise in equity markets has provided tailwinds for our fee income businesses and I will highlight the effect of this as I step through the presentation. Because we’re reporting sterling the main external market influence on our headline results are the currency translation effects and I would like to tackle this first before turning to the underlying business performance. As the pie chart on the left show the majority of our profits are earned in U.S. dollars and in various Asian currencies which we translate into sterling when reporting our headline results. In-line with our previous guidance and as illustrated on the right for our major markets…

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

All right. Thank you Nic. So I think you will agree with that this has been a strong first half and I think Nic’s presentation confirms the breadth and the strength and the performance. I believe it underlines the quality of our strategy, we have the right strategy, the quality of the execution of our teams across the world and many of them are in the room today. But I also think further we have been effective in allocating capital and we have given you few examples. It's very easy to underestimate the value of the levers we have, the optionality we have, the breadth of business and channels we have and how that allows us to generate at Group level for best outcomes for the shareholder and I must say having said everything we have had to say about CER, I think Group number is even on AER are very defensible. It's really a very strong performance in a very challenging environment. So, back to macro and this is really our outlook. On the positive side we believe there is a recovery in the U.S., in the UK, it's very strong and that is a strong tailwind for the company going forward. In the U.S. and the in UK for our businesses in those markets but also in Asia to which we are exposed very significantly. On a more cautious site there is a geopolitical uncertainty, we’re aware of what’s going on in the world and there is also the transition to a less accommodative world particularly in the U.S. and we remain cautious regarding the potential unintended consequences of that and you see us holding on to a number of reserves and being very strongly capitalized because we’re always keeping an eye on credit and credit risk in…

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Yes I mean in terms of the, I’m not going to give you a running commentary on the effect in this sort of hedging or otherwise. There are many moving parts. We only hedge part of the remittances. It's not everything. We only hedge the sizeable ones, the timing and the size will vary depending on the type of instruments that are available to us. I mean indeed when we know that we have outflows in currencies we factor that into our cash planning. So beyond really, the reason for raising is that I didn’t wanted to give you the impression that the cash that you’ve seen from Asia in the second half of last year indeed in the first half of this year was after, if you like absorbing the currency effect that is come through and it will come through as we go from the second half -- in the second half of the year and beyond. There are no kind of one offs outside that, we have said before that we’re not looking to increase the remittance ratios if I go deeper into the internal remittance ratios and we have guided you in the past that remittances from the business will grow in sync with free surplus generation. We like the buffers that we have in those businesses; we have always said that in the past that we will retain enough capital not only so that we can direct it to the most profitable opportunities and there are many in these countries as you’ve seen in the results but also for uncertainty and as you’ve seen the overall, even though free surplus stock has increased. The coverage ratio has remained broadly unchanged, reflecting that the book is growing all the time. Jon Hocking – Morgan Stanley: Any hedging in place now or all the hedges have rolled off pretty much in the first half?

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Well it's the rolling thing, so as we go into, as we look into the second half of this year and then into next year we have started that process but no the -- as I said up to 12 months that we hedge and the drop in currencies came around this time last year.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

We really hedge more from budget reasons than for economic reasons. And it's something that predates all of us. When I arrived at the group it was already the policy and we have kept it because it's just for to cover expenses but fundamentally we continue to believe those currencies will appreciate. We don’t want to hedge too long into the future because we think that is economically wrong and also as Nic said a lot of those countries don’t have forward markets anyway. We told them you cannot hedge. I would say at one level you’re going to have to trust us on that. We focus on the free surplus generation that’s really the hard data that you need to look at, you know is the business generating the cash after that where we leave the cash, this is why we’re always reluctant to give you short term remittance target. You have seen all the remittance target, always cumulative. But we’re very confident that over 4 or 5 years we’re going to get X amount of cash, within that it's a bit of a management call. Sometimes you remit in this place because you know you have an outlay (Technical Difficulty) (indiscernible) there is no economic value attached to that and we will manage it to optimize of course ultimately we will value in pound but it's hard to tell you in H2, ’15 we’re going to extract this much because currencies they move in the way, we say okay, fine we’re going to hedge the Korean one because there is a deep liquid market in forwards. But frankly we’re just going to wait in Vietnam because the currency is weak and you know we should probably extract it next year. So those factors are at play. But the key take away is the dividend is not at risk, okay, it's so well covered, so deeply covered. We have so much cash on the center and so much capital and that’s why really I wanted to be in that position where you don’t end up doing silly things that are economically silly for cosmetic reasons. That very destructive for our shareholder we have enough capital and we are very comfortable, we can meet all our obligations and on top of that do a kind of economic optimization. So I wouldn’t worry too much given as Nic said, there wasn’t enough material at the scale of the group. You have 10 million here 20 million there. It's not worth if you wish to show a big optical number in H2, I think destroying economic value because that’s what you will be doing. The second was, is that okay Jon? Pricing changes in the U.S. with the S&P level?

Mike Wells

Analyst

Yes John, we did in April, Q2 we did a commission reduction and we did suspension of certain withdrawal and debt benefits. So we have the ability to turn those back on if we choose to but the net effect of those, the benefit piece was affected by 31% of the sales going into that cycle. So you’re not seeing a dollar per dollar reduction in sales but just to give you an idea the magnitude of the change.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Yes and the other thing I should mention in addition is that we’re also using the current environment to as we have always been to hedge deeper into the tail. So we’re really very, very low activity, very high equity market levels, that’s the good time, that’s the right time to go bit further and dig deeper into the tail. That’s a good move to make at this point. Solvency II, an update, look, we are developing our internal model, I think it's progressing well. On the equivalence we’re probably more optimistic than we have ever been, provisional equivalence with the U.S. looks very likely so we don’t see any real reason to worry there. The other development I should probably mention I know other companies have commented on it, that is the BCR. If you think of the G-SII, it's positive development that’s also moving well. I think the regulators have done what they've said. In meetings they have told us that it would be set according to what it's called, the basic capital requirements are relatively lower and everything we have seen their makes us feel quite relaxed about it. Blair Stewart – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Starting with three questions, starting with the U.S., I think every time you report you say that the spread I think was starting to come under pressure, the spread will come under pressure and it never seems to, so just a update on that it has been relatively good again. Secondly in Asia, was a Singapore a little disappointing? Wasn’t it one of your double digit markets I don’t think. And I guess one for Jackie maybe a few words on the new product initiatives you seem to be expanding 100 million or so over the next couple of years, is it a lack of platform, a drawback when you think about drawn down et cetera? Thank you.

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

You will see that the size of our general account isn't increasing. I will just give you a little more color. So what’s happening is you’ve new business coming in and it's mostly from the fixed annuity option that is offered as part of the VA offering and no that the crediting rate is 1%, okay. So yes we’re investing it in new securities that have lower yield but the crediting rate is, so as you put more of that onto the book and some of the older stuff moves on you will see the average crediting rate and the average yields come down and roughly that explains the statement I made earlier. We have -- we did do some, we did enter into some swaps back in 2010 and candidly the benefit that we got from those has lasted longer than we were expanded, not expected not at least because interest rates have stayed lower for longer which is why that is coming through. Interest rates will normalize at some stage so I will stick my guidance for you that this thing will come down, it will head towards the 200 basis point level, this is typically where we have operated and so that’s where we are headed and my prediction of getting there by around now has not proved right but I didn’t think interest rates would stay as low as they have done.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Barry were you disappointed by Singapore?

Barry Stowe

Analyst

No, not really. I mean obviously you know 11% growth is not as good as 25 or 30 and that’s always more fun than easier to explain but the reality is in most of the markets across the region we’re experiencing headwinds of different kinds and Singapore is not immune to that. So at 11% growth we gained share in Singapore I think that’s probably the key takeaway. Bank came off a little bit, the Maybank relationship that we've had there, the sort of deals with the middle markets one of our smaller relationships, the good relationship. They are taking that in-house, they are bringing Etiqa which is their own company from Malaysia into Singapore and they have made the decision so to take that in-house that impacts us a little bit. It's not huge but it impacts us a little bit. But we’re making up for that really in the near term with agency where we have actually recruited some additional agents, some experienced agents which is unusual in Singapore you usually don’t see a lot of agency growth. You just try to focus remaining highly productive and it is already a highly productive agency force. But even having said that, in addition to growing the scale we also improved the productivity by about 5% so and I think it's a good result.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Well thanks for flagging that note, we’re losing some distribution in Singapore. How can I say this, there is two sides of every coin. I think our success and how transparent we’re about it, it does attract a lot of attention sometimes unwanted. So we are losing SingPost --

Mike Wells

Analyst

Which was quite small and then we made that --

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

But we’re happy to lose it because you will never see us chasing volume, see us chasing value not volume and at a price at which it's went (multiple speakers) I’m pleased we’re losing it, it's fine and I wish good luck to the new operators and when you see us losing bancassurance volume, it's for value reasons. So we’re losing SingPost, Maybank as we said we’re --

Barry Stowe

Analyst

Maybank we’re taking it in half so --

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

So basically, the thing in Singapore, you've got very good market statistics. Market went up 1.4%. So 11% -- Barry was being modest, in the market that went up 1% is very good and within that agency went up 21%.

Barry Stowe

Analyst

We’re still number one in Linked [ph] we're still number one in PruShield, or health shield products so that’s actually quite a strong performance.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

The pressure is on the banking. It's very good, volatility -- we reach the uncertainty -- Singapore has an exquisite strategy of having a better greater than one in regional economies of course when there is a bump they get hit.

Barry Stowe

Analyst

And it's also just one other point, a lot of our competitors are driving most of their growth, that’s on universal life to high net worth customers. A lot of those customers come from Indonesia, okay so the Indonesia play what’s happening there plays directly into what happens in the high worth space.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

So the actually the performance is quite strong and we’re under pressure in bank that’s why we’re very pleased to have SCB where we can work in quality for 15 years. We have got 15 years, we have done that trial, we have got 10 years UOB. Other relationships I think will be transacted because some people are so desperate to show Asian growth but they will literally will pay any price for any Asian volume and we have a big enough platform but we’re just not willing to do that. So from time to time someone comes us to and says pay five times and I say look, we have to stand here and explain to you why in market A or B the -- we went backwards. There is a bank story embedded in these numbers and really have limited time. We have slides of that too and we haven't put them but there is some pressure on the banking side, we lost distribution in the Philippines. Some -- we had questions, HSBC, basically closed down and they stopped selling that’s what explains the number and there is some pressure from Citi. That’s why we’re so happy that our bank distribution is mostly long term deals where we have really a long term partner to work with.

Jackie Hunt

Analyst

So when we talk about the moderation of the cash remittances to the group to the tune of up to around 50 million per annum, it's actually a very broad based range of products and propositions and in fact some of our core systems that we’re investing in. The ones we have been vocal about, we have talked about it in the past PruFund ISA; flexible drawdown products getting onto external platforms I should say the platform solution we think is critical but actually it's single digit millions in terms of its investments. So it's pretty modest. And then also just broadening sort of our digital capabilities, we have almost no way in which customers can interact with us on a digital basis and some new business strain. So I think it is the mix of a very wide range of potential solutions, longevity solutions. We think annuities will remain a suitable product for many customers as we go forward into 2015. They are likely probably to buy later in their lives but actually many will still be looking for some sort of longevity protection. So it's really looking at the opportunities that the budget has given us and we think actually the underlying direction of traveler is very positive for the UK business because we think releasing the need on the compulsory annuitization will encourage people to save more and I think that creates opportunities for us and it's broad-based in its nature.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

And I think there was a question on platform, he is not an platform -- an issue.

Jackie Hunt

Analyst

Yes so I talked in December about my view on platforms. If you look at money, it's moving on to platforms, it's the way our customers want to deal with is, it's the way in which our advisors want to deal with us. I don’t think we necessarily need to own a platform, we need to have technology that can and products that can work on various solutions. I think the line is blurring between platforms for example in some of the policy admin systems. So I think directionally moving into digitally enabled world is important for us, it's part of this underlying investment but it's not in the kind of way in which we might have talked about this sort of 3 or 4 years ago. I think it's just more blurred sort of environment now. Andy Hughes – Exane BNP Paribas: First question is on the U.S. on the kind of the provision you’ve made there. Presumably you have given us the U.S. it's not too rude to ask how much the fine is likely to be, rather than whether you will have the fine. Presumably you’re not the first to make this kind of error, so have other people who have done this before have been fined for this? And it's roughly how can we estimate what range it might be? And second question on Indonesia, I’m a bit confused with the message on Asia that it's very robust and regular premium and therefore not subject to the economy but then in Indonesia we’re their long term investment decisions is that fall off, is going back to the full year results when we said when obviously the election was then the -- concerns about election at that stage. I think we said in March that the Asian sales were up 19% year-on-year. So I’m just kind of workout what’s happened in terms of election of since March time when things appeared to be that worst. Thank you.

Mike Wells

Analyst

I will give some color around the Curian issue, so through an internal review we found that certain fees that we’re collecting around the wrap fee portion of Curian probably aren’t compliant with ERISA. So we self-reported to the regulators; that's the all the U.S. regulators and the PRA, we sort of external sourced investigation to go through the entire process to make sure that both Curian and Jackson’s funds and platforms were reviewed. There is no -- we were almost complete with that problem and there is no suggestion of any intentional wrong doing. To your point on fees there is, the issue seemed to be around ERISA which (indiscernible) Department of Labor which generally charges a percentage tax and we have yet to -- we talk to them every week to the process but we have yet to get to a point with them where we’re discussing those levels and so beyond that given we’re engaged with the regulators on it I don’t really have much more I can tell you. We think the provision that we have put is what we estimate the effect to be and by year-end we will have all the client. Any fees that were collected it will be related to the clients plus the tax implications by year-end. And that system works and is in place now. So again nothing to do with the main Jackson business.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

The next one was Indonesia, can we just explain better what’s happened here?

Barry Stowe

Analyst

So the reason that we’re flat and everyone else in Indonesia is down most by double digit some pretty significant double digit drop sis because of the resilience of our agency force. So the agency force is stable I think Tidjane alluded to in his presentation, you know recruitment continues, number of active agents is up about 4% in the first half, case sizes are stable but the number of cases per active is down slightly. And so again what you’re seeing is not the people who are buying less, what you’re really seeing is that people are delaying and one of the reasons they are delaying is because we also alluded to the fact that interest rates have been moved up. Government took the smart decision to do the right thing which is in some respect kind of painful but they did it and so you’ve seen a corresponding increase in deposit rates so what customers are doing in an environment where there is some an uncertainty and I will come back to that point in just a second. They have a choice to say, okay I’ve got a $1000 I am either going to agree to give you a $1000 a year for the next 20 years or maybe I will put the $1000 in bank at a pretty high interest rate and with three months and see what’s happening and that’s affectively what’s happening. We have seen it happen before in markets where interest rates go up. It particularly hits the bancassurance players, because deposits are now so attractive that you have seen our competitors who are heavily relied upon on bank distribution which we’re not in Indonesia. You’ve seen their results, really crater. Again, I suspect that will continue in the short term until things stabilize.…

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

I think that’s exactly right. Q3, started very much like the rest of the year; no fireworks. And the upside is in Q4, really. When the president is inaugurated in October 25 then it will be a much clearer horizon. We can take probably one more question, I think we’re over time already. Oliver Steel – Deutsche Bank: Three questions if I’m allowed, the first is just going back to the U.S. pre-pricing and sort of changing of terms. I mean normally there is a bit of lag effect where volume actually even sometimes goes up after you've changed that. So I was wondering if you could quantify that and perhaps give us some easy guidance looking forward into the second half. Secondly, on the UK, the extra 50 million a year or rather the reduced 50 million a year of cash remittance, just so that it's clear how does that sort of breakdown into say the IFRS effect versus cash, I suppose how much is sort of new business strain and capital strain rather than just go to straight cost and then the third thing is the U.S. remittance certainly surprised me on the upside. Is that just normal remittance or is there something behind that and perhaps I suppose linked to my question, I thought you were looking to make bolt-on acquisitions in the States, and yet you do seem to have raised remittance quite strongly.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

U.S. repricing, more detail how it's going to pay out in terms of volume.

Mike Wells

Analyst

So Oliver I think one of the competence is now that the U.S. carriers have to have including us is you’ve this balance when you’re repricing you product between giving the advisors notice to not surprise them when they have trades and process and meetings with those clients. Again it's typically 3 or 4 meetings with the consumer before they actually select the product. The more notice you give them, the more of a fire sale before the changes you get. The sooner you have to make the changes to get to the desired sales level you want. So it's very interesting relationship in the two. You reason you see the surge in sales with us and competitors after the changes is the 1035 pipeline. So the amount of exchanges from other VA contracts that come to us those can land anywhere from three days to weeks later and so we get this, you know a backup of business that’s processed and typically four weeks following. So it gives you impressed you had more sales after the change, you actually had them leading right up to the changes. Okay? So our intent is to do -- I gave you an idea of the scale of the business impacted by the changes in my earlier comments. I think we have a Group risk appetite and how much VA we want to write with living benefits. Obviously we’re the EA franchises and it's outside of that. We clearly have strong demand for products and every time I have been up here we talked about the product changes and we have made them all the way through the post-crisis every quarter now almost, the key is I think the core product is still really good and for the consumer it's still I think the best variable annuity contract a consumer can buy, both on performance in-line funds, control of funds and pricing. So that was what a commission change was a unique one for us, we have never done that before but again we’re trying to keep the consumer proposition right where it needs to be and I think if you talked to U.S. advisors when you go there, I think that’s the consistent view is it's the best product in the street. So you see it in the earnings growth -- these clients actually participate in the market on the way up consistent with the allocations to equities. So we have a lots of demand, we will continue to manage it to the levels that the plan wants -- the group and we have chosen to bring them in at.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

Absolutely. Oliver, IFRS and cash impact of lower remittance.

Jackie Hunt

Analyst

Yes, Oliver, it's not a straightforward question as to how's the cash going to play through into IFRS. I mean if we talk first about the product initiatives, there are split between those that will be written into the with-profits fund. Clearly, anything that benefits the with-profit spend, you know they compensate for some of the investment costs associated with that and then there will be an element of new business strain and new business strain isn't one for one and to IFRS results either. Very roughly I would say if you’re looking first half of this year and new business strain was up about 22 million, roughly double it and this isn't forecast, so let’s say you could come into the sort of 40 million and then sort of 10 million – 15 million development, it kind of feels of the right sort of order. But clearly we haven't, many of these things are at an early stage of development. We haven't really gone through all of the sort of process yet.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

We discussed very much whether to give you a number, or not. We're giving you one, so, you understand, this is not material. Yes there is investment but on the scale of the Group and the commitment we have it doesn’t change anything, it doesn’t move the needle but it will have a very beneficial impact on the UK business we hope. Why it's such a bigger returns when you’ve bolt-ons, I will take this one. We don’t store cash in the U.S. if you wish in the expectation of bolt-ons. The way we manage the Group is that we remit what we can. There is no major friction at that level, the business is left with an RBC of 427, after paying the dividend, so it's really comfortable. Happy to have it at the center. Frankly it's not exceptional it is justified given the size of the business, the size of the upside and the scale of profits generated, it's very, very strong. We’re just pleased, this is playing out positively. It's a very, very strong dividend. So thank you again. We'd like to have the cash at the center. I always listen to my IR. We think we should take one more question. So one more and then we will stop.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just two questions, one on U.S. fixed annuities, can you talk about your appetites to write fixed annuities, should U.S. rates rise over the next 2 to 3 years and the second question is back on the UK. In the UK the payback period increased to 5 years, is that driven by bulk annuities and can you tell us how should we think about that going forward?

Mike Wells

Analyst

Fixed annuities and the fixed index annuities particularly we really like I think the both require both higher rates and better spreads. It's not just the rate increase you actually need to be able to generate some yield above treasuries that you’re happy with the risk you’re getting. So in a more normal, if both of those two were more normal yes we have a definite appetite. The FIAs we talked before, is a natural offset to the withdrawal benefit and the VA but it is -- if you look in the documents you’ve got that we’re shorter on duration, higher on credit. We keep getting conservative with the portfolio right now. It just doesn’t feel like the time to -- I know we have some competitors out there selling a lot of stuff but it just doesn’t feel like the time to be pushing that part of the product. My biggest concern whether it’s those rates go up those clients will need to surrender and will be able to afford to surrender to get in newer higher yielding products if you think of a material shift in rates couple 100 basis points. So this won't be a sticky vintage in my view.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

I agree. Yes. The UK payback periods, Nic, or Jackie?

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

It's an average of course depending on the link to the products that we’re writing. The major change has be the fact that we have written less retail annuity. Retail annuity had a positive strain so it was almost an instant payback in that sense, so the fact that we’re writing less of it means that the average is longer. Your question on bulks, when we say that we only write bulks on attractive economies, we don’t only look at the IRR, but we also look at the payback. So it isn't bulks, there is no relaxation or change if you like in the payback pattern that we’re expecting from the bulks that we’re writing. It's purely the effect of mix and retail annuity is just coming back a little.

Tidjane Thiam

Operator

That’s a really important comment because the bulks, we’re focused on the high end of the market if you wish because really when we talk about capital allocation and the competition for capital inside the Group it is real. The only way Jackie can hold her head up is if everybody thinks that I’m not giving her what you say an easy pass literally or giving her pass on capital when she is writing -- they're quite merciless in their competition. So, basically, the capital that goes into the UK has a good risk-adjusted return, otherwise she doesn’t get it. So really, the bulks we write, we're actually very proud of. We can look anybody in the eye and say this is good value and that’s money I’m happy not to invest in Asia, or not to invest in the U.S. because if it wasn’t the case she would just would have done it, we don’t do things for volume reasons or cosmetic reasons. So the deal she has done with the team actually are really excellent. So you should not expect deterioration of any of our core metrics because we are starting to reimburse, other than the strain and gave you the magnitude in H1, 22 million. It is not going to deteriorate anything. So with that, thank you for your patience. And I have -- they are all pointing at the screen there, we’re going to have a slide, there you go, because you’re cordially invited to join us in Asia on December 1st, it will be a two part trip Singapore where the main event will be and we will show you showcase of the business and talk about other parts of the Group and then a special for Jakarta. For those who want, that will be optional. But we will lift the lid on Indonesia for those who have never seen it or if who want to see it again and it's always a very worthwhile trip. So, again, thank you for your patience and have a good holiday for those who are going on holiday, we certainly are in a few days. Thank you.